<p><strong>英偉達</strong>(NVDA 3.52%) 是全球最有價值的公司，估值達到 4.1 萬億美元。近年來，其表現令人矚目，英偉達在最近幾個季度仍然實現了超過 50% 的收入增長——這在科技巨頭中被視為放緩。</p>
<p>但當一隻股票的估值達到如此顯著的水平時，這也意味着預期很高。如果公司未能達到這些預期，股票可能會面臨嚴重的調整風險，尤其是那些已經獲得豐厚收益的投資者可能會尋找任何跡象，表明股票可能接近峯值，因為這可能是兑現收益、鎖定儘可能大收益的機會。</p>
<p>英偉達股票的問題在於，如果科技行業出現任何顯著的逆風或放緩，它可能是首批遭受大幅下跌的公司之一。這是因為其收入並沒有那麼多樣化。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzMzMjQvcGVyc29uLXdpdGgtYS1oZWFkYWNoZS10cmFja2luZy1jaGFydHMuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="467" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzMzMjQvcGVyc29uLXdpdGgtYS1oZWFkYWNoZS10cmFja2luZy1jaGFydHMuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>英偉達絕大多數收入來自僅六個客户</h2>
<p>英偉達的收入來源於多個領域，包括汽車、遊戲、專業可視化和數據中心。但目前其主要收入來源是數據中心業務，該業務在其最近一個季度（截至 7 月 27 日）中佔據了 467 億美元收入的 88%。</p>
<p>然而，最令人擔憂的是該領域的客户集中風險。英偉達的 AI 芯片並不便宜，主要是大型科技公司能夠承擔顯著的支出。公司會披露當客户佔據收入的較大份額時的情況，英偉達表示，其兩個最大客户，稱為客户 A 和客户 B，分別佔據了上個季度 23% 和 16% 的收入。</p>
<p>但這還不是全部。它還指出，有四個直接客户各自佔其季度銷售的 10% 或更多。總的來説，約 85% 的收入來自僅僅 <em>六個客户</em>。雖然沒有提到具體名稱，但我猜測其主要客户是大型超大規模雲服務商，其中大多數可能屬於 “七大巨頭”。</p>
<p>問題很明顯：如果 AI 相關支出放緩，英偉達的增長率可能會迅速崩潰，因為它僅依賴於六個客户。</p>
<h2>英偉達的估值已經下降，但仍然很高</h2>
<p>目前，英偉達的股票交易價格與收益比超過 50。儘管這一溢價在過去一年中有所下降，並且低於其五年平均水平，但對於這隻 AI 股票來説，這仍然是一個高價。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3ac927639b1afc5a09a491a9b1db6998.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3ac927639b1afc5a09a491a9b1db6998.png"/></p>
<p>數據來源：YCharts。</p>
<p>英偉達的銷售和利潤在上個季度均增長超過 50%，但這並不足以給股票帶來太大提振。在過去一個月中，股票的價值下降了近 6%（截至 9 月 17 日）。考慮到與整體經濟相關的風險、其脆弱性以及未來 AI 支出放緩的潛在可能性，投資者可能會對將股票的價格定得比現在更高感到牴觸。</p>
<h2>英偉達股票仍然是一個好買入嗎？</h2>
<p>在短短五年內，英偉達為投資者創造了近 1300% 的改變人生的回報。但現在其市值約為 4.3 萬億美元，不可避免地出現了它還能漲多高的問題。它不再追趕其他股票——它已經成為全球最有價值的公司。</p>
<p>我認為英偉達的業務非常出色，利潤率令人印象深刻，未來由於 AI 可能還有更大的增長空間。如果你打算至少持有這隻股票五年，那麼英偉達仍然是一個不錯的投資，但我建議你要做好至少在不久的將來出現適度回調的準備。</p>

英偉達

2 倍做多英偉達 ETF - GraniteShares

南方兩倍做多英偉達

南方兩倍做空英偉達

英偉達期權收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

1 倍做空英偉達 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

半導體 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>英偉達的市值為 4.1 萬億美元，由於客户集中度高，面臨重大風險，85% 的收入來自僅六個客户。公司的數據中心業務是其主要收入來源，容易受到人工智能支出潛在放緩的影響。儘管增長令人印象深刻，英偉達的股票市盈率超過 50，近期已下跌近 6%。雖然為投資者帶來了可觀的回報，但建議保持謹慎，因為該股票在不久的將來可能會經歷適度回調</p>

<p><strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 3.52%) is the most valuable company in the world, with a valuation of $4.1 trillion. Its performance in recent years has been remarkable, with Nvidia still generating over 50% revenue growth in recent quarters -- and that's considered a slowdown for the tech giant.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>英偉達</strong>(NVDA 3.52%) 是全球最有價值的公司，估值達到 4.1 萬億美元。近年來，其表現令人矚目，英偉達在最近幾個季度仍然實現了超過 50% 的收入增長——這在科技巨頭中被視為放緩。</p>
</div><p>But when a stock's valuation reaches such significant proportions, that also means expectations are high. If the company falls short of them, the stock could be vulnerable to a serious correction, especially as investors who are up big may be looking for any signs that it may be approaching a peak, as that could be an opportunity to cash out and lock in as large of a gain as possible.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但當一隻股票的估值達到如此顯著的水平時，這也意味着預期很高。如果公司未能達到這些預期，股票可能會面臨嚴重的調整風險，尤其是那些已經獲得豐厚收益的投資者可能會尋找任何跡象，表明股票可能接近峯值，因為這可能是兑現收益、鎖定儘可能大收益的機會。</p>
</div><p>The problem with Nvidia's stock is that if there are any notable headwinds or slowdowns in the tech sector, then it could be among the first to endure a big drop in value. And that's because its revenue isn't all that diversified.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達股票的問題在於，如果科技行業出現任何顯著的逆風或放緩，它可能是首批遭受大幅下跌的公司之一。這是因為其收入並沒有那麼多樣化。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzMzMjQvcGVyc29uLXdpdGgtYS1oZWFkYWNoZS10cmFja2luZy1jaGFydHMuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F833324%2Fperson-with-a-headache-tracking-charts.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>The vast majority of Nvidia's revenue comes from just six customers</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英偉達絕大多數收入來自僅六個客户</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia has multiple segments that it generates revenue from, including automotive, gaming, professional visualization, and data centers. But its main income source right now is its data center business, which accounted for 88% of the $46.7 billion in revenue it posted in its most recent period, which ended on July 27.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達的收入來源於多個領域，包括汽車、遊戲、專業可視化和數據中心。但目前其主要收入來源是數據中心業務，該業務在其最近一個季度（截至 7 月 27 日）中佔據了 467 億美元收入的 88%。</p>
</div><p>What's most concerning, however, is the customer concentration risk in that segment. Nvidia's AI chips aren't cheap, and it's primarily the big tech companies that can afford to spend significantly on them. Companies disclose when customers account for a big slice of revenue, and Nvidia says that its two largest customers, which it refers to as just Customer A and Customer B, represented 23% and 16% of revenue for the past quarter, respectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，最令人擔憂的是該領域的客户集中風險。英偉達的 AI 芯片並不便宜，主要是大型科技公司能夠承擔顯著的支出。公司會披露當客户佔據收入的較大份額時的情況，英偉達表示，其兩個最大客户，稱為客户 A 和客户 B，分別佔據了上個季度 23% 和 16% 的收入。</p>
</div><p>But that's not all. It also noted that there were four direct customers that each made up 10% or more of its quarterly sales. In total, approximately 85% of its revenue was attributable to just <em>six customers</em>. While specific names weren't mentioned, my guess is that its key customers are big hyperscalers, with the majority of them potentially among the &#34;Magnificent Seven.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但這還不是全部。它還指出，有四個直接客户各自佔其季度銷售的 10% 或更多。總的來説，約 85% 的收入來自僅僅 <em>六個客户</em>。雖然沒有提到具體名稱，但我猜測其主要客户是大型超大規模雲服務商，其中大多數可能屬於 “七大巨頭”。</p>
</div><p>The problem is clear: if there's a slowdown in AI-related spending, Nvidia's growth rate could quickly unravel given its exposure to just six customers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>問題很明顯：如果 AI 相關支出放緩，英偉達的增長率可能會迅速崩潰，因為它僅依賴於六個客户。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia's valuation has come down, but it remains high</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英偉達的估值已經下降，但仍然很高</h2>
</div><p>Currently, Nvidia's stock trades at a price-to-earnings multiple of more than 50. Although that premium has come down over the past year and it's below its five-year average, that's still a high price to be paying for the AI stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，英偉達的股票交易價格與收益比超過 50。儘管這一溢價在過去一年中有所下降，並且低於其五年平均水平，但對於這隻 AI 股票來説，這仍然是一個高價。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3ac927639b1afc5a09a491a9b1db6998.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3ac927639b1afc5a09a491a9b1db6998.png"/></p>
<p>Data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源：YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Both Nvidia's sales and profits were up over 50% last quarter, but that hasn't been enough to give the stock much of a boost. Over the past month, the stock has declined in value by nearly 6% (as of Sept. 17). There could be some resistance from investors to price the stock much higher than where it is right now, given the risks related to the overall economy, its fragility, and the potential for a slowdown in AI spending in the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達的銷售和利潤在上個季度均增長超過 50%，但這並不足以給股票帶來太大提振。在過去一個月中，股票的價值下降了近 6%（截至 9 月 17 日）。考慮到與整體經濟相關的風險、其脆弱性以及未來 AI 支出放緩的潛在可能性，投資者可能會對將股票的價格定得比現在更高感到牴觸。</p>
</div><h2>Is Nvidia stock still a good buy?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英偉達股票仍然是一個好買入嗎？</h2>
</div><p>In just five years, Nvidia has generated life-changing returns of nearly 1,300% for investors. But now with its market cap up around $4.3 trillion, the inevitable questions come up of how much higher it can possibly go. It's no longer chasing any other stock -- it has already become the most valuable company in the world.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在短短五年內，英偉達為投資者創造了近 1300% 的改變人生的回報。但現在其市值約為 4.3 萬億美元，不可避免地出現了它還能漲多高的問題。它不再追趕其他股票——它已經成為全球最有價值的公司。</p>
</div><p>I think Nvidia has a fantastic business, and it commands impressive margins, and there's potentially much more growth out there in the long run due to AI. If you're looking at holding onto the stock for at least the next five years, then Nvidia can still be a good investment, but I would suggest bracing for the possibility of at least a modest pullback in the near future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我認為英偉達的業務非常出色，利潤率令人印象深刻，未來由於 AI 可能還有更大的增長空間。如果你打算至少持有這隻股票五年，那麼英偉達仍然是一個不錯的投資，但我建議你要做好至少在不久的將來出現適度回調的準備。</p>
</div>

This Is Far and Away Nvidia's Biggest Risk

- Nvidia 的市值達到 4.1 萬億美元，近期收入增長超過 50%。  
- 其主要收入來源於數據中心業務，客户集中度高，六大客户貢獻 85% 收入。  
- 儘管過去五年回報近 1300%，但未來增長面臨 AI 支出放緩風險。  

這無疑是英偉達面臨的最大風險