<p>面對現實吧——當你知道如果公司的情況發生變化，你可以出售某項投資時，説這是一項終身持有的投資是很容易的。真正的 “永恆” 交易是相對罕見的。</p>
<p>然而，有一些上市公司不僅是為長久而建，更是為無限繁榮而建。它們的股票不僅是終身投資，甚至可能改變生活。<strong>台積電</strong>（TSM 1.50%）就是其中之一。以下是原因。</p>
<h2>TSMC 是什麼，以及不是</h2>
<p>如果你恰好從未聽説過，顧名思義，台積電（Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing），更廣為人知的是 TSMC，製造計算機芯片。事實上，你很可能是其產品的常規用户。因為它並不製造自己的品牌設計。TSMC 實際上是其他芯片公司的硅的合同製造商。<strong>蘋果</strong>、<strong>英偉達</strong>（Nvidia）（NVDA -0.77%）和 <strong>高通</strong> 只是其客户中的一部分。實際上，這家公司製造了全球約三分之二的半導體，並且據報道製造了全球每十個最先進的高性能芯片中的九個。</p>
<p>幾乎不需要説，沒有台積電，世界的微芯片格局將會大相徑庭。</p>
<p>是的，這種製造集中度對半導體行業來説是一個問題，因為行業不希望依賴單一的供應商/服務提供商——這一責任在 COVID-19 大流行期間達到了頂峯。當往返台灣的供應鏈崩潰時，大多數科技公司實際上陷入了困境。在此期間，一些公司試圖建立自己的芯片代工廠。例如，<strong>英特爾</strong>（Intel）（INTC -1.25%）預算了 280 億美元的初始投資，以在俄亥俄州建立一座全新的生產設施，以及另外 320 億美元用於在亞利桑那州建造一座芯片工廠。2022 年，另有 330 億歐元被 earmarked 用於在歐洲投資半導體研發設施。</p>
<p>然而，有一個原因是，這些計劃中的支出大部分已經縮減、推遲或完全取消。也就是説，建立新的計算機芯片製造基礎設施既昂貴又複雜，使得進入這一行業變得困難。</p>
<p>這種動態當然對 TSMC 繼續主導業務是個好兆頭。</p>
<h2>TSMC 在近期或遠期沒有嚴重放緩的跡象</h2>
<p>這並不是説 TSMC 對芯片行業的常見挑戰無動於衷。舉個例子：該公司的收入在 2023 年下降了超過 4%——當整個半導體行業遭遇後疫情的逆風時——導致利潤同比下降了 18%。</p>
<p>競爭也在逐漸滲入。例如，儘管英特爾正在大幅縮減其成為主要半導體代工廠的計劃，但關於 TSMC 客户 <strong>超微</strong>（Advanced Micro Devices）正在考慮與英特爾建立生產關係的可信傳聞正在流傳，而 <strong>微軟</strong> 則是確認的英特爾代工客户。這並不是一個重大的收入勝利，但確實是一個高調的勝利。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzU5MDUvdHJhY2tpbmctaW52ZXN0bWVudHMtd2VhbHRoLWZhbWlseS1wbGFubmluZy5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzU5MDUvdHJhY2tpbmctaW52ZXN0bWVudHMtd2VhbHRoLWZhbWlseS1wbGFubmluZy5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>儘管如此，對新型和更好芯片的需求不僅仍在增長，而且還在加速。英特爾和其他潛在製造商無法快速建立代工廠，迫使行業繼續依賴 TSMC，而後者擁有當前業務所需的生產能力。為了提供一個參考，該公司去年大約生產了 1700 萬片 12 英寸（或等效）晶圓，價值約 900 億美元。這在半導體行業中同比增長了 34%，而半導體行業協會表示，2024 年該行業僅增長了 19%。</p>
<p>當然，要歸功於人工智能的崛起，這正在為計算處理器和相關微芯片創造巨大的需求。</p>
<p>問題是，這只是對近期和遠期未來的一個預覽，因為人工智能使得數字化一切變得簡單而有利。德勤認為，全球半導體市場預計將從今年不到 7000 億美元增長到 2030 年的 1 萬億美元，並在 2040 年達到 2 萬億美元。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzU5MDUvMTAwMTI1LXRzbS1yZXN1bHRzLnBuZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="497" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzU5MDUvMTAwMTI1LXRzbS1yZXN1bHRzLnBuZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>數據來源：CNBC，MarketWatch，StockAnalysis，Simply Wall St. 作者繪製的圖表。收入和淨收入以新台幣計。每股收益以美元計，反映其相對於 TSMC ADR 的相對貨幣調整水平。</p>
<p>當然，TSMC 將在這一增長中佔據重要地位。它必須如此。</p>
<h2>成為 “聰明的人”，購買這隻合理估值的成長股</h2>
<p>所以，是的——今天購買 TSMC 股票可能會讓你終身受益，即使這不會在一夜之間實現。它可能會像 <strong>蘋果</strong> 和 <strong>亞馬遜</strong> 一樣改變生活，長期提供超越市場的收益。</p>
<p>説到這裏，也許擁有台積電長期股份的最佳理由不是定量的，而是定性的、軼事的。在八月份，英偉達首席執行官黃仁勳評論道：“我認為 TSMC 是人類歷史上最偉大的公司之一，任何想購買 TSMC 股票的人都是非常聰明的人。” 然後他在上個月再次重申了這一樂觀態度，聲稱：“你無法誇大 TSMC 的魔力。”</p>
<p>這是強有力的讚美，來自一個行業內部人士，他會知道。</p>
<p>如果你感興趣，請不要拖延。儘管 TSMC 的股票最近又創下了新高，但其估值仍合理，低於今年預期每股收益 9.85 美元的 30 倍。你不會在這樣一家成長型公司中找到更低的估值，而這家公司預計將在未來許多年以穩健的兩位數速度增長。</p>

台積電

半導體 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>台灣半導體制造公司（TSMC）因其在半導體行業的主導地位而被認為是一項可能改變生活的投資，該公司生產了全球約三分之二的芯片。儘管最近利潤有所下降，但對先進芯片的需求正在加速增長，這主要受到人工智能崛起的推動。TSMC 的增長前景強勁，預計到 2030 年全球半導體市場將達到 1 萬億美元。今天投資 TSMC 股票可能會帶來顯著的長期收益，類似於過去對蘋果和亞馬遜等公司的成功投資</p>

<p>Let's face it -- it's easy to say a particular investment is a lifetime holding when you know you can sell it if the company's circumstances change. A true &#34;forever&#34; trade is a relatively rare thing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>面對現實吧——當你知道如果公司的情況發生變化，你可以出售某項投資時，説這是一項終身持有的投資是很容易的。真正的 “永恆” 交易是相對罕見的。</p>
</div><p>There are some publicly traded companies, however, that are not only built to last, but built to thrive indefinitely. Their stocks are not only lifetime investments, but potentially life-changing. <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</strong>(TSM 1.50%) is one of these names. Here's why.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，有一些上市公司不僅是為長久而建，更是為無限繁榮而建。它們的股票不僅是終身投資，甚至可能改變生活。<strong>台積電</strong>（TSM 1.50%）就是其中之一。以下是原因。</p>
</div><h2>What TSMC is, and isn't</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>TSMC 是什麼，以及不是</h2>
</div><p>On the off chance you've never heard of it, just as the name suggests, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, better known as TSMC, makes computer chips. There's a good chance you're a regular user of one of its products, in fact. See, it doesn't make its own branded designs. TSMC is instead a contracted manufacturer of other chip companies' silicon. <strong>Apple</strong>, <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -0.77%), and <strong>Qualcomm</strong> are just some of its customers. Indeed, this company manufactures about two-thirds of the world's total semiconductors, and reportedly makes nine out of every 10 of the planet's most advanced high-performance chips.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你恰好從未聽説過，顧名思義，台積電（Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing），更廣為人知的是 TSMC，製造計算機芯片。事實上，你很可能是其產品的常規用户。因為它並不製造自己的品牌設計。TSMC 實際上是其他芯片公司的硅的合同製造商。<strong>蘋果</strong>、<strong>英偉達</strong>（Nvidia）（NVDA -0.77%）和 <strong>高通</strong> 只是其客户中的一部分。實際上，這家公司製造了全球約三分之二的半導體，並且據報道製造了全球每十個最先進的高性能芯片中的九個。</p>
</div><p>Almost needless to say, without TSMC, the world's microchip landscape would look considerably different.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>幾乎不需要説，沒有台積電，世界的微芯片格局將會大相徑庭。</p>
</div><p>Yes, this manufacturing concentration is something of a problem for the semiconductor industry, which <em>doesn't</em> want to be beholden to a single supplier/service provider -- a liability that came to a head during and because of the COVID-19 pandemic. When supply chains to and from Taiwan broke down, most technology companies were effectively dead in the water. Some of them have attempted to build their own chip foundries in the meantime. <strong>Intel</strong>(INTC -1.25%), for example, budgeted an initial investment of $28 billion to erect a brand-new production facility in Ohio, plus another $32 billion to build a chip plant in Arizona. Another 33 billion euros were earmarked for investment in a semiconductor R&amp;D facility in Europe back in 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>是的，這種製造集中度對半導體行業來説是一個問題，因為行業不希望依賴單一的供應商/服務提供商——這一責任在 COVID-19 大流行期間達到了頂峯。當往返台灣的供應鏈崩潰時，大多數科技公司實際上陷入了困境。在此期間，一些公司試圖建立自己的芯片代工廠。例如，<strong>英特爾</strong>（Intel）（INTC -1.25%）預算了 280 億美元的初始投資，以在俄亥俄州建立一座全新的生產設施，以及另外 320 億美元用於在亞利桑那州建造一座芯片工廠。2022 年，另有 330 億歐元被 earmarked 用於在歐洲投資半導體研發設施。</p>
</div><p>There's a reason, however, that much of this intended spending has since been scaled back, delayed, or outright canceled. That is, building new computer chipmaking infrastructure is as expensive as it is complicated, making it tough to penetrate the business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，有一個原因是，這些計劃中的支出大部分已經縮減、推遲或完全取消。也就是説，建立新的計算機芯片製造基礎設施既昂貴又複雜，使得進入這一行業變得困難。</p>
</div><p>This dynamic, of course, bodes well for TSMC's continued dominance of the business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種動態當然對 TSMC 繼續主導業務是個好兆頭。</p>
</div><h2>No serious slowdown for TSMC on the near <em>or</em> distant horizon</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>TSMC 在近期或遠期沒有嚴重放緩的跡象</h2>
</div><p>None of this is to suggest TSMC is impervious to the chip industry's usual slings and arrows. Case in point: The company's top line fell more than 4% in 2023 -- when the entire semiconductor business ran into a post-pandemic headwind -- dragging profits 18% lower year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這並不是説 TSMC 對芯片行業的常見挑戰無動於衷。舉個例子：該公司的收入在 2023 年下降了超過 4%——當整個半導體行業遭遇後疫情的逆風時——導致利潤同比下降了 18%。</p>
</div><p>Competition is still creeping in, too. For example, although Intel is dramatically scaling back its plans to become a major semiconductor foundry, credible rumors that TSMC customer <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> is mulling a production relationship with Intel have been circulating, while <strong>Microsoft</strong> is a confirmed Intel foundry customer. That's not a major revenue win, but it <em>is</em> a high-profile one.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>競爭也在逐漸滲入。例如，儘管英特爾正在大幅縮減其成為主要半導體代工廠的計劃，但關於 TSMC 客户 <strong>超微</strong>（Advanced Micro Devices）正在考慮與英特爾建立生產關係的可信傳聞正在流傳，而 <strong>微軟</strong> 則是確認的英特爾代工客户。這並不是一個重大的收入勝利，但確實是一個高調的勝利。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzU5MDUvdHJhY2tpbmctaW52ZXN0bWVudHMtd2VhbHRoLWZhbWlseS1wbGFubmluZy5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F835905%2Ftracking-investments-wealth-family-planning.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>Nevertheless, demand for new and better chips is not only still growing, but accelerating. Intel and other would-be manufacturers can't build foundries fast enough, forcing the industry to continue relying on TSMC, which has the production capacity the business needs right now. The company managed to make approximately 17 million 12-inch (or equivalent) wafers last year, for perspective, or $90 billion worth of silicon. That's up 34% year over year in an industry that the Semiconductor Industry Association says only grew by 19% in 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，對新型和更好芯片的需求不僅仍在增長，而且還在加速。英特爾和其他潛在製造商無法快速建立代工廠，迫使行業繼續依賴 TSMC，而後者擁有當前業務所需的生產能力。為了提供一個參考，該公司去年大約生產了 1700 萬片 12 英寸（或等效）晶圓，價值約 900 億美元。這在半導體行業中同比增長了 34%，而半導體行業協會表示，2024 年該行業僅增長了 19%。</p>
</div><p>Give credit to the rise of artificial intelligence, of course, which is creating massive demand for computing processors and related microchips.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當然，要歸功於人工智能的崛起，這正在為計算處理器和相關微芯片創造巨大的需求。</p>
</div><p>The thing is, this is just a taste of what to expect for the near and distant future now that AI is making it easy and advantageous to digitize, well, <em>everything</em>. Deloitte believes the global semiconductor market is poised to grow from just a little less than $700 billion this year to $1 trillion by 2030, en route to $2 trillion by 2040.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>問題是，這只是對近期和遠期未來的一個預覽，因為人工智能使得數字化一切變得簡單而有利。德勤認為，全球半導體市場預計將從今年不到 7000 億美元增長到 2030 年的 1 萬億美元，並在 2040 年達到 2 萬億美元。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzU5MDUvMTAwMTI1LXRzbS1yZXN1bHRzLnBuZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F835905%2F100125-tsm-results.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Data source: CNBC, MarketWatch, StockAnalysis, Simply Wall St. Chart by author. Revenue and net income are in New Taiwanese Dollars. Per-share earnings are in U.S. dollars, reflecting their relative, currency-adjusted levels to the ADR of TSMC.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源：CNBC，MarketWatch，StockAnalysis，Simply Wall St. 作者繪製的圖表。收入和淨收入以新台幣計。每股收益以美元計，反映其相對於 TSMC ADR 的相對貨幣調整水平。</p>
</div><p>TSMC will, of course, feature prominently in that growth. It has to.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當然，TSMC 將在這一增長中佔據重要地位。它必須如此。</p>
</div><h2>Be a &#34;smart person&#34; and buy this reasonably valued growth stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>成為 “聰明的人”，購買這隻合理估值的成長股</h2>
</div><p>So, yes -- buying TSMC stock today could set you up for life, even if it's not going to do so overnight. It's likely to be life-changing in the same way that Apple and <strong>Amazon</strong> were, dishing out market-beating gains for a long, long time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所以，是的——今天購買 TSMC 股票可能會讓你終身受益，即使這不會在一夜之間實現。它可能會像 <strong>蘋果</strong> 和 <strong>亞馬遜</strong> 一樣改變生活，長期提供超越市場的收益。</p>
</div><p>With all of that being said, perhaps the best argument for owning a long-term stake in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing isn't a quantitative one, but a qualitative, anecdotal one. In August, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang commented, &#34;I think TSMC is one of the greatest companies in the history of humanity, and anybody who wants to buy TSMC stock is a very smart person.&#34; Then he doubled down on that bullishness last month, exclaiming, &#34;You can't overstate the magic that is TSMC.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>説到這裏，也許擁有台積電長期股份的最佳理由不是定量的，而是定性的、軼事的。在八月份，英偉達首席執行官黃仁勳評論道：“我認為 TSMC 是人類歷史上最偉大的公司之一，任何想購買 TSMC 股票的人都是非常聰明的人。” 然後他在上個月再次重申了這一樂觀態度，聲稱：“你無法誇大 TSMC 的魔力。”</p>
</div><p>That's strong praise, and from an industry insider who would know.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這是強有力的讚美，來自一個行業內部人士，他會知道。</p>
</div><p>Just don't tarry if you're interested. Although TSMC shares recently reached yet another record high, they're still reasonably priced at less than 30 times this year's expected per-share earnings of $9.85. You're not going to find a much lower valuation from a growth company like this one, which is poised to grow at a solid double-digit pace for many, <em>many</em> more years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你感興趣，請不要拖延。儘管 TSMC 的股票最近又創下了新高，但其估值仍合理，低於今年預期每股收益 9.85 美元的 30 倍。你不會在這樣一家成長型公司中找到更低的估值，而這家公司預計將在未來許多年以穩健的兩位數速度增長。</p>
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Could Buying TSMC Stock Today Set You Up for Life?

- TSMC 是全球半導體制造的領導者，生產約三分之二的芯片。  
- 儘管面臨競爭和市場波動，需求仍在加速增長。  
- 投資 TSMC 股票被認為是長期獲利的機會。

今天購買台積電的股票能否讓你一生無憂？