<p><strong>英偉達</strong>（NVDA 0.27%）宣佈將投資高達 1000 億美元於 OpenAI，這被公司視為對人工智能（AI）未來的巨大押注。然而，投資者應該更仔細地看看這裏到底發生了什麼。OpenAI 所獲得的資金最終將直接投入到英偉達的硬件中，主要通過 <strong>甲骨文</strong> 的雲基礎設施建設，兩家公司最近簽署了一項高達 3000 億美元的巨大交易。</p>
<p>OpenAI 計劃部署需要 10 吉瓦電力的英偉達系統，這相當於大約 400 萬到 500 萬塊圖形處理單元（GPU）。如果這聽起來很多，那確實是，因為這大約是英偉達今年將發貨的 GPU 總數。英偉達投資的前 10 億美元將在第一吉瓦的產能上線後立即投入，其餘部分將在新的數據中心上線時分階段推出。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzQ5NzEvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMjA3ODkxNzEwOS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="411" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzQ5NzEvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMjA3ODkxNzEwOS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>循環融資</h2>
<p>從表面上看，OpenAI 的投資有助於確保未來數十億美元的需求。但值得記住的是，英偉達現在正在幫助其最大客户之一融資，以便繼續購買其芯片。這被稱為循環融資。</p>
<p>英偉達本質上是在為自己的需求提供資金。這正是 <strong>思科系統</strong>（CSCO -0.93%）在互聯網泡沫期間所做的，當時它向電信公司提供信貸，以便他們能夠購買更多的思科路由器。這些銷售看起來很不錯——直到資本枯竭，整個市場崩潰。</p>
<p>這也是英偉達的一項防禦性舉措。越來越多的英偉達最大客户正在設計自己的定製 AI 芯片。<strong>字母表</strong> 有其 TPU，<strong>亞馬遜</strong> 有 Trainium 和 Inferentia，<strong>微軟</strong> 正在開發自己的芯片。OpenAI 本身也在開發定製芯片以降低成本，在此次公告之前，它向 <strong>博通</strong> 下了價值 100 億美元的定製芯片訂單，預計明年交付。</p>
<p>這也是英偉達在加密貨幣領域看到的同樣威脅，ASIC（應用特定集成電路）取代了 GPU 用於 <strong>比特幣</strong> 挖礦。英偉達不想再看到這種情況發生。通過投資 OpenAI，它試圖將其最大客户鎖定在英偉達生態系統中。</p>
<p>此時市場也正向推理轉變，而英偉達在這一領域的護城河要小得多。訓練大型語言模型（LLM）是英偉達的 CUDA 軟件平台的強項。然而，推理並不那麼複雜，也不需要同樣深度的軟件集成。這就是為什麼超大規模數據中心的擁有者如此積極地構建定製芯片。</p>
<p>推理也是一項持續的成本，因此每次推理的成本經濟學開始主導討論。這就是為什麼英偉達還在 <strong>英特爾</strong> 上投資了 50 億美元，並宣佈在 AI 處理器上進行合作，因為它也在努力抵禦 <strong>超微</strong> 在推理市場的競爭，並保持對這一 AI 計算下一個階段的控制。</p>
<h2>這是一座紙牌屋嗎？</h2>
<p>毫無疑問，英偉達目前處於主導地位，而 OpenAI 的交易只會增強其短期前景。但其對 OpenAI 的投資顯然看起來是一項防禦性舉措，增加了風險。當思科在互聯網繁榮期間使用循環融資時，看起來很聰明，直到它資助的客户破產。</p>
<p>英偉達和 OpenAI 的定位都更好，但原則是相同的：英偉達正在利用其資產負債表來保持需求高企。這在 AI 繁榮持續時有效，但如果支出放緩或超大規模數據中心轉向更便宜的解決方案，這將使公司面臨更大的風險。</p>
<p>英偉達仍然是 AI 基礎設施的關鍵參與者，但這筆交易提醒我們，其增長並非沒有風險。英偉大的成功現在在很大程度上依賴於一家虧損的公司，該公司正在消耗大量現金，而這些現金正是由英偉達融資的。OpenAI 尚未證明其擁有一個優秀的商業模式，如果它失敗，這將成為一座倒塌在英偉達身上的紙牌屋。</p>

OpenAI

英偉達

2 倍做多英偉達 ETF - GraniteShares

南方兩倍做多英偉達

南方兩倍做空英偉達

英偉達期權收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

1 倍做空英偉達 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

半導體 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>英偉達對 OpenAI 的 1000 億美元投資被視為對人工智能未來的重要押注，但這引發了關於循環融資的擔憂，即英偉達為自身需求提供資金。這一策略與思科在互聯網泡沫期間的過去錯誤相似。隨着競爭對手開發定製的人工智能芯片，英偉達的投資顯得更具防禦性，旨在確保其在不斷變化的市場中的地位。儘管這筆交易增強了英偉達的前景，但也增加了風險，因為 OpenAI 尚未經過驗證的商業模式可能會在支出放緩或出現更便宜的替代品時危及英偉達的增長</p>

<p><strong>Nvidia</strong>'s (NVDA 0.27%) announcement that it will invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI is being hailed by the company as a massive bet on the future of artificial intelligence (AI). Still, investors should take a closer look at what is really going on here. The money OpenAI receives will ultimately be plowed right back into Nvidia hardware, mostly through <strong>Oracle</strong>'s cloud buildout, where the two companies recently signed a massive $300 billion deal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>英偉達</strong>（NVDA 0.27%）宣佈將投資高達 1000 億美元於 OpenAI，這被公司視為對人工智能（AI）未來的巨大押注。然而，投資者應該更仔細地看看這裏到底發生了什麼。OpenAI 所獲得的資金最終將直接投入到英偉達的硬件中，主要通過 <strong>甲骨文</strong> 的雲基礎設施建設，兩家公司最近簽署了一項高達 3000 億美元的巨大交易。</p>
</div><p>OpenAI plans to deploy Nvidia systems that need 10 gigawatts of power, which is equal to roughly 4 million to 5 million graphics processing units (GPUs). If that sounds like a lot, it is, as it's about the same total number of GPUs that Nvidia will ship this year. The first $10 billion of Nvidia's investment will be deployed as soon as the first gigawatt of capacity is up, and the rest will be rolled out in stages as new data centers come online.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>OpenAI 計劃部署需要 10 吉瓦電力的英偉達系統，這相當於大約 400 萬到 500 萬塊圖形處理單元（GPU）。如果這聽起來很多，那確實是，因為這大約是英偉達今年將發貨的 GPU 總數。英偉達投資的前 10 億美元將在第一吉瓦的產能上線後立即投入，其餘部分將在新的數據中心上線時分階段推出。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzQ5NzEvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMjA3ODkxNzEwOS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F834971%2Fgettyimages-2078917109.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Circular financing</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>循環融資</h2>
</div><p>On paper, the OpenAI investment helps secure billions of dollars in future demand. But it's worth remembering that Nvidia is now helping finance one of its biggest customers to keep buying its chips. This is called circular financing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從表面上看，OpenAI 的投資有助於確保未來數十億美元的需求。但值得記住的是，英偉達現在正在幫助其最大客户之一融資，以便繼續購買其芯片。這被稱為循環融資。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia is essentially funding its own demand. This is exactly what <strong>Cisco Systems</strong>(CSCO -0.93%) did during the internet bubble, when it provided credit to telecoms so they could buy more Cisco routers. Those sales looked great -- until the capital dried up and the entire market collapsed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達本質上是在為自己的需求提供資金。這正是 <strong>思科系統</strong>（CSCO -0.93%）在互聯網泡沫期間所做的，當時它向電信公司提供信貸，以便他們能夠購買更多的思科路由器。這些銷售看起來很不錯——直到資本枯竭，整個市場崩潰。</p>
</div><p>This is also a defensive move by Nvidia. More and more of Nvidia's largest customers are designing their own custom AI chips. <strong>Alphabet</strong> has its TPUs, <strong>Amazon</strong> has Trainium and Inferentia, and <strong>Microsoft</strong> is working on its own chip. OpenAI itself has been developing custom chips to bring its costs down, and before this announcement, it placed a $10 billion order with <strong>Broadcom</strong> for custom chips to be delivered next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這也是英偉達的一項防禦性舉措。越來越多的英偉達最大客户正在設計自己的定製 AI 芯片。<strong>字母表</strong> 有其 TPU，<strong>亞馬遜</strong> 有 Trainium 和 Inferentia，<strong>微軟</strong> 正在開發自己的芯片。OpenAI 本身也在開發定製芯片以降低成本，在此次公告之前，它向 <strong>博通</strong> 下了價值 100 億美元的定製芯片訂單，預計明年交付。</p>
</div><p>This is the same threat that Nvidia saw play out in crypto, where ASICs (application specific integrated circuits) displaced GPUs for <strong>Bitcoin</strong> mining. Nvidia doesn't want to see that happen again. By investing in OpenAI, it's trying to keep one of its biggest customers locked into the Nvidia ecosystem.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這也是英偉達在加密貨幣領域看到的同樣威脅，ASIC（應用特定集成電路）取代了 GPU 用於 <strong>比特幣</strong> 挖礦。英偉達不想再看到這種情況發生。通過投資 OpenAI，它試圖將其最大客户鎖定在英偉達生態系統中。</p>
</div><p>This also comes at a time when the market is shifting more toward inference, where Nvidia's moat is much smaller. Training large language models (LLMs) is where Nvidia's CUDA software platform shines. However, inference isn't as complex and doesn't require the same deep software integration. That's why hyperscalers (owners of massive data centers) are so motivated to build custom chips.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此時市場也正向推理轉變，而英偉達在這一領域的護城河要小得多。訓練大型語言模型（LLM）是英偉達的 CUDA 軟件平台的強項。然而，推理並不那麼複雜，也不需要同樣深度的軟件集成。這就是為什麼超大規模數據中心的擁有者如此積極地構建定製芯片。</p>
</div><p>Inference is also a continuous cost, so the economics of cost per inference start to dominate the discussion. That's why Nvidia also took a $5 billion stake in <strong>Intel</strong> and announced a collaboration on AI processors, as it's also trying to stave off <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> in the inference market and keep its grip on this next phase of AI computing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>推理也是一項持續的成本，因此每次推理的成本經濟學開始主導討論。這就是為什麼英偉達還在 <strong>英特爾</strong> 上投資了 50 億美元，並宣佈在 AI 處理器上進行合作，因為它也在努力抵禦 <strong>超微</strong> 在推理市場的競爭，並保持對這一 AI 計算下一個階段的控制。</p>
</div><h2>Is this a house of cards?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>這是一座紙牌屋嗎？</h2>
</div><p>There's no question that Nvidia is in a dominant position right now, and the OpenAI deal only strengthens its near-term outlook. But its OpenAI investment clearly looks like a defensive move that adds risk. When Cisco used circular financing during the internet boom, it looked brilliant, until the customers it was funding went bust.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毫無疑問，英偉達目前處於主導地位，而 OpenAI 的交易只會增強其短期前景。但其對 OpenAI 的投資顯然看起來是一項防禦性舉措，增加了風險。當思科在互聯網繁榮期間使用循環融資時，看起來很聰明，直到它資助的客户破產。</p>
</div><p>Both Nvidia and OpenAI are better positioned, but the principle is the same: Nvidia is using its balance sheet to keep demand high. That works as long as the AI boom keeps running, but it makes the company more exposed if spending slows or if hyperscalers switch to cheaper solutions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達和 OpenAI 的定位都更好，但原則是相同的：英偉達正在利用其資產負債表來保持需求高企。這在 AI 繁榮持續時有效，但如果支出放緩或超大規模數據中心轉向更便宜的解決方案，這將使公司面臨更大的風險。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia remains the key player in AI infrastructure, but this deal is a reminder that its growth isn't risk-free. A lot of Nvidia's success is now riding on an unprofitable company that is bleeding massive amounts of cash that it is financing. OpenAI hasn't actually proven yet that it has a great business model, and if it fails, this becomes a house of cards that collapses onto Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達仍然是 AI 基礎設施的關鍵參與者，但這筆交易提醒我們，其增長並非沒有風險。英偉大的成功現在在很大程度上依賴於一家虧損的公司，該公司正在消耗大量現金，而這些現金正是由英偉達融資的。OpenAI 尚未證明其擁有一個優秀的商業模式，如果它失敗，這將成為一座倒塌在英偉達身上的紙牌屋。</p>
</div>

Did Nvidia Just Repeat Cisco's Mistake and Build a House of Cards With OpenAI Investment?

- Nvidia 宣佈將投資高達 1000 億美元於 OpenAI，旨在推動人工智能發展。  
- 投資將主要用於 Nvidia 硬件，OpenAI 計劃部署需要 10 吉瓦電力的系統。  
- 此舉被視為防禦性策略，Nvidia 試圖鎖定其最大客户，降低市場風險。  

英偉達是否通過對 OpenAI 的投資重蹈思科的覆轍，建立了一座空中樓閣？