<p>“七大巨頭” 是一些最大、最知名的科技公司。它們的表現可以作為整體行業狀況的一個衡量標準。如果它們表現良好並且支出較多，這可能會為整體經濟帶來顯著增長。</p>
<p>然而，這些股票中的一些表現遠遠好於其他股票。在過去幾年中，“七大巨頭” 中表現最弱的股票是 <strong>蘋果</strong>（AAPL -0.70%）。這家科技巨頭擁有巨大的影響力，因為其 iPhone 在全球範圍內常被視為地位的象徵。該公司仍然創造着鉅額利潤。</p>
<p>但蘋果股票最近的表現相對平平。情況會有所改變嗎？現在是否是一個被低估的買入時機？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzQwOTcvcGVyc29uLWxpc3RlbmluZy10by1tdXNpYy1vbi10aGVpci1waG9uZS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzQwOTcvcGVyc29uLWxpc3RlbmluZy10by1tdXNpYy1vbi10aGVpci1waG9uZS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>為什麼投資者對蘋果的股票不看好？</h2>
<p>蘋果是全球最有價值的公司之一，市值約為 3.8 萬億美元。然而，近年來它的股票表現不佳。自 2023 年以來，其價值幾乎翻了一番，但考慮到科技行業的增長，投資者在這一時間段內選擇 “七大巨頭” 中的任何其他股票都會更好。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c4edb131036ec6402ad08cefc7d08e68.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="541" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c4edb131036ec6402ad08cefc7d08e68.png"/></p>
<p>自 2023 年以來 “七大巨頭” 股票表現數據來源於 YCharts</p>
<p>在這段時間內，蘋果的表現好於 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong>（上漲約 74%），但在科技股飆升的時期，該公司卻是落後者而非領頭羊。</p>
<p>但這並不令人驚訝，因為該公司並沒有開發自己的聊天機器人，並且推遲了其 iPhone 人工智能（AI）功能的推出。雖然它對安全和隱私的關注是務實的，但並沒有贏得增長型投資者的青睞。人們擔心蘋果在當今科技領域並不是一個創新者。考慮到其龐大的生態系統和全球約 14 億 iPhone 用户，它可能沒有太多動力去快速推出新產品和服務。</p>
<h2>如果蘋果不再是頂尖科技股，它的估值是否應該調整？</h2>
<p>蘋果的業務非常出色，盈利能力極高。在過去 12 個月中，其淨收入總計近 1000 億美元，利潤率達到令人印象深刻的 24%，而在此期間的總收入為 4090 億美元。</p>
<p>但如果公司增長速度不快，且其增長前景沒有發生重大變化，那麼就會質疑該股票的溢價是否合理。目前，蘋果股票的市盈率（P/E）為 37。然而，該公司在過去三個季度的銷售總額為 3137 億美元，同比增長僅略低於 6%。</p>
<p>在這樣的增長率下，我認為該股票的市盈率應該遠低於 30。雖然人工智能是該業務的一個重要變量，可能會觸發 iPhone 的升級週期並解鎖更多增長，但未來仍然是一個大問號。如果蘋果能夠證明其懷疑者是錯誤的，並在人工智能領域取得成功，那麼該股票可能會迎來反彈，但在這個階段幾乎沒有理由期待這種情況。</p>
<h2>蘋果的業務非常出色，但投資者不應忽視其高估值</h2>
<p>不可否認的是，蘋果在智能手機市場的主導地位。但考慮到其未來的諸多不確定性，以及其 iPhone 與其他人工智能手機的競爭力，股票理應以折扣而非目前的高溢價進行交易。雖然從 iPhone 切換到其他品牌的手機可能並不容易，但隨着時間的推移，消費者可能會因缺乏創新而感到沮喪。</p>
<p>多年來，蘋果並不是一家領先的創新公司，而人工智能的興起只是突顯了它在當今科技領域的落後。如果它無法迅速説服投資者相信自己走在正確的軌道上，該股票可能會繼續表現不佳，而更大的風險是它可能面臨大幅修正。</p>
<p>股票的高估值是一個問題，因為如果你今天決定投資蘋果，幾乎沒有安全邊際。因此，至少在目前，我不會購買該股票，而是採取觀望的態度。</p>

蘋果

2 倍做多 AAPL ETF - GraniteShares

蘋果每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

蘋果每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

AAPX

AAPY

APLY

<p>蘋果（AAPL）與 “七大科技巨頭” 中的同行相比表現不佳，儘管它是一家盈利能力強、市值達到 3.8 萬億美元的公司。雖然其股票在 2023 年幾乎翻了一番，但仍落後於科技行業的增長。對其缺乏創新，尤其是在人工智能領域的擔憂，以及 37 的高市盈率表明該股票可能被高估。分析師建議採取謹慎的態度，建議在蘋果的增長前景改善之前不要購買其股票</p>

<p>The &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; is a collection of some of the largest, most recognizable names in tech. How they perform can serve as a gauge of how the overall sector is doing. And with deep pockets, if they're doing well and spending a lot of money, that can result in a lot of growth for the overall economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“七大巨頭” 是一些最大、最知名的科技公司。它們的表現可以作為整體行業狀況的一個衡量標準。如果它們表現良好並且支出較多，這可能會為整體經濟帶來顯著增長。</p>
</div><p>Some of those stocks, however, have been doing far better than others. The weakest performer in the Magnificent Seven over the past couple of years has been <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL -0.70%). The tech giant yields significant power as its iPhones are often seen as status symbols all over the globe. And the business still generates mammoth profits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，這些股票中的一些表現遠遠好於其他股票。在過去幾年中，“七大巨頭” 中表現最弱的股票是 <strong>蘋果</strong>（AAPL -0.70%）。這家科技巨頭擁有巨大的影響力，因為其 iPhone 在全球範圍內常被視為地位的象徵。該公司仍然創造着鉅額利潤。</p>
</div><p>But Apple stock has nonetheless been a relatively lackluster buy of late. Could that change, and is it an underrated buy right now?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但蘋果股票最近的表現相對平平。情況會有所改變嗎？現在是否是一個被低估的買入時機？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzQwOTcvcGVyc29uLWxpc3RlbmluZy10by1tdXNpYy1vbi10aGVpci1waG9uZS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F834097%2Fperson-listening-to-music-on-their-phone.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Why have investors been down on Apple's stock?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>為什麼投資者對蘋果的股票不看好？</h2>
</div><p>Apple is one of the most valuable companies in the world, with its market cap hovering around $3.8 trillion. And yet, it has been an underperforming stock to own in recent years. Since 2023, it has nearly doubled in value, but given the growth in the tech sector, investors would have been better off going with any other stock in the Magnificent Seven over that time frame.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果是全球最有價值的公司之一，市值約為 3.8 萬億美元。然而，近年來它的股票表現不佳。自 2023 年以來，其價值幾乎翻了一番，但考慮到科技行業的增長，投資者在這一時間段內選擇 “七大巨頭” 中的任何其他股票都會更好。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c4edb131036ec6402ad08cefc7d08e68.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c4edb131036ec6402ad08cefc7d08e68.png"/></p>
<p>&#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; stock performance since 2023 data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2023 年以來 “七大巨頭” 股票表現數據來源於 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Apple has done better than the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> (which is up around 74%) over that stretch, but at a time when tech stocks have been soaring, the company has been a laggard rather than a leader.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這段時間內，蘋果的表現好於 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong>（上漲約 74%），但在科技股飆升的時期，該公司卻是落後者而非領頭羊。</p>
</div><p>But it's not exactly a surprise, given that the company hasn't been developing its own chatbot, and it has delayed the rollout of artificial intelligence (AI) features for its iPhones. Its focus on safety and privacy is practical, but it hasn't been winning over growth investors. The concern is that Apple isn't much of an innovator in tech these days. And with its massive ecosystem and the roughly 1.4 billion iPhone users in the world, it may not see a whole lot of incentive in rushing new products and services out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但這並不令人驚訝，因為該公司並沒有開發自己的聊天機器人，並且推遲了其 iPhone 人工智能（AI）功能的推出。雖然它對安全和隱私的關注是務實的，但並沒有贏得增長型投資者的青睞。人們擔心蘋果在當今科技領域並不是一個創新者。考慮到其龐大的生態系統和全球約 14 億 iPhone 用户，它可能沒有太多動力去快速推出新產品和服務。</p>
</div><h2>Does Apple's valuation deserve a trim if it's no longer a top tech stock?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>如果蘋果不再是頂尖科技股，它的估值是否應該調整？</h2>
</div><p>Apple has a phenomenal business, and it is highly profitable. Over the trailing 12 months, its net income has totaled nearly $100 billion, which translates into an impressive 24% profit margin as its revenue over that stretch totaled $409 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果的業務非常出色，盈利能力極高。在過去 12 個月中，其淨收入總計近 1000 億美元，利潤率達到令人印象深刻的 24%，而在此期間的總收入為 4090 億美元。</p>
</div><p>But if the company isn't growing at a fast pace and its growth prospects don't change drastically, it calls into question whether the premium the stock trades at is warranted. Currently, Apple stock trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 37. And yet, the company's sales over the past three quarters have totaled $313.7 billion, representing a modest year-over-year increase of just under 6%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但如果公司增長速度不快，且其增長前景沒有發生重大變化，那麼就會質疑該股票的溢價是否合理。目前，蘋果股票的市盈率（P/E）為 37。然而，該公司在過去三個季度的銷售總額為 3137 億美元，同比增長僅略低於 6%。</p>
</div><p>At that kind of growth rate, I believe the stock should be trading at a P/E multiple of far less than 30. While AI is the big wildcard for the business, which could trigger upgrade cycles in its iPhones and unlock more growth, it's still a big question mark moving forward. If Apple can prove its doubters wrong and be a winner in AI, then the stock may be due for a rally, but there's little reason to expect that will be the case at this stage.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這樣的增長率下，我認為該股票的市盈率應該遠低於 30。雖然人工智能是該業務的一個重要變量，可能會觸發 iPhone 的升級週期並解鎖更多增長，但未來仍然是一個大問號。如果蘋果能夠證明其懷疑者是錯誤的，並在人工智能領域取得成功，那麼該股票可能會迎來反彈，但在這個階段幾乎沒有理由期待這種情況。</p>
</div><h2>Apple has a terrific business, but investors shouldn't overlook its high valuation</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>蘋果的業務非常出色，但投資者不應忽視其高估值</h2>
</div><p>There's no denying Apple's dominance in the smartphone market. But given all the question marks around its future and how competitive its iPhones will be with other AI-powered phones, the stock should arguably be trading at a discount rather than a hefty premium, as it is now. It may not be easy to switch from an iPhone to another phone brand, but over time, consumers may get frustrated with lackluster innovation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不可否認的是，蘋果在智能手機市場的主導地位。但考慮到其未來的諸多不確定性，以及其 iPhone 與其他人工智能手機的競爭力，股票理應以折扣而非目前的高溢價進行交易。雖然從 iPhone 切換到其他品牌的手機可能並不容易，但隨着時間的推移，消費者可能會因缺乏創新而感到沮喪。</p>
</div><p>Apple hasn't been a leading innovating company for many years, and the AI boom is simply highlighting what kind of a laggard it is in tech these days. And if it can't quickly convince investors that it's on the right track, the stock may continue to underperform its peers, and the bigger danger is that it may be due for a sizable correction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>多年來，蘋果並不是一家領先的創新公司，而人工智能的興起只是突顯了它在當今科技領域的落後。如果它無法迅速説服投資者相信自己走在正確的軌道上，該股票可能會繼續表現不佳，而更大的風險是它可能面臨大幅修正。</p>
</div><p>The stock's high valuation is a problem as it leaves minimal-to-no margin of safety if you decide to invest in Apple today. And that's why, at least for the time being, I wouldn't buy the stock and instead take a wait-and-see approach with it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股票的高估值是一個問題，因為如果你今天決定投資蘋果，幾乎沒有安全邊際。因此，至少在目前，我不會購買該股票，而是採取觀望的態度。</p>
</div>

This "Magnificent Seven" Stock Has Badly Underperformed Its Peers. Could It Be an Underrated Buy?

- 蘋果公司在 “七大巨頭” 中表現較弱，股價增長緩慢。  
- 儘管其利潤可觀，但缺乏創新和 AI 發展滯後影響投資者信心。  
- 當前高估值使得投資風險增加，建議觀望。  

這隻 “七大傑出” 股票的表現遠不如其同行。它可能是一個被低估的買入機會嗎？