<p>在過去三年中，<strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>(PLTR 0.08%) 已成為華爾街上最具爭議的人工智能（AI）股票之一。</p>
<p>懷疑者常常指出 Palantir 的估值飆升，認為其股價已經超出了基本面的合理水平。然而，多頭反駁稱，公司在政府和企業客户中的快速採用證明了進一步上漲的合理性。</p>
<p>就在本週，<strong>美國銀行</strong> 的股票研究分析師 Mariana Perez Mora 將 Palantir 的目標股價上調至 215 美元——這意味着截至 9 月 25 日的當前交易水平有 20% 的上漲空間。</p>
<p>在這篇分析中，我將分解 Mora 的論點，並將其與另一項近期引人注目的 Palantir 預測進行比較。接下來，我將深入探討 Palantir 的估值特徵，並總結出對 Palantir 股票是否值得購買的平衡看法。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzUxMTkvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ4MTE4MTc1NS0yLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzUxMTkvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ4MTE4MTc1NS0yLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>為什麼華爾街將 Palantir 視為頂級 AI 股票？</h2>
<p>Palantir 的收入和利潤增長的陡峭曲線足以吸引投資者的注意。產生強勁的銷售是一回事，但維持日益盈利的單位經濟則使這家數據挖掘專家在軟件即服務（SaaS）行業中處於罕見的地位。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a0b8cedc72e905196e8d60c80da32772.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a0b8cedc72e905196e8d60c80da32772.png"/></p>
<p>PLTR 收入（TTM）數據來自 YCharts</p>
<p>然而，令人信服的財務數據只是故事的一部分。真正讓華爾街興奮的是增長來自_哪裏_。Palantir 的 AI 套件——Foundry、Gotham 和 Apollo——是今年多個引人注目的合同的支柱：</p>
<ul>
<li>與美國陸軍達成的價值高達 100 億美元的合同，期限為十年</li>
<li>與美國軍方的 Maven 智能系統擴展合同，價值 7.95 億美元，使總合同價值達到 13 億美元</li>
<li>與北約的合作，包括與英國的 15 億美元投資合作</li>
</ul>
<p>如此規模的交易為 Palantir 提供了令人羨慕的收入可見性和長期現金流的穩定性，這些特質通常會要求一個溢價的估值。</p>
<p>Mora 的目標股價上調之所以引人注目，是因為她的理由是：&#34;如果它有效，那就不貴。&#34; 這句話可能是對 <strong>Salesforce</strong> 首席執行官 Marc Benioff 最近批評 Palantir 軟件過於昂貴的微妙回應。</p>
<p>在某種程度上，Mora 的理由與 Jim Cramer 的觀點相呼應——他最近認為，按照 40 規則計算，Palantir 股票是便宜的。</p>
<h2>Palantir 的估值：分解增長預期</h2>
<p>對於投資者來説，關鍵的啓示是，一些分析師認為 Palantir 獨特的財務動能與加速的合同贏得相結合，足以支持一個歷史上較高的倍數。</p>
<p>從下面的圖表可以看出，Palantir 當前的市銷率（P/S）為 133——這一水平遠高於其在 SaaS 領域的同行。從表面上看，這僅僅表明 Palantir 股票相對於可比軟件企業要求一個溢價倍數。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/17fe142e400ad5ea05bff6625e646ca3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/17fe142e400ad5ea05bff6625e646ca3.png"/></p>
<p>PLTR PS 比率數據來自 YCharts</p>
<p>然而，深入挖掘，敍述並沒有太大變化。根據華爾街對未來幾年收入的共識預測，我計算了隱含的前瞻性 P/S 倍數：</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>指標</th>
<th>2026 年共識收入預測</th>
<th>2027 年共識收入預測</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>收入</td>
<td>56 億美元</td>
<td>76 億美元</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>隱含前瞻性 P/S 倍數</td>
<td>76.8</td>
<td>56.6</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>數據來源：YCharts</p>
<p>即使 Palantir 完美執行並達到其增長預測，其前瞻性估值仍然遠高於其同行今天的交易水平。</p>
<h2>Palantir 股票現在值得買嗎，還是已經被定價到完美？</h2>
<p>從這個估值角度來看，Palantir 當前約 4300 億美元的市值顯得有些緊張。對於投資者來説，這提出了一個關鍵問題：Palantir 的未來增長有多少實際上已經反映在股價中？</p>
<p>如果你問億萬富翁資金經理 Stanley Druckenmiller，答案可能是_全部_。他的基金 Duquesne Family Office 最近清算了在 Palantir 的全部頭寸——這可能是為了在股價繼續呈拋物線攀升時鎖定收益。</p>
<p>在我看來，長期回調似乎是不可避免的。沒有哪隻股票會永遠直線飆升，當 Palantir 最終經歷估值重估時，其股價可能會正常化到遠低於今天的水平——並且沒有快速反彈的保證。</p>
<p>在我看來，Palantir 股票的定價已趨於完美。雖然動量交易者可能會被誘惑繼續乘勢而上，承受劇烈的波動，但長期投資者明白，建立頭寸的合理價格點還有很多。</p>

PLTR

<p>Palantir Technologies (PLTR) 已成為一隻頗具爭議的人工智能股票，分析師們對其估值意見不一。美國銀行的 Mariana Perez Mora 將 Palantir 的目標股價上調至 215 美元，暗示有 20% 的上漲空間。該公司強勁的收入增長和重要合同，包括與美國陸軍達成的 100 億美元交易，增強了其吸引力。然而，其高達 133 的市銷率引發了對股票是否被高估的擔憂。一些投資者，如 Stanley Druckenmiller，已退出其持倉，表明市場可能面臨調整。總體而言，Palantir 的定價可能已趨於完美，長期投資者需保持謹慎</p>

<p>Over the last three years, <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>(PLTR 0.08%) has emerged as one of the most polarizing artificial intelligence (AI) stocks on Wall Street.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去三年中，<strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>(PLTR 0.08%) 已成為華爾街上最具爭議的人工智能（AI）股票之一。</p>
</div><p>Skeptics often point to Palantir's soaring valuation, arguing that its stock price has raced beyond acceptable levels of fundamentals. Bulls, however, counter that the company's accelerating adoption across government and enterprise customers justifies further upside.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>懷疑者常常指出 Palantir 的估值飆升，認為其股價已經超出了基本面的合理水平。然而，多頭反駁稱，公司在政府和企業客户中的快速採用證明了進一步上漲的合理性。</p>
</div><p>Just this week, equity research analyst Mariana Perez Mora of <strong>Bank of America</strong> raised her price target on Palantir to $215 -- implying 20% upside from current trading levels as of Sept. 25.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就在本週，<strong>美國銀行</strong> 的股票研究分析師 Mariana Perez Mora 將 Palantir 的目標股價上調至 215 美元——這意味着截至 9 月 25 日的當前交易水平有 20% 的上漲空間。</p>
</div><p>In this analysis, I'll break down Mora's argument and compare it to another recent eyebrow-raising call on Palantir. From there, I'll dig into Palantir's valuation profile and wrap up with a balanced take on whether Palantir stock is a buy right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這篇分析中，我將分解 Mora 的論點，並將其與另一項近期引人注目的 Palantir 預測進行比較。接下來，我將深入探討 Palantir 的估值特徵，並總結出對 Palantir 股票是否值得購買的平衡看法。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzUxMTkvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ4MTE4MTc1NS0yLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F835119%2Fgettyimages-1481181755-2.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Why does Wall Street see Palantir as a top AI stock?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>為什麼華爾街將 Palantir 視為頂級 AI 股票？</h2>
</div><p>The steepening slopes of both revenue and profit growth are enough to capture investor attention when it comes to Palantir. Generating robust sales is one thing, but sustaining increasingly profitable unit economics places the data mining specialist in rare territory within the software-as-a-service (SaaS) industry.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Palantir 的收入和利潤增長的陡峭曲線足以吸引投資者的注意。產生強勁的銷售是一回事，但維持日益盈利的單位經濟則使這家數據挖掘專家在軟件即服務（SaaS）行業中處於罕見的地位。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a0b8cedc72e905196e8d60c80da32772.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a0b8cedc72e905196e8d60c80da32772.png"/></p>
<p>PLTR Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>PLTR 收入（TTM）數據來自 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Compelling financials are only part of the story, though. What truly excites Wall Street is <em>where</em> growth is coming from. Palantir's AI suite -- Foundry, Gotham, and Apollo -- has been the backbone of several headline-grabbing contracts this year:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，令人信服的財務數據只是故事的一部分。真正讓華爾街興奮的是增長來自_哪裏_。Palantir 的 AI 套件——Foundry、Gotham 和 Apollo——是今年多個引人注目的合同的支柱：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>A deal with the U.S. Army worth up to $10 billion over the next decade</li>
<li>A $795 million expansion of its Maven Smart System with the U.S. Military, bringing the total deal value to $1.3 billion</li>
<li>Partnerships with NATO, including a $1.5 billion investment partnership with the United Kingdom</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>與美國陸軍達成的價值高達 100 億美元的合同，期限為十年</li>
<li>與美國軍方的 Maven 智能系統擴展合同，價值 7.95 億美元，使總合同價值達到 13 億美元</li>
<li>與北約的合作，包括與英國的 15 億美元投資合作</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Deals of this magnitude provide Palantir with enviable revenue visibility and long-term cash flow durability, qualities that often command a premium valuation to begin with.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如此規模的交易為 Palantir 提供了令人羨慕的收入可見性和長期現金流的穩定性，這些特質通常會要求一個溢價的估值。</p>
</div><p>What makes Mora's price target increase stand out is her reasoning that, &#34;if it works, it's not expensive.&#34; This remark may have been a subtle response to <strong>Salesforce</strong> CEO Marc Benioff, who recently criticized Palantir's software as being overly pricey.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Mora 的目標股價上調之所以引人注目，是因為她的理由是：&#34;如果它有效，那就不貴。&#34; 這句話可能是對 <strong>Salesforce</strong> 首席執行官 Marc Benioff 最近批評 Palantir 軟件過於昂貴的微妙回應。</p>
</div><p>In some ways, Mora's justification echoes that of Jim Cramer -- who recently argued that Palantir stock is cheap when measured on its Rule of 40 score.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在某種程度上，Mora 的理由與 Jim Cramer 的觀點相呼應——他最近認為，按照 40 規則計算，Palantir 股票是便宜的。</p>
</div><h2>Palantir's valuation: Breaking down growth expectations</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Palantir 的估值：分解增長預期</h2>
</div><p>For investors, the takeaway is that some analysts view Palantir's unique blend of financial momentum with accelerating contract wins as enough validation to support a historically elevated multiple.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於投資者來説，關鍵的啓示是，一些分析師認為 Palantir 獨特的財務動能與加速的合同贏得相結合，足以支持一個歷史上較高的倍數。</p>
</div><p>The key observation from the chart below is that Palantir currently trades at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 133 -- a level that towers above its peers in the SaaS sector. On the surface, this simply indicates that Palantir stock commands a premium multiple relative to comparable software businesses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從下面的圖表可以看出，Palantir 當前的市銷率（P/S）為 133——這一水平遠高於其在 SaaS 領域的同行。從表面上看，這僅僅表明 Palantir 股票相對於可比軟件企業要求一個溢價倍數。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/17fe142e400ad5ea05bff6625e646ca3.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/17fe142e400ad5ea05bff6625e646ca3.png"/></p>
<p>PLTR PS Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>PLTR PS 比率數據來自 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Digging deeper, however, the narrative doesn't change much. Based on Wall Street's consensus revenue estimates over the next couple of years, I've calculated implied forward P/S multiples:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，深入挖掘，敍述並沒有太大變化。根據華爾街對未來幾年收入的共識預測，我計算了隱含的前瞻性 P/S 倍數：</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Metric</th>
<th>2026 Consensus Revenue Estimate</th>
<th>2027 Consensus Revenue Estimate</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Revenue</td>
<td>$5.6 billion</td>
<td>$7.6 billion</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Implied forward P/S multiple</td>
<td>76.8</td>
<td>56.6</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>指標</th>
<th>2026 年共識收入預測</th>
<th>2027 年共識收入預測</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>收入</td>
<td>56 億美元</td>
<td>76 億美元</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>隱含前瞻性 P/S 倍數</td>
<td>76.8</td>
<td>56.6</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Data Source: YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源：YCharts</p>
</div><p>Even if Palantir executes perfectly and meets its growth forecasts, its forward valuation still sits well above where its peers trade today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使 Palantir 完美執行並達到其增長預測，其前瞻性估值仍然遠高於其同行今天的交易水平。</p>
</div><h2>Is Palantir stock a buy now, or is it priced to perfection?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Palantir 股票現在值得買嗎，還是已經被定價到完美？</h2>
</div><p>Viewed through this valuation lens, Palantir's current market capitalization of roughly $430 billion looks stretched. For investors, this raises a critical question: How much of Palantir's future growth is realistically priced into the stock?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從這個估值角度來看，Palantir 當前約 4300 億美元的市值顯得有些緊張。對於投資者來説，這提出了一個關鍵問題：Palantir 的未來增長有多少實際上已經反映在股價中？</p>
</div><p>If you ask billionaire money manager Stanley Druckenmiller, the answer might be <em>all of it</em>. His fund, Duquesne Family Office, recently liquidated its entire position in Palantir -- likely a move to lock in gains as the stock continued its parabolic climb.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你問億萬富翁資金經理 Stanley Druckenmiller，答案可能是_全部_。他的基金 Duquesne Family Office 最近清算了在 Palantir 的全部頭寸——這可能是為了在股價繼續呈拋物線攀升時鎖定收益。</p>
</div><p>From my perspective, a prolonged pullback feels inevitable. No stock rallies in a straight line forever, and when Palantir eventually undergoes a valuation rerate, its share price could normalize well below today's levels -- with no guarantee of a quick rebound.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我看來，長期回調似乎是不可避免的。沒有哪隻股票會永遠直線飆升，當 Palantir 最終經歷估值重估時，其股價可能會正常化到遠低於今天的水平——並且沒有快速反彈的保證。</p>
</div><p>In my eyes, Palantir stock is priced to perfection. While momentum traders might be tempted to continue riding the wave higher and stomaching sharp volatility, long-term investors understand that there are more reasonable price points to build a position.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我看來，Palantir 股票的定價已趨於完美。雖然動量交易者可能會被誘惑繼續乘勢而上，承受劇烈的波動，但長期投資者明白，建立頭寸的合理價格點還有很多。</p>
</div>

1 Monster Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock to Buy Hand Over Fist Before It Soars 20%, According to a Wall Street Analyst

- Palantir Technologies 被視為華爾街最具爭議的人工智能股票之一。  
- 分析師提高目標價至 215 美元，暗示 20% 的上漲空間。  
- 未來增長是否已被股價充分反映，成為投資者關注的關鍵問題。

根據一位華爾街分析師的觀點，有一隻人工智能（AI）巨頭股票值得在其上漲 20% 之前大量買入