<p>良好的指引對於 <strong>聯合包裹</strong>（UPS 0.87%）的 135,000 輛車隊每天將數百萬包裹送到正確地點至關重要。但這家包裹遞送巨頭的股價卻走向了錯誤的方向。UPS 的股價在過去五年中暴跌了大約 50%，並且自 2022 年初的高點以來下跌超過 60%。</p>
<p>有時如此陡峭的下跌表明投資者應該尋找其他機會。然而，顯著的回調也可能帶來很好的買入機會。你應該在 UPS 股價低於 90 美元時買入嗎？</p>
<h2>深入瞭解 UPS</h2>
<p>至少從表面上看，購買 UPS 的價格似乎是合適的。這隻被打壓的股票的前瞻市盈率僅為 11.2。這個低倍數可能被許多投資者視為一個便宜的機會。</p>
<p>然而，其他人可能會擔心 UPS 可能是一個價值陷阱。該公司在 2025 年第二季度的收入同比下降了 2.7%。調整後的稀釋每股收益下降了 13.4%。UPS 仍面臨一些嚴重的挑戰。由於宏觀經濟的不確定性，該公司在第二季度的更新中沒有給出收入或營業利潤的指導。</p>
<p>這種不確定性主要集中在特朗普政府的關税政策上。UPS 首席財務官 Brian Dykes 在公司的第二季度財報電話會議上透露，美國的貿易政策導致 5 月和 6 月中美之間的貨運量下降了大約 35%。這尤其成問題，因為這是 UPS 最盈利的運輸路線。</p>
<p>美國的小包裹市場也面臨壓力。UPS 首席執行官 Carol Tomé在第二季度的更新中指出，消費者信心 “接近歷史低點”。她還提到美國製造業活動疲軟是一個阻力。</p>
<h2>比表面看起來更好的故事？</h2>
<p>儘管 UPS 面臨許多不確定性，但這隻股票可能提供一個比表面看起來更好的故事。首先，我認為管理層的一個有爭議的舉動可能在長期內會帶來回報。</p>
<p>去年，UPS 宣佈計劃到 2026 年底將其 <strong>亞馬遜</strong>（AMZN 1.08%）的運輸量削減超過 50%。考慮到亞馬遜是（並且仍然是）UPS 最大的客户，這一決定對一些觀察者來説似乎是瘋狂的。</p>
<p>然而，這一舉動背後的基本邏輯是合理的。UPS 為亞馬遜遞送的許多貨物利潤率較低。消除這一運輸量將使這家包裹遞送巨頭顯著降低成本結構，並在此過程中實際提高利潤率。由於亞馬遜的減少和其他效率舉措，UPS 預計在 2025 年全年將削減 35 億美元的開支。</p>
<p>與此同時，該公司正瞄準更高利潤率的業務。特別是，UPS 專注於複雜的醫療物流，這代表着大約 820 億美元的可尋址市場。該公司希望在 2025 年底之前完成對 Andlauer Healthcare Group 的收購。Andlauer 是一家為北美醫療行業提供物流和專業冷鏈運輸解決方案的加拿大公司。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzU0MjkveW91bmctd29tYW4tbG9va2luZy1hdC1sYXB0b3AuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzU0MjkveW91bmctd29tYW4tbG9va2luZy1hdC1sYXB0b3AuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>UPS 股價低於 90 美元時值得購買嗎？</h2>
<p>我認為增長型投資者不會覺得 UPS 的股票有吸引力。然而，即使在公司沒有面臨當前的逆風時情況也是如此。</p>
<p>另一方面，UPS 可能是價值投資者的不錯選擇。這隻股票的市盈率較低。我確實預計 UPS 的底線在未來會改善（儘管宏觀經濟的不確定性可能會持續一段時間）。</p>
<p>如果你是收入投資者，UPS 提供了 7.8% 的豐厚前瞻性股息收益率。董事會會決定削減股息嗎？也許，但目前看來這並不在計劃之內。Tomé在第二季度的財報電話會議中直面這一問題，表示：“我們知道股息對我們的投資者有多重要，你們可以信任我們會保持穩定和增長的股息。”</p>
<p>那麼 UPS 股價低於 90 美元時值得購買嗎？答案取決於你的投資風格。</p>

聯合包裹

<p>UPS 的股票在五年內下跌了 50%，並且從 2022 年初的高點下跌超過 60%，這引發了對其價值的質疑。儘管前瞻市盈率較低，為 11.2，但 2025 年第二季度的收入下降了 2.7%，公司面臨美國貿易政策和疲弱消費者信心的挑戰。然而，UPS 計劃減少對亞馬遜的貨運，以改善利潤率，並且目標是更高利潤率的醫療物流。雖然成長型投資者可能會避開 UPS，但價值投資者可能會覺得它具有吸引力，尤其是其 7.8% 的股息收益率。是否購買的決定取決於個人的投資風格</p>

<p>Good directions are critical for <strong>United Parcel Service</strong>'s (UPS 0.87%) fleet of 135,000 vehicles to deliver millions of packages to the right location every day. But the package delivery giant is going in the wrong direction with its share price. UPS stock has plunged roughly 50% over the last five years and is down more than 60% from its high set in early 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>良好的指引對於 <strong>聯合包裹</strong>（UPS 0.87%）的 135,000 輛車隊每天將數百萬包裹送到正確地點至關重要。但這家包裹遞送巨頭的股價卻走向了錯誤的方向。UPS 的股價在過去五年中暴跌了大約 50%，並且自 2022 年初的高點以來下跌超過 60%。</p>
</div><p>Sometimes such steep declines indicate that investors should look elsewhere. However, significant pullbacks can also present great buying opportunities. Should you buy UPS stock while it's below $90?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有時如此陡峭的下跌表明投資者應該尋找其他機會。然而，顯著的回調也可能帶來很好的買入機會。你應該在 UPS 股價低於 90 美元時買入嗎？</p>
</div><h2>Looking under UPS' hood</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>深入瞭解 UPS</h2>
</div><p>At least at first glance, the price seems to be right for buying UPS. The beaten-down stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of only 11.2. That low multiple could be viewed as a bargain by many investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>至少從表面上看，購買 UPS 的價格似乎是合適的。這隻被打壓的股票的前瞻市盈率僅為 11.2。這個低倍數可能被許多投資者視為一個便宜的機會。</p>
</div><p>However, others might be afraid that UPS could be a value trap. The company's revenue declined 2.7% year over year in the second quarter of 2025. Its adjusted diluted earnings per share sank 13.4%. UPS continues to face some serious challenges. There's so much macroeconomic uncertainty that the company didn't give revenue or operating profit guidance in its Q2 update.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，其他人可能會擔心 UPS 可能是一個價值陷阱。該公司在 2025 年第二季度的收入同比下降了 2.7%。調整後的稀釋每股收益下降了 13.4%。UPS 仍面臨一些嚴重的挑戰。由於宏觀經濟的不確定性，該公司在第二季度的更新中沒有給出收入或營業利潤的指導。</p>
</div><p>Much of that uncertainty centers around the Trump administration's tariffs. UPS CFO Brian Dykes revealed in the company's Q2 earnings call that U.S. trade policies led to a decline of roughly 35% in shipments between China and the U.S. in May and June. That's especially problematic because this is UPS' most profitable shipping lane.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種不確定性主要集中在特朗普政府的關税政策上。UPS 首席財務官 Brian Dykes 在公司的第二季度財報電話會議上透露，美國的貿易政策導致 5 月和 6 月中美之間的貨運量下降了大約 35%。這尤其成問題，因為這是 UPS 最盈利的運輸路線。</p>
</div><p>The U.S. small package market is also under pressure. UPS CEO Carol Tomé noted in the Q2 update that consumer sentiment was &#34;near historic lows.&#34; She also referenced weak U.S. manufacturing activity as a headwind.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國的小包裹市場也面臨壓力。UPS 首席執行官 Carol Tomé在第二季度的更新中指出，消費者信心 “接近歷史低點”。她還提到美國製造業活動疲軟是一個阻力。</p>
</div><h2>A better story than meets the eye?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>比表面看起來更好的故事？</h2>
</div><p>Despite the question marks hanging over UPS, the stock could offer a better story than meets the eye. For one thing, I think a controversial move by management could pay off over the long run.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管 UPS 面臨許多不確定性，但這隻股票可能提供一個比表面看起來更好的故事。首先，我認為管理層的一個有爭議的舉動可能在長期內會帶來回報。</p>
</div><p>Last year, UPS announced plans to cut its <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN 1.08%) shipment volumes by more than 50% by the end of 2026. This decision seemed crazy to some observers, considering that Amazon was (and still is) UPS' biggest customer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>去年，UPS 宣佈計劃到 2026 年底將其 <strong>亞馬遜</strong>（AMZN 1.08%）的運輸量削減超過 50%。考慮到亞馬遜是（並且仍然是）UPS 最大的客户，這一決定對一些觀察者來説似乎是瘋狂的。</p>
</div><p>However, the underlying logic behind the move makes sense. Many of the shipments UPS delivered for Amazon had low margins. Eliminating this volume will allow the package delivery giant to reduce its cost structure significantly and actually boost profit margins in the process. Because of the Amazon glide-down and other efficiency initiatives, UPS expects to cut expenses by $3.5 billion in full-year 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，這一舉動背後的基本邏輯是合理的。UPS 為亞馬遜遞送的許多貨物利潤率較低。消除這一運輸量將使這家包裹遞送巨頭顯著降低成本結構，並在此過程中實際提高利潤率。由於亞馬遜的減少和其他效率舉措，UPS 預計在 2025 年全年將削減 35 億美元的開支。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, the company is targeting higher-margin business. In particular, UPS is focusing on complex healthcare logistics, which represents a total addressable market of around $82 billion. The company hopes to close on its acquisition of Andlauer Healthcare Group by the end of 2025. Andlauer is a Canadian provider of logistics and specialized cold chain transportation solutions for the North American healthcare sector.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，該公司正瞄準更高利潤率的業務。特別是，UPS 專注於複雜的醫療物流，這代表着大約 820 億美元的可尋址市場。該公司希望在 2025 年底之前完成對 Andlauer Healthcare Group 的收購。Andlauer 是一家為北美醫療行業提供物流和專業冷鏈運輸解決方案的加拿大公司。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzU0MjkveW91bmctd29tYW4tbG9va2luZy1hdC1sYXB0b3AuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F835429%2Fyoung-woman-looking-at-laptop.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Is UPS stock a buy while it's below $90?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>UPS 股價低於 90 美元時值得購買嗎？</h2>
</div><p>I don't think growth investors will find UPS stock appealing at all. However, that would have been the case even when the company didn't face its current headwinds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我認為增長型投資者不會覺得 UPS 的股票有吸引力。然而，即使在公司沒有面臨當前的逆風時情況也是如此。</p>
</div><p>On the other hand, UPS could be a pretty good pick for value investors. The stock is trading at a low earnings multiple. I do expect UPS' bottom line to improve in the future (although the macroeconomic uncertainty could linger for a while).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，UPS 可能是價值投資者的不錯選擇。這隻股票的市盈率較低。我確實預計 UPS 的底線在未來會改善（儘管宏觀經濟的不確定性可能會持續一段時間）。</p>
</div><p>If you're an income investor, UPS offers a juicy forward dividend yield of 7.8%. Could the board of directors decide to cut the dividend? Maybe, but that doesn't seem in the cards for now. Tomé addressed this issue head-on in the Q2 earnings call, stating, &#34;We know how important the dividend is to our investors, and you have our commitment to a stable and growing dividend.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你是收入投資者，UPS 提供了 7.8% 的豐厚前瞻性股息收益率。董事會會決定削減股息嗎？也許，但目前看來這並不在計劃之內。Tomé在第二季度的財報電話會議中直面這一問題，表示：“我們知道股息對我們的投資者有多重要，你們可以信任我們會保持穩定和增長的股息。”</p>
</div><p>So is UPS stock a buy while it's below $90? The answer depends on your investing style.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那麼 UPS 股價低於 90 美元時值得購買嗎？答案取決於你的投資風格。</p>
</div>

在聯合包裹的股價低於 90 美元時，你是否應該購買該股票？