<p>根據 S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence 提供的數據，<strong>惠而浦</strong>(WHR 0.63%) 的股票在九月份下跌了 15.6%。此次下跌是由於投資者在利率下調的消息發佈後&#34;拋售&#34;以及債券市場對美聯儲在九月中旬降息的反應相對令人失望。然而，仍然可以提出在股價回調時買入該股票的看漲理由。以下是詳細信息。</p>
<h2>惠而浦面臨的艱難 2025 年</h2>
<p>今年有兩個重大外部事件影響惠而浦。第一個是利率對房地產市場的影響，特別是對房屋銷售量的影響。房主通常會在準備出售房屋或搬入新購房屋時進行大宗家電的可自由支配支出。</p>
<p>因此，當抵押貸款利率上升並對房屋銷售施加壓力時（見下圖），惠而浦的高利潤可自由支配銷售將受到削弱。實際上，管理層在第二季度的財報發佈會上指出，從 2015 年到 2020 年，美國對家電的可自由支配購買需求佔總需求的 30%。然而，到 2025 年，這一數字已降至僅 20%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7a78544e5bc536f1736ac3eb6385aa5c.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7a78544e5bc536f1736ac3eb6385aa5c.png"/></p>
<p>30 年期抵押貸款利率數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
<h2>外部競爭與關税</h2>
<p>第二個事件是亞洲競爭對手在年初關税威脅下的反應，以及在對亞洲國家實施關税後（隨後暫停至 8 月 1 日）的行為。在這兩種情況下，惠而浦的亞洲競爭對手都通過提前向市場投放庫存來應對關税的全面影響。</p>
<p>再加上房地產市場持續疲軟，這就形成了一個激烈競爭的定價和促銷環境。這正是惠而浦今年所經歷的情況，直到亞洲競爭對手將其提前投放到市場的庫存銷售完畢，這種情況不太可能緩解——在低利率環境下，這一過程將會更快發生。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzYyODcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTA5MDIxNzM2OC0xMjAweDgwMC01YjJkZjc5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzYyODcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTA5MDIxNzM2OC0xMjAweDgwMC01YjJkZjc5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>九月發生了什麼</h2>
<p>雖然無法確切知道投資者的行為原因，但我最好的猜測是，投資者在降息傳聞中買入了該股票，然後在降息消息發佈後賣出。</p>
<p>此外，現實情況是，市場利率和抵押貸款利率與美聯儲在九月中旬降息時的水平基本保持不變。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/bf5018f9e36a406d9dfecf17ce532c6f.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/bf5018f9e36a406d9dfecf17ce532c6f.png"/></p>
<p>30 年期抵押貸款利率數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
<h2>惠而浦的未來</h2>
<p>惠而浦面臨的壓力不會迅速得到解決，而且其近期競爭表現不佳的原因不太可能完全歸因於外部因素。也就是説，該公司現在 62% 的銷售來自北美的大型家電，而其在美國銷售的 80% 是在美國製造的。</p>
<p>換句話説，它在特朗普政府的關税政策下處於有利位置，如果能夠度過這一困難時期，明年可能會為公司創造一個顯著更好的環境。</p>

惠而浦

<p>惠而浦的股票在九月份下跌了 15.6%，原因是投資者對美聯儲降息和疲軟的債券市場的反應。受抵押貸款利率上升的影響，房地產市場的困境使得可選家電的銷售預計到 2025 年將從 30% 降至 20%。此外，亞洲競爭對手由於提前囤積庫存以應對關税，增加了市場壓力。儘管面臨這些挑戰，惠而浦強大的國內生產能力使其有可能從關税政策中受益，如果能夠渡過當前的競爭環境，前景將更為樂觀</p>

<p><strong>Whirlpool</strong>(WHR 0.63%) shares declined by 15.6% in September, according to data provided by S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence. The decline comes down to a combination of investors &#34;selling on the news&#34; of a rate cut and a relatively disappointing bond market reaction to the Federal Reserve rate cut in mid-September. Still, there's a bull case to be made for buying the stock in a dip. Here's the lowdown.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence 提供的數據，<strong>惠而浦</strong>(WHR 0.63%) 的股票在九月份下跌了 15.6%。此次下跌是由於投資者在利率下調的消息發佈後&#34;拋售&#34;以及債券市場對美聯儲在九月中旬降息的反應相對令人失望。然而，仍然可以提出在股價回調時買入該股票的看漲理由。以下是詳細信息。</p>
</div><h2>Whirlpool's difficult 2025</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>惠而浦面臨的艱難 2025 年</h2>
</div><p>Two big external events are impacting Whirlpool this year. The first is the impact of interest rates on the housing market, specifically on home sales volumes. Homeowners typically undertake discretionary spending on major domestic appliances as they prepare their homes for sale or move into a recently purchased home.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年有兩個重大外部事件影響惠而浦。第一個是利率對房地產市場的影響，特別是對房屋銷售量的影響。房主通常會在準備出售房屋或搬入新購房屋時進行大宗家電的可自由支配支出。</p>
</div><p>As such, when mortgage rates rise and put pressure on home sales (see the chart below), Whirlpool's higher-margin discretionary sales will be weakened. Indeed, management noted in its second-quarter earnings presentation that U.S. demand for appliances from discretionary purchases contributed 30% of the total demand from 2015 to 2020. Still, that figure had dropped to just 20% by 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，當抵押貸款利率上升並對房屋銷售施加壓力時（見下圖），惠而浦的高利潤可自由支配銷售將受到削弱。實際上，管理層在第二季度的財報發佈會上指出，從 2015 年到 2020 年，美國對家電的可自由支配購買需求佔總需求的 30%。然而，到 2025 年，這一數字已降至僅 20%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7a78544e5bc536f1736ac3eb6385aa5c.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7a78544e5bc536f1736ac3eb6385aa5c.png"/></p>
<p>30 Year Mortgage Rate data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>30 年期抵押貸款利率數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
</div><h2>Foreign competition and tariffs</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>外部競爭與關税</h2>
</div><p>The second event is the behavior of Asian competitors in response to the threat of tariffs earlier in the year and then after the tariffs on Asian countries were imposed, which were subsequently paused until Aug. 1. In both cases, Whirlpool's Asian competitors responded by preloading the market ahead of the full impact of tariffs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第二個事件是亞洲競爭對手在年初關税威脅下的反應，以及在對亞洲國家實施關税後（隨後暫停至 8 月 1 日）的行為。在這兩種情況下，惠而浦的亞洲競爭對手都通過提前向市場投放庫存來應對關税的全面影響。</p>
</div><p>Throw in the ongoing weakness in the housing market, and there's a perfect recipe for an intensely competitive pricing and promotional environment. That's precisely what happened to Whirlpool this year, and it's unlikely to ease until Asian competitors sell down the inventory they've loaded into the market -- something that would occur much more quickly in a lower interest rate environment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>再加上房地產市場持續疲軟，這就形成了一個激烈競爭的定價和促銷環境。這正是惠而浦今年所經歷的情況，直到亞洲競爭對手將其提前投放到市場的庫存銷售完畢，這種情況不太可能緩解——在低利率環境下，這一過程將會更快發生。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzYyODcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTA5MDIxNzM2OC0xMjAweDgwMC01YjJkZjc5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F836287%2Fgettyimages-1090217368-1200x800-5b2df79.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>What happened in September</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>九月發生了什麼</h2>
</div><p>While it's impossible to know precisely why investors behave the way they do, my best guess would be that investors bought the stock on the rumor of a rate cut and then sold it on the news of it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然無法確切知道投資者的行為原因，但我最好的猜測是，投資者在降息傳聞中買入了該股票，然後在降息消息發佈後賣出。</p>
</div><p>In addition, the reality is that market rates and mortgage rates are largely unchanged from their levels when the Federal Reserve cut its rate in mid-September.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，現實情況是，市場利率和抵押貸款利率與美聯儲在九月中旬降息時的水平基本保持不變。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/bf5018f9e36a406d9dfecf17ce532c6f.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/bf5018f9e36a406d9dfecf17ce532c6f.png"/></p>
<p>30 Year Mortgage Rate data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>30 年期抵押貸款利率數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
</div><h2>What's next for Whirlpool</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>惠而浦的未來</h2>
</div><p>There won't be a quick fix to Whirlpool's pressures, and it's unlikely that all of its recent competitive underperformance is due to external factors. That said, the company now generates 62% of its sales from major domestic appliances in North America, and 80% of what it sells in the U.S. is made in the US.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>惠而浦面臨的壓力不會迅速得到解決，而且其近期競爭表現不佳的原因不太可能完全歸因於外部因素。也就是説，該公司現在 62% 的銷售來自北美的大型家電，而其在美國銷售的 80% 是在美國製造的。</p>
</div><p>In other words, it's well positioned to benefit from the Trump administration's tariff regime, and if it can navigate a difficult period, next year could be a significantly better environment for the company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>換句話説，它在特朗普政府的關税政策下處於有利位置，如果能夠度過這一困難時期，明年可能會為公司創造一個顯著更好的環境。</p>
</div>

Here's Why Whirlpool Shares Slumped in September

- 惠而浦 (Whirlpool) 股價在 9 月下跌 15.6%。  
- 主要原因是利率下降的消息引發投資者拋售，以及債券市場反應不佳。  
- 外部因素包括利率對住房市場的影響和亞洲競爭對手的市場行為。  

惠而浦股票在九月份下跌的原因如下