<p>就業是整體經濟健康最重要的因素之一，因此當 <strong>ADP</strong> 在週三報告稱九月份私營部門就業減少了 32,000 個職位時，這似乎是個壞消息。</p>
<p>本月的 ADP 報告尤其重要，因為勞工統計局的官方失業報告原定於週五發佈，但預計由於政府停擺將被推遲。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzU3OTMvbWFya2V0LWRhdGEuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzU3OTMvbWFya2V0LWRhdGEuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>ADP 數據所顯示的情況</h2>
<p>根據 ADP 的數據，中小型企業在九月份受到的打擊最大，失去了 60,000 個職位，而員工超過 500 人的公司則增加了 33,000 個職位。</p>
<p>這並不令人驚訝，因為中小型企業往往對宏觀經濟因素比大型企業更敏感。失去職位的行業包括建築、製造、貿易、運輸和公用事業；金融服務、專業和商業服務；以及休閒和酒店業。</p>
<p>這些主要是週期性行業，這可能暗示着衰退的開始。至少，這清楚地表明經濟正在減弱。</p>
<p>ADP 首席經濟學家 Nela Richardson 在報告中表示，這一數字&#34;進一步驗證了我們在勞動力市場上看到的情況，即美國僱主在招聘方面一直很謹慎。&#34;</p>
<h2>這對投資者意味着什麼</h2>
<p>市場似乎對這一消息不以為然，因為根據主要指數，股票在東部時間中午時基本持平，而該報告可能被政府停擺的第一天所掩蓋。</p>
<p>這些疲弱的數據遠遠低於預期的 45,000 個新增職位，而八月份的結果從增加 54,000 個職位修正為減少 3,000 個職位。</p>
<p>疲弱的就業報告並不像看起來那麼簡單。雖然投資者熱衷於避免衰退，但乏力的勞動力市場將促使美聯儲繼續降息，這對股市有利。較低的利率鼓勵企業借貸和擴張，降低了貼現現金流等金融模型中的貼現率，並使債券相較於股票的吸引力降低。</p>
<p>這是一種微妙的平衡，但考慮到高企的利率和普遍較低的失業率，投資者似乎願意對一個月的適度失業數據置之不理。此外，ADP 報告的影響力不及 BLS 的報告。</p>
<p>目前，一個月的疲弱數據並不是警報的理由，但投資者應密切關注即將發佈的勞動力市場報告。如果就業市場繼續惡化，可能會比大多數投資者想象的更早影響股市。此外，政府停擺可能意味着公共部門數千人裁員，進一步加劇勞動力市場的困境。</p>

自動數據處理

<p>ADP 報告顯示，九月份私營部門就業崗位減少了 32,000 個，其中中小型企業失去了 60,000 個崗位。這表明經濟正在減弱，因為建築和製造等週期性行業受到了影響。儘管報告疲軟，但股市保持穩定，因為投資者預期疲軟的勞動力市場可能會導致聯邦儲備委員會降息，從而利好股票。然而，持續的就業市場惡化可能會影響股市，尤其是在政府停擺可能導致公共部門裁員的情況下</p>

<p>Employment is one of the most important factors in the health of the overall economy so it seemed like bad news when <strong>ADP</strong> reported on Wednesday that private-sector employment was down by 32,000 jobs in September.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就業是整體經濟健康最重要的因素之一，因此當 <strong>ADP</strong> 在週三報告稱九月份私營部門就業減少了 32,000 個職位時，這似乎是個壞消息。</p>
</div><p>The ADP report is especially important this month, because the official unemployment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which was due out on Friday, is expected to be delayed due to the government shutdown.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本月的 ADP 報告尤其重要，因為勞工統計局的官方失業報告原定於週五發佈，但預計由於政府停擺將被推遲。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzU3OTMvbWFya2V0LWRhdGEuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F835793%2Fmarket-data.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>What the ADP data shows</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>ADP 數據所顯示的情況</h2>
</div><p>According to ADP, small and medium-sized businesses were hit the hardest in September, losing 60,000 jobs, while companies with more than 500 employees added 33,000 jobs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 ADP 的數據，中小型企業在九月份受到的打擊最大，失去了 60,000 個職位，而員工超過 500 人的公司則增加了 33,000 個職位。</p>
</div><p>That's not surprising, as small and medium-sized businesses tend to be more sensitive to macroeconomic factors than large corporations. Among the industries that lost jobs were construction, manufacturing, trade, transportation, and utilities; financial services, professional, and business services; and leisure and hospitality.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這並不令人驚訝，因為中小型企業往往對宏觀經濟因素比大型企業更敏感。失去職位的行業包括建築、製造、貿易、運輸和公用事業；金融服務、專業和商業服務；以及休閒和酒店業。</p>
</div><p>Those are primarily cyclical businesses, which could hint at the beginning of a recession. At the very least, it's a clear sign of a weakening economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些主要是週期性行業，這可能暗示着衰退的開始。至少，這清楚地表明經濟正在減弱。</p>
</div><p>ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said in the report that the number &#34;further validates what we've been seeing in the labor market, that U.S. employers have been cautious with hiring.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ADP 首席經濟學家 Nela Richardson 在報告中表示，這一數字&#34;進一步驗證了我們在勞動力市場上看到的情況，即美國僱主在招聘方面一直很謹慎。&#34;</p>
</div><h2>What it means for investors</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>這對投資者意味着什麼</h2>
</div><p>The market seemed to shrug off the news, as stocks were essentially flat around noon ET based on the major indexes, and the report may have been overshadowed by the first day of the government shutdown.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場似乎對這一消息不以為然，因為根據主要指數，股票在東部時間中午時基本持平，而該報告可能被政府停擺的第一天所掩蓋。</p>
</div><p>The weak numbers were significantly worse than expectations of 45,000 net new jobs, and August's results were revised down from a gain of 54,000 jobs to a loss of 3,000.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些疲弱的數據遠遠低於預期的 45,000 個新增職位，而八月份的結果從增加 54,000 個職位修正為減少 3,000 個職位。</p>
</div><p>A weak jobs report isn't as straightforward as it might seem. While investors are keen on avoiding a recession, a lackluster labor market will encourage the Federal Reserve to keep cutting interest rates, which favors the stock market. Lower rates encourage business borrowing and expansion, lower the discount rates in financial models like the discounted cash flow, and make bonds less attractive compared to stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>疲弱的就業報告並不像看起來那麼簡單。雖然投資者熱衷於避免衰退，但乏力的勞動力市場將促使美聯儲繼續降息，這對股市有利。較低的利率鼓勵企業借貸和擴張，降低了貼現現金流等金融模型中的貼現率，並使債券相較於股票的吸引力降低。</p>
</div><p>It's a delicate balance, but investors seem willing to shrug off one month of modest job losses, given elevated interest rates and a generally low unemployment rate. Additionally, the ADP report doesn't carry the same clout as the one from the BLS.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這是一種微妙的平衡，但考慮到高企的利率和普遍較低的失業率，投資者似乎願意對一個月的適度失業數據置之不理。此外，ADP 報告的影響力不及 BLS 的報告。</p>
</div><p>For now, one month's worth of weak numbers isn't a reason for alarm, but investors should keep a close eye on upcoming labor market reports. If the job market continues to deteriorate, it could impact the stock market sooner than most investors think. Additionally, the government shutdown could mean thousands of layoffs in the public sector, adding to woes in the labor market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，一個月的疲弱數據並不是警報的理由，但投資者應密切關注即將發佈的勞動力市場報告。如果就業市場繼續惡化，可能會比大多數投資者想象的更早影響股市。此外，政府停擺可能意味着公共部門數千人裁員，進一步加劇勞動力市場的困境。</p>
</div>

ADP Data Points to Cooling Jobs Market -- What Investors Should Take Away

- ADP 報告顯示，9 月私營部門就業減少 32,000 個職位，尤其是中小企業受影響嚴重。  
- 大型企業則增加 33,000 個職位，顯示出經濟疲軟的跡象。  
- 投資者對這一消息反應平淡，但需關注未來的就業市場報告。  

自動數據處理的數據顯示就業市場正在降温——投資者應該關注哪些方面