<p>以太坊目前正試圖在最近的拋售後穩定下來，價格跌破了關鍵水平。儘管在更高時間框架上看漲趨勢結構尚未完全破裂，但價格走勢和鏈上指標都顯示出混合信號，交易者應密切關注。技術分析</p>
<p>作者：Shayan 每日圖表</p>
<p>在日線圖上，以太坊已經失去了其上升通道的中線，跌破了自八月以來支撐價格的虛線趨勢線。該資產目前正在測試 4,000 美元的關鍵水平，這與通道的下邊界和位於 3,800 美元附近的 100 日移動平均線緊密對齊。</p>
<p>相對強弱指數（RSI）也已接近超賣區域，但略有反彈，目前徘徊在 40 附近，暗示如果買家以成交量介入，可能會出現局部底部。然而，如果該資產跌破 4,000 美元水平，可能會預期向 3,500 美元區間進一步下跌，這將正式使市場進入下行趨勢。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/cryptopotato:c3c4a18c8094b-8f0c68d9992823c09ddf60747810dcee-resized.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/cryptopotato:c3c4a18c8094b-8f0c68d9992823c09ddf60747810dcee-resized.jpeg"/></p>
<p>4 小時圖表</p>
<p>在 4 小時圖上，以太坊在達到 3,850 美元的紫色需求區後顯示出短期反彈的跡象。價格從該區域反彈相當明顯，目前正在 4,000 美元下方整固。這一走勢形成了潛在的短期底部，尤其是 RSI 已經退出超賣區域並開始上升。</p>
<p>也就是説，只要以太坊保持在 4,200 美元以下，結構仍然是看跌的。如果買家能夠重新奪回該水平，動能可能會轉向看漲。否則，未來幾周向 3,500 美元區域的下跌將非常可能。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/cryptopotato:c3c4a18c8094b-c230c7e57244f7f38c370a1081d0899b-resized.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/cryptopotato:c3c4a18c8094b-c230c7e57244f7f38c370a1081d0899b-resized.jpeg"/></p>
<p>鏈上分析 交易所供應比率</p>
<p>在鏈上數據方面，以太坊的交易所供應比率持續下降，目前處於多年來的最低點，接近 0.13。這表明總以太坊供應中持有在中心化交易所的部分正在減少，暗示出強勁的長期積累趨勢。從歷史上看，這一直是一個看漲信號，因為這意味着可供出售的代幣減少。</p>
<p>然而，這一積累趨勢與最近的價格走勢形成對比。儘管在交易所的以太坊數量減少，價格仍然大幅下跌，這可能是由於短期槓桿清算或更廣泛的市場情緒所致。無論如何，這一指標支持長期持有者保持信心的觀點，除非我們看到交易所流入的突然逆轉，否則宏觀看漲結構仍然保持不變。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/cryptopotato:c3c4a18c8094b-93c7e7f5d597b4fc731e4e73ccb2cfe3-resized.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/cryptopotato:c3c4a18c8094b-93c7e7f5d597b4fc731e4e73ccb2cfe3-resized.jpeg"/></p>

ETHE

<p>如果以太坊跌破 4000 美元的支撐位，可能會進一步下跌至 3500 美元。目前，ETH 在近期拋售後正在測試這一關鍵水平，價格走勢和鏈上指標發出混合信號。日線圖顯示出看跌結構，而 4 小時圖則顯示出可能的短期反彈。鏈上分析顯示，交易所供應比率正在下降，儘管近期價格下跌，但這表明長期積累的趨勢。總體而言，市場保持謹慎，交易者在關注這些關鍵水平</p>

<p>Ethereum is currently attempting to stabilize after the recent sell-off that pushed prices below key levels. While the bullish trend structure hasn’t been fully broken on higher timeframes, both price action and on-chain metrics are showing mixed signals that traders should closely monitor.Technical Analysis</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以太坊目前正試圖在最近的拋售後穩定下來，價格跌破了關鍵水平。儘管在更高時間框架上看漲趨勢結構尚未完全破裂，但價格走勢和鏈上指標都顯示出混合信號，交易者應密切關注。技術分析</p>
</div><p>By ShayanThe Daily Chart</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Shayan 每日圖表</p>
</div><p>On the daily chart, ETH has lost the midline of its ascending channel, breaking below the dotted trendline that had supported the price since August. The asset is now testing the $4,000 key level, which aligns closely with the lower boundary of the channel and the 100-day moving average located around the $3,800 level.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在日線圖上，以太坊已經失去了其上升通道的中線，跌破了自八月以來支撐價格的虛線趨勢線。該資產目前正在測試 4,000 美元的關鍵水平，這與通道的下邊界和位於 3,800 美元附近的 100 日移動平均線緊密對齊。</p>
</div><p>The RSI has also dipped near the oversold region but has rebounded slightly and is now hovering around 40, hinting at a possible local bottom if buyers step in with volume. However, if the asset breaks below the $4,000 level, a deeper drop toward the $3.5K range could be expected, which would officially put the market in a downtrend situation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相對強弱指數（RSI）也已接近超賣區域，但略有反彈，目前徘徊在 40 附近，暗示如果買家以成交量介入，可能會出現局部底部。然而，如果該資產跌破 4,000 美元水平，可能會預期向 3,500 美元區間進一步下跌，這將正式使市場進入下行趨勢。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/cryptopotato:c3c4a18c8094b-8f0c68d9992823c09ddf60747810dcee-resized.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/cryptopotato:c3c4a18c8094b-8f0c68d9992823c09ddf60747810dcee-resized.jpeg"/></p>
<p>The 4-Hour Chart</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>4 小時圖表</p>
</div><p>On the 4-hour chart, ETH shows signs of a short-term rebound after reaching the purple demand zone around $3,850. The price bounced quite sharply from this zone and is now consolidating just below $4K. This move forms a potential short-term bottom, especially since RSI has exited oversold territory and is now trending up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 4 小時圖上，以太坊在達到 3,850 美元的紫色需求區後顯示出短期反彈的跡象。價格從該區域反彈相當明顯，目前正在 4,000 美元下方整固。這一走勢形成了潛在的短期底部，尤其是 RSI 已經退出超賣區域並開始上升。</p>
</div><p>That said, the structure remains bearish as long as ETH stays below $4,200 level. If buyers can reclaim that level, momentum could shift back in favor of a bullish move. Otherwise, a drop toward the $3,500 area would be very probable in the coming weeks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也就是説，只要以太坊保持在 4,200 美元以下，結構仍然是看跌的。如果買家能夠重新奪回該水平，動能可能會轉向看漲。否則，未來幾周向 3,500 美元區域的下跌將非常可能。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/cryptopotato:c3c4a18c8094b-c230c7e57244f7f38c370a1081d0899b-resized.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/cryptopotato:c3c4a18c8094b-c230c7e57244f7f38c370a1081d0899b-resized.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Onchain Analysis Exchange Supply Ratio</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鏈上分析 交易所供應比率</p>
</div><p>On the on-chain data front, Ethereum’s Exchange Supply Ratio continues to trend downward, now sitting at its lowest point in years, near 0.13. This shows that a declining portion of the total ETH supply is held on centralized exchanges, suggesting a strong long-term accumulation trend. Historically, this has been a bullish signal, as it means fewer tokens are readily available for selling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在鏈上數據方面，以太坊的交易所供應比率持續下降，目前處於多年來的最低點，接近 0.13。這表明總以太坊供應中持有在中心化交易所的部分正在減少，暗示出強勁的長期積累趨勢。從歷史上看，這一直是一個看漲信號，因為這意味着可供出售的代幣減少。</p>
</div><p>However, this accumulation trend contrasts with the recent price action. While fewer ETH are sitting on exchanges, the price still dropped sharply, possibly due to short-term leverage wipeouts or broader market sentiment. In any case, this metric supports the idea that long-term holders remain confident, and unless we see a sudden reversal in exchange inflows, the macro bullish structure stays intact.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，這一積累趨勢與最近的價格走勢形成對比。儘管在交易所的以太坊數量減少，價格仍然大幅下跌，這可能是由於短期槓桿清算或更廣泛的市場情緒所致。無論如何，這一指標支持長期持有者保持信心的觀點，除非我們看到交易所流入的突然逆轉，否則宏觀看漲結構仍然保持不變。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/cryptopotato:c3c4a18c8094b-93c7e7f5d597b4fc731e4e73ccb2cfe3-resized.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/cryptopotato:c3c4a18c8094b-93c7e7f5d597b4fc731e4e73ccb2cfe3-resized.jpeg"/></p>

如果這一支撐位失守，以太坊可能進一步下跌至 3,500 美元：以太坊價格分析