<p>半導體（芯片）就像科技世界中的無名英雄。你看不見它們，但它們是幾乎每個我們日常接觸的電子設備背後的大腦。而在半導體制造方面，沒有比名副其實的 <strong>台積電</strong>（TSM -1.17%）更優秀的公司了。</p>
<p>台積電是全球領先的半導體代工廠，市場份額遠超其他競爭對手，約佔 70%，而排名第二的 <strong>三星</strong> 市場份額僅約 7%。代工模式意味着台積電並不生產供一般銷售的芯片。相反，公司會設計所需的芯片，台積電則利用其製造能力將其實現。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzMwMzAvdGFpd2FuLXNlbWljb25kdWN0b3ItdHNtYy1idWlsZGluZy13aXRoLXRzbWMtbG9nby1pbi1mcm9udF90c21jLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="420" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzMwMzAvdGFpd2FuLXNlbWljb25kdWN0b3ItdHNtYy1idWlsZGluZy13aXRoLXRzbWMtbG9nby1pbi1mcm9udF90c21jLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：台積電。</p>
<p>截至本文撰寫時，台積電的市值約為 1.4 萬億美元。要在 2028 年前達到 2 萬億美元的市值，它需要在未來幾年內平均實現約 14% 的年回報率。雖然過去的表現不能用來預測未來，但考慮到公司的增長前景以及過去十年 29% 的平均年回報率，我相信這是可能的。</p>
<h2>台積電在人工智能生態系統中的角色</h2>
<p>台積電並不是典型的人工智能（AI）股票，因為它沒有生成式 AI 應用或其他人們互動的軟件。然而，它在 AI 生態系統中的角色與幾乎任何你能想到的股票一樣重要。</p>
<p>像 <strong>英偉達</strong>、<strong>AMD</strong> 和 <strong>谷歌</strong> 這樣的公司都設計芯片和其他硬件，以支持數據中心，這些數據中心本質上是訓練和開發 AI 模型的基礎。然而，若沒有台積電的先進製造能力，這一切都不可能實現。</p>
<p>在製造先進 AI 芯片方面，台積電幾乎是唯一的選擇。沒有它，可以合理地認為數據中心的效率會降低，這意味着 AI 訓練的效率也會降低，這也意味着我們今天接觸的許多 AI 應用將會能力不足且難以擴展。</p>
<h2>台積電正在改善其利潤和利潤率</h2>
<p>台積電長期以來一直是一個令人印象深刻的賺錢機器，但在過去幾年中，它的表現有了很大提升。在第二季度，它的收入達到了 300 億美元，同比增長 44%，比第一季度高出近 18%。如果其第三季度收入在 318 億美元到 330 億美元之間，如其預測的那樣，這將代表 35% 到 40% 的同比增長。</p>
<p>在英偉達最新的財報中，它提到預計到 2030 年，AI 基礎設施的市場規模將達到 3 萬億到 4 萬億美元。由於台積電是 AI 基礎設施的關鍵組成部分，這對公司來説無疑是個好消息。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4b95665eb65d5d8f647c27017a06d738.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4b95665eb65d5d8f647c27017a06d738.png"/></p>
<p>台積電季度收入數據來源於 YCharts</p>
<p>收入增長令人印象深刻，但台積電擴大的利潤率可能更值得關注。自去年以來，其利潤率從 36.8% 擴大到 42.7%，毛利率從 53.2% 擴大到 56.8%，營業利潤率從 42.5% 擴大到 49.6%。</p>
<p>這些擴大的利潤率證明了台積電憑藉其先進的製造能力能夠收取溢價，客户也知道如果想要最強大的芯片，台積電幾乎是唯一的選擇。</p>
<h2>對於長期投資者來説，台積電的估值良好</h2>
<p>台積電目前的市盈率約為未來 12 個月預期收益的 23.5 倍。雖然按大多數標準來看並不 “便宜”，但對於一家像台積電這樣佔據主導地位並具有增長潛力的公司來説，似乎是個不錯的價值。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/cb806a61d7d49c9a0aa4428f768aa42b.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/cb806a61d7d49c9a0aa4428f768aa42b.png"/></p>
<p>台積電市盈率（未來 1 年）數據來源於 YCharts</p>
<p>台積電的先進製造能力不是容易追趕和複製的，因為這需要多年的經驗和數十億美元的研發和設備投資。這賦予了它一種競爭優勢，這種優勢可能會持續相當長的時間，尤其是因為客户在不冒風險的情況下很難更換製造商。</p>
<p>這種優勢讓我相信，台積電在未來幾年內可以進入 2 萬億美元俱樂部。</p>

台積電

半導體 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>台灣半導體制造公司（TSMC）預計將在 2028 年加入 2 萬億美元俱樂部，目前市值為 1.4 萬億美元。TSMC 在半導體制造領域佔有 70% 的市場份額，這對人工智能基礎設施至關重要。該公司顯示出令人印象深刻的收入增長，第二季度同比增長 44%，利潤率也在擴大。TSMC 的交易市盈率為 23.5 倍，因其在先進製造方面的競爭優勢，被視為有價值的長期投資</p>

<p>Semiconductors (chips) are kind of like the unsung heroes of the tech world. You don't see them, yet they're the brains that power almost every electronic device that we interact with daily. And there's nobody better at manufacturing semiconductors than the appropriately named <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company</strong>(TSM -1.17%), also known as TSMC.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>半導體（芯片）就像科技世界中的無名英雄。你看不見它們，但它們是幾乎每個我們日常接觸的電子設備背後的大腦。而在半導體制造方面，沒有比名副其實的 <strong>台積電</strong>（TSM -1.17%）更優秀的公司了。</p>
</div><p>TSMC is the world's leading semiconductor foundry by a large margin. It has around a 70% market share, while second-place <strong>Samsung</strong>'s market share is only around 7%. The foundry model means that TSMC doesn't make chips for general sale. Instead, companies will design the chips they need for their products, and TSMC will use its manufacturing ability to bring them to life.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>台積電是全球領先的半導體代工廠，市場份額遠超其他競爭對手，約佔 70%，而排名第二的 <strong>三星</strong> 市場份額僅約 7%。代工模式意味着台積電並不生產供一般銷售的芯片。相反，公司會設計所需的芯片，台積電則利用其製造能力將其實現。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzMwMzAvdGFpd2FuLXNlbWljb25kdWN0b3ItdHNtYy1idWlsZGluZy13aXRoLXRzbWMtbG9nby1pbi1mcm9udF90c21jLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F833030%2Ftaiwan-semiconductor-tsmc-building-with-tsmc-logo-in-front_tsmc.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：台積電。</p>
</div><p>At the time of this writing, TSMC's market cap is around $1.4 trillion. To hit the $2 trillion mark by 2028, it would need to average around 14% annual returns over the next few years. You should never use past performances to predict future ones, but given the company's growth prospects and its 29% average annual returns over the past decade, I'm confident it can happen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至本文撰寫時，台積電的市值約為 1.4 萬億美元。要在 2028 年前達到 2 萬億美元的市值，它需要在未來幾年內平均實現約 14% 的年回報率。雖然過去的表現不能用來預測未來，但考慮到公司的增長前景以及過去十年 29% 的平均年回報率，我相信這是可能的。</p>
</div><h2>TSMC's role in the AI ecosystem</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>台積電在人工智能生態系統中的角色</h2>
</div><p>TSMC isn't your typical artificial intelligence (AI) stock in the sense that it has a generative AI app or other software people interact with. Yet its role in the AI ecosystem is as important as almost any stock you can name.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>台積電並不是典型的人工智能（AI）股票，因為它沒有生成式 AI 應用或其他人們互動的軟件。然而，它在 AI 生態系統中的角色與幾乎任何你能想到的股票一樣重要。</p>
</div><p>Companies like <strong>Nvidia</strong>, <strong>AMD</strong>, and <strong>Alphabet</strong> all design chips and other hardware that power data centers, which are essentially the backbones of training and developing AI models. Yet most of this wouldn't be possible without TSMC's advanced manufacturing ability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>像 <strong>英偉達</strong>、<strong>AMD</strong> 和 <strong>谷歌</strong> 這樣的公司都設計芯片和其他硬件，以支持數據中心，這些數據中心本質上是訓練和開發 AI 模型的基礎。然而，若沒有台積電的先進製造能力，這一切都不可能實現。</p>
</div><p>When it comes to manufacturing advanced AI chips, TSMC is essentially the only go-to. Without it, you could make a valid argument that data centers would be less efficient, which means that AI training would be less efficient, which means many of the AI applications we interact with today would be less capable and scalable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在製造先進 AI 芯片方面，台積電幾乎是唯一的選擇。沒有它，可以合理地認為數據中心的效率會降低，這意味着 AI 訓練的效率也會降低，這也意味着我們今天接觸的許多 AI 應用將會能力不足且難以擴展。</p>
</div><h2>TSMC is improving its profit and margins</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>台積電正在改善其利潤和利潤率</h2>
</div><p>TSMC has long been an impressive moneymaker, but it has stepped it up a lot in the past few years. In the second quarter, it made $30 billion in revenue, which was up 44% year over year and close to 18% higher than the first quarter. If its third-quarter revenue falls between $31.8 billion and $33 billion, as it predicts, that will represent between 35% and 40% year-over-year growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>台積電長期以來一直是一個令人印象深刻的賺錢機器，但在過去幾年中，它的表現有了很大提升。在第二季度，它的收入達到了 300 億美元，同比增長 44%，比第一季度高出近 18%。如果其第三季度收入在 318 億美元到 330 億美元之間，如其預測的那樣，這將代表 35% 到 40% 的同比增長。</p>
</div><p>In Nvidia's latest earnings report, it noted that it expects $3 trillion to $4 trillion in AI infrastructure through 2030. With TSMC being a key part of AI infrastructure, this should be music to the company's ears.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在英偉達最新的財報中，它提到預計到 2030 年，AI 基礎設施的市場規模將達到 3 萬億到 4 萬億美元。由於台積電是 AI 基礎設施的關鍵組成部分，這對公司來説無疑是個好消息。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4b95665eb65d5d8f647c27017a06d738.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4b95665eb65d5d8f647c27017a06d738.png"/></p>
<p>TSM Revenue (Quarterly) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>台積電季度收入數據來源於 YCharts</p>
</div><p>The revenue growth is impressive, but TSMC's expanding margins may be the most noteworthy. Since last year, its profit margin has expanded from 36.8% to 42.7%, gross margin has expanded from 53.2% to 56.8%, and operating margin has expanded from 42.5% to 49.6%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>收入增長令人印象深刻，但台積電擴大的利潤率可能更值得關注。自去年以來，其利潤率從 36.8% 擴大到 42.7%，毛利率從 53.2% 擴大到 56.8%，營業利潤率從 42.5% 擴大到 49.6%。</p>
</div><p>These expanding margins are a testament to TSMC's ability to command premium pricing because of its advanced manufacturing ability, and its customers knowing that it's essentially their only choice if they want the most powerful chips.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些擴大的利潤率證明了台積電憑藉其先進的製造能力能夠收取溢價，客户也知道如果想要最強大的芯片，台積電幾乎是唯一的選擇。</p>
</div><h2>TSMC is trading at a good value for long-term investors</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>對於長期投資者來説，台積電的估值良好</h2>
</div><p>TSMC is currently trading at around 23.5 times its projected earnings for the next 12 months. It's not &#34;cheap&#34; by most standards, but it also seems like a good value for a company that's as dominant as TSMC and has its growth potential.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>台積電目前的市盈率約為未來 12 個月預期收益的 23.5 倍。雖然按大多數標準來看並不 “便宜”，但對於一家像台積電這樣佔據主導地位並具有增長潛力的公司來説，似乎是個不錯的價值。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/cb806a61d7d49c9a0aa4428f768aa42b.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/cb806a61d7d49c9a0aa4428f768aa42b.png"/></p>
<p>TSM PE Ratio (Forward 1y) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>台積電市盈率（未來 1 年）數據來源於 YCharts</p>
</div><p>TSMC's advanced manufacturing ability isn't something that can be easily caught up to and replicated because it takes many years of experience and billions invested into research and equipment. That gives it a competitive advantage that's likely to last for quite a while, especially because it's not easy for its customers to switch manufacturers without risking performance or reliability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>台積電的先進製造能力不是容易追趕和複製的，因為這需要多年的經驗和數十億美元的研發和設備投資。這賦予了它一種競爭優勢，這種優勢可能會持續相當長的時間，尤其是因為客户在不冒風險的情況下很難更換製造商。</p>
</div><p>That edge gives me confidence that TSMC can enter the $2 trillion club within the next few years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種優勢讓我相信，台積電在未來幾年內可以進入 2 萬億美元俱樂部。</p>
</div>

Prediction: This Artificial Intelligence (AI) Semiconductor Stock Will Join Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, and Amazon in the $2 Trillion Club by 2028. (Hint: Not Broadcom)

- TSMC 是全球領先的半導體代工廠，市場份額約 70%。  
- 其 2023 年第二季度營收達 300 億美元，同比增長 44%。  
- TSMC 的利潤率從 36.8% 提升至 42.7%，顯示出其強大的定價能力。

預測：這家人工智能（AI）半導體公司將在 2028 年躋身英偉達、微軟、蘋果、Alphabet 和亞馬遜的 2 萬億美元市值俱樂部。（提示：不是博通）