<p>我今年最好的投資之一無疑是 <strong>e.l.f. Beauty</strong>(ELF -4.49%)。一個重要原因是我在今年股價跌入 60 美元區間時買入了這隻股票。</p>
<p>當時，投資者在公司發佈疲弱的 2024 財年第四季度銷售指引後感到恐慌。整個化妝品行業都感受到了一些壓力，而對 TikTok 的不確定性（該公司在該平台上有着巨大的營銷存在）也造成了一些阻力。</p>
<p>然而，放緩並沒有影響到 e.l.f.在過去幾年中在大眾化妝品類別中獲得的巨大市場份額。其產品和營銷與年輕消費者產生了共鳴，同時在零售商那裏獲得了大量貨架空間。</p>
<p>儘管關税的影響繼續對股價施加壓力，但公司通過同意以 10 億美元收購高端美容新興品牌 Rhode，成功改變了自己的命運。今年早些時候我買入的股票價格已經翻倍，但最好的可能還在後頭。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE3MzkvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTc1Mzg4MTEyLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE3MzkvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTc1Mzg4MTEyLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>Rhode 的救贖之路</h2>
<p>e.l.f.於 8 月完成的對 Rhode 的收購是公司的一次重大變革。該品牌在名人 Hailey Bieber 的支持下，自推出以來不到三年便實現了 2.12 億美元的銷售。雖然這本身就令人印象深刻，但更令人驚訝的是，這一切僅通過在其網站上銷售少量產品且幾乎沒有付費營銷實現。</p>
<p>雖然 e.l.f.在大眾化妝品領域已經打響了名號，但 Rhode 為其提供了一個高端護膚和美容品牌，具有更高的價格點和更好的毛利率。重要的是，Bieber 將繼續擔任首席創意官和創新負責人，並保持品牌的代言人身份。</p>
<p>對 e.l.f.來説，這筆收購的美妙之處在於 Rhode 品牌的初創階段。它僅銷售約 10 種產品，因此有很大的機會擴展其產品線。此外，e.l.f.最大的優勢之一是其影響者營銷機制，這將直接與 Rhode 品牌結合。</p>
<p>然而，消費品的最大增長驅動力是分銷的提升。如果你想找到一隻具有巨大上行潛力的消費股，尋找那些進入更多商店並獲得貨架空間的股票。e.l.f.在過去幾年中已經在其自有品牌上做到這一點，但現在它可以對 Rhode 做同樣的事情。</p>
<p>即使在收購之前，Rhode 也計劃在今年秋季進入 Sephora 商店，並在本月成功在美國和加拿大的所有 Sephora 商店及在線推出其產品。它將在今年秋季晚些時候進入英國的 Sephora 商店。Sephora 在全球擁有超過 3200 家門店，因此這對該品牌未來來説是一個巨大的機會。值得注意的是，Sephora 在推出時將攜帶 16 種 Rhode 產品，因此它已經開始擴展其產品線。</p>
<p>Sephora 可能只是個開始。<strong>Ulta Beauty</strong> 是 Rhode 品牌下一個合乎邏輯的零售合作伙伴，因為 e.l.f.已經與該公司建立了良好的關係，該公司銷售高端和大眾市場的化妝品及護膚產品。<strong>Target</strong> 也是未來的一個潛在選擇，因為 e.l.f.在該零售商那裏獲得了大量貨架空間，並且它仍然比其他大眾市場零售商更具高端氛圍。</p>
<h2>這隻股票仍然值得購買嗎？</h2>
<p>我堅信，投資者可以做出的最佳交易之一就是在分銷提升之前購買消費股。無論產品是狗糧、能量飲料還是美容產品，增加的分銷通常會導致超額的收入增長，市場也會給予回報。e.l.f.曾經使用過這一策略，現在它可以再次在 Rhode 上運用。</p>
<p>與此同時，考慮到未來的增長，這隻股票的估值仍然相對吸引人。雖然它目前的前瞻市盈率為 42（基於分析師對 2026 財年的預估），但其市盈率與增長比（PEG）僅為 0.5。PEG 比率為正且低於 1 的股票通常被視為被低估。</p>
<p>在其分銷機會和估值之間，這隻成長股看起來有很大的上行空間。</p>

<p>E.l.f. Beauty 被預測為今年的熱門投資，尤其是在由於銷售指引疲軟導致其股價下跌之後。該公司收購高端美容品牌 Rhode 被視為一個改變遊戲規則的舉措，提供高檔產品和更好的利潤率。隨着 Rhode 進入 Sephora 以及潛在擴展到其他零售商，e.l.f. 處於顯著增長的有利位置。該股票的估值吸引人，PEG 比率較低，表明它仍然是一個強勁的買入選擇，因為預計分銷增長將推動收入增長</p>

<p>One of my best investments this year will undoubtedly be <strong>e.l.f. Beauty</strong>(ELF -4.49%). A big reason for this is that I was buying the stock this year on its dip into the $60s.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我今年最好的投資之一無疑是 <strong>e.l.f. Beauty</strong>(ELF -4.49%)。一個重要原因是我在今年股價跌入 60 美元區間時買入了這隻股票。</p>
</div><p>At the time, investors were panicking after the company issued weak fiscal Q4 sales guidance. The cosmetics industry as a whole was feeling some pressure, while uncertainty over TikTok, where the company has a huge marketing presence, caused some headwinds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當時，投資者在公司發佈疲弱的 2024 財年第四季度銷售指引後感到恐慌。整個化妝品行業都感受到了一些壓力，而對 TikTok 的不確定性（該公司在該平台上有着巨大的營銷存在）也造成了一些阻力。</p>
</div><p>However, the slowdown didn't take away from the fact that e.l.f. has taken massive market share in the mass cosmetics category over the past several years. Its products and marketing have resonated with younger consumers, while it's gained massive shelf space at retailers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，放緩並沒有影響到 e.l.f.在過去幾年中在大眾化妝品類別中獲得的巨大市場份額。其產品和營銷與年輕消費者產生了共鳴，同時在零售商那裏獲得了大量貨架空間。</p>
</div><p>While the impact of tariffs continued to weigh on the stock, the company was able to proactively change its fortunes when it agreed to acquire high-end beauty upstart Rhode in a $1 billion deal. The stock has more than doubled from my buys earlier this year, but the best may yet to come.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管關税的影響繼續對股價施加壓力，但公司通過同意以 10 億美元收購高端美容新興品牌 Rhode，成功改變了自己的命運。今年早些時候我買入的股票價格已經翻倍，但最好的可能還在後頭。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE3MzkvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTc1Mzg4MTEyLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F831739%2Fgettyimages-175388112.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>The Rhode to redemption</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Rhode 的救贖之路</h2>
</div><p>E.l.f.'s acquisition of Rhode, which closed in August, is a huge game changer for the company. Backed by celebrity Hailey Bieber, the brand was able to generate sales of $212 million in less than three years since its launch. While that is impressive on its own, what's even more impressive is that was done by only selling a handful of products on its website with little paid marketing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>e.l.f.於 8 月完成的對 Rhode 的收購是公司的一次重大變革。該品牌在名人 Hailey Bieber 的支持下，自推出以來不到三年便實現了 2.12 億美元的銷售。雖然這本身就令人印象深刻，但更令人驚訝的是，這一切僅通過在其網站上銷售少量產品且幾乎沒有付費營銷實現。</p>
</div><p>While e.l.f. has made its mark in the mass cosmetics space, Rhode gives it an upscale skincare and beauty brand with higher price points and better gross margins. Importantly, Bieber will stay on as chief creative officer and head of innovation and remain the face of the brand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然 e.l.f.在大眾化妝品領域已經打響了名號，但 Rhode 為其提供了一個高端護膚和美容品牌，具有更高的價格點和更好的毛利率。重要的是，Bieber 將繼續擔任首席創意官和創新負責人，並保持品牌的代言人身份。</p>
</div><p>The beauty of the acquisition for e.l.f. is how nascent the Rhode brand is. It only sold about 10 products, so there is a big opportunity to expand its product line. In addition, one of e.l.f.'s biggest strengths has been its influencer marketing machine, which it will plug the Rhode brand right into.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對 e.l.f.來説，這筆收購的美妙之處在於 Rhode 品牌的初創階段。它僅銷售約 10 種產品，因此有很大的機會擴展其產品線。此外，e.l.f.最大的優勢之一是其影響者營銷機制，這將直接與 Rhode 品牌結合。</p>
</div><p>However, the biggest growth driver for consumer products is distribution gains. If you want to find a consumer stock with a lot of upside potential, look for one that is getting into more stores and gaining shelf space. E.l.f. has been doing that over the past several years with its namesake brand, but now it gets to do the same thing with Rhode.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，消費品的最大增長驅動力是分銷的提升。如果你想找到一隻具有巨大上行潛力的消費股，尋找那些進入更多商店並獲得貨架空間的股票。e.l.f.在過去幾年中已經在其自有品牌上做到這一點，但現在它可以對 Rhode 做同樣的事情。</p>
</div><p>Even before the acquisition, Rhode was set to enter Sephora stores this fall, and it successfully launched its products at all Sephora stores and online in the U.S. and Canada earlier this month. It will enter U.K. Sephora stores later this fall. Sephora has more than 3,200 stores around the world, so this is a big opportunity for the brand moving forward. It's also worth noting that Sephora will be carrying 16 Rhode products at launch, so it's already started to expand its product lineup.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使在收購之前，Rhode 也計劃在今年秋季進入 Sephora 商店，並在本月成功在美國和加拿大的所有 Sephora 商店及在線推出其產品。它將在今年秋季晚些時候進入英國的 Sephora 商店。Sephora 在全球擁有超過 3200 家門店，因此這對該品牌未來來説是一個巨大的機會。值得注意的是，Sephora 在推出時將攜帶 16 種 Rhode 產品，因此它已經開始擴展其產品線。</p>
</div><p>Sephora is also likely just the start. <strong>Ulta Beauty</strong> is the next logical retail partner for the Rhode brand, given that e.l.f. already has a solid relationship with the company, which sells both prestige and mass market cosmetics and skincare products. <strong>Target</strong> is another potential option down the road, as e.l.f. has gained a lot of shelf space at the retailer and it still gives a more upscale vibe than other mass market retailers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Sephora 可能只是個開始。<strong>Ulta Beauty</strong> 是 Rhode 品牌下一個合乎邏輯的零售合作伙伴，因為 e.l.f.已經與該公司建立了良好的關係，該公司銷售高端和大眾市場的化妝品及護膚產品。<strong>Target</strong> 也是未來的一個潛在選擇，因為 e.l.f.在該零售商那裏獲得了大量貨架空間，並且它仍然比其他大眾市場零售商更具高端氛圍。</p>
</div><h2>Is the stock still a buy?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>這隻股票仍然值得購買嗎？</h2>
</div><p>I firmly believe that one of the best trades an investor can make is buying a consumer stock ahead of distribution gains. It doesn't matter if the product is dog food, energy drinks, or beauty products. Increased distribution generally leads to outsized revenue growth, which the market then rewards. E.l.f. used this playbook once, and now it can now run it back with Rhode.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我堅信，投資者可以做出的最佳交易之一就是在分銷提升之前購買消費股。無論產品是狗糧、能量飲料還是美容產品，增加的分銷通常會導致超額的收入增長，市場也會給予回報。e.l.f.曾經使用過這一策略，現在它可以再次在 Rhode 上運用。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, the stock still has a relatively attractive valuation given the growth in front of it. While it currently trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 42 (based on analysts' estimates for fiscal 2026), its price/earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio is only 0.5. A stock with a positive PEG ratio of less than 1 is typically viewed as undervalued.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，考慮到未來的增長，這隻股票的估值仍然相對吸引人。雖然它目前的前瞻市盈率為 42（基於分析師對 2026 財年的預估），但其市盈率與增長比（PEG）僅為 0.5。PEG 比率為正且低於 1 的股票通常被視為被低估。</p>
</div><p>Between its distribution opportunity and valuation, this growth stock looks like it has plenty of upside ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在其分銷機會和估值之間，這隻成長股看起來有很大的上行空間。</p>
</div>

預測：E.l.f. Beauty 將成為我今年最佳投資之一。以下是原因