<p>當一位新總統上任時，通常會發生一些變化，這些變化可能通過簽署法案成為法律或通過行政命令實現。自唐納德·特朗普總統在八個多月前就職以來，我們見證了一系列對社會保障的調整，以及他標誌性的税收和支出法案——“宏偉美麗法案” 的通過。</p>
<p>雖然特朗普的宏偉美麗法案為特定羣體引入了一些税收減免，包括從 2025 年到 2028 年為符合條件的老年人提供更高的標準税收扣除，以及在同一四年時間內為符合條件的工人提供小費和加班費的部分扣除，但它也取消了一些重要的福利。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzUzNzEvcHJlc2lkZW50LWRvbmFsZC10cnVtcC13aGl0ZS1ob3VzZS1waG90by1zdGF0ZS11bmlvbi1jb25ncmVzcy5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzUzNzEvcHJlc2lkZW50LWRvbmFsZC10cnVtcC13aGl0ZS1ob3VzZS1waG90by1zdGF0ZS11bmlvbi1jb25ncmVzcy5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>特朗普總統發表國情諮文演講。圖片來源：官方白宮照片。</p>
<p>具體來説，唐納德·特朗普的法律改變了電動汽車（EV）行業及其主要純電動製造商的命運，包括 <strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA 0.61%)、<strong>Rivian Automotive</strong>(RIVN -2.15%) 和 <strong>Lucid Group</strong>(LCID 0.56%)，截至今天，9 月 30 日。</p>
<h2>電動汽車製造商告別一個重要的誘餌</h2>
<p>在總統的宏偉美麗法案中，税收和信貸調整的清單中有一個新縮短的時間表，結束了消費者在購買符合條件的新電動汽車或插電式混合動力車時獲得的 7500 美元税收抵免，以及購買二手電動汽車時獲得的 4000 美元抵免。這個電動汽車抵免適用於建議零售價（MSRP）低於 80,000 美元的新麪包車、SUV 和卡車，以及 MSRP 不超過 55,000 美元的新轎車。</p>
<p>儘管這個抵免（正式稱為清潔車輛抵免）最初計劃在 2032 年結束，但根據《通貨膨脹削減法》，唐納德·特朗普的宏偉美麗法案今天（9 月 30 日）結束了這個新的電動汽車購買抵免。今天之後購買的符合條件的新車輛將不再有資格獲得 7500 美元的抵免。</p>
<p>這個電動汽車抵免適用於特斯拉銷售的相當大比例的車輛，包括其 Model 3 轎車、全輪驅動的 Model X SUV、單電機和雙電機的 Cybertruck，以及多種型號的 Model Y SUV。雖然 Rivian 和 Lucid 的電動汽車通常定價高於税收抵免結束的 MSRP 範圍，但這兩家公司一直在通過即將推出的車型租賃來利用 7500 美元的電動汽車抵免。</p>
<p>這個電動汽車抵免就像一個懸而未決的誘餌，使純電動汽車製造商在與內燃機（ICE）車輛的價格競爭中更具競爭力。由於全國範圍內的電動汽車充電基礎設施仍然相對不足，降低傳統內燃機車輛的價格被視為一種近乎必要的策略。</p>
<p>沒有了這種前期成本優勢，未來的買家可能會選擇傳統的汽油和柴油動力車輛，因為內燃機的加油基礎設施更為普遍，機會成本也更低。與內燃機車輛加油只需幾分鐘相比，充電電動汽車可能需要一個小時到一天的時間，具體取決於使用的充電器類型。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzUzNzEvdHNsYS1tb2RlbC0zLWRyaXZpbmctZG93bi13aW50ZXJ5LXJvYWQuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzUzNzEvdHNsYS1tb2RlbC0zLWRyaXZpbmctZG93bi13aW50ZXJ5LXJvYWQuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：特斯拉。</p>
<h2>但等等——還有更多壞消息</h2>
<p>然而，結束這一激勵購買電動汽車的豐厚税收抵免並不是唐納德·特朗普的宏偉美麗法案對純電動汽車製造商造成干擾的唯一方式。</p>
<p>當總統在 2025 年 7 月 4 日簽署他的標誌性税收和支出法案成為法律時，結束了企業平均燃油經濟性（CAFE）罰款，並追溯性地取消了 2022 年及所有後續年份的罰款。</p>
<p>CAFE 法規代表了車輛在每加侖燃料上必須行駛的標準。這些數據由國家公路交通安全管理局設定，旨在促進更高燃油效率的車輛，並減少對化石燃料的依賴。未能滿足這些標準的汽車製造商將面臨罰款。由於特朗普的法律取消了 CAFE 的民事處罰，汽車製造商不再有經濟動力去滿足高得離譜的每加侖英里數目標。</p>
<p>這幾乎肯定會對特斯拉、Rivian Automotive 和 Lucid Group 的盈利能力產生不利影響。</p>
<p>政府機構向這些純電動汽車製造商提供汽車監管信用，這些製造商將這些税收抵免出售給未達到合規目標的傳統汽車製造商。對於特斯拉而言，出售這些税收抵免在其盈利能力中發揮了關鍵作用。如果沒有監管信用，埃隆·馬斯克的公司在 2025 年第一季度將報告税前虧損。</p>
<p>隨着宏偉美麗法案取消了 CAFE 法規的約束，美國汽車監管信用的市場將受到嚴重打擊。這可能暴露出華爾街的電動汽車寵兒特斯拉一直在持續地從不可持續和/或非創新的來源中產生超過一半的税前收入，例如出售汽車監管信用和從現金中獲得的利息收入。</p>
<p>這也將減少 Rivian 和 Lucid 的監管税收抵免收入。儘管特斯拉在過去五年中至少持續盈利（得益於汽車監管信用），但 Rivian 和 Lucid 在擴大運營並試圖在汽車市場中開闢自己獨特的利基時，仍然在不斷虧損。儘管這兩家公司擁有可觀的現金儲備和知名的金融支持，但長期成功遠非保證。</p>
<p>雖然我不會説唐納德·特朗普對電動車行業造成了致命打擊，但他的行為幾乎肯定會使競爭者減少，並使純電動車製造商與傳統內燃機汽車競爭變得更加困難。</p>

LCID

特斯拉

RIVN

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - Tradr

XI二南特斯-U

南方兩倍做多特斯拉

南方兩倍做空特斯拉

2 倍做多 TSLA ETF - GraniteShares

<p>特朗普總統最近的税收和支出法案對電動車（EV）行業產生了重大影響，特別是對特斯拉、Rivian 和 Lucid。該法案取消了對新電動車購買的 7500 美元税收抵免，這對使電動車在與傳統車輛競爭時至關重要。此外，它還取消了未達到企業平均燃油經濟性（CAFE）標準的罰款，從而減少了汽車製造商生產燃油高效車輛的財務激勵。這一變化可能會對這些電動車製造商的盈利能力產生不利影響，尤其是特斯拉，因為特斯拉依賴於銷售監管信用來獲得收入</p>

<p>When a new president enters office, it's not uncommon for changes to take place, either through the signing of bills into law or via executive orders. Since President Donald Trump was inaugurated a little over eight months ago, we've witnessed a slew of adjustments made to Social Security, as well as the passage of his flagship tax and spending law, the &#34;Big, Beautiful Bill.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當一位新總統上任時，通常會發生一些變化，這些變化可能通過簽署法案成為法律或通過行政命令實現。自唐納德·特朗普總統在八個多月前就職以來，我們見證了一系列對社會保障的調整，以及他標誌性的税收和支出法案——“宏偉美麗法案” 的通過。</p>
</div><p>While Trump's big, beautiful bill introduced a number of tax breaks for select groups, including a higher standard tax deduction for eligible seniors from 2025 through 2028, and partial deductions for tips and overtime pay for eligible workers during the same four-year timeline, it also removed some important benefits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然特朗普的宏偉美麗法案為特定羣體引入了一些税收減免，包括從 2025 年到 2028 年為符合條件的老年人提供更高的標準税收扣除，以及在同一四年時間內為符合條件的工人提供小費和加班費的部分扣除，但它也取消了一些重要的福利。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzUzNzEvcHJlc2lkZW50LWRvbmFsZC10cnVtcC13aGl0ZS1ob3VzZS1waG90by1zdGF0ZS11bmlvbi1jb25ncmVzcy5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F835371%2Fpresident-donald-trump-white-house-photo-state-union-congress.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>President Trump delivering his State of the Union address. Image source: Official White House Photo.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普總統發表國情諮文演講。圖片來源：官方白宮照片。</p>
</div><p>Specifically, Donald Trump's law changes the fortunes of the electric-vehicle (EV) industry and its leading pure-play manufacturers, which includes <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA 0.61%), <strong>Rivian Automotive</strong>(RIVN -2.15%), and <strong>Lucid Group</strong>(LCID 0.56%), as of today, Sept. 30.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>具體來説，唐納德·特朗普的法律改變了電動汽車（EV）行業及其主要純電動製造商的命運，包括 <strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA 0.61%)、<strong>Rivian Automotive</strong>(RIVN -2.15%) 和 <strong>Lucid Group</strong>(LCID 0.56%)，截至今天，9 月 30 日。</p>
</div><h2>EV makers bid adieu to an important dangling carrot</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>電動汽車製造商告別一個重要的誘餌</h2>
</div><p>Among the laundry list of tax and credit adjustments in the president's big, beautiful bill is a newly shortened timeline that ends the $7,500 tax credit consumers received when purchasing a qualifying new EV or plug-in hybrid, as well as the $4,000 credit when buying a used EV. This EV credit was available to new vans, SUVs, and trucks priced below a manufacturer's suggested retail price (MSRP) of $80,000, as well as new sedans with an MSRP of no more than $55,000.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在總統的宏偉美麗法案中，税收和信貸調整的清單中有一個新縮短的時間表，結束了消費者在購買符合條件的新電動汽車或插電式混合動力車時獲得的 7500 美元税收抵免，以及購買二手電動汽車時獲得的 4000 美元抵免。這個電動汽車抵免適用於建議零售價（MSRP）低於 80,000 美元的新麪包車、SUV 和卡車，以及 MSRP 不超過 55,000 美元的新轎車。</p>
</div><p>Though this credit (officially known as the Clean Vehicle Credit) was initially slated to end in 2032, based on the Inflation Reduction Act, Donald Trump's big, beautiful bill brings this new EV purchase credit to an end today, Sept. 30. Qualifying new vehicles purchased after today will no longer be eligible for the $7,500 credit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管這個抵免（正式稱為清潔車輛抵免）最初計劃在 2032 年結束，但根據《通貨膨脹削減法》，唐納德·特朗普的宏偉美麗法案今天（9 月 30 日）結束了這個新的電動汽車購買抵免。今天之後購買的符合條件的新車輛將不再有資格獲得 7500 美元的抵免。</p>
</div><p>This EV credit applied to a significant percentage of the vehicles Tesla sells, including its Model 3 Sedan, all-wheel drive Model X SUV, single and dual motor Cybertruck, and multiple variants of the Model Y SUV. While Rivian's and Lucid's EVs are generally priced above the MSRP range where tax credits end, both companies had been angling leases of upcoming models as a way to take advantage of the $7,500 EV credit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這個電動汽車抵免適用於特斯拉銷售的相當大比例的車輛，包括其 Model 3 轎車、全輪驅動的 Model X SUV、單電機和雙電機的 Cybertruck，以及多種型號的 Model Y SUV。雖然 Rivian 和 Lucid 的電動汽車通常定價高於税收抵免結束的 MSRP 範圍，但這兩家公司一直在通過即將推出的車型租賃來利用 7500 美元的電動汽車抵免。</p>
</div><p>This EV credit was akin to a dangling carrot that allowed pure-play electric-vehicle manufacturers to be more price-competitive with internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. Undercutting traditional ICE vehicles on price is viewed as a borderline necessity with EV charging infrastructure still somewhat lacking on a nationwide basis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這個電動汽車抵免就像一個懸而未決的誘餌，使純電動汽車製造商在與內燃機（ICE）車輛的價格競爭中更具競爭力。由於全國範圍內的電動汽車充電基礎設施仍然相對不足，降低傳統內燃機車輛的價格被視為一種近乎必要的策略。</p>
</div><p>Without this upfront cost advantage, it's likely that future buyers will opt for traditional gas- and diesel-powered vehicles due to the availability of ICE fueling infrastructure and opportunity cost. Whereas it takes just a few minutes to refuel an ICE vehicle, it can take an hour to a full day, depending on the type of charger used, to juice up an EV.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沒有了這種前期成本優勢，未來的買家可能會選擇傳統的汽油和柴油動力車輛，因為內燃機的加油基礎設施更為普遍，機會成本也更低。與內燃機車輛加油只需幾分鐘相比，充電電動汽車可能需要一個小時到一天的時間，具體取決於使用的充電器類型。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzUzNzEvdHNsYS1tb2RlbC0zLWRyaXZpbmctZG93bi13aW50ZXJ5LXJvYWQuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F835371%2Ftsla-model-3-driving-down-wintery-road.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Tesla.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：特斯拉。</p>
</div><h2>But wait -- there's more bad news</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>但等等——還有更多壞消息</h2>
</div><p>However, ending this lucrative tax credit that incentivized the purchase of EVs isn't the only way Donald Trump's big, beautiful bill is disrupting pure-play EV manufacturers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，結束這一激勵購買電動汽車的豐厚税收抵免並不是唐納德·特朗普的宏偉美麗法案對純電動汽車製造商造成干擾的唯一方式。</p>
</div><p>When the president signed his flagship tax and spending bill into law on July 4, 2025, it put an end to corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) fines, as well as retroactively eliminated fines for 2022 model years and all subsequent years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當總統在 2025 年 7 月 4 日簽署他的標誌性税收和支出法案成為法律時，結束了企業平均燃油經濟性（CAFE）罰款，並追溯性地取消了 2022 年及所有後續年份的罰款。</p>
</div><p>CAFE regulations represent the standard of how far vehicles must travel on a gallon of fuel. These figures, which are set by the National Highway Traffic and Safety Administration, are designed to promote more fuel-efficient vehicles over time and lessen the reliance on fossil fuels. Automakers that failed to meet these standards were subject to fines. With CAFE civil penalties removed, courtesy of Trump's law, there's no longer any financial incentive for automakers to meet sky-high mile-per-gallon targets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CAFE 法規代表了車輛在每加侖燃料上必須行駛的標準。這些數據由國家公路交通安全管理局設定，旨在促進更高燃油效率的車輛，並減少對化石燃料的依賴。未能滿足這些標準的汽車製造商將面臨罰款。由於特朗普的法律取消了 CAFE 的民事處罰，汽車製造商不再有經濟動力去滿足高得離譜的每加侖英里數目標。</p>
</div><p>This is almost certain to have an adverse impact on the ability of Tesla, Rivian Automotive, and Lucid Group to generate profits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這幾乎肯定會對特斯拉、Rivian Automotive 和 Lucid Group 的盈利能力產生不利影響。</p>
</div><p>Government agencies provide automotive regulatory credits to these pure-play EV manufacturers, which sell these tax credits to legacy automakers that are short of compliance targets. For Tesla especially, selling these tax credits plays a key role in its profitability. Without regulatory credits, Elon Musk's company would have reported a pre-tax loss during the first quarter of 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>政府機構向這些純電動汽車製造商提供汽車監管信用，這些製造商將這些税收抵免出售給未達到合規目標的傳統汽車製造商。對於特斯拉而言，出售這些税收抵免在其盈利能力中發揮了關鍵作用。如果沒有監管信用，埃隆·馬斯克的公司在 2025 年第一季度將報告税前虧損。</p>
</div><p>With the teeth behind CAFE regulations removed by the big, beautiful bill, the market for automotive regulatory credits in the U.S. is going to be severely depressed. It has the potential to expose the fact that Wall Street's EV darling, Tesla, has been consistently generating more than half of its pre-tax income from unsustainable and/or non-innovative sources, such as selling automotive regulatory credits and earning interest income on its cash.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着宏偉美麗法案取消了 CAFE 法規的約束，美國汽車監管信用的市場將受到嚴重打擊。這可能暴露出華爾街的電動汽車寵兒特斯拉一直在持續地從不可持續和/或非創新的來源中產生超過一半的税前收入，例如出售汽車監管信用和從現金中獲得的利息收入。</p>
</div><p>It'll also minimize regulatory tax credit revenue for Rivian and Lucid. Whereas Tesla has at least been profitable on a recurring basis for five consecutive years (with the help of automotive regulatory credits), Rivian and Lucid continue to lose money hand over fist as they ramp up operations and attempt to carve out their own unique niches in the automotive marketplace. Despite substantial cash piles for both companies and brand-name financial backing, long-term success is far from a guarantee.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這也將減少 Rivian 和 Lucid 的監管税收抵免收入。儘管特斯拉在過去五年中至少持續盈利（得益於汽車監管信用），但 Rivian 和 Lucid 在擴大運營並試圖在汽車市場中開闢自己獨特的利基時，仍然在不斷虧損。儘管這兩家公司擁有可觀的現金儲備和知名的金融支持，但長期成功遠非保證。</p>
</div><p>Though I wouldn't go so far as to say Donald Trump drove a dagger through the heart of the EV industry, his actions are almost certain to thin the herd and make it considerably more difficult for pure-play electric-vehicle makers to compete with traditional ICE vehicles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然我不會説唐納德·特朗普對電動車行業造成了致命打擊，但他的行為幾乎肯定會使競爭者減少，並使純電動車製造商與傳統內燃機汽車競爭變得更加困難。</p>
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Tesla, Rivian, and Lucid Will Have Their Fortunes Changed Forever Today, Sept. 30, Courtesy of President Donald Trump

- 特朗普簽署的税法削減了電動車購車税收優惠。  
- 取消 CAFE 罰款將影響電動車製造商的盈利能力。  
- 未來電動車競爭力可能下降，傳統燃油車更具吸引力。  

特斯拉、Rivian 和 Lucid 的命運將在今天 9 月 30 日因特朗普總統而被永久改變