<p>8 月 14 日，監管文件顯示沃倫·巴菲特的伯克希爾·哈撒韋（Berkshire Hathaway）在美國房屋建築商萊納（Lennar）中累計持有約 8 億美元的股份。這些文件存在滯後，顯示伯克希爾截至 6 月 30 日的持倉情況。</p>
<p>可以肯定的是，自那時以來，伯克希爾對這隻建築股的表現感到滿意。從 6 月 30 日到 9 月 18 日，萊納的 <strong>總回報約為 21%</strong>。這段時間內，房屋建築股強勁反彈，SPDR S&amp;P 房屋建築商 ETF（XHB）上漲超過 16%。</p>
<p>對利率下降的預期提振了房屋建築股。</p>
<p>然而，9 月 18 日也是萊納自伯克希爾披露其持倉以來的首次重大考驗。該公司在市場收盤後公佈了 2025 年第三季度的財報，提供了住房市場健康狀況的最新指標。讓我們來分析一下結果，並獲得對該股票的最新看法。</p>
<h2>萊納因售價下滑幾乎削減 50% 的利潤</h2>
<p>在第三季度，萊納報告收入為 88 億美元，下降約 6.5%。這略微低於預期的 90 億美元，或僅下降 4.4%。在剔除其科技投資的公允價值變動後，萊納的調整後每股收益（EPS）為 2.00 美元。這比去年大幅下降 49%。此外，該數字也低於華爾街預期的 2.14 美元，下降幅度為 45%。</p>
<p>值得注意的是，儘管萊納交付了 21,584 套房屋，略高於 2024 年第三季度的交付量，但銷售和每股收益的大幅下降仍然發生。這部分是因為該公司提供了顯著的折扣，將其平均房屋售價降低了超過 9%，降至 383,000 美元。</p>
<p>這對萊納的毛利率造成了顯著影響，毛利率下降了 500 個基點，降至 17.5%。顯然，<strong>疲軟的住房需求</strong> 對萊納的收入和利潤造成了重大壓力。不過，利率下降是公司面臨的一個利好因素。</p>
<h2>利率下降，但萊納預計第四季度穩定</h2>
<p>隨着美聯儲將利率下調 25 個基點，像萊納這樣的房屋建築商得到了他們想要的。這些降息提高了公司以可負擔的方式融資新建築項目的能力，並最終隨着抵押貸款利率的下降而推動銷售。</p>
<p>不過，抵押貸款利率與聯邦基金利率之間的關係並不完美。然而，抵押貸款利率已經開始因預期美聯儲降息而下跌。</p>
<p>截至 9 月 18 日，30 年期固定抵押貸款利率在一週內下降了 9 個基點，降至 6.26%。總體而言，自 6 月底以來，30 年期利率已下降約 50 個基點。</p>
<p>值得注意的是，美國房地產經紀人協會的勞倫斯·雲（Lawrence Yun）稱 6% 是 “魔法” 抵押貸款利率，可能會重新點燃房屋銷售。他現在認為，30 年期利率可能在 2025 年底前降至該水平。</p>
<p>然而，萊納並不期望其業務在第四季度有太大改善。它預計交付 22,000 至 23,000 套房屋，這比第三季度的實際交付量中值增加約 4%。它還預計毛利率為 17.5%，平均售價在 380,000 至 390,000 美元之間。</p>
<p>這表明該公司提供的高折扣將持續。總體而言，儘管利率下降，萊納的前景缺乏改善，這可能是導致其股票在 9 月 18 日盤後交易中下跌超過 3% 的原因。</p>
<h2>利率仍然是萊納上漲或下跌的關鍵</h2>
<p>進一步來看，市場將 10 月份再降 25 個基點的概率置於 92%。他們還預計 <strong>12 月份聯邦基金利率下降 50 個基點的概率為 82%</strong>。這些降息對萊納來説將是受歡迎的進展。</p>
<p>不過，這些預測可能會根據新數據發生顯著變化，預測利率變動向來是困難的。然而，通常來説，市場和美聯儲的預測者都認為，未來幾年聯邦基金利率將大幅下降。</p>
<p>萊納的前瞻市盈率（P/E）約為 15 倍。這比過去三年平均前瞻市盈率約 10.3 倍高出近 50%。這表明市場對萊納能夠從利率下降中受益寄予了很大期望。</p>
<p>如果利率朝着正確的方向變化，且經濟避免衰退，萊納的收益可能會顯著恢復。這可能使股票回到歷史最高點，需上漲約 32%。然而，如果這種情況沒有發生，股票可能會面臨顯著的賣壓。</p>
<h2>你現在應該投資 1,000 美元在萊納嗎？</h2>
<p>在你考慮萊納之前，你需要聽聽這個。</p>
<p>MarketBeat 每天跟蹤華爾街頂級評級和表現最佳的研究分析師及其向客户推薦的股票。MarketBeat 已識別出五隻股票，頂級分析師正在悄悄地向客户推薦現在購買，以便在更廣泛的市場注意到之前……而萊納並不在名單上。</p>
<p>雖然萊納目前在分析師中獲得了持有評級，但頂級分析師認為這五隻股票更值得購買。</p>
<p>在這裏查看這五隻股票</p>

萊納房產-A

萊納房產-B

<p>伯克希爾哈撒韋對萊納房產的投資面臨挑戰，因為該房屋建築商報告了 2025 年第三季度調整後每股收益下降 49% 和收入下降 6.5%。儘管自 6 月以來總回報率達到 21%，萊納房產的前景依然謹慎，預計交付量將保持穩定，並繼續提供折扣。利率下降可能會帶來一些緩解，但由於住房需求疲軟，公司業績承壓。財報發佈後，股價下跌超過 3%，反映出在不確定的經濟環境下對未來增長的擔憂</p>

<p>On Aug. 14, regulatory filings revealed that Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway NYSE: BRK.B had accumulated an approximately $800 million stake in U.S. homebuilder Lennar NYSE: LEN. These filings have a lag and show Berkshire’s position as of June 30.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>8 月 14 日，監管文件顯示沃倫·巴菲特的伯克希爾·哈撒韋（Berkshire Hathaway）在美國房屋建築商萊納（Lennar）中累計持有約 8 億美元的股份。這些文件存在滯後，顯示伯克希爾截至 6 月 30 日的持倉情況。</p>
</div><p>Surely, Berkshire is happy with the construction stock’s performance since then. From June 30 to Sept. 18, Lennar has <strong>provided a total return of approximately 21%</strong>. This comes as homebuilding stocks have recovered strongly, with the SPDR S&amp;P Homebuilders ETF NYSEARCA: XHB rising more than 16% over that period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可以肯定的是，自那時以來，伯克希爾對這隻建築股的表現感到滿意。從 6 月 30 日到 9 月 18 日，萊納的 <strong>總回報約為 21%</strong>。這段時間內，房屋建築股強勁反彈，SPDR S&amp;P 房屋建築商 ETF（XHB）上漲超過 16%。</p>
</div><p>Expectations of lower interest rates have buoyed homebuilder stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對利率下降的預期提振了房屋建築股。</p>
</div><p>However, Sept. 18 also marked Lennar’s first big test since Berkshire revealed its position. The company reported its Q3 2025 earnings after the market closed, providing the latest indicator of the housing market’s health. Let’s break down the results and gain an updated perspective on the stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，9 月 18 日也是萊納自伯克希爾披露其持倉以來的首次重大考驗。該公司在市場收盤後公佈了 2025 年第三季度的財報，提供了住房市場健康狀況的最新指標。讓我們來分析一下結果，並獲得對該股票的最新看法。</p>
</div><h2>Lennar Takes Nearly 50% Profit Cut as Selling Prices Sink</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>萊納因售價下滑幾乎削減 50% 的利潤</h2>
</div><p>In Q3, Lennar reported revenue of $8.8 billion, a decline of approximately 6.5%. This moderately missed expectations of $9 billion, or only a 4.4% decline. After excluding the mark-to-market gains of its technology investments, Lennar’s adjusted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $2.00. This was a massive 49% drop from the prior year. Additionally, the figure missed Wall Street estimates of $2.14, or a 45% drop.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在第三季度，萊納報告收入為 88 億美元，下降約 6.5%。這略微低於預期的 90 億美元，或僅下降 4.4%。在剔除其科技投資的公允價值變動後，萊納的調整後每股收益（EPS）為 2.00 美元。這比去年大幅下降 49%。此外，該數字也低於華爾街預期的 2.14 美元，下降幅度為 45%。</p>
</div><p>Notably, these large drops in sales and EPS came even though Lennar delivered 21,584 homes, slightly more than it did in Q3 2024. This is partially because the company has been offering significant discounts, dropping its average home selling price by over 9% to $383,000.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，儘管萊納交付了 21,584 套房屋，略高於 2024 年第三季度的交付量，但銷售和每股收益的大幅下降仍然發生。這部分是因為該公司提供了顯著的折扣，將其平均房屋售價降低了超過 9%，降至 383,000 美元。</p>
</div><p>This has put a significant damper on Lennar’s gross margin, which fell by 500 basis points to 17.5%. Clearly, <strong>soft housing demand</strong> is putting significant pressure on Lennar’s top and bottom lines. Still, falling interest rates are one tailwind the company has on its side.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這對萊納的毛利率造成了顯著影響，毛利率下降了 500 個基點，降至 17.5%。顯然，<strong>疲軟的住房需求</strong> 對萊納的收入和利潤造成了重大壓力。不過，利率下降是公司面臨的一個利好因素。</p>
</div><h2>Interest Rates Are Falling, But Lennar Projects Stable Q4</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>利率下降，但萊納預計第四季度穩定</h2>
</div><p>With the Federal Reserve dropping interest rates by 25 basis points, homebuilders like Lennar got exactly what they wanted. These cuts increase the company’s ability to affordably finance new building projects and eventually boost sales as mortgage rates fall.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着美聯儲將利率下調 25 個基點，像萊納這樣的房屋建築商得到了他們想要的。這些降息提高了公司以可負擔的方式融資新建築項目的能力，並最終隨着抵押貸款利率的下降而推動銷售。</p>
</div><p>Still, mortgage rates are far from a perfect relationship with the Fed Funds Rate. However, they have already started to fall in anticipation of the Fed rate cut.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不過，抵押貸款利率與聯邦基金利率之間的關係並不完美。然而，抵押貸款利率已經開始因預期美聯儲降息而下跌。</p>
</div><p>As of September 18, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell by 9 basis points to 6.26% in one week. Overall, the 30-year rate has been down by around 50 basis points since the end of June.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 9 月 18 日，30 年期固定抵押貸款利率在一週內下降了 9 個基點，降至 6.26%。總體而言，自 6 月底以來，30 年期利率已下降約 50 個基點。</p>
</div><p>Notably, Lawrence Yun at the National Association of Realtors has called 6% the “magic” mortgage rate that could reignite home sales. He now believes the 30-year could fall to that rate by the end of 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，美國房地產經紀人協會的勞倫斯·雲（Lawrence Yun）稱 6% 是 “魔法” 抵押貸款利率，可能會重新點燃房屋銷售。他現在認為，30 年期利率可能在 2025 年底前降至該水平。</p>
</div><p>However, Lennar doesn’t expect its business to improve much in the fourth quarter. It expects to deliver between 22,000 and 23,000 homes, which is around a 4% increase at the midpoint compared to actual deliveries in Q3. It also sees gross margin at 17.5% and average selling prices between $380,000 and $390,000.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，萊納並不期望其業務在第四季度有太大改善。它預計交付 22,000 至 23,000 套房屋，這比第三季度的實際交付量中值增加約 4%。它還預計毛利率為 17.5%，平均售價在 380,000 至 390,000 美元之間。</p>
</div><p>This suggests that the steep discounts the firm is offering will continue. Overall, the lack of improvement in Lennar’s outlook despite falling rates is likely why shares fell by more than 3% in after-hours trading on Sept. 18.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這表明該公司提供的高折扣將持續。總體而言，儘管利率下降，萊納的前景缺乏改善，這可能是導致其股票在 9 月 18 日盤後交易中下跌超過 3% 的原因。</p>
</div><h2>Interest Rates Remain Key to Lennar Surging or Suffering</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>利率仍然是萊納上漲或下跌的關鍵</h2>
</div><p>Looking further, markets put the probability of another 25-point cut in October at 92%. They also see an <strong>82% probability of the Fed Funds Rate falling 50 basis points</strong> from current levels in December. Those cuts would be welcome developments for Lennar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>進一步來看，市場將 10 月份再降 25 個基點的概率置於 92%。他們還預計 <strong>12 月份聯邦基金利率下降 50 個基點的概率為 82%</strong>。這些降息對萊納來説將是受歡迎的進展。</p>
</div><p>Still, these forecasts could shift significantly based on new data, and predicting interest rate movements is notoriously difficult. However, generally speaking, markets and Federal Reserve forecasters alike see the Fed Funds Rate moving down considerably over the coming years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不過，這些預測可能會根據新數據發生顯著變化，預測利率變動向來是困難的。然而，通常來説，市場和美聯儲的預測者都認為，未來幾年聯邦基金利率將大幅下降。</p>
</div><p>Lennar trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 15x. That’s nearly 50% higher than its average forward P/E over the past three years of around 10.3x. This suggests that markets are putting a lot of weight on Lennar’s ability to benefit from lower interest rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>萊納的前瞻市盈率（P/E）約為 15 倍。這比過去三年平均前瞻市盈率約 10.3 倍高出近 50%。這表明市場對萊納能夠從利率下降中受益寄予了很大期望。</p>
</div><p>Lennar's earnings could recover significantly if interest rates move in the right direction and the economy avoids recession. This could allow shares to return to all-time highs, requiring around a 32% gain. However, if this doesn’t happen, there could be significant selling pressure on the stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果利率朝着正確的方向變化，且經濟避免衰退，萊納的收益可能會顯著恢復。這可能使股票回到歷史最高點，需上漲約 32%。然而，如果這種情況沒有發生，股票可能會面臨顯著的賣壓。</p>
</div><h2>Should You Invest $1,000 in Lennar Right Now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>你現在應該投資 1,000 美元在萊納嗎？</h2>
</div><p>Before you consider Lennar, you'll want to hear this.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在你考慮萊納之前，你需要聽聽這個。</p>
</div><p>MarketBeat keeps track of Wall Street's top-rated and best performing research analysts and the stocks they recommend to their clients on a daily basis. MarketBeat has identified the five stocks that top analysts are quietly whispering to their clients to buy now before the broader market catches on... and Lennar wasn't on the list.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MarketBeat 每天跟蹤華爾街頂級評級和表現最佳的研究分析師及其向客户推薦的股票。MarketBeat 已識別出五隻股票，頂級分析師正在悄悄地向客户推薦現在購買，以便在更廣泛的市場注意到之前……而萊納並不在名單上。</p>
</div><p>While Lennar currently has a Hold rating among analysts, top-rated analysts believe these five stocks are better buys.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然萊納目前在分析師中獲得了持有評級，但頂級分析師認為這五隻股票更值得購買。</p>
</div><p>View The Five Stocks Here</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這裏查看這五隻股票</p>
</div>

伯克希爾支持的萊納在第三季度業績疲軟後股價下跌