<p>7 月 31 日，互聯網設計公司 <strong>Figma</strong>(FIG -1.24%) 的股票以 85 美元開盤，首日收盤價超過 115 美元。次日，Figma 股票收於每股 122 美元，但此後一直處於下滑狀態。</p>
<p>儘管 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong> 在 8 月份上漲了 1.9%，但該股票在 8 月份下跌了 39.2%。而在 9 月份情況並沒有改善。截至 9 月 22 日，標準普爾 500 指數享受了一個異常強勁的月份，漲幅為 3.6%，而 Figma 股票又下跌了 16.4%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzMwNjcveW91bmctbWFuLXNpdHRpbmctcGVuc2l2ZWx5LWF0LWhpcy1jb21wdXRlci1sb29raW5nLXRob3VnaHRmdWxseS1hdC10aGUtc2NyZWVuLWluLWZyb250LW9mLWhpbS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzMwNjcveW91bmctbWFuLXNpdHRpbmctcGVuc2l2ZWx5LWF0LWhpcy1jb21wdXRlci1sb29raW5nLXRob3VnaHRmdWxseS1hdC10aGUtc2NyZWVuLWluLWZyb250LW9mLWhpbS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>綜合來看，該股票在交易的第二天達到了歷史最高點，目前已從該峯值下跌了 59%。如此大的跌幅，Figma 現在是否對長期投資者來説是個便宜的選擇？</p>
<h2>Figma 股票下跌的兩個原因</h2>
<p>這不是我提到的兩個原因之一，但值得一提的是，Figma 僅在幾周前進行了首次公開募股（IPO）。無論 IPO 股票是高質量還是低質量，_波動性_在這些早期月份都是常見的。</p>
<p>Figma 幾乎可以保證給投資者帶來一場驚心動魄的旅程，原因僅僅是它是一隻新上市的股票。這也是一些投資者完全避免 IPO 股票的原因。</p>
<p>撇開一般的 IPO 波動性，Figma 在 9 月 3 日發佈了 2025 年第二季度的業績，這是它作為上市公司的首次報告，結果讓投資者失望。這是股票下跌的原因之一。</p>
<p>在第二季度，該公司實現了 2.5 億美元的收入，同比增長 41%。單從這一點來看，41% 的增長絕對是出色的。</p>
<p>但這裏有兩個方面的擔憂。首先，這是從第一季度報告的 46% 增長的減速。其次，根據管理層的説法，這種減速才剛剛開始。</p>
<p>對於第三季度，Figma 預計在指導區間中點的收入增長為 33%。同樣，這個數字單獨來看是強勁的，但增長率的急劇下降仍然顯而易見。對於 2025 年全年，該公司預計比去年增長 37%。這一全年指導暗示第四季度的增長率僅為 30%。</p>
<p>Figma 上市後最初因其作為成長股的潛力而飆升，但其增長速度正在迅速放緩——這是第一個問題。第二個問題是：在其峯值時，該股票的交易價格超過了銷售額的 66 倍。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/faf62acf69bfccb446687f2dd97aebad.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/faf62acf69bfccb446687f2dd97aebad.png"/></p>
<p>數據來源於 YCharts；PS 比率=市銷率。</p>
<p>我見過一些股票以如此高的估值交易，仍然為投資者提供正的長期回報。儘管如此，這通常適用於仍在加速其收入的企業。</p>
<p>簡而言之，投資者願意為 Figma 股票支付高價，假設其增長將繼續令人印象深刻。但放眼初始炒作，收入增長正在下滑，投資者正在重新考慮估值。</p>
<h2>預測 Figma 未來的表現</h2>
<p>《福布斯 2000》是全球 2000 家最大的上市公司的名單——這些都是大魚。值得一提的是，Figma 已經獲得了其中大部分客户。它的客户中有 78% 來自福布斯 2000，顯示出其軟件的廣泛採用。</p>
<p>此外，大約三分之二的客户使用三種或更多的 Figma 軟件產品。就軟件企業而言，這是一種強勁的採用率。</p>
<p>然而，對於今天想要購買該股票的投資者來説，這反而成了一個逆風因素。它能夠贏得的大客户相對較少。而且，由於許多客户已經採用了多個 Figma 產品，向客户推銷更多服務也變得具有挑戰性。在這種情況下，增長放緩是完全合理的。</p>
<p>換句話説，Figma 的業務已經如此成功，以至於尋找增量增長變得更加困難。一些投資者可能會反對這一説法，認為該公司仍然預計 2025 年將實現兩位數的增長。</p>
<p>但考慮到該公司在今年早些時候將價格提高了超過 20%。它所預測的許多增長來自於提高價格，這種情況如果不加控制，可能會導致客户流失。</p>
<p>就我個人而言，我認為 Figma 股票在未來將表現不佳。畢竟，儘管最近出現了拋售，但它仍以超過 30 倍的銷售額交易，使其成為市場上估值較高的軟件股票之一。如果其收入增長繼續放緩，估值可能會繼續下降。</p>
<p>Figma 需要一些真正能夠幫助業務維持增長的東西。好消息是，它手頭有 16 億美元的現金和可流動證券，可以資助大量的研發或推動收購。但目前，由於增長放緩，估值風險較高——即使在其下跌 59% 之後，我也不會現在購買該股票。</p>

<p>Figma 的股票自首次公開募股以來已下跌 59%，從最初的 122 美元高點跌至 8 月和 9 月的顯著虧損。儘管 2025 年第二季度的年收入增長率達到 41%，但由於增長率放緩和超過 30 倍銷售額的高估值，市場上出現了擔憂。Figma 強大的客户基礎包括 78% 的《福布斯》2000 強企業，但由於新客户獲取有限和對價格上漲的依賴，增長挑戰依然存在。分析師預測，除非 Figma 能夠通過創新或收購維持增長，否則在市場上將表現不佳</p>

<p>On July 31, shares of internet design company <strong>Figma</strong>(FIG -1.24%) began trading at $85 and finished their first day at over $115. The following day, Figma stock closed at $122 per share, but it's been all downhill since then.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>7 月 31 日，互聯網設計公司 <strong>Figma</strong>(FIG -1.24%) 的股票以 85 美元開盤，首日收盤價超過 115 美元。次日，Figma 股票收於每股 122 美元，但此後一直處於下滑狀態。</p>
</div><p>The stock dropped 39.2% in August even though the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> was up 1.9% for the month. And things haven't improved in September. Whereas the S&amp;P 500 is enjoying an unusually strong month with a 3.6% gain as of Sept. 22, Figma stock has plunged another 16.4%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong> 在 8 月份上漲了 1.9%，但該股票在 8 月份下跌了 39.2%。而在 9 月份情況並沒有改善。截至 9 月 22 日，標準普爾 500 指數享受了一個異常強勁的月份，漲幅為 3.6%，而 Figma 股票又下跌了 16.4%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzMwNjcveW91bmctbWFuLXNpdHRpbmctcGVuc2l2ZWx5LWF0LWhpcy1jb21wdXRlci1sb29raW5nLXRob3VnaHRmdWxseS1hdC10aGUtc2NyZWVuLWluLWZyb250LW9mLWhpbS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F833067%2Fyoung-man-sitting-pensively-at-his-computer-looking-thoughtfully-at-the-screen-in-front-of-him.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>Adding it all up, the stock reached an all-time high on its second day of trading and is already down 59% from that peak. With this big of a drop, is Figma now a bargain for long-term investors?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>綜合來看，該股票在交易的第二天達到了歷史最高點，目前已從該峯值下跌了 59%。如此大的跌幅，Figma 現在是否對長期投資者來説是個便宜的選擇？</p>
</div><h2>Two reasons Figma stock is down</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Figma 股票下跌的兩個原因</h2>
</div><p>This isn't one of my two reasons, but it's worth mentioning that Figma had its initial public offering (IPO) only weeks ago. Regardless of whether an IPO stock is high quality or low quality, <em>volatility</em> is common in these early months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這不是我提到的兩個原因之一，但值得一提的是，Figma 僅在幾周前進行了首次公開募股（IPO）。無論 IPO 股票是高質量還是低質量，_波動性_在這些早期月份都是常見的。</p>
</div><p>Figma was practically guaranteed to give investors a wild ride, simply because it's a recent IPO. It's why some investors avoid IPO stocks entirely.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Figma 幾乎可以保證給投資者帶來一場驚心動魄的旅程，原因僅僅是它是一隻新上市的股票。這也是一些投資者完全避免 IPO 股票的原因。</p>
</div><p>General IPO volatility aside, Figma reported results for the second quarter of 2025 on Sept. 3, its first report as a publicly-traded company, and it underwhelmed the investor community. This is one of the reasons the stock is down.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>撇開一般的 IPO 波動性，Figma 在 9 月 3 日發佈了 2025 年第二季度的業績，這是它作為上市公司的首次報告，結果讓投資者失望。這是股票下跌的原因之一。</p>
</div><p>In the second quarter, the company generated revenue of $250 million, which was good for 41% year-over-year growth. In isolation, 41% growth is absolutely stellar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在第二季度，該公司實現了 2.5 億美元的收入，同比增長 41%。單從這一點來看，41% 的增長絕對是出色的。</p>
</div><p>But there is a twofold concern here. First, this is a deceleration from the 46% growth it reported in the first quarter. Second, the deceleration is only just beginning, according to management.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但這裏有兩個方面的擔憂。首先，這是從第一季度報告的 46% 增長的減速。其次，根據管理層的説法，這種減速才剛剛開始。</p>
</div><p>For the third quarter, Figma expects 33% revenue growth at the midpoint of its guidance range. Again, this is a strong number in isolation but a sharp drop-off for its growth rate nevertheless. And for all of 2025, the company is guiding for a 37% jump from the previous year. This full-year guidance implies just a 30% growth rate for the fourth quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於第三季度，Figma 預計在指導區間中點的收入增長為 33%。同樣，這個數字單獨來看是強勁的，但增長率的急劇下降仍然顯而易見。對於 2025 年全年，該公司預計比去年增長 37%。這一全年指導暗示第四季度的增長率僅為 30%。</p>
</div><p>Figma went public and initially surged based on its potential as a growth stock, but its growth is quickly slowing -- that's the first problem. Here's the second problem: At its peak, the stock traded at over 66 times sales.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Figma 上市後最初因其作為成長股的潛力而飆升，但其增長速度正在迅速放緩——這是第一個問題。第二個問題是：在其峯值時，該股票的交易價格超過了銷售額的 66 倍。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/faf62acf69bfccb446687f2dd97aebad.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/faf62acf69bfccb446687f2dd97aebad.png"/></p>
<p>Data by YCharts; PS ratio= price-to-sales ratio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源於 YCharts；PS 比率=市銷率。</p>
</div><p>I've seen stocks trade at a lofty valuation such as this and still provide investors with positive long-term returns. That being said, this is usually the case for businesses that are still accelerating their top line.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我見過一些股票以如此高的估值交易，仍然為投資者提供正的長期回報。儘管如此，這通常適用於仍在加速其收入的企業。</p>
</div><p>In short, it seems that investors were willing to pay a high price for Figma stock out of the gate, assuming its growth would continue to impress. But looking beyond the initial hype, revenue growth is trending downward, and investors are rethinking the valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>簡而言之，投資者願意為 Figma 股票支付高價，假設其增長將繼續令人印象深刻。但放眼初始炒作，收入增長正在下滑，投資者正在重新考慮估值。</p>
</div><h2>Projecting Figma's performance from here</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>預測 Figma 未來的表現</h2>
</div><p>The Forbes 2000 is a list of 2,000 of the largest publicly-traded companies in the world -- these are big fish. And to its credit, Figma has already landed most of them. It counts 78% of the Forbes 2000 as customers, showing how widely adopted its software is.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>《福布斯 2000》是全球 2000 家最大的上市公司的名單——這些都是大魚。值得一提的是，Figma 已經獲得了其中大部分客户。它的客户中有 78% 來自福布斯 2000，顯示出其軟件的廣泛採用。</p>
</div><p>Moreover, around two-thirds of its customers use three or more of its software products. As far as software businesses go, that's a strong adoption rate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，大約三分之二的客户使用三種或更多的 Figma 軟件產品。就軟件企業而言，這是一種強勁的採用率。</p>
</div><p>However, for investors looking to buy the stock today, this is counterintuitively a headwind. There are relatively few big customers that it could win from here. And upselling its customers to more services is challenging because of how many have already adopted multiple Figma products. With this context, a slowdown in growth makes perfect sense.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，對於今天想要購買該股票的投資者來説，這反而成了一個逆風因素。它能夠贏得的大客户相對較少。而且，由於許多客户已經採用了多個 Figma 產品，向客户推銷更多服務也變得具有挑戰性。在這種情況下，增長放緩是完全合理的。</p>
</div><p>In other words, Figma's business is already so successful that it makes incremental growth harder to find. Some investors may object to this statement, considering the company is still calling for double-digit growth in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>換句話説，Figma 的業務已經如此成功，以至於尋找增量增長變得更加困難。一些投資者可能會反對這一説法，認為該公司仍然預計 2025 年將實現兩位數的增長。</p>
</div><p>But consider that the company raised its prices by over 20% earlier this year. Much of the growth it's projecting comes from charging higher prices, which can't be too regular an occurrence without risking excessive customer churn.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但考慮到該公司在今年早些時候將價格提高了超過 20%。它所預測的許多增長來自於提高價格，這種情況如果不加控制，可能會導致客户流失。</p>
</div><p>Personally, I believe Figma stock will underperform the market going forward. After all, it's still trading at over 30 times sales despite the recent sell-off, making it one of the more richly valued software stocks out there. If its revenue growth continues to slow, the valuation will likely keep coming down.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就我個人而言，我認為 Figma 股票在未來將表現不佳。畢竟，儘管最近出現了拋售，但它仍以超過 30 倍的銷售額交易，使其成為市場上估值較高的軟件股票之一。如果其收入增長繼續放緩，估值可能會繼續下降。</p>
</div><p>Figma needs something that will truly help the business sustain its growth. The good news is it has $1.6 billion in cash and marketable securities at its disposal that can fund a lot of research and development or fuel acquisitions. But for now, the valuation risk is elevated due to its slowing growth -- I wouldn't buy the stock right now, even after its 59% drop.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Figma 需要一些真正能夠幫助業務維持增長的東西。好消息是，它手頭有 16 億美元的現金和可流動證券，可以資助大量的研發或推動收購。但目前，由於增長放緩，估值風險較高——即使在其下跌 59% 之後，我也不會現在購買該股票。</p>
</div>

自八月以來 Figma 股價已下跌 59%，現在是否是購買 Figma 股票的好時機？