<p>市場早已預期美聯儲將降息四分之一個百分點，但接下來的問題仍然是它的下一步行動是什麼以及何時進行。或者説，債券市場假設它的下一步行動將是什麼？對利率鴿派來説，好消息是，市場至少在最初是定價未來將降低利率，這對像 <strong>惠而浦</strong>(WHR -2.07%) 和 <strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA 1.70%) 這樣的利率敏感股票來説是個好消息。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzM5OTYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTcwMzcxODAyNy0xMjAweDgwMC01YjJkZjc5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzM5OTYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTcwMzcxODAyNy0xMjAweDgwMC01YjJkZjc5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>最新動態對投資者的意義</h2>
<p>美聯儲的聯邦公開市場委員會 (FOMC) 以 11 票贊成、1 票反對通過了降息提案，其中一名反對者投票支持更激進的 0.5 個百分點降息。降息伴隨着債券市場基準 10 年期國債收益率的下降和 30 年期抵押貸款利率的降低。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/481b3b1d1d8bc52f8ea1cc5f7a0ce09f.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="380" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/481b3b1d1d8bc52f8ea1cc5f7a0ce09f.png"/></p>
<p>數據來源：YCharts。</p>
<p>此外，債券市場正在定價更多的短期降息。這可以通過檢查 10 年期、2 年期、1 年期和 6 個月期國債利率來推斷。在正常情況下，10 年期利率應該是最高的，而 6 個月期利率應該是最低的；這反映了由於可能的利率上升而與長期債券相關的更大風險。</p>
<p>確實，10 年期收益率是最高的；然而，請注意，6 個月期利率高於 1 年期和 2 年期利率。這意味着市場預計利率將在一到兩年內下降。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/347e361b62a8763fc123d1bddc41afb5.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="380" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/347e361b62a8763fc123d1bddc41afb5.png"/></p>
<p>數據來源：YCharts。</p>
<h2>對惠而浦的影響</h2>
<p>較低的抵押貸款利率往往有助於提高借款人的住房可負擔性，這可能導致更多的房屋銷售和新房建設。更多的住房和銷售對像惠而浦這樣的家電製造商來説是個利好。個人在出售房屋之前和購買新房之後通常會進行房屋翻新。因此，家電的高利潤可支配需求往往跟隨現有房屋銷售。</p>
<p>惠而浦今年因可支配需求疲軟而苦苦掙扎，而改善的美國住房市場無疑將有助於提升銷售。此外，亞洲競爭對手在關税實施前已提前進入市場，從而創造了一個高度競爭的價格環境。較低的利率可能會刺激需求，並幫助清理市場上過剩的家電庫存。</p>
<p>在當前的關税環境下，惠而浦的競爭力（該公司在美國銷售的約 80% 是在美國生產的）未來可能會顯著改善，並且它將成為特朗普政府關税政策的主要受益者。</p>
<h2>特斯拉也可能成為贏家</h2>
<p>住房對利率敏感，汽車貸款購買同樣如此。特斯拉銷售下滑的關注點大多集中在首席執行官埃隆·馬斯克的政治參與和/或該汽車製造商的老舊車型陣容上。現實是，儘管特斯拉的 Model Y 在 2025 年的銷售下滑，但其 Model 3 的銷售卻在強勁增長，而 Model 3 恰好是特斯拉價格最低的車型，這並非巧合。</p>
<p>特斯拉在 SUV（Model Y）市場失去市場份額也並非巧合，因為像預算型的雪佛蘭 Equinox SUV 等可負擔競爭對手的銷售迅速增長。相比之下，特斯拉在 2025 年決定對 Model Y 進行更新，並推出了更昂貴的車型。</p>
<p>儘管如此，特斯拉已經在制定應對計劃，並計劃在不久的將來推出一款低成本車型。聯邦電動車税收抵免將在九月底到期，這將對市場造成影響。不過，較低的利率將抵消這一影響，並推動特斯拉推出低成本車型，包括一款低成本的 Y 車型，以及可能在 2026 年推出的新款經濟型汽車（Model 2？）。</p>
<p>此外，通過降低利率使電動車更具可負擔性將刺激銷售，因為電動車的初始成本往往相對較高，但其運行成本相對較低。因此，較低的利率環境可能會在 2026 年推動特斯拉的電動車銷售，因為它繼續開發其機器人出租車的推廣。</p>

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - Tradr

XI二南特斯-U

南方兩倍做多特斯拉

南方兩倍做空特斯拉

2 倍做多 TSLA ETF - GraniteShares

<p>美聯儲已將利率下調了四分之一個百分點，預計未來還會進一步降息。這對像惠而浦和特斯拉這樣的利率敏感型股票是個利好。較低的抵押貸款利率可能會促進住房銷售，從而惠及面臨需求疲軟的惠而浦。特斯拉也可能受益於較低的利率，這可能提高電動車的可負擔性，從而增加其低價車型的銷量。債券市場顯示出降息的趨勢，這可能在不久的將來支持這兩家公司</p>

<p>The market has long anticipated the Federal Reserve's quarter-point rate cut, but as ever, the next question is what and when its next move will be. Or rather, what is the bond market assuming its next move will be? The good news for interest rate doves is that the market, initially at least, is pricing in lower interest rates on the way, which would be great news for interest-rate-sensitive stocks like <strong>Whirlpool</strong>(WHR -2.07%) and <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA 1.70%).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場早已預期美聯儲將降息四分之一個百分點，但接下來的問題仍然是它的下一步行動是什麼以及何時進行。或者説，債券市場假設它的下一步行動將是什麼？對利率鴿派來説，好消息是，市場至少在最初是定價未來將降低利率，這對像 <strong>惠而浦</strong>(WHR -2.07%) 和 <strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA 1.70%) 這樣的利率敏感股票來説是個好消息。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzM5OTYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTcwMzcxODAyNy0xMjAweDgwMC01YjJkZjc5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F833996%2Fgettyimages-1703718027-1200x800-5b2df79.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>What the latest moves mean for investors</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>最新動態對投資者的意義</h2>
</div><p>The Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 11-1 in favor of the rate cut, with one dissenting member voting for a more aggressive 0.5-percentage-point cut. The rate cut was accompanied by a decline in bond market benchmark 10-year Treasury yields and a decrease in 30-year mortgage rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲的聯邦公開市場委員會 (FOMC) 以 11 票贊成、1 票反對通過了降息提案，其中一名反對者投票支持更激進的 0.5 個百分點降息。降息伴隨着債券市場基準 10 年期國債收益率的下降和 30 年期抵押貸款利率的降低。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/481b3b1d1d8bc52f8ea1cc5f7a0ce09f.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/481b3b1d1d8bc52f8ea1cc5f7a0ce09f.png"/></p>
<p>Data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源：YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Moreover, the bond markets are pricing in more near-term rate cuts. This is implied by examining the 10-year, two-year, one-year, and six-month Treasury rates. In normal circumstances, the 10-year rate should be the highest, and the six-month rate the lowest; this reflects the greater risk associated with longer-dated bonds due to a possible increase in interest rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，債券市場正在定價更多的短期降息。這可以通過檢查 10 年期、2 年期、1 年期和 6 個月期國債利率來推斷。在正常情況下，10 年期利率應該是最高的，而 6 個月期利率應該是最低的；這反映了由於可能的利率上升而與長期債券相關的更大風險。</p>
</div><p>Indeed, the 10-year yield is the highest; however, note that the six-month rate is higher than both the one-year and two-year rates. This implies that the market expects rates to go lower within one to two years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>確實，10 年期收益率是最高的；然而，請注意，6 個月期利率高於 1 年期和 2 年期利率。這意味着市場預計利率將在一到兩年內下降。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/347e361b62a8763fc123d1bddc41afb5.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/347e361b62a8763fc123d1bddc41afb5.png"/></p>
<p>Data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源：YCharts。</p>
</div><h2>What it means for Whirlpool</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>對惠而浦的影響</h2>
</div><p>Lower mortgage rates tend to help make housing more affordable for borrowers, which can lead to more home sales and new home construction. More housing and sales is a plus for domestic appliance makers like Whirlpool. Individuals often remodel their homes before selling and after buying a new one. As such, the higher-margin discretionary demand for household appliances tends to follow existing home sales.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>較低的抵押貸款利率往往有助於提高借款人的住房可負擔性，這可能導致更多的房屋銷售和新房建設。更多的住房和銷售對像惠而浦這樣的家電製造商來説是個利好。個人在出售房屋之前和購買新房之後通常會進行房屋翻新。因此，家電的高利潤可支配需求往往跟隨現有房屋銷售。</p>
</div><p>Whirlpool has struggled this year due to weak discretionary demand, and an improved U.S. housing market would definitely help boost sales. In addition, Asian competitors have preloaded the market ahead of tariff implementation, thereby creating a highly competitive price environment. Lower rates could boost demand and help clear the market's excess appliance inventory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>惠而浦今年因可支配需求疲軟而苦苦掙扎，而改善的美國住房市場無疑將有助於提升銷售。此外，亞洲競爭對手在關税實施前已提前進入市場，從而創造了一個高度競爭的價格環境。較低的利率可能會刺激需求，並幫助清理市場上過剩的家電庫存。</p>
</div><p>With the current tariff landscape in place, Whirlpool's competitiveness (the company makes roughly 80% of what it sells in the U.S. within the U.S.) is likely to improve significantly in the future, and it's set to be a big winner from the Trump administration tariffs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在當前的關税環境下，惠而浦的競爭力（該公司在美國銷售的約 80% 是在美國生產的）未來可能會顯著改善，並且它將成為特朗普政府關税政策的主要受益者。</p>
</div><h2>Tesla could also be a winner</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特斯拉也可能成為贏家</h2>
</div><p>Housing is interest rate sensitive, and so is buying a car on credit. Much of the attention on Tesla's falling sales has been focused on CEO Elon Musk's political involvement and/or the automaker's aging vehicle lineup. The reality is that while Tesla's Model Y sales have slumped in 2025, sales of its Model 3 are growing strongly, and it's not a coincidence that the Model 3 is Tesla's lowest-priced vehicle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>住房對利率敏感，汽車貸款購買同樣如此。特斯拉銷售下滑的關注點大多集中在首席執行官埃隆·馬斯克的政治參與和/或該汽車製造商的老舊車型陣容上。現實是，儘管特斯拉的 Model Y 在 2025 年的銷售下滑，但其 Model 3 的銷售卻在強勁增長，而 Model 3 恰好是特斯拉價格最低的車型，這並非巧合。</p>
</div><p>It's also not a coincidence that Tesla is losing market share in the SUV (Model Y) market, as affordable competitors like the budget-priced Chevrolet Equinox SUV have aggressively grown their sales. In contrast, Tesla decided to refresh the Model Y in 2025, and in doing so, released a more expensive model.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉在 SUV（Model Y）市場失去市場份額也並非巧合，因為像預算型的雪佛蘭 Equinox SUV 等可負擔競爭對手的銷售迅速增長。相比之下，特斯拉在 2025 年決定對 Model Y 進行更新，並推出了更昂貴的車型。</p>
</div><p>Still, Tesla is already making plans to react and is set to release a lower-cost model in the near future. The expiration of federal tax credits for EVs at the end of September will hurt the market. Still, lower interest rates would offset the impact and also boost Tesla's release of lower-cost models, including a lower-cost Y model, and possibly a new affordable car (Model 2?) in 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，特斯拉已經在制定應對計劃，並計劃在不久的將來推出一款低成本車型。聯邦電動車税收抵免將在九月底到期，這將對市場造成影響。不過，較低的利率將抵消這一影響，並推動特斯拉推出低成本車型，包括一款低成本的 Y 車型，以及可能在 2026 年推出的新款經濟型汽車（Model 2？）。</p>
</div><p>In addition, making EVs more affordable with lower interest rates would boost sales, as the initial cost of an EV tends to be relatively high, but its running costs are relatively low. As such, a lower interest rate environment could boost Tesla's EV sales in 2026 as it continues developing its robotaxi rollout.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，通過降低利率使電動車更具可負擔性將刺激銷售，因為電動車的初始成本往往相對較高，但其運行成本相對較低。因此，較低的利率環境可能會在 2026 年推動特斯拉的電動車銷售，因為它繼續開發其機器人出租車的推廣。</p>
</div>

Jerome Powell Just Cut Rates. Here Are Stocks That Could Soar.

- 美聯儲以 11-1 投票通過降息，市場預期未來將有更多降息。  
- 降低的抵押貸款利率將促進住房銷售，利好家電製造商如惠而浦。  
- 特斯拉在降息環境中也可能受益，計劃推出更低價車型以應對市場競爭。  

傑羅姆·鮑威爾剛剛宣佈降息。以下是可能上漲的股票