<p><strong>開市客</strong>(COST -0.78%) 多年來一直是投資者的增長機器。其尋寶購物體驗以及為願意並能夠批量購買的消費者提供的價值，使其倉儲商店極受歡迎。即使在多年成功之後，這家折扣零售商仍然有很大的潛力擴展到更多市場，因為其倉庫在北美高度集中。</p>
<p>最近，該公司又發佈了一份穩健的季度報告。但儘管如此，股票今年的表現卻平平無奇。它是否已經到了大幅反彈的時候？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzUyNTMvcGVyc29uLXNob3BwaW5nLXdpdGgtdGhlaXItY2hpbGQtaW4tYS13YXJlaG91c2UuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzUyNTMvcGVyc29uLXNob3BwaW5nLXdpdGgtdGhlaXItY2hpbGQtaW4tYS13YXJlaG91c2UuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>開市客的財務狀況依然強勁</h2>
<p>開市客在週四收盤後發佈了其 2025 財年第四季度的財報。在截至 8 月 31 日的期間，收入總計為 862 億美元，略高於分析師預期的 861 億美元。在底線方面，其每股收益為 5.87 美元，超出了華爾街預期的 5.80 美元。</p>
<p>投資者關注零售商的一個關鍵指標是可比銷售增長，這顯示了現有商店與去年同期相比產生的增長。它實際上是一個有機增長率，因為它排除了新開店鋪的影響，並且不考慮最近關閉的店鋪。開市客在 2025 財年第四季度的可比增長率為 5.7%。特別令人鼓舞的是，它在本土市場之外經歷了最強勁的有機增長：美國的增長率為 5.1%，而國際增長率為 8.6%。</p>
<p>儘管公司沒有提供新財年的指導，但它表示正在努力在其自有品牌 Kirkland Signature 下提供更多產品，以便為客户提供 “受關税影響商品” 的替代品。這表明它正在盡力適應當前的宏觀經濟條件。</p>
<h2>為什麼開市客的業績不足以推動股價上漲？</h2>
<p>儘管盈利超預期且財務結果良好，開市客的股票在週五仍下跌了幾個百分點。截至週末，該股今年的表現持平。這與 <strong>標準普爾 500</strong> 指數形成鮮明對比，後者在 2025 年迄今上漲了 13%。去年情況則截然不同，開市客的股票上漲了 39%，表現優於廣泛指數的 23% 漲幅。</p>
<p>開市客今年股票表現不佳，很可能與其已經膨脹的估值有關。在 2024 年經歷了非凡的一年後，當前的市盈率（P/E）超過 50。相比之下，標準普爾 500 指數的平均股票市盈率為 25。考慮到其温和的增長率，開市客的股票極其昂貴。雖然業務表現良好，但其預期的未來增長在很大程度上已經反映在股價中，因此除非公司完全主導並超出預期，否則發佈強勁業績可能不會給股價帶來太大提振。</p>
<h2>股票的高估值使得今天投資開市客變得困難</h2>
<p>投資者對高估值的擔憂日益加劇，尤其是在關税影響越來越多消費品價格的情況下。華爾街的擔憂是，隨着消費者開始感受到更高價格的影響，增長率可能會放緩。考慮到開市客的股票交易在極高的估值下，幾乎沒有安全邊際。這使得預期極高，如果經濟條件惡化，股價有很大的下跌空間。</p>
<p>雖然它仍然可能是一個不錯的長期投資，但在當前的估值下，我會放棄開市客的股票。還有許多其他合理定價的成長股可供選擇。</p>

開市客

<p>開市客報告了強勁的 2023 財年第四季度財報，收入為 862 億美元，每股收益為 5.87 美元，超出分析師預期。可比銷售增長為 5.7%，國際市場增長為 8.6%。儘管取得了這些成績，開市客的股票卻下跌，全年保持平穩，這歸因於其超過 50 的高市盈率，而標準普爾 500 指數的市盈率為 25。對高估值和由於關税可能導致的增長放緩的擔憂使投資者情緒謹慎，這表明現在可能不是投資開市客的最佳時機</p>

<p><strong>Costco Wholesale</strong>(COST -0.78%) has been a growth machine for investors over the years. Its bargain-hunting experience and the value it offers to consumers who are willing and able to buy in bulk have made its warehouse stores extremely popular. And even after many years of success, the discount retailer still has plenty of potential to expand into more markets, as its warehouses are highly concentrated in North America.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>開市客</strong>(COST -0.78%) 多年來一直是投資者的增長機器。其尋寶購物體驗以及為願意並能夠批量購買的消費者提供的價值，使其倉儲商店極受歡迎。即使在多年成功之後，這家折扣零售商仍然有很大的潛力擴展到更多市場，因為其倉庫在北美高度集中。</p>
</div><p>Recently, the company delivered yet another solid quarterly report. But despite this, the stock's performance for the year has been lackluster. Could it be overdue for a big rally?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近，該公司又發佈了一份穩健的季度報告。但儘管如此，股票今年的表現卻平平無奇。它是否已經到了大幅反彈的時候？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzUyNTMvcGVyc29uLXNob3BwaW5nLXdpdGgtdGhlaXItY2hpbGQtaW4tYS13YXJlaG91c2UuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F835253%2Fperson-shopping-with-their-child-in-a-warehouse.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Costco's financials remain resilient</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>開市客的財務狀況依然強勁</h2>
</div><p>Costco posted its fiscal 2025 fourth-quarter earnings numbers after the closing bell on Thursday. For the period, which ended Aug. 31, revenue totaled $86.2 billion -- just ahead of the $86.1 billion that analysts were expecting. On the bottom line, its earnings per share of $5.87 topped Wall Street estimates of $5.80.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>開市客在週四收盤後發佈了其 2025 財年第四季度的財報。在截至 8 月 31 日的期間，收入總計為 862 億美元，略高於分析師預期的 861 億美元。在底線方面，其每股收益為 5.87 美元，超出了華爾街預期的 5.80 美元。</p>
</div><p>One key metric that investors also focus on for retailers is comparable sales growth, which shows how much growth existing stores generated when compared to the same period a year ago. It effectively is an organic growth rate as it excludes the impact of newly opened stores and doesn't factor in recently closed stores. Costco's comparable growth rate in fiscal Q4 was 5.7%. And what's particularly encouraging is that it has been experiencing its strongest organic growth outside its home market: The growth rate in the U.S. was 5.1%, while international growth came in at 8.6%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者關注零售商的一個關鍵指標是可比銷售增長，這顯示了現有商店與去年同期相比產生的增長。它實際上是一個有機增長率，因為它排除了新開店鋪的影響，並且不考慮最近關閉的店鋪。開市客在 2025 財年第四季度的可比增長率為 5.7%。特別令人鼓舞的是，它在本土市場之外經歷了最強勁的有機增長：美國的增長率為 5.1%，而國際增長率為 8.6%。</p>
</div><p>Although the company did not provide guidance for the new fiscal year, it did say that it was working on offering more products under its private-label Kirkland Signature brand in an effort to give customers alternatives to &#34;tariff-impacted goods.&#34; This suggests it's adapting to the current macroeconomic conditions as best as it can.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管公司沒有提供新財年的指導，但它表示正在努力在其自有品牌 Kirkland Signature 下提供更多產品，以便為客户提供 “受關税影響商品” 的替代品。這表明它正在盡力適應當前的宏觀經濟條件。</p>
</div><h2>Why were Costco's results not enough to give the stock a boost?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>為什麼開市客的業績不足以推動股價上漲？</h2>
</div><p>Despite the earnings beat and favorable financial results, shares of Costco fell by a few percentage points on Friday. As of the end of the week, the stock was flat for the year. That's a stark contrast to the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> index, which is up 13% so far in 2025. It was a different story last year, when Costco's stock soared by 39%, outperforming the broad index's 23% gain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管盈利超預期且財務結果良好，開市客的股票在週五仍下跌了幾個百分點。截至週末，該股今年的表現持平。這與 <strong>標準普爾 500</strong> 指數形成鮮明對比，後者在 2025 年迄今上漲了 13%。去年情況則截然不同，開市客的股票上漲了 39%，表現優於廣泛指數的 23% 漲幅。</p>
</div><p>Costco's underwhelming stock performance this year likely has more to do with its already inflated valuation. After an extraordinary year in 2024, it's now trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of over 50. By comparison, the average S&amp;P 500 stock trades at a P/E of 25. Costco's stock is extremely expensive in light of its modest growth rate. While the business is doing well, a lot of its expected future growth is effectively priced into the stock, so unless the company completely dominates and outperforms expectations, it may not get much of a boost from posting strong results.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>開市客今年股票表現不佳，很可能與其已經膨脹的估值有關。在 2024 年經歷了非凡的一年後，當前的市盈率（P/E）超過 50。相比之下，標準普爾 500 指數的平均股票市盈率為 25。考慮到其温和的增長率，開市客的股票極其昂貴。雖然業務表現良好，但其預期的未來增長在很大程度上已經反映在股價中，因此除非公司完全主導並超出預期，否則發佈強勁業績可能不會給股價帶來太大提振。</p>
</div><h2>The stock's high valuation makes it hard to justify investing in Costco today</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>股票的高估值使得今天投資開市客變得困難</h2>
</div><p>Investors are growing more concerned about high valuations, especially with tariffs impacting the prices of more and more consumer goods. The fear on Wall Street is that as consumers start to feel the effects of higher prices, growth rates may slow down. Considering that Costco stock trades at an extremely high valuation, it has no margin of safety. That leaves expectations incredibly high, and there's plenty of room for the share price to fall should economic conditions worsen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者對高估值的擔憂日益加劇，尤其是在關税影響越來越多消費品價格的情況下。華爾街的擔憂是，隨着消費者開始感受到更高價格的影響，增長率可能會放緩。考慮到開市客的股票交易在極高的估值下，幾乎沒有安全邊際。這使得預期極高，如果經濟條件惡化，股價有很大的下跌空間。</p>
</div><p>While it could still be a good long-term buy, at its current valuation, I'd pass on Costco's stock. There are many more reasonably priced growth stocks to choose from.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然它仍然可能是一個不錯的長期投資，但在當前的估值下，我會放棄開市客的股票。還有許多其他合理定價的成長股可供選擇。</p>
</div>

在發佈又一份穩健的盈利報告後，開市客的股票是否會迎來一波上漲？