<p>期待已久的降息終於到來了，伴隨着人們對加密貨幣價格可能再次全面飆升的希望。<strong>比特幣</strong>(BTC -0.50%) 在宣佈後的幾個小時內上漲了 2%，而本月一直緩慢上升的 <strong>以太坊</strong>(ETH -0.82%) 則上漲了超過 3%。</p>
<p>但是小型幣種呢？其中一些確實表現良好。截至 9 月 18 日，<strong>雪崩</strong>(AVAX -3.01%) 在一週內上漲了近 20%，而 <strong>幣安幣</strong>(BNB 2.33%) 在同一時間段內上漲了近 9%。</p>
<p>儘管如此，今年加密貨幣夏季的一個顯著特點是，只有比特幣、以太坊和少數其他幣種看到了顯著的資金流入，其他項目則被冷落。加密貨幣愛好者希望美聯儲的降息以及證券交易委員會（SEC）預計將批准的一系列現貨加密貨幣交易所交易基金（ETF）可能是替代幣所需要的推動力。讓我們深入探討一下這是否現實。</p>
<h2>什麼是替代幣季？</h2>
<p>替代幣通常被定義為任何不是比特幣的加密貨幣。而替代幣季是指小型加密貨幣價格上漲的時期。通常表現為比特幣在加密市場的主導地位下降、消費者情緒的變化以及替代幣交易量的激增。</p>
<p>例如，在 2017-2018 年的替代幣季，比特幣在總市值中的份額降至 35% 以下，而替代幣的份額超過 45%，根據 CoinMarketCap 的數據。類似地，在 2021 年的某些時點，替代幣和比特幣各自佔據了加密市場現金的約 40%。</p>
<p>今天我們距離那個時刻還很遙遠。比特幣的主導地位接近 58%，以太坊為 13%，其餘的替代幣約佔 30%。過去一個月，比特幣的現金集中度略有下降，但還不足以宣告替代幣季的到來。</p>
<p>替代幣季可能是一些高風險項目帶來強勁回報的時機。“可能” 是這裏的關鍵字——許多替代幣從未起步，有些則完全失敗。</p>
<h2>為什麼替代幣季尚未到來</h2>
<p>距離加密貨幣市場開始擺脱漫長的加密冬季已經快一年了。加密市場市值在 8 月創下新高。但正如我們所見，只有少數加密貨幣在推動這些漲幅。</p>
<p>這部分是因為這次牛市的特點是機構資金流入和主流對加密貨幣及區塊鏈技術的興趣不斷增加。到目前為止，SEC 僅批准了現貨比特幣和以太坊 ETF。機構投資者更關注成熟項目，而不願意在更具投機性的代幣和幣種上冒險。</p>
<p>這不僅僅是機構投資者。我們的研究顯示，如果你在四年前的最後一次加密熱潮中對前 20 個替代幣每個投資 200 美元，你的投資組合在幾周前將下跌約 30%。那些投資組合仍然處於虧損狀態的投資者這次可能會更加猶豫。</p>
<p>此外，上一次替代幣季發生在 2021 年，當時利率較低，疫情刺激資金的注入使得投資者更願意冒險。值得注意的是，現在的加密貨幣數量與之前的牛市相比多了數百萬個。CoinMarketCap 數據顯示，現在有超過 2100 萬個加密貨幣，而在 2021 年時不到 21000 個。雖然仍然可以找到隱藏的加密寶石，但難度大大增加。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzQzMjkvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ4Nzg0NzYyNC5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzQzMjkvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ4Nzg0NzYyNC5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>降息和 SEC ETF 批准可能推動替代幣</h2>
<p>影響替代幣價格的兩個因素可能正在發生變化。以下是原因：</p>
<h3>1. 降息可能使投資者更願意冒險</h3>
<p>當利率較低時，借貸變得更便宜。這可能轉化為對風險投資（包括加密貨幣）的更多流動性。較低的利率也使得投資者在債券和儲蓄賬户等投資中獲得合理收益變得更加困難，從而激勵他們考慮更具風險的資產。</p>
<h3>2. 大量 SEC 替代幣 ETF 批准可能改變局勢</h3>
<p>現貨替代幣 ETF 將使零售和機構投資者更容易投資。我們可能會在下個月看到更多此類 ETF。</p>
<p>SEC 剛剛發佈了新的標準，以簡化現貨加密 ETF 的批准流程。大約 90 個加密 ETF 申請已經在審批中，這可能會打開閘門。不僅如此，還會有更多的多種加密 ETF，這將使投資者更容易獲得替代幣的投資機會。</p>
<h2>替代幣季並非保證</h2>
<p>降息和即將到來的 ETF 批准所帶來的推動力為另一個替代幣季提供了最佳可能條件。然而，每個市場週期都是不同的。美聯儲的舉措並沒有引發太多的加密反彈，部分原因是投機已經提前推高了價格。不僅如此，經濟不確定性和通貨膨脹的擔憂仍然影響着投資者情緒。</p>
<p>在不可預測的加密世界中，一切皆有可能。但替代幣數量龐大意味着我們不太可能看到替代幣價格的再次大幅上漲。然而，隨着 ETF 批准的逐步落實，某些具有強大基本面或具有良好應用案例的項目可能會受益於機構資金的注入。</p>
<p>如果你考慮將替代幣加入你的投資組合，請尋找管理風險的方法。例如，構建一個多樣化的加密貨幣組合，以避免過度暴露於一兩個領域。同時確保加密貨幣僅佔你更廣泛投資的一小部分。</p>

ETHE

GBTC

<p>最近美聯儲的降息引發了對加密貨幣市場潛在山寨幣季的期待。比特幣和以太坊在公告後出現了上漲，但許多小型幣種仍然停滯不前。山寨幣季的特徵是非比特幣加密貨幣價格上漲，但目前尚未出現，比特幣的市場主導地位仍然很高。低利率和潛在的 SEC 對山寨幣 ETF 的批准等因素可能會鼓勵對山寨幣的投資，但由於過去的表現和加密貨幣之間競爭加劇，市場仍然保持謹慎</p>

<p>The long-awaited interest rate cut has arrived, and with it hopes that crypto prices may soar again across the board. <strong>Bitcoin</strong>(BTC -0.50%), which has been creeping up all month, gained 2% in the hours after the announcement. <strong>Ethereum</strong>(ETH -0.82%) gained more than 3%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>期待已久的降息終於到來了，伴隨着人們對加密貨幣價格可能再次全面飆升的希望。<strong>比特幣</strong>(BTC -0.50%) 在宣佈後的幾個小時內上漲了 2%，而本月一直緩慢上升的 <strong>以太坊</strong>(ETH -0.82%) 則上漲了超過 3%。</p>
</div><p>But what about the smaller coins? Some of them are certainly doing well. As of Sept. 18, <strong>Avalanche</strong>(AVAX -3.01%) had gained almost 20% in a week and <strong>Binance Coin</strong>(BNB 2.33%) was up almost 9% in the same time period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但是小型幣種呢？其中一些確實表現良好。截至 9 月 18 日，<strong>雪崩</strong>(AVAX -3.01%) 在一週內上漲了近 20%，而 <strong>幣安幣</strong>(BNB 2.33%) 在同一時間段內上漲了近 9%。</p>
</div><p>Even so, one notable aspect of this year's crypto summer is that only Bitcoin, Ethereum, and a handful of other coins have seen significant inflows, leaving other projects out in the cold. Crypto enthusiasts hope the Federal Reserve rate cut and expected raft of spot crypto exchange-traded fund (ETF) approvals by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) might be the boost altcoins need. Let's dive in and find out how realistic that might be.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，今年加密貨幣夏季的一個顯著特點是，只有比特幣、以太坊和少數其他幣種看到了顯著的資金流入，其他項目則被冷落。加密貨幣愛好者希望美聯儲的降息以及證券交易委員會（SEC）預計將批准的一系列現貨加密貨幣交易所交易基金（ETF）可能是替代幣所需要的推動力。讓我們深入探討一下這是否現實。</p>
</div><h2>What is altcoin season?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>什麼是替代幣季？</h2>
</div><p>Altcoins are usually defined as any cryptocurrency that isn't Bitcoin. And altcoin season is a time when prices of smaller cryptocurrencies rise. It is usually marked by a drop in Bitcoin's dominance of the crypto market, shifts in consumer sentiment, and a spike in altcoin trading volume.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>替代幣通常被定義為任何不是比特幣的加密貨幣。而替代幣季是指小型加密貨幣價格上漲的時期。通常表現為比特幣在加密市場的主導地位下降、消費者情緒的變化以及替代幣交易量的激增。</p>
</div><p>For example, in the 2017-2018 altcoin season, Bitcoin's share of the total market cap fell below 35% while altcoins topped 45%, according to CoinMarketCap data. Similarly, at points in 2021, altcoins and Bitcoin each accounted for about 40% of the cash in crypto.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，在 2017-2018 年的替代幣季，比特幣在總市值中的份額降至 35% 以下，而替代幣的份額超過 45%，根據 CoinMarketCap 的數據。類似地，在 2021 年的某些時點，替代幣和比特幣各自佔據了加密市場現金的約 40%。</p>
</div><p>We're a long way from that today. Bitcoin dominance is at almost 58%, with Ethereum at 13% and the rest of the altcoins at about 30%. The concentration of cash in Bitcoin has dropped slightly during the past month, but not enough to declare that altcoin season is upon us.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天我們距離那個時刻還很遙遠。比特幣的主導地位接近 58%，以太坊為 13%，其餘的替代幣約佔 30%。過去一個月，比特幣的現金集中度略有下降，但還不足以宣告替代幣季的到來。</p>
</div><p>Altcoin season can be a time when some of those high-risk projects deliver strong returns. &#34;Can&#34; is the key word here -- many altcoins never get off the starting block and some fail completely.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>替代幣季可能是一些高風險項目帶來強勁回報的時機。“可能” 是這裏的關鍵字——許多替代幣從未起步，有些則完全失敗。</p>
</div><h2>Why altcoin season hasn't arrived yet</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>為什麼替代幣季尚未到來</h2>
</div><p>It's almost a year since the cryptocurrency market started to shake off its long crypto winter. The crypto market cap set a new high in August. But as we've seen, only a few cryptos are driving those gains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>距離加密貨幣市場開始擺脱漫長的加密冬季已經快一年了。加密市場市值在 8 月創下新高。但正如我們所見，只有少數加密貨幣在推動這些漲幅。</p>
</div><p>That's partly because this bull run has been characterized by increasing institutional inflows and mainstream interest in cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology. So far, the SEC has only approved spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Institutional investors are more interested in established projects and less willing to take risks on more speculative tokens and coins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這部分是因為這次牛市的特點是機構資金流入和主流對加密貨幣及區塊鏈技術的興趣不斷增加。到目前為止，SEC 僅批准了現貨比特幣和以太坊 ETF。機構投資者更關注成熟項目，而不願意在更具投機性的代幣和幣種上冒險。</p>
</div><p>It isn't only institutional investors. Our research shows that if you had invested $200 in each of the top 20 altcoins during the last crypto boom four years ago, your portfolio would have been down about 30% as of a few weeks ago. Investors whose portfolios are still underwater may be more hesitant this time around.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這不僅僅是機構投資者。我們的研究顯示，如果你在四年前的最後一次加密熱潮中對前 20 個替代幣每個投資 200 美元，你的投資組合在幾周前將下跌約 30%。那些投資組合仍然處於虧損狀態的投資者這次可能會更加猶豫。</p>
</div><p>Plus, the last altcoin season took place in 2021, when interest rates were low and an injection of pandemic stimulus cash made investors more willing to take risks. It's also worth noting that there are now many millions of cryptocurrencies out there compared with previous cryptocurrency bull runs. CoinMarketCap data shows there are more than 21 million cryptos now compared with less than 21,000 in 2021. It's still possible to find hidden crypto gems, but it's a lot harder.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，上一次替代幣季發生在 2021 年，當時利率較低，疫情刺激資金的注入使得投資者更願意冒險。值得注意的是，現在的加密貨幣數量與之前的牛市相比多了數百萬個。CoinMarketCap 數據顯示，現在有超過 2100 萬個加密貨幣，而在 2021 年時不到 21000 個。雖然仍然可以找到隱藏的加密寶石，但難度大大增加。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzQzMjkvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ4Nzg0NzYyNC5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F834329%2Fgettyimages-1487847624.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Rate cut and SEC ETF approval could boost altcoins</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>降息和 SEC ETF 批准可能推動替代幣</h2>
</div><p>Two of the factors weighing on altcoin prices could be changing. Here's how:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>影響替代幣價格的兩個因素可能正在發生變化。以下是原因：</p>
</div><h3>1. Rate cuts may make investors more willing to take risk</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>1. 降息可能使投資者更願意冒險</h3>
</div><p>When interest rates are low, borrowing becomes cheaper. This can translate into more liquidity for riskier investments, including cryptocurrencies. Lower rates also make it harder for investors to earn decent yields on things like bonds and savings accounts, offering an incentive to consider riskier assets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當利率較低時，借貸變得更便宜。這可能轉化為對風險投資（包括加密貨幣）的更多流動性。較低的利率也使得投資者在債券和儲蓄賬户等投資中獲得合理收益變得更加困難，從而激勵他們考慮更具風險的資產。</p>
</div><h3>2. A slew of SEC altcoin ETF approvals could shift the balance</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>2. 大量 SEC 替代幣 ETF 批准可能改變局勢</h3>
</div><p>Spot altcoin ETFs would make it easier for both retail and institutional investors to invest. And we will probably see a lot more of them in the next month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現貨替代幣 ETF 將使零售和機構投資者更容易投資。我們可能會在下個月看到更多此類 ETF。</p>
</div><p>The SEC has just released new standards that would streamline the spot crypto ETF approval process. With about 90 crypto ETF applications already in the pipeline, this could open the floodgates. Not only that, but there will be more multi-crypto ETFs which would make it easier for investors to gain altcoin exposure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>SEC 剛剛發佈了新的標準，以簡化現貨加密 ETF 的批准流程。大約 90 個加密 ETF 申請已經在審批中，這可能會打開閘門。不僅如此，還會有更多的多種加密 ETF，這將使投資者更容易獲得替代幣的投資機會。</p>
</div><h2>Altcoin season is not guaranteed</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>替代幣季並非保證</h2>
</div><p>The boost from rate cuts and impending ETF approvals offers the best possible conditions for another altcoin season. However, every market cycle is different. The Fed's move hasn't triggered much of a crypto rally, in part because speculation had already pushed prices up beforehand. Not only that, but economic uncertainty and inflation concerns continue to weigh on investor sentiment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>降息和即將到來的 ETF 批准所帶來的推動力為另一個替代幣季提供了最佳可能條件。然而，每個市場週期都是不同的。美聯儲的舉措並沒有引發太多的加密反彈，部分原因是投機已經提前推高了價格。不僅如此，經濟不確定性和通貨膨脹的擔憂仍然影響着投資者情緒。</p>
</div><p>Anything is possible in the unpredictable world of crypto. But the sheer volume of altcoins means it's unlikely we will see another broad rise in altcoin prices. However, as the ETF approvals start to come through, certain projects with strong fundamentals or sectors with solid use cases may benefit from an injection of institutional cash.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在不可預測的加密世界中，一切皆有可能。但替代幣數量龐大意味着我們不太可能看到替代幣價格的再次大幅上漲。然而，隨着 ETF 批准的逐步落實，某些具有強大基本面或具有良好應用案例的項目可能會受益於機構資金的注入。</p>
</div><p>If you're considering adding altcoins to your portfolio, look for ways to manage the risk. For example, build a diversified mix of cryptocurrencies so you're not overly exposed to one or two sectors. And make sure that crypto only makes up a small part of your wider investments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你考慮將替代幣加入你的投資組合，請尋找管理風險的方法。例如，構建一個多樣化的加密貨幣組合，以避免過度暴露於一兩個領域。同時確保加密貨幣僅佔你更廣泛投資的一小部分。</p>
</div>

Will the Fed Rate Cut Trigger Altcoin Season?

- 加息預期的降低可能刺激加密貨幣價格上漲。  
- 比特幣和以太坊在公告後分別上漲 2% 和 3%。  
- 機構投資者對成熟項目的興趣限制了小幣種的表現。  

美聯儲的降息是否會引發山寨幣的活躍期？