<p><strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong>(^GSPC 0.41%) 由來自經濟 11 個不同部門的 500 家公司組成。要被考慮納入該指數，必須滿足多個標準，包括公司市值至少為 227 億美元且必須盈利。但即使滿足這些條件，最終還是由一個特別委員會決定哪些候選公司能夠入選。</p>
<p>標準普爾 500 指數每季度重新平衡一次，這意味着不再符合標準的股票將被更合適的公司取代。最近一次重新平衡發生在 9 月 22 日，當時賭場運營商 <strong>凱撒娛樂</strong> 被 <strong>Robinhood Markets</strong>(HOOD 4.77%) 取代，後者運營着一個受歡迎的在線投資平台。</p>
<p>截至目前，Robinhood 的股票今年上漲了 208%，遠超人工智能 (AI) 巨頭 <strong>英偉達</strong> 和 <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong> 的表現，後者分別回報 28% 和 136%。這對 Robinhood 來説已經是巨大的收益了。這是否意味着投資者搭乘這列火車已經太晚了？請繼續閲讀。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzU0MjIvYW4taW52ZXN0b3ItbG9va2luZy1hdC1hLWNoYXJ0LW9uLXRoZWlyLWNvbXB1dGVyLXNjcmVlbi13aGlsZS1ob2xkaW5nLWEtc21hcnRwaG9uZS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzU0MjIvYW4taW52ZXN0b3ItbG9va2luZy1hdC1hLWNoYXJ0LW9uLXRoZWlyLWNvbXB1dGVyLXNjcmVlbi13aGlsZS1ob2xkaW5nLWEtc21hcnRwaG9uZS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>Robinhood 核心業務中出現令人擔憂的趨勢</h2>
<p>Robinhood 的總收入有兩個部分：</p>
<ol>
<li>交易收入，來自為客户處理股票、期權和加密貨幣交易。</li>
<li>淨利息收入，即 Robinhood 在其自身現金和客户存放在其平台上的現金上賺取的利息收入。公司還通過客户用於購買股票和其他金融資產的保證貸款賺取利息。</li>
</ol>
<p>交易收入是更重要的組成部分，因為它反映了其核心業務的表現。去年 11 月，唐納德·特朗普當選總統推動了交易活動的繁榮，尤其是在加密貨幣領域，因為他承諾削減監管並採取促進經濟增長的政策。這一變化對 Robinhood 來説是_非常好的_。</p>
<p>在 2024 年第四季度，公司交易收入達到創紀錄的 6.72 億美元，其中加密交易收入佔到 3.58 億美元。然而，特朗普的紅利很快消退——僅僅六個月後，在 2025 年第二季度（截至 6 月 30 日），Robinhood 的交易收入下降了 20%，降至 5.39 億美元，加密交易收入暴跌 55%，僅為 1.6 億美元。</p>
<p>許多流行的加密貨幣目前正在失去市場份額，因此投資者變得更加謹慎。<strong>狗狗幣</strong> 較其 52 周高點下跌了 51%，<strong>柴犬幣</strong> 下跌了 63%，<strong>XRP</strong> 下跌了 24%。甚至 <strong>比特幣</strong> 也損失了約 11% 的峯值價值。</p>
<p>這並不是 Robinhood 第一次在其加密業務中遭遇急劇下滑。該公司的加密收入在 2021 年第二季度飆升了 4560%，佔其總交易收入的一半。但在 2022 年第二季度，僅僅一年後，其加密收入就暴跌了 75%。</p>
<p>Robinhood 收入的縮減與其股價的飆升並不一致，這可能對投資者構成重大問題——但稍後會詳細討論。</p>
<h2>利率下降可能是另一個逆風</h2>
<p>美國聯邦儲備委員會在 2024 年最後幾個月將聯邦基金利率（隔夜利率）下調了三次，而幾周前的 9 月 17 日，中央銀行進行了 2025 年的首次降息。利率下降通常會對 Robinhood 的淨利息收入構成逆風，但由於保證貸款和客户現金餘額的急劇增加，這一影響正在被抵消。</p>
<p>截至第二季度末，客户在 Robinhood 平台上持有 87 億美元現金，幾乎是去年同期的兩倍。公司的保證貸款餘額也達到了創紀錄的 95 億美元。</p>
<p>因此，第二季度的淨利息收入實際上同比增長了 25%，達到 3.57 億美元。然而，我不認為公司的保證貸款餘額和客户現金餘額的增長會永遠超過利率下降的幅度。</p>
<p>例如，股市修正可能會導致保證貸款餘額下降，因為投資者減少對風險的暴露。此外，在經濟衰退的情況下，投資者可能會從交易賬户中提取現金，以優先考慮日常開支。</p>
<h2>Robinhood 股票可能面臨急劇修正</h2>
<p>Robinhood 股票今年驚人的 208% 漲幅，加上公司收入的縮減，導致其市銷率 (P/S) 飆升至 30.8——是自 2021 年上市以來平均值 10.2 的三倍。這被稱為倍數擴張，像這樣的極端情況幾乎總是不可持續的。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4f6f3b2d3958c5684e22d8b1e466eed6.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4f6f3b2d3958c5684e22d8b1e466eed6.png"/></p>
<p>數據來源於 YCharts；PS = 市價與銷售額比。</p>
<p>因此，除非 Robinhood 能夠找到從這裏實現顯著收入增長的方法，否則其股票可能註定要經歷急劇修正。為了使其市銷率與長期平均值 10.2 相符，股價必須下跌 67%，這並非不可能，因為在上一次加密熱潮後，其股價從 2021 年的高點暴跌了超過 80%。</p>
<p>Robinhood 的月活躍用户在今年的第一和第二季度均有所減少，隨着活躍交易客户的減少，公司找到更多收入的機會將變得更加困難。因此，現在購買 Robinhood 股票可能不是一個好主意，而已經持有該股票的投資者可能想要兑現部分收益。</p>

HOOD

<p>Robinhood Markets 最近在標準普爾 500 指數中取代了 Caesars Entertainment，股票今年上漲了 208%，表現超過了 Nvidia 和 Palantir。然而，Robinhood 的交易收入顯著下降，尤其是在加密貨幣交易方面，這引發了擔憂。此外，儘管保證金貸款有所增加，但利率下降可能會影響其淨利息收入。該股票的市銷率飆升至 30.8，令人對其可持續性和未來可能的修正產生疑問</p>

<p>The <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(^GSPC 0.41%) is made up of 500 companies from 11 different sectors of the economy. To be considered for a spot in the index, there are multiple criteria, including that companies must have a market capitalization of at least $22.7 billion and must be profitable. But even after ticking those boxes, a special committee ultimately decides which candidates make the cut.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong>(^GSPC 0.41%) 由來自經濟 11 個不同部門的 500 家公司組成。要被考慮納入該指數，必須滿足多個標準，包括公司市值至少為 227 億美元且必須盈利。但即使滿足這些條件，最終還是由一個特別委員會決定哪些候選公司能夠入選。</p>
</div><p>The S&amp;P 500 is rebalanced once per quarter, meaning stocks that no longer meet the criteria are removed in favor of more suitable names. The most recent rebalance occurred on Sept. 22, when casino operator <strong>Caesars Entertainment</strong> was replaced by <strong>Robinhood Markets</strong>(HOOD 4.77%), which operates a popular online investing platform.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>標準普爾 500 指數每季度重新平衡一次，這意味着不再符合標準的股票將被更合適的公司取代。最近一次重新平衡發生在 9 月 22 日，當時賭場運營商 <strong>凱撒娛樂</strong> 被 <strong>Robinhood Markets</strong>(HOOD 4.77%) 取代，後者運營着一個受歡迎的在線投資平台。</p>
</div><p>Robinhood stock is trading up 208% so far this year, crushing the comparable performances of artificial intelligence (AI) powerhouses <strong>Nvidia</strong> and <strong>Palantir Technologies,</strong> which have returned 28% and 136%, respectively. That's a ton of gains already for Robinhood. Does it mean it's too late for investors to board this train? Read on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至目前，Robinhood 的股票今年上漲了 208%，遠超人工智能 (AI) 巨頭 <strong>英偉達</strong> 和 <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong> 的表現，後者分別回報 28% 和 136%。這對 Robinhood 來説已經是巨大的收益了。這是否意味着投資者搭乘這列火車已經太晚了？請繼續閲讀。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzU0MjIvYW4taW52ZXN0b3ItbG9va2luZy1hdC1hLWNoYXJ0LW9uLXRoZWlyLWNvbXB1dGVyLXNjcmVlbi13aGlsZS1ob2xkaW5nLWEtc21hcnRwaG9uZS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F835422%2Fan-investor-looking-at-a-chart-on-their-computer-screen-while-holding-a-smartphone.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Concerning trends are emerging in Robinhood's core business</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Robinhood 核心業務中出現令人擔憂的趨勢</h2>
</div><p>There are two parts to Robinhood's total revenue:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Robinhood 的總收入有兩個部分：</p>
</div><ol>
<li>Transaction revenue, which comes from processing stock, option, and cryptocurrency trades for clients.</li>
<li>Net interest revenue, which is the interest income Robinhood earns on its own cash, and the cash clients store on its platform. The company also earns interest on margin loans, which clients use to buy stocks and other financial assets.</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li>交易收入，來自為客户處理股票、期權和加密貨幣交易。</li>
<li>淨利息收入，即 Robinhood 在其自身現金和客户存放在其平台上的現金上賺取的利息收入。公司還通過客户用於購買股票和其他金融資產的保證貸款賺取利息。</li>
</ol>
</div><p>Transaction revenue is the more important component, because it reflects the performance of its core business. President Donald Trump's election win last November drove a boom in trading activity, but especially in the cryptocurrency space, as he promised to slash regulation and adopt policies that would boost economic growth. This change ended up being <em>great</em> for Robinhood.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>交易收入是更重要的組成部分，因為它反映了其核心業務的表現。去年 11 月，唐納德·特朗普當選總統推動了交易活動的繁榮，尤其是在加密貨幣領域，因為他承諾削減監管並採取促進經濟增長的政策。這一變化對 Robinhood 來説是_非常好的_。</p>
</div><p>In the fourth quarter of 2024, the company's transaction revenue hit an all-time high of $672 million, with crypto transaction revenue making up $358 million of that figure. However, the Trump bump quickly faded -- just six months later, in the second quarter of 2025 (ended June 30), Robinhood's transaction revenue was down 20% to $539 million, with crypto transaction revenue plummeting 55% to just $160 million.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2024 年第四季度，公司交易收入達到創紀錄的 6.72 億美元，其中加密交易收入佔到 3.58 億美元。然而，特朗普的紅利很快消退——僅僅六個月後，在 2025 年第二季度（截至 6 月 30 日），Robinhood 的交易收入下降了 20%，降至 5.39 億美元，加密交易收入暴跌 55%，僅為 1.6 億美元。</p>
</div><p>Many popular cryptocurrencies are losing ground right now, so investors are being more cautious. <strong>Dogecoin</strong> is down 51% from its 52-week high, <strong>Shiba Inu</strong> is down 63%, and <strong>XRP</strong> has declined by 24%. Even <strong>Bitcoin</strong> has lost around 11% of its peak value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>許多流行的加密貨幣目前正在失去市場份額，因此投資者變得更加謹慎。<strong>狗狗幣</strong> 較其 52 周高點下跌了 51%，<strong>柴犬幣</strong> 下跌了 63%，<strong>XRP</strong> 下跌了 24%。甚至 <strong>比特幣</strong> 也損失了約 11% 的峯值價值。</p>
</div><p>This isn't the first time Robinhood has suffered a sharp downturn in its crypto business. The company's crypto revenue soared 4,560% in the second quarter of 2021 and accounted for half its total transaction revenue. But in the second quarter of 2022, just one year later, its crypto revenue had plummeted by 75%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這並不是 Robinhood 第一次在其加密業務中遭遇急劇下滑。該公司的加密收入在 2021 年第二季度飆升了 4560%，佔其總交易收入的一半。但在 2022 年第二季度，僅僅一年後，其加密收入就暴跌了 75%。</p>
</div><p>Robinhood's shrinking revenue doesn't align with its surging stock price, and this could be a major problem for investors -- but more on this later.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Robinhood 收入的縮減與其股價的飆升並不一致，這可能對投資者構成重大問題——但稍後會詳細討論。</p>
</div><h2>Falling interest rates could be another headwind</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>利率下降可能是另一個逆風</h2>
</div><p>The U.S. Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate (the overnight interest rate) three times in the final months of 2024, and a few weeks ago, on Sept. 17, the central bank executed its first cut of 2025. Falling interest rates would normally be a headwind for Robinhood's net interest income, but it's being offset by a sharp increase in margin loans and client cash balances.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國聯邦儲備委員會在 2024 年最後幾個月將聯邦基金利率（隔夜利率）下調了三次，而幾周前的 9 月 17 日，中央銀行進行了 2025 年的首次降息。利率下降通常會對 Robinhood 的淨利息收入構成逆風，但由於保證貸款和客户現金餘額的急劇增加，這一影響正在被抵消。</p>
</div><p>At the end of the second quarter, clients were holding $8.7 billion in cash on Robinhood's platform, which nearly doubled from the year-ago period. The company's margin loan book was also at a record high of $9.5 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至第二季度末，客户在 Robinhood 平台上持有 87 億美元現金，幾乎是去年同期的兩倍。公司的保證貸款餘額也達到了創紀錄的 95 億美元。</p>
</div><p>As a result, second-quarter net interest income actually grew by 25% year over year to $357 million. However, I wouldn't expect the growth in the company's margin loan book and client cash balances to outrun the decline in interest rates forever.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，第二季度的淨利息收入實際上同比增長了 25%，達到 3.57 億美元。然而，我不認為公司的保證貸款餘額和客户現金餘額的增長會永遠超過利率下降的幅度。</p>
</div><p>A stock market correction, for example, could trigger a decline in margin loan balances as investors pare their exposure to risk. Moreover, investors might pull cash out of their trading accounts in the event of an economic recession, as they prioritize day-to-day expenses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，股市修正可能會導致保證貸款餘額下降，因為投資者減少對風險的暴露。此外，在經濟衰退的情況下，投資者可能會從交易賬户中提取現金，以優先考慮日常開支。</p>
</div><h2>Robinhood stock could be heading for a sharp correction</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Robinhood 股票可能面臨急劇修正</h2>
</div><p>The incredible 208% gain in Robinhood stock this year, combined with the company's shrinking revenue, has sent its price-to-sales ratio (P/S) surging to 30.8 -- three times higher than its average of 10.2 since it went public in 2021. This is known as a multiple expansion, and an extreme one like this is almost always unsustainable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Robinhood 股票今年驚人的 208% 漲幅，加上公司收入的縮減，導致其市銷率 (P/S) 飆升至 30.8——是自 2021 年上市以來平均值 10.2 的三倍。這被稱為倍數擴張，像這樣的極端情況幾乎總是不可持續的。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4f6f3b2d3958c5684e22d8b1e466eed6.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4f6f3b2d3958c5684e22d8b1e466eed6.png"/></p>
<p>Data by YCharts; PS = price to sales.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源於 YCharts；PS = 市價與銷售額比。</p>
</div><p>As a result, unless Robinhood can find a way to deliver significant revenue growth from here, its stock might be destined for a sharp correction. It would have to decline by 67% just for its P/S to align with its long-term average of 10.2, which isn't out of the question because it plummeted by more than 80% from its 2021 peak after the last crypto boom.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，除非 Robinhood 能夠找到從這裏實現顯著收入增長的方法，否則其股票可能註定要經歷急劇修正。為了使其市銷率與長期平均值 10.2 相符，股價必須下跌 67%，這並非不可能，因為在上一次加密熱潮後，其股價從 2021 年的高點暴跌了超過 80%。</p>
</div><p>Robinhood's monthly active user base shrank in both the first and second quarters this year, and it won't be easy for the company to find more revenue with fewer clients actively trading on its platform. Therefore, it probably isn't a good idea to buy Robinhood stock right now, and investors who already own it might want to cash in some of their gains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Robinhood 的月活躍用户在今年的第一和第二季度均有所減少，隨着活躍交易客户的減少，公司找到更多收入的機會將變得更加困難。因此，現在購買 Robinhood 股票可能不是一個好主意，而已經持有該股票的投資者可能想要兑現部分收益。</p>
</div>

The Newest Stock in the S&P 500 Is Obliterating Nvidia and Palantir This Year. Is It Too Late to Buy?

- 標普 500 指數包含 500 家公司，最近一次重組發生在 9 月 22 日。  
- Robinhood 股票今年上漲 208%，但其收入卻在下降。  
- 由於收入萎縮，Robinhood 股票可能面臨大幅回調風險。

標普 500 指數中的最新股票今年表現優於英偉達和 Palantir。現在購買是否已經太晚？