<p>今年夏天，一個令人擔憂但並不意外的頭條新聞引起了投資者的關注：越來越多的年輕美國人放棄了追求擁有房屋的夢想，他們認為全球全面戰爭發生的可能性更大。然而，貨幣政策的重大轉變可能迫使人們重新思考這一嚴峻的狀況。</p>
<p>根據 Clever Real Estate 的一項調查，21% 的 Z 世代受訪者認為，在未來五年內，第三次世界大戰爆發的可能性比他們買房的可能性更大。此外，幾乎同樣比例的受訪者認為，他們在這段時間內更有可能中彩票或變得無家可歸。</p>
<p>然而，美聯儲最近提出了一個有趣的變化。9 月 17 日，中央銀行將基準利率下調了 25 個基點，降至 4.00%-4.25%，這一舉措被許多專家視為幾乎是必然的。這是自去年 12 月以來的首次降息。更重要的是，政策制定者暗示可能會進一步放寬政策。</p>
<p>顯然，這一舉措對房地產市場具有重要意義，特別是對潛在買家和再融資者而言。基本上，温和的貨幣政策有助於減輕借貸負擔，這使得許多潛在買家處於觀望狀態。然而，針對房屋建築商和相關子行業的投機者應做好迎接波動的準備。</p>
<p>幾位經濟學家對滯脹的可能性發出了警告。儘管融資壓力可能有所緩解，但通貨膨脹依然頑固地高企，勞動力市場之前也經歷了負面調整。因此，樂觀的投資者在接觸房屋建築商和更廣泛房地產生態系統中的其他參與者時需要謹慎。</p>
<p>不過，樂觀者也可能略佔優勢。9 月第三週，初請失業金人數從前一週減少了 14,000，降至 218,000。這個數字與預期的 235,000 相比表現良好。</p>
<p>總體而言，經濟狀況可能並沒有宣傳的那麼糟糕——這可能在房地產市場的發展中發揮關鍵作用。</p>
<p><strong>Direxion ETF：</strong> 對於那些真正熱衷於房地產及其周邊生態系統潛在復甦的投資者，金融服務提供商 Direxion 提供了一種超槓桿的交易所交易基金。基本上，這種金融工具為複雜產品提供了一種易於理解的替代方案。該基金名為 <strong>Direxion Daily Homebuilders &amp; Supplies Bull 3X Shares</strong>（NYSE: NAIL），跟蹤道瓊斯美國精選住宅建築指數 300% 的表現。</p>
<p>為什麼要考慮 3 倍槓桿的基金？從根本上説，NAIL ETF 為投機者提供了便利。與其嘗試交易期權市場——這可能具有其獨特的複雜性——不如選擇 NAIL，它在每個單位中內置了極高的槓桿，可以像其他任何公開交易的證券一樣買賣。</p>
<p>另一個被視為理所當然的重要方面是，Direxion ETF 是基於借記的交易。與其他複雜交易不同，這些基金相對簡單。所有頭寸都從現金流出頭寸開始，因為買方需要提前支付借記以獲取基金的單位。如果發生市場損失，虧損僅限於交易的總本金。</p>
<p>然而，潛在參與者應意識到相關風險。首先，超槓桿基金的波動性遠高於跟蹤基準指數（如標準普爾 500）的非槓桿基金。此外，槓桿 Direxion ETF 的設計是為了提供不超過一天的敞口。持有這些工具超過推薦時間可能會使交易者面臨因每日複利效應而導致的頭寸衰減。</p>
<p><strong>NAIL ETF：</strong> 自年初以來，NAIL ETF 的市場價值已損失約 14%。然而，在過去六個月中，它也上漲了 17%，反映出潛在的上行空間。</p>
<ul>
<li>目前，NAIL ETF 處於一個不尋常的位置，夾在上方的 50 日移動平均線和下方的 200 日移動平均線之間。</li>
<li>在上半年的整體交易量水平相對較低。然而，收購在夏季開始有所增加。</li>
<li>最近，買入量有所下降，恰逢市場價值下滑。然而，整體水平通常高於上半年的水平。</li>
</ul>
<p><em>圖片由</em> <em>Oleksandr Pidvalnyi</em> <em>在</em> <em>Pixabay</em> <em>上提供</em> <em>.</em></p>

住房建設 3 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

<p>最近美聯儲將基準利率下調至 4.00%-4.25% 可能會影響住房市場，因為這降低了潛在買家的借貸成本。儘管對滯脹和高通脹的擔憂依然存在，但初請失業金人數有所減少，這表明經濟前景更加樂觀。對於對房地產復甦持樂觀態度的投資者來説，Direxion 的超槓桿 NAIL ETF 提供了一種接觸住宅建築行業的方式，儘管由於其波動性和短期交易的設計，它帶來了顯著的風險。今年 NAIL ETF 已經下跌了 14%，但在過去六個月中上漲了 17%</p>

<p>Earlier this summer, a worrying but bluntly unsurprising headline caught the attention of investors everywhere: a growing number of young Americans have given up pursuing homeownership, believing that an all-out global war will have a greater likelihood of materializing. However, a critical shift in monetary policy just might force a rethink of this dire condition.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年夏天，一個令人擔憂但並不意外的頭條新聞引起了投資者的關注：越來越多的年輕美國人放棄了追求擁有房屋的夢想，他們認為全球全面戰爭發生的可能性更大。然而，貨幣政策的重大轉變可能迫使人們重新思考這一嚴峻的狀況。</p>
</div><p>According to a survey by Clever Real Estate, 21% of respondents from the Generation Z demographic believe that World War III erupting is a more likely future event over the next five years than them buying a home. What's more, almost the same share of respondents believe they're more likely to win the lottery or become homeless in that timeframe.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 Clever Real Estate 的一項調查，21% 的 Z 世代受訪者認為，在未來五年內，第三次世界大戰爆發的可能性比他們買房的可能性更大。此外，幾乎同樣比例的受訪者認為，他們在這段時間內更有可能中彩票或變得無家可歸。</p>
</div><p>However, the Federal Reserve recently presented an interesting wrinkle. On Sept. 17, the central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, delivering what many experts thought was a near-certainty. It was the first rate cut since December of last year. More importantly, policymakers signaled that further easing may follow.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，美聯儲最近提出了一個有趣的變化。9 月 17 日，中央銀行將基準利率下調了 25 個基點，降至 4.00%-4.25%，這一舉措被許多專家視為幾乎是必然的。這是自去年 12 月以來的首次降息。更重要的是，政策制定者暗示可能會進一步放寬政策。</p>
</div><p>Obviously, the move carries significance for the housing market, particularly for prospective buyers and refinancers. Essentially, a dovish monetary policy helps ease the burden of borrowing, which has kept many would-be buyers on the sidelines. Still, speculators targeting homebuilders and related subsectors should be prepared for an eventful journey.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>顯然，這一舉措對房地產市場具有重要意義，特別是對潛在買家和再融資者而言。基本上，温和的貨幣政策有助於減輕借貸負擔，這使得許多潛在買家處於觀望狀態。然而，針對房屋建築商和相關子行業的投機者應做好迎接波動的準備。</p>
</div><p>Several economists have sounded the warning regarding the possibility of stagflation. While financing pressures may have been eased, inflation remains stubbornly elevated and the labor market has previously been adjusted negatively. As such, bullish investors do need to approach homebuilders and other players within the broader real estate ecosystem cautiously.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>幾位經濟學家對滯脹的可能性發出了警告。儘管融資壓力可能有所緩解，但通貨膨脹依然頑固地高企，勞動力市場之前也經歷了負面調整。因此，樂觀的投資者在接觸房屋建築商和更廣泛房地產生態系統中的其他參與者時需要謹慎。</p>
</div><p>Still, it's also possible that the optimists may have a slight edge. Initial jobless claims declined by 14,000 from the previous week to 218,000 in the third week of September. This figure bodes well compared to estimates anticipating 235,000.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不過，樂觀者也可能略佔優勢。9 月第三週，初請失業金人數從前一週減少了 14,000，降至 218,000。這個數字與預期的 235,000 相比表現良好。</p>
</div><p>Overall, economic circumstances might not be as bad as advertised — and that could play a key role in how the housing market pans out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>總體而言，經濟狀況可能並沒有宣傳的那麼糟糕——這可能在房地產市場的發展中發揮關鍵作用。</p>
</div><p><strong>The Direxion ETF:</strong> For those investors who are truly gung-ho about a potential recovery in real estate and its surrounding ecosystem, financial services provider Direxion offers an ultra-leveraged exchange-traded fund. Basically, this financial vehicle provides an easy-to-understand alternative to exotic products. Called the <strong>Direxion Daily Homebuilders &amp; Supplies Bull 3X Shares</strong> (NYSE: NAIL), the fund tracks 300% of the performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Select Home Construction Index.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Direxion ETF：</strong> 對於那些真正熱衷於房地產及其周邊生態系統潛在復甦的投資者，金融服務提供商 Direxion 提供了一種超槓桿的交易所交易基金。基本上，這種金融工具為複雜產品提供了一種易於理解的替代方案。該基金名為 <strong>Direxion Daily Homebuilders &amp; Supplies Bull 3X Shares</strong>（NYSE: NAIL），跟蹤道瓊斯美國精選住宅建築指數 300% 的表現。</p>
</div><p>Why bother considering a 3X-leveraged fund? At the core, the NAIL ETF provides convenience for speculators. Rather than attempting to trade the options market — which can feature its own unique complexities — NAIL provides extreme leverage baked into each unit, which can be bought and sold, much like any other publicly traded security.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>為什麼要考慮 3 倍槓桿的基金？從根本上説，NAIL ETF 為投機者提供了便利。與其嘗試交易期權市場——這可能具有其獨特的複雜性——不如選擇 NAIL，它在每個單位中內置了極高的槓桿，可以像其他任何公開交易的證券一樣買賣。</p>
</div><p>Another important aspect that's taken for granted is that Direxion ETFs are debit-based transactions. Unlike other exotic trades, these funds are relatively straightforward. All positions start from a cash outflow position because the buyer is paying a debit upfront to acquire the fund's units. Should a market loss occur, the red ink is limited to the total principle of the trade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一個被視為理所當然的重要方面是，Direxion ETF 是基於借記的交易。與其他複雜交易不同，這些基金相對簡單。所有頭寸都從現金流出頭寸開始，因為買方需要提前支付借記以獲取基金的單位。如果發生市場損失，虧損僅限於交易的總本金。</p>
</div><p>However, prospective participants should be cognizant of the risks involved. Primarily, ultra-leveraged funds are far more volatile than non-leveraged counterparts tracking benchmark indices like the S&amp;P 500. Moreover, leveraged Direxion ETFs are designed for exposure lasting no longer than one day. Holding onto these vehicles for longer than recommended can expose traders to positional decay stemming from the daily compounding effect.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，潛在參與者應意識到相關風險。首先，超槓桿基金的波動性遠高於跟蹤基準指數（如標準普爾 500）的非槓桿基金。此外，槓桿 Direxion ETF 的設計是為了提供不超過一天的敞口。持有這些工具超過推薦時間可能會使交易者面臨因每日複利效應而導致的頭寸衰減。</p>
</div><p><strong>The NAIL ETF:</strong> Since the start of the year, the NAIL ETF has lost about 14% of market value. However, in the past six months, it has also gained 17%, thus reflecting potential upside.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>NAIL ETF：</strong> 自年初以來，NAIL ETF 的市場價值已損失約 14%。然而，在過去六個月中，它也上漲了 17%，反映出潛在的上行空間。</p>
</div><ul>
<li>At the moment, the NAIL ETF is stuck in an unusual position, sandwiched between the 50-day moving average at top and the 200 DMA at bottom.</li>
<li>For the first half of the year, overall volume levels have been relatively muted. However, acquisitions started to pick up in the summer months.</li>
<li>More recently, buying volume has declined, coinciding with a slide in market value. However, overall levels are generally above those seen in the first half of the year.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>目前，NAIL ETF 處於一個不尋常的位置，夾在上方的 50 日移動平均線和下方的 200 日移動平均線之間。</li>
<li>在上半年的整體交易量水平相對較低。然而，收購在夏季開始有所增加。</li>
<li>最近，買入量有所下降，恰逢市場價值下滑。然而，整體水平通常高於上半年的水平。</li>
</ul>
</div><p><em>Featured i</em> <em>mage by</em> <em>Oleksandr Pidvalnyi</em> <em>on</em> <em>Pixabay</em> <em>.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>圖片由</em> <em>Oleksandr Pidvalnyi</em> <em>在</em> <em>Pixabay</em> <em>上提供</em> <em>.</em></p>
</div>

Monetary Policy Fluctuations Put The Spotlight On Direxion's Ultra-Bull NAIL ETF

- 年輕美國人對購房的信心下降，認為全球戰爭更可能發生。  
- 美聯儲降息可能刺激住房市場，借貸成本降低。  
- 投資者需謹慎對待超槓桿基金，風險較高。

貨幣政策的波動使 Direxion 的 Ultra-Bull NAIL ETF 成為關注的焦點