<p><strong>Opendoor Technologies</strong>（OPEN -15.15%），這個在線買賣房屋的平台，本週再次經歷了劇烈的股價波動。在最近幾個月強勁上漲後，該股在週一下跌，並在盤後繼續下滑。更廣泛的風險規避情緒，包括加密貨幣的急劇拋售和槓桿押注的解除，對該股造成了壓力。最近的回調給投資者提出了一個重要問題：這是一個買入機會，還是需要保持謹慎的信號？</p>
<p>Opendoor 的商業模式很簡單：利用數據進行即時現金報價，翻新房屋，然後轉售以賺取差價和相關費用。雖然這種方法在穩定的房地產市場中可以奏效，但當前環境依然緩慢且對利率敏感。隨着股價經歷顯著波動，關鍵問題是 Opendoor 能否在時間上持續創造價值，而不僅僅是把握反彈時機。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzQ2MzEvb3Blbi1zdG9jay5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzQ2MzEvb3Blbi1zdG9jay5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>最近的表現及管理層的看法</h2>
<p>Opendoor 最近的季度更新提供了進展和背景。在第二季度，Opendoor Technologies 的收入為 16 億美元，同比增長略微上升，並較上一季度顯著增長。毛利潤為 1.28 億美元，公司調整後的 EBITDA 為 2300 萬美元，同時將淨虧損縮減至 2900 萬美元。關於 Opendoor 一些最重要的業務指標，公司售出了 4299 套房屋，購買了 1757 套，並將庫存減少至 15 億美元，或 4538 套房屋，相比一年前有所下降。</p>
<p>在公司的第二季度財報中，當時的首席執行官 Carrie Wheeler 指出，儘管房地產市場環境惡化，團隊 “實現了自 2022 年以來的首個調整後 EBITDA 盈利季度”，並強調擴展 “以代理為主導的分銷平台”，以通過低資本、合作伙伴驅動的產品接觸更多賣家。</p>
<p>這些結果有助於解釋推動股價上漲的樂觀情緒。Opendoor 顯示出改善的單位經濟、更加緊湊的庫存管理，以及在通過合作代理擴展其覆蓋範圍的同時更高效地運營的能力。</p>
<p>然而，同一報告也突顯了持續的挑戰。貢獻利潤率從一年前的 6.3% 下降至 4.4%，房屋收購顯著下降，庫存中仍包括老舊房屋，這可能在市場條件變化時對差價造成壓力。管理層對第三季度的指引預計收入將下降，並且調整後的 EBITDA 將再次為負，反映出較低的交易量和更緊的差價的影響。</p>
<h2>及時的領導層更新及其信號</h2>
<p>投資者還應仔細考慮領導層和激勵機制的角度。上週，Opendoor 宣佈為新任首席執行官 Kaz Nejatian 提供誘導性股權獎勵。該方案包括約 158 萬股限制性股票單位（RSUs）的補償性授予，以及兩個分別約 4090 萬股的基於業績的股票單位（PSUs）獎勵。</p>
<p>這些獎勵僅在滿足嚴格的時間和股價門檻後才能歸屬，起始的平均 60 天價格為 6.24 美元，並逐步上升至高達 33 美元的目標，具有五年的業績窗口和在更高價格下的控制權變更保護。這是經典的 “按績效支付”。如果股價在一段時間內持續大幅上漲，Nejatian 將獲得豐厚回報；否則，大部分獎勵將無法歸屬。</p>
<p>對於投資者來説，新首席執行官的股權方案表明董事會專注於通過改善執行來推動上行，轉向更多資本輕型收入和更緊湊的運營。同時，雄心勃勃的目標和獎勵結構突顯了仍需協調的眾多因素——如轉售差價、收購速度和成功的合作關係——以實現這些價格目標。</p>
<h2>估值、波動性和週一的拋售</h2>
<p>短期市場強化了風險。週一的下滑發生在投機資產動盪之際。<strong>比特幣</strong> 和其他主要代幣急劇下跌，超過 15 億美元的槓桿加密貨幣多頭被清算，削弱了市場的風險偏好，而 Opendoor 最近在某些市場中表現得像一個熱門股票。股價在盤後進一步下跌，常被引用的消息源顯示該股在收盤後進一步下跌。</p>
<p>最近的波動提醒人們，Opendoor 尚未成為一個穩定的複合增長者。儘管回調，該股年初至今的漲幅仍然顯著，主要由市場情緒驅動。管理層的指引顯示，隨着房地產市場持續疲軟，本季度收入將下降，調整後的 EBITDA 將再次為負。如果差價縮小或轉售時間延長，即使是小的變化也可能對結果產生重大影響。儘管存在這些擔憂，截至目前，該公司的市值超過 60 億美元——這一估值預示着未來幾年出色的執行。</p>
<p>新的領導層、擴展的代理主導渠道以及對精簡運營的關注，可能會幫助 Opendoor 在未來成為一個更強大、資本需求更低的企業。此外，第二季度的正向調整 EBITDA 表明該模型在某些條件下是可行的。</p>
<p>然而，當前的指引、薄弱的貢獻利潤率和持續的波動性表明，大多數投資者最好等待更穩定的盈利能力和更清晰的證據，證明資本輕型收入能夠擴展。穩定盈利季度的業績記錄（或從此大幅拋售）將提供比試圖在由風險規避情緒驅動的急劇（但可能不足的）回調中買入更具吸引力的入場點。</p>

OPEN

<p>Opendoor Technologies 的股票經歷了顯著的波動，在強勁上漲後急劇下跌。該公司最近的季度更新顯示收入為 16 億美元，淨虧損有所減少，但管理層預計下個季度收入將下降，調整後的息税折舊攤銷前利潤（EBITDA）為負。新任首席執行官 Kaz Nejatian 的股權激勵方案強調基於業績的激勵，反映了董事會對改善執行力的關注。儘管市值超過 60 億美元，但房地產市場的持續挑戰和微薄的利潤率表明，考慮此次回調作為買入機會的投資者應保持謹慎</p>

<p><strong>Opendoor Technologies</strong>(OPEN -15.15%), the online home-buying and selling platform, saw its shares swing sharply again this week. After a strong run in recent months, the stock declined on Monday and continued to fall after hours. Broader risk-off sentiment, including a sharp sell-off in cryptocurrencies and the unwinding of leveraged bets, weighed on the stock. The recent pullback raises an important question for investors: Is this a buying opportunity, or does it signal the need for caution?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Opendoor Technologies</strong>（OPEN -15.15%），這個在線買賣房屋的平台，本週再次經歷了劇烈的股價波動。在最近幾個月強勁上漲後，該股在週一下跌，並在盤後繼續下滑。更廣泛的風險規避情緒，包括加密貨幣的急劇拋售和槓桿押注的解除，對該股造成了壓力。最近的回調給投資者提出了一個重要問題：這是一個買入機會，還是需要保持謹慎的信號？</p>
</div><p>Opendoor's business model is straightforward: Use data to make instant cash offers, renovate homes, and resell them to earn a spread and related fees. While this approach can work in stable housing markets, the current environment remains slow and sensitive to interest rates. With the stock experiencing significant volatility, the key question is whether Opendoor can deliver consistent value creation over time, rather than simply timing a rebound.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Opendoor 的商業模式很簡單：利用數據進行即時現金報價，翻新房屋，然後轉售以賺取差價和相關費用。雖然這種方法在穩定的房地產市場中可以奏效，但當前環境依然緩慢且對利率敏感。隨着股價經歷顯著波動，關鍵問題是 Opendoor 能否在時間上持續創造價值，而不僅僅是把握反彈時機。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzQ2MzEvb3Blbi1zdG9jay5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F834631%2Fopen-stock.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Recent performance and what management said</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>最近的表現及管理層的看法</h2>
</div><p>Opendoor's latest quarterly update offered both progress and context. In the second quarter, Opendoor Technologies generated $1.6 billion in revenue, up slightly year over year and up meaningfully from the prior quarter. Gross profit was $128 million, and the company posted $23 million of adjusted EBITDA, while shrinking its net loss to $29 million. Regarding some of Opendoor's most important business metrics, the company sold 4,299 homes, purchased 1,757, and reduced inventory to $1.5 billion, or 4,538 homes, versus a year earlier.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Opendoor 最近的季度更新提供了進展和背景。在第二季度，Opendoor Technologies 的收入為 16 億美元，同比增長略微上升，並較上一季度顯著增長。毛利潤為 1.28 億美元，公司調整後的 EBITDA 為 2300 萬美元，同時將淨虧損縮減至 2900 萬美元。關於 Opendoor 一些最重要的業務指標，公司售出了 4299 套房屋，購買了 1757 套，並將庫存減少至 15 億美元，或 4538 套房屋，相比一年前有所下降。</p>
</div><p>In the company's Q2 earnings release, then-CEO Carrie Wheeler noted that the team &#34;achieved our first quarter of Adjusted EBITDA profitability since 2022&#34; despite a deteriorating housing backdrop and emphasized expanding an &#34;agent-led distribution platform&#34; to reach more sellers with lower-capital, partner-driven offerings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在公司的第二季度財報中，當時的首席執行官 Carrie Wheeler 指出，儘管房地產市場環境惡化，團隊 “實現了自 2022 年以來的首個調整後 EBITDA 盈利季度”，並強調擴展 “以代理為主導的分銷平台”，以通過低資本、合作伙伴驅動的產品接觸更多賣家。</p>
</div><p>These results help explain the optimism that has driven the stock higher. Opendoor is showing signs of improved unit economics, tighter inventory management, and the ability to operate more efficiently while expanding its reach through partner agents.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些結果有助於解釋推動股價上漲的樂觀情緒。Opendoor 顯示出改善的單位經濟、更加緊湊的庫存管理，以及在通過合作代理擴展其覆蓋範圍的同時更高效地運營的能力。</p>
</div><p>However, the same report highlighted ongoing challenges. Contribution margin declined to 4.4% from 6.3% a year ago, home acquisitions fell significantly, and the inventory still includes older homes, which could pressure spreads if market conditions change. Management's guidance for the third quarter calls for lower revenue and a return to negative adjusted EBITDA, reflecting the effect of lower volumes and tighter spreads.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，同一報告也突顯了持續的挑戰。貢獻利潤率從一年前的 6.3% 下降至 4.4%，房屋收購顯著下降，庫存中仍包括老舊房屋，這可能在市場條件變化時對差價造成壓力。管理層對第三季度的指引預計收入將下降，並且調整後的 EBITDA 將再次為負，反映出較低的交易量和更緊的差價的影響。</p>
</div><h2>A timely leadership update -- and what it signals</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>及時的領導層更新及其信號</h2>
</div><p>There's also a leadership and incentives angle that investors should weigh carefully. Last week, Opendoor announced inducement equity grants for newly appointed CEO Kaz Nejatian. The package includes a make-whole grant of about 1.58 million RSUs and two separate performance-based PSU awards of roughly 40.9 million shares each.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者還應仔細考慮領導層和激勵機制的角度。上週，Opendoor 宣佈為新任首席執行官 Kaz Nejatian 提供誘導性股權獎勵。該方案包括約 158 萬股限制性股票單位（RSUs）的補償性授予，以及兩個分別約 4090 萬股的基於業績的股票單位（PSUs）獎勵。</p>
</div><p>These vest only upon meeting stringent time and share-price hurdles starting at an average 60-day price of $6.24 and stair-stepping through targets as high as $33, with five-year performance windows and change-in-control protections structured at higher prices. This is classic &#34;pay for performance.&#34; If the stock sustains dramatically higher prices over time, Nejatian wins big; if not, most of the grant won't vest.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些獎勵僅在滿足嚴格的時間和股價門檻後才能歸屬，起始的平均 60 天價格為 6.24 美元，並逐步上升至高達 33 美元的目標，具有五年的業績窗口和在更高價格下的控制權變更保護。這是經典的 “按績效支付”。如果股價在一段時間內持續大幅上漲，Nejatian 將獲得豐厚回報；否則，大部分獎勵將無法歸屬。</p>
</div><p>For investors, the new CEO's equity package signals the board's focus on driving upside through improved execution, a shift toward more capital-light revenue, and tighter operations. At the same time, the ambitious targets and structure of the awards highlight the many factors that still need to align -- such as resale spreads, acquisition pace, and successful partnerships -- to reach those price goals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於投資者來説，新首席執行官的股權方案表明董事會專注於通過改善執行來推動上行，轉向更多資本輕型收入和更緊湊的運營。同時，雄心勃勃的目標和獎勵結構突顯了仍需協調的眾多因素——如轉售差價、收購速度和成功的合作關係——以實現這些價格目標。</p>
</div><h2>Valuation, volatility, and Monday's sell-off</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>估值、波動性和週一的拋售</h2>
</div><p>The near-term tape reinforces the risk. Monday's slide came as speculative assets wobbled. <strong>Bitcoin</strong> and other major tokens fell sharply, and more than $1.5 billion of leveraged crypto longs were liquidated, draining risk appetite across corners of the market where Opendoor has recently traded like a meme favorite. Shares extended losses after hours, with commonly referenced feeds showing the stock down further from the close.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>短期市場強化了風險。週一的下滑發生在投機資產動盪之際。<strong>比特幣</strong> 和其他主要代幣急劇下跌，超過 15 億美元的槓桿加密貨幣多頭被清算，削弱了市場的風險偏好，而 Opendoor 最近在某些市場中表現得像一個熱門股票。股價在盤後進一步下跌，常被引用的消息源顯示該股在收盤後進一步下跌。</p>
</div><p>This recent volatility serves as a reminder that Opendoor is not yet a steady compounder. Despite the pullback, the stock's year-to-date gains remain significant and largely driven by sentiment. Management's guidance points to lower revenue and a return to negative adjusted EBITDA this quarter as the housing market stays soft. If spreads narrow or resale timelines extend, even small changes could have a meaningful effect on results. Despite these concerns, the company boasts a market capitalization of more than $6 billion as of this writing -- a valuation that prices in outstanding execution for years to come.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近的波動提醒人們，Opendoor 尚未成為一個穩定的複合增長者。儘管回調，該股年初至今的漲幅仍然顯著，主要由市場情緒驅動。管理層的指引顯示，隨着房地產市場持續疲軟，本季度收入將下降，調整後的 EBITDA 將再次為負。如果差價縮小或轉售時間延長，即使是小的變化也可能對結果產生重大影響。儘管存在這些擔憂，截至目前，該公司的市值超過 60 億美元——這一估值預示着未來幾年出色的執行。</p>
</div><p>New leadership, an expanding agent-led channel, and a focus on leaner operations could help Opendoor become a stronger, less capital-intensive business over time. Additionally, the positive adjusted EBITDA in Q2 shows that the model can work under certain conditions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新的領導層、擴展的代理主導渠道以及對精簡運營的關注，可能會幫助 Opendoor 在未來成為一個更強大、資本需求更低的企業。此外，第二季度的正向調整 EBITDA 表明該模型在某些條件下是可行的。</p>
</div><p>However, current guidance, thin contribution margins, and ongoing volatility suggest that most investors would be better served by waiting for more consistent profitability and clearer evidence that capital-light revenue can scale. A track record of steady, profitable quarters (or a massive sell-off from here) would offer a more attractive entry point than trying to buy into a sharp (but arguably insufficient) pullback driven by risk-off sentiment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，當前的指引、薄弱的貢獻利潤率和持續的波動性表明，大多數投資者最好等待更穩定的盈利能力和更清晰的證據，證明資本輕型收入能夠擴展。穩定盈利季度的業績記錄（或從此大幅拋售）將提供比試圖在由風險規避情緒驅動的急劇（但可能不足的）回調中買入更具吸引力的入場點。</p>
</div>

Opendoor Technologies 股票的回調是否是一個買入機會？