<p>要點：</p>
<ul>
<li>納斯達克綜合指數的牛市持續進行，我們不需要任何複雜的技術指標來告訴我們這一點！</li>
<li>上週我們深入分析了銅，本週我們將研究其基礎金屬的同類鋁、鉛、鎳、錫和鋅。</li>
<li>它們是否表明投資者對全球經濟增長的信心正在增強？</li>
</ul>
<p>在今天的市場圖表觀察中，我們將涵蓋以下技術分析：</p>
<ul>
<li>納斯達克綜合指數</li>
<li>鋁 LME 官方現貨</li>
<li>鉛 LME 官方現貨</li>
<li>鎳 LME 官方現貨</li>
<li>錫 LME 官方現貨</li>
<li>鋅 LME 官方現貨</li>
</ul>
<p>納斯達克綜合指數</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/marketindex:9bc0cab8a094b-947f187713cfd31a5559fba25b3d5c8b-resized.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/marketindex:9bc0cab8a094b-947f187713cfd31a5559fba25b3d5c8b-resized.jpeg"/></p>
<p>納斯達克綜合指數圖表（</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/marketindex:9bc0cab8a094b-947f187713cfd31a5559fba25b3d5c8b-resized.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/marketindex:9bc0cab8a094b-947f187713cfd31a5559fba25b3d5c8b-resized.jpeg"/></p>
<p>完整圖像）</p>
<p>在昨天的更新中，我們提到週四和週五的兩根 “並不理想但無須擔憂” 的蠟燭。週一的蠟燭表明這一敍述是正確的。又一次創下歷史新高，剛好在 22991.7 的新歷史高點附近。</p>
<p>綜合指數的出現並非偶然。自四月低點以來，需求與供應之間存在着普遍的不平衡——也就是普遍的過剩需求。</p>
<p>週一的温和需求蠟燭並沒有帶來任何變化……或許有一點猶豫，伴隨着一小段向上的影線……但我在這裏是斤斤計較。</p>
<p>綜合指數的圖表仍然是需求方控制的表現：</p>
<ul>
<li>趨勢：
<ul>
<li>短期趨勢 = 上升，已確立，陡峭，作為動態需求區 = 交易者買入回調 = 需求方控制 ✅</li>
<li>長期趨勢 = 上升，已確立，陡峭，作為動態需求區 = 基金積累 = 需求方控制 ✅</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>價格走勢：上升的高點和上升的低點 = 買入回調 = 需求方控制 ✅</li>
<li>蠟燭：需求方蠟燭佔主導（即白色實體和/或向下的影線）= 買入回調，普遍的程序化買入訂單 = 需求方控制 ✅</li>
</ul>
<p>= FRP。（全面風險頭寸 = 我在美國股票投資中的個人可允許資本配置限額為 100%）。</p>
<p>關鍵水平：22058 是最近的需求點，如果需求方控制綜合指數的價格，價格不應低於此；若收盤低於短期上升趨勢帶（目前為 22160-22435），將會取消短期上升趨勢 = ⚠️</p>
<p>你可能會想，為什麼我的技術分析如此無聊——日復一日——都是同樣的事情……需求……呃……供應……呃……誰在控制……呃呃呃！！！</p>
<p>難道我不應該檢查一下 RSI 或 MACD，看看綜合指數是否 “超買”，或者布林帶，或者進行甘氏或艾略特波浪分析？難道在這些指標中沒有與綜合指數趨勢可持續性相關的關鍵信息嗎？🤔</p>
<p>答：沒有！需求與供應 = 價格是你需要知道的全部！💯😉</p>
<p>鋁 LME 官方現貨</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/marketindex:9bc0cab8a094b-ff96d81680cbf0354cca9e71a361a09a-resized.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/marketindex:9bc0cab8a094b-ff96d81680cbf0354cca9e71a361a09a-resized.jpeg"/></p>
<p>鋁 LME 官方現貨圖表（</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/marketindex:9bc0cab8a094b-ff96d81680cbf0354cca9e71a361a09a-resized.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/marketindex:9bc0cab8a094b-ff96d81680cbf0354cca9e71a361a09a-resized.jpeg"/></p>
<p>完整圖像）</p>
<p>上週我們分析了 LME 和 COMEX 銅的短期和長期上升趨勢的改善。</p>
<p>今天，我想檢查一下銅的基礎金屬同類鋁、鉛、鎳、錫和鋅的趨勢。</p>
<p>鋁的短期和長期上升趨勢可以説比銅的更為確立，但銅超過其同類的地方在於，銅已經突破了其 12 個月交易區間的頂部。鋁也不遠了，正逐漸接近 2737 的 3 月 12 日主要供應點。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/marketindex:9bc0cab8a094b-bdd24b5e2c4bf78a148f1227af8dcb99-resized.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/marketindex:9bc0cab8a094b-bdd24b5e2c4bf78a148f1227af8dcb99-resized.jpeg"/></p>
<p>鋁 LME 官方現貨周線圖</p>
<p>放大到周線圖，我們可以看到這個供應水平是多麼重要——在 2022 年 3 月 4 日 3851 的峯值之前幾乎沒有其他阻礙。鋁的多頭敢於夢想嗎？</p>
<p>夢想不是我的風格，但我可以看到這裏有一些非常強烈的需求方控制的跡象——而且這種需求方控制正在增長……</p>
<p>鉛 LME 官方現貨</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/marketindex:9bc0cab8a094b-5df2e6411ee540667dd69740ce880325-resized.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/marketindex:9bc0cab8a094b-5df2e6411ee540667dd69740ce880325-resized.jpeg"/></p>
<p>鉛 LME 官方現貨（點擊這裏查看完整圖像）</p>
<p>從這張圖表可以清楚地看出，基礎金屬並不是基礎金屬。當然，全球經濟增長（或缺乏增長）這一總體主題在助力（或阻礙）它們的集體需求，但每種金屬都有自己獨特的額外需求和供應因素。</p>
<p>從鉛的圖表來看，目前的需求供應環境明顯偏向於過剩供應，自 7 月以來長期趨勢首次轉為中性（與之前的下行趨勢相比）。</p>
<p>短期趨勢正在改善，剛剛轉為上升，然而，自 8 月中旬以來的價格走勢總體上是上升的高點和上升的低點。因此，短期內似乎有一些過剩需求逐漸滲入系統。</p>
<p>將長期和短期因素結合在一起，我們在這裏大致處於中性……即，最多是平衡，仍需大量工作來建立自信的短期和長期上升趨勢。</p>
<p>鎳 LME 官方現貨</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/marketindex:9bc0cab8a094b-6d5d40aee208fa33b26e3d6054045da4-resized.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/marketindex:9bc0cab8a094b-6d5d40aee208fa33b26e3d6054045da4-resized.jpeg"/></p>
<p>鎳 LME 官方現貨（點擊這裏查看完整圖像）</p>
<p>鎳在過去近兩年裏一直處於一個確立的長期下行趨勢中。但是，眯起眼睛並將頁面放大到大約 200%，你會看到短期內正在發展出微小的上升趨勢。</p>
<p>但是，稱其為 “逐漸趨向均衡” 之外的任何東西都是過於寬容的。鎳缺乏一個火花，它需要一個急劇且大幅的上漲來引發空頭回補、投機性買入和長期持倉的建立。你我之間説，我不確定鎳是否有這樣的上漲！</p>
<p>錫 LME 官方現貨</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/marketindex:9bc0cab8a094b-bbeb44c743ac5a3a9979172de18f2756-resized.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/marketindex:9bc0cab8a094b-bbeb44c743ac5a3a9979172de18f2756-resized.jpeg"/></p>
<p>錫 LME 官方現貨圖表（點擊這裏查看完整圖像）</p>
<p>這才像樣。短期和長期的上升趨勢，以及鎳所缺乏的 “急劇且大幅的上漲”。沒有什麼比資產價格上漲更能迅速推動資產價格上漲的了……而錫正迅速接近 4 月 2 日的主要供應點 38575。</p>
<p>其突破該上限的潛力與鋁相似，2022 年 3 月 4 日的主要供應點 47325 是下一個明顯的上行障礙（查看每週圖表，未顯示）。</p>
<p>錫的趨勢和價格走勢顯示出強勁且改善的需求方控制，但 38575 的重大考驗在等待着。密切關注那裏的價格走勢——淺幅回調和快速突破錶明供應方阻力較小——而急劇回調則表明需要更多的工作來探測 40k 的區域。</p>
<p>鋅 LME 官方現貨</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/marketindex:9bc0cab8a094b-e553befb3524efb900dfd15e7a2488fe-resized.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/marketindex:9bc0cab8a094b-e553befb3524efb900dfd15e7a2488fe-resized.jpeg"/></p>
<p>鋅 LME 官方現貨圖表（點擊這裏查看完整圖像）</p>
<p>最後但絕對不是最不重要的是，鋅也顯示出一個成熟、一致且增強的短期趨勢，支持以需求方為導向的價格走勢（上漲的高點和上漲的低點），以及一個正在發展的長期上升趨勢。</p>
<p>仍然有很多工作要做，以清除到 2024 年 10 月 24 日 3238 的潛在供應點。除此之外，每週圖表（未顯示）表明 3509 和 3678 可能是未來的供應壓力點。</p>
<p>鋅使得目前顯示出穩固或至少增長的需求方控制的六種主要基礎金屬中有四種，這在我看來是一個積極信號——它們越多，基礎宏觀經濟需求方驅動因素往往越好。</p>
<p>ChartWatch *LIVE* 網絡研討會</p>
<p>ChartWatch *LIVE* 網絡研討會迴歸，每週三午餐時間舉行 💪</p>
<p>通過真實案例研究學習技術分析和趨勢跟蹤，澳大利亞首屈一指的技術分析師 Carl Capolingua 分享他對觀眾請求的股票的獨特見解。詢問您投資組合中的公司或與交易和投資相關的任何問題，獲取 Carl 的專業視角。</p>
<p>名額有限，&gt;立即註冊！&lt;</p>

ZINC

DIVCON 股息前鋒 ETF - Reality Shares

<p>最新一期的 ChartWatch Markets 分析了基礎金屬的趨勢，包括鋁、銅、鉛、鎳、錫和鋅，背景是納斯達克綜合指數的看漲市場。報告強調鋁和銅的需求側控制強勁，鋁接近一個重要的供應點。鉛顯示出混合的供需環境，而鎳則持續處於長期下行趨勢。總體而言，分析表明投資者對全球經濟增長的信心增強，不同金屬的具體趨勢各有不同</p>

<p>Key points:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>要點：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>The Nasdaq Composite bull market keeps ticking on, and we don't need any fancy technical indicators to tell us that!</li>
<li>Last week we did a deep dive on copper, this week, we investigate its base metals stablemates aluminium, lead, nickel, tin, and zinc.</li>
<li>Do they signal that investors are growing more confident about global economic growth?</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>納斯達克綜合指數的牛市持續進行，我們不需要任何複雜的技術指標來告訴我們這一點！</li>
<li>上週我們深入分析了銅，本週我們將研究其基礎金屬的同類鋁、鉛、鎳、錫和鋅。</li>
<li>它們是否表明投資者對全球經濟增長的信心正在增強？</li>
</ul>
</div><p>In today's edition of ChartWatch Markets, we'll be covering the technicals for:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在今天的市場圖表觀察中，我們將涵蓋以下技術分析：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Nasdaq Composite</li>
<li>Aluminium LME Official Cash</li>
<li>Lead LME Official Cash</li>
<li>Nickel LME Official Cash</li>
<li>Tin LME Official Cash</li>
<li>Zinc LME Official Cash</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>納斯達克綜合指數</li>
<li>鋁 LME 官方現貨</li>
<li>鉛 LME 官方現貨</li>
<li>鎳 LME 官方現貨</li>
<li>錫 LME 官方現貨</li>
<li>鋅 LME 官方現貨</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Nasdaq Composite Index</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>納斯達克綜合指數</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/marketindex:9bc0cab8a094b-947f187713cfd31a5559fba25b3d5c8b-resized.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/marketindex:9bc0cab8a094b-947f187713cfd31a5559fba25b3d5c8b-resized.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Nasdaq Composite Index chart (</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>納斯達克綜合指數圖表（</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/marketindex:9bc0cab8a094b-947f187713cfd31a5559fba25b3d5c8b-resized.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/marketindex:9bc0cab8a094b-947f187713cfd31a5559fba25b3d5c8b-resized.jpeg"/></p>
<p>for full size image)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>完整圖像）</p>
</div><p>In yesterday’s update, we noted those two “not ideal-but nothing to worry about” candles on Thursday and Friday. Monday’s candle suggests that narrative is about right. Another closing all-time high, just off a new all-time high of 22991.7.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在昨天的更新中，我們提到週四和週五的兩根 “並不理想但無須擔憂” 的蠟燭。週一的蠟燭表明這一敍述是正確的。又一次創下歷史新高，剛好在 22991.7 的新歷史高點附近。</p>
</div><p>The Comp isn’t here by accident. It’s here because there has been a pervasive imbalance between demand and supply since the April low – pervasive excess demand, that is.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>綜合指數的出現並非偶然。自四月低點以來，需求與供應之間存在着普遍的不平衡——也就是普遍的過剩需求。</p>
</div><p>There has been zero change with the advent of Monday’s modest demand-side candle… a touch of indecision perhaps, with a small upward pointing shadow… but I'm splitting hairs here.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週一的温和需求蠟燭並沒有帶來任何變化……或許有一點猶豫，伴隨着一小段向上的影線……但我在這裏是斤斤計較。</p>
</div><p>The Comp’s chart remains a picture of demand-side control:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>綜合指數的圖表仍然是需求方控制的表現：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Trends:
<ul>
<li>ST trend = Up, well-established, steepening, acting as zone of dynamic demand = traders buy the dip = demand-side control ✅</li>
<li>LT trend = Up, well-established, steepening, acting as zone of dynamic demand = funds’ accumulating = demand-side control ✅</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Price action: Rising peaks &amp; rising troughs = buy the dip = demand-side control ✅</li>
<li>Candles: Predominance of demand-side candles (i.e. white bodied and or downward pointing shadows) = buy the dip, pervasive programmed buy orders = demand-side control ✅</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>趨勢：
<ul>
<li>短期趨勢 = 上升，已確立，陡峭，作為動態需求區 = 交易者買入回調 = 需求方控制 ✅</li>
<li>長期趨勢 = 上升，已確立，陡峭，作為動態需求區 = 基金積累 = 需求方控制 ✅</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>價格走勢：上升的高點和上升的低點 = 買入回調 = 需求方控制 ✅</li>
<li>蠟燭：需求方蠟燭佔主導（即白色實體和/或向下的影線）= 買入回調，普遍的程序化買入訂單 = 需求方控制 ✅</li>
</ul>
</div><p>= FRP. (Full Risk Position = My personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in US stocks is 100%).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>= FRP。（全面風險頭寸 = 我在美國股票投資中的個人可允許資本配置限額為 100%）。</p>
</div><p>Key levels: 22058 is the closest point of demand, the price should not close below here if the demand-side is in control of the Comp's price; a close below the short term uptrend ribbon (presently 22160-22435) will nullify the short term uptrend = ⚠️</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>關鍵水平：22058 是最近的需求點，如果需求方控制綜合指數的價格，價格不應低於此；若收盤低於短期上升趨勢帶（目前為 22160-22435），將會取消短期上升趨勢 = ⚠️</p>
</div><p>You might be wondering why my technical analysis so boring – day in day out – is the same thing over and again... demand... blah... supply... blah... who's in control... blah blah blah!!!</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你可能會想，為什麼我的技術分析如此無聊——日復一日——都是同樣的事情……需求……呃……供應……呃……誰在控制……呃呃呃！！！</p>
</div><p>Shouldn’t I be checking the RSI or MACD to see if the Comp is “overbought”, or the Bollinger Bands, or performing a Gann or Elliott Wave analysis? Surely there’s a critical piece of information relating to the sustainability of the Comp’s trends in one of those indicators? 🤔</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>難道我不應該檢查一下 RSI 或 MACD，看看綜合指數是否 “超買”，或者布林帶，或者進行甘氏或艾略特波浪分析？難道在這些指標中沒有與綜合指數趨勢可持續性相關的關鍵信息嗎？🤔</p>
</div><p>A: Nope, there isn't! D vs S = P is ALL you need to know! 💯😉</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>答：沒有！需求與供應 = 價格是你需要知道的全部！💯😉</p>
</div><p>Aluminium LME Official Cash</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鋁 LME 官方現貨</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/marketindex:9bc0cab8a094b-ff96d81680cbf0354cca9e71a361a09a-resized.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/marketindex:9bc0cab8a094b-ff96d81680cbf0354cca9e71a361a09a-resized.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Aluminium LME Official Cash chart (</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鋁 LME 官方現貨圖表（</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/marketindex:9bc0cab8a094b-ff96d81680cbf0354cca9e71a361a09a-resized.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/marketindex:9bc0cab8a094b-ff96d81680cbf0354cca9e71a361a09a-resized.jpeg"/></p>
<p>for full size image)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>完整圖像）</p>
</div><p>Last week we covered the improving short and long term uptrends in LME and COMEX copper.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上週我們分析了 LME 和 COMEX 銅的短期和長期上升趨勢的改善。</p>
</div><p>Today, I’d like to check up on the trends in copper’s base metals cousins, Aluminium, Lead, Nickel, Tin, and Zinc.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天，我想檢查一下銅的基礎金屬同類鋁、鉛、鎳、錫和鋅的趨勢。</p>
</div><p>Aluminium’s short and long term uptrends are arguably better established than copper’s, but where copper exceeds its stablemate, is in the fact that copper has broken through the top of its 12-month trading range. Aluminium isn’t far behind, nudging ever closer to the 12-Mar major point of supply at 2737.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鋁的短期和長期上升趨勢可以説比銅的更為確立，但銅超過其同類的地方在於，銅已經突破了其 12 個月交易區間的頂部。鋁也不遠了，正逐漸接近 2737 的 3 月 12 日主要供應點。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/marketindex:9bc0cab8a094b-bdd24b5e2c4bf78a148f1227af8dcb99-resized.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/marketindex:9bc0cab8a094b-bdd24b5e2c4bf78a148f1227af8dcb99-resized.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Aluminium LME Official Cash weekly chart</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鋁 LME 官方現貨周線圖</p>
</div><p>Zoom out to the weekly chart, and we can see just how important that level of supply is – with little else in the way until the 4-Mar 2022 spike-peak of 3851. Dare aluminium bulls dream?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>放大到周線圖，我們可以看到這個供應水平是多麼重要——在 2022 年 3 月 4 日 3851 的峯值之前幾乎沒有其他阻礙。鋁的多頭敢於夢想嗎？</p>
</div><p>Dreaming isn't my gig, but I can see some very strong indications of demand-side control here – and growing demand-side control at that…</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>夢想不是我的風格，但我可以看到這裏有一些非常強烈的需求方控制的跡象——而且這種需求方控制正在增長……</p>
</div><p>Lead LME Official Cash</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鉛 LME 官方現貨</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/marketindex:9bc0cab8a094b-5df2e6411ee540667dd69740ce880325-resized.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/marketindex:9bc0cab8a094b-5df2e6411ee540667dd69740ce880325-resized.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Lead LME Official Cash (click here for full size image)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鉛 LME 官方現貨（點擊這裏查看完整圖像）</p>
</div><p>It’s clear from this chart that base metals ain’t base metals. Certainly, there’s the overarching theme of global economic growth (or lack-thereof) assisting (or hindering) their collective demand, but each has its own unique set of additional specific demand and supply factors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從這張圖表可以清楚地看出，基礎金屬並不是基礎金屬。當然，全球經濟增長（或缺乏增長）這一總體主題在助力（或阻礙）它們的集體需求，但每種金屬都有自己獨特的額外需求和供應因素。</p>
</div><p>With the lead chart, it's clear that the demand-supply environment is presently skewed towards excess-supply with the long term trend blipping into neutral for the first time since July (versus a previous downtrend).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從鉛的圖表來看，目前的需求供應環境明顯偏向於過剩供應，自 7 月以來長期趨勢首次轉為中性（與之前的下行趨勢相比）。</p>
</div><p>The short term trend is improving and has just flipped to up, however, and the price action since mid-August is generally rising peaks and rising troughs. So, there appears to be some excess demand creeping into the system in the short term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>短期趨勢正在改善，剛剛轉為上升，然而，自 8 月中旬以來的價格走勢總體上是上升的高點和上升的低點。因此，短期內似乎有一些過剩需求逐漸滲入系統。</p>
</div><p>Putting long and short term factors together, we’re roughly neutral here… i.e., equilibrium at best with plenty of work to do to establish confident short and long term uptrends.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>將長期和短期因素結合在一起，我們在這裏大致處於中性……即，最多是平衡，仍需大量工作來建立自信的短期和長期上升趨勢。</p>
</div><p>Nickel LME Official Cash</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鎳 LME 官方現貨</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/marketindex:9bc0cab8a094b-6d5d40aee208fa33b26e3d6054045da4-resized.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/marketindex:9bc0cab8a094b-6d5d40aee208fa33b26e3d6054045da4-resized.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Nickel LME Official Cash (click here for full size image)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鎳 LME 官方現貨（點擊這裏查看完整圖像）</p>
</div><p>Nickel has been in a well-established long term downtrend for the better part of 2-years now. But, squint and zoom the page to roughly 200%, and you’ll see the tiniest of short term uptrends developing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鎳在過去近兩年裏一直處於一個確立的長期下行趨勢中。但是，眯起眼睛並將頁面放大到大約 200%，你會看到短期內正在發展出微小的上升趨勢。</p>
</div><p>But, to call this anything more than “moving gradually towards equilibrium” would be generous. Nickel is lacking a spark, it requires a sharp and large move up to instigate short covering, speculative buying, and long term position building. Between you and me… I’m not sure nickel has a move like that in it!</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但是，稱其為 “逐漸趨向均衡” 之外的任何東西都是過於寬容的。鎳缺乏一個火花，它需要一個急劇且大幅的上漲來引發空頭回補、投機性買入和長期持倉的建立。你我之間説，我不確定鎳是否有這樣的上漲！</p>
</div><p>Tin LME Official Cash</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>錫 LME 官方現貨</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/marketindex:9bc0cab8a094b-bbeb44c743ac5a3a9979172de18f2756-resized.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/marketindex:9bc0cab8a094b-bbeb44c743ac5a3a9979172de18f2756-resized.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Tin LME Official Cash chart (click here for full size image)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>錫 LME 官方現貨圖表（點擊這裏查看完整圖像）</p>
</div><p>That’s more like it. Short and long term uptrends, and the “sharp and large move up” that nickel is lacking. Nothing makes an asset’s price rise faster than an asset’s price rising… and tin is closing in fast on the 2-Apr major point of supply at 38575.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這才像樣。短期和長期的上升趨勢，以及鎳所缺乏的 “急劇且大幅的上漲”。沒有什麼比資產價格上漲更能迅速推動資產價格上漲的了……而錫正迅速接近 4 月 2 日的主要供應點 38575。</p>
</div><p>Its upside past that cap is similarly substantial as aluminium’s, with the 4-Mar 2022 major point of supply at 47325 the next obvious clear upside barrier (check weekly chart, not shown).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其突破該上限的潛力與鋁相似，2022 年 3 月 4 日的主要供應點 47325 是下一個明顯的上行障礙（查看每週圖表，未顯示）。</p>
</div><p>Tin’s trends and price action smack of strong and improving demand-side control, but the big test of 38575 awaits. Watch the price action there closely – a shallow pullback and a quick break indicates little supply-side resistance – versus a sharp pullback indicates more work to be done to probe into the 40k’s.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>錫的趨勢和價格走勢顯示出強勁且改善的需求方控制，但 38575 的重大考驗在等待着。密切關注那裏的價格走勢——淺幅回調和快速突破錶明供應方阻力較小——而急劇回調則表明需要更多的工作來探測 40k 的區域。</p>
</div><p>Zinc LME Official Cash</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鋅 LME 官方現貨</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/marketindex:9bc0cab8a094b-e553befb3524efb900dfd15e7a2488fe-resized.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/marketindex:9bc0cab8a094b-e553befb3524efb900dfd15e7a2488fe-resized.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Zinc LME Official Cash chart (click here for full size image)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鋅 LME 官方現貨圖表（點擊這裏查看完整圖像）</p>
</div><p>Last but certainly not least, zinc is also showing a well-established, consistent, and strengthening short term trend, supporting demand-side oriented price action (rising peaks and rising troughs), and a developing long term uptrend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最後但絕對不是最不重要的是，鋅也顯示出一個成熟、一致且增強的短期趨勢，支持以需求方為導向的價格走勢（上漲的高點和上漲的低點），以及一個正在發展的長期上升趨勢。</p>
</div><p>There’s still plenty of work to do to clear potential points of supply through to the 24-Oct 2024 peak of 3238. Beyond that, the weekly chart (not shown) suggests that 3509 and then 3678 could be future supply pressure points.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>仍然有很多工作要做，以清除到 2024 年 10 月 24 日 3238 的潛在供應點。除此之外，每週圖表（未顯示）表明 3509 和 3678 可能是未來的供應壓力點。</p>
</div><p>Zinc makes it 4 out of the 6 major base metals that are presently showing signs of solid-or-at-least-growing demand-side control, which in my experience is a positive – the more of them that line up, the better those underlying macroeconomic demand-side drivers tend to be.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鋅使得目前顯示出穩固或至少增長的需求方控制的六種主要基礎金屬中有四種，這在我看來是一個積極信號——它們越多，基礎宏觀經濟需求方驅動因素往往越好。</p>
</div><p>ChartWatch *LIVE* Webinar</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ChartWatch *LIVE* 網絡研討會</p>
</div><p>ChartWatch *LIVE* Webinars are back and they're coming to Wednesday lunchtimes WEEKLY 💪</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ChartWatch *LIVE* 網絡研討會迴歸，每週三午餐時間舉行 💪</p>
</div><p>Learn more about technical analysis and trend following through real case studies on ASX stocks. Australia's premier technical analyst, Carl Capolingua, shares his unique insights on stocks as requested by viewers. Ask about a company in your portfolio or anything related to trading and investing and get Carl's seasoned specialist perspective.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通過真實案例研究學習技術分析和趨勢跟蹤，澳大利亞首屈一指的技術分析師 Carl Capolingua 分享他對觀眾請求的股票的獨特見解。詢問您投資組合中的公司或與交易和投資相關的任何問題，獲取 Carl 的專業視角。</p>
</div><p>Places are limited so &gt;REGISTER NOW!&lt;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>名額有限，&gt;立即註冊！&lt;</p>
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ChartWatch 市場：鋁、銅、鎳、錫和鋅，基礎金屬市場的最新動態