<p><strong>英偉達</strong>(NVDA 1.68%) 的命運因對人工智能計算的需求激增而上升。其圖形處理單元（GPU）在人工智能訓練和推理方面表現出色，導致其芯片價格飆升，因為大型科技公司以英偉達能夠生產的速度迅速購買供應。</p>
<p>根據估計，得益於其技術領先，英偉達在雲計算平台上租賃的所有人工智能芯片中佔據約 80% 的市場份額。這可能僅受限於其向最大客户提供足夠芯片的能力。</p>
<p>但其中一位主要客户剛剛簽署了一項協議，這可能表明其主導市場份額受到威脅。如果英偉達的其他主要客户也效仿，這可能會成為減緩英偉達股票上漲的理由。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzY5OTkvbnZpZGlhLWhlYWRxdWFydGVycy1vdXRzaWRlLXdpdGgtYmxhY2stbnZpZGlhLXNpZ24td2l0aC1udmlkaWEtbG9nby5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="420" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzY5OTkvbnZpZGlhLWhlYWRxdWFydGVycy1vdXRzaWRlLXdpdGgtYmxhY2stbnZpZGlhLXNpZ24td2l0aC1udmlkaWEtbG9nby5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：英偉達。</p>
<h2>英偉達在少數大型科技公司上高度依賴</h2>
<p>儘管英偉達在過去幾年中展現了極為可觀的收入增長，但這一銷售增長僅源於少數客户。事實上，其客户集中度正在增加。上個季度，僅有兩位客户就佔其總銷售額的 39%。其前六大客户佔 85%。相比之下，去年同期前兩大客户佔 25%，前六大客户佔不到 66%。</p>
<p>這些客户很可能是 <strong>微軟</strong>、<strong>亞馬遜</strong>、<strong>谷歌母公司</strong>、<strong>Meta Platforms</strong>、OpenAI 和 <strong>甲骨文</strong>，不一定按此順序。</p>
<p>值得指出的是，並非所有這些客户都是英偉達芯片的最終用户。微軟、亞馬遜、谷歌母公司和甲骨文都在構建公共雲平台，將其計算能力租賃給第三方企業。因此，客户基礎相對多樣化。儘管如此，甲骨文的雲建設與 OpenAI 服務的需求日益緊密相關，而微軟與這一生成式人工智能領導者的關係也早已密切。</p>
<p>但 OpenAI 正在表明，它可能不會在未來過於依賴英偉達。儘管與英偉達簽署了一項價值高達 1000 億美元的資本投資協議以購買英偉達 GPU，OpenAI 剛剛與競爭對手 <strong>超微</strong>(AMD -1.25%) 簽署了一項重大協議。該合同賦予 OpenAI 在滿足某些購買要求（以及其他要求）後以每股 0.01 美元的價格購買 AMD 股票的權利。</p>
<p>OpenAI 計劃在多年的時間內部署 6 吉瓦的 AMD GPU。每購買 1 吉瓦的 AMD 芯片，OpenAI 就會獲得一批購買 AMD 股票的權利。實際上，AMD 正在給 OpenAI 的芯片提供折扣，同時進一步鞏固其在人工智能生態系統中的地位。作為參考，英偉達與 OpenAI 的協議將在 OpenAI 購買 10 吉瓦 GPU 時完全生效。因此，英偉達仍然有能力為 OpenAI 提供大部分計算能力，但其主導份額正在下降。</p>
<h2>這可能只是新趨勢的開始</h2>
<p>OpenAI 與 AMD 的協議可能是這家競爭對手 GPU 製造商眾多協議中的一個。該協議依賴於 AMD 即將推出的 MI450 系列 GPU，預計將在英偉達的 Rubin 架構推出時發佈。AMD 對 MI450 的性能充滿信心，認為其在訓練和推理方面將超越英偉達，這一説法頗具挑戰性。至少，分析師預計其性能將具有競爭力，這應該足以從英偉達那裏獲得顯著的市場份額。</p>
<p>超大規模雲服務商需要 AMD 作為對抗英偉達的平衡力量，後者目前擁有巨大的定價權。如果 MI450 如管理層所聲稱的那樣強大，這可能意味着不僅 OpenAI，英偉達的其他主要客户也將發生巨大的支出轉變。AMD 正在構建機架級系統，應該能讓客户輕鬆切換。</p>
<p>此外，英偉達的客户也在開發定製硅解決方案方面取得進展。微軟計劃對其下一代 Maia300 芯片進行重大投資，計劃在夏季重新設計，以利用更先進的技術。Meta 同樣在努力擴大其定製 MTIA 芯片在生成式人工智能用例中的應用。而 OpenAI 則計劃開發定製硅解決方案，正與 <strong>博通</strong> 合作， reportedly 計劃在定製 AI 加速器設計上投入 100 億美元。</p>
<p>雖然投資者不應期待英偉達的最大客户完全拋棄它，但逐漸減少對英偉達的依賴的趨勢正在加速。OpenAI 與 AMD 的協議可能只是一個開始。考慮到股票的前瞻市盈率超過 40，鑑於客户逐漸遠離這家 GPU 巨頭，股票看起來相對昂貴。</p>

<p>英偉達在人工智能芯片市場的主導地位受到威脅，因為 OpenAI 與 AMD 簽署了一項重要協議，允許購買 AMD 的 GPU。這項協議包括對 AMD 股票的認購權，表明對英偉達的依賴可能會發生轉變。目前，英偉達的主要客户佔其銷售額的很大一部分，但隨着 AMD 等競爭對手的崛起，英偉達的市場份額可能會下降。在這些變化中，英偉達的前瞻市盈率較高，其股票可能被高估</p>

<p><strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 1.68%) has seen its fortunes rise on the back of surging demand for artificial intelligence compute. Its graphics processing units (GPUs) stand out as best in class when it comes to AI training and inference, which has resulted in soaring prices for its chips as big tech buys up supply as fast as Nvidia can make them.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>英偉達</strong>(NVDA 1.68%) 的命運因對人工智能計算的需求激增而上升。其圖形處理單元（GPU）在人工智能訓練和推理方面表現出色，導致其芯片價格飆升，因為大型科技公司以英偉達能夠生產的速度迅速購買供應。</p>
</div><p>Thanks to its technology lead, Nvidia commands a market share of around 80% of all AI chips for rent on cloud computing platforms, according to estimates. And that might only be limited by its ability to supply enough chips to its biggest customers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據估計，得益於其技術領先，英偉達在雲計算平台上租賃的所有人工智能芯片中佔據約 80% 的市場份額。這可能僅受限於其向最大客户提供足夠芯片的能力。</p>
</div><p>But one of those major customers just signed a deal that could signal that dominant market share is under threat. And if Nvidia's other major customers follow suit, it could be reason to pump the brakes on Nvidia's stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但其中一位主要客户剛剛簽署了一項協議，這可能表明其主導市場份額受到威脅。如果英偉達的其他主要客户也效仿，這可能會成為減緩英偉達股票上漲的理由。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzY5OTkvbnZpZGlhLWhlYWRxdWFydGVycy1vdXRzaWRlLXdpdGgtYmxhY2stbnZpZGlhLXNpZ24td2l0aC1udmlkaWEtbG9nby5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F836999%2Fnvidia-headquarters-outside-with-black-nvidia-sign-with-nvidia-logo.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：英偉達。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia is heavily reliant on just a handful of big tech names</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英偉達在少數大型科技公司上高度依賴</h2>
</div><p>While Nvidia has exhibited extremely impressive revenue growth over the last few years, that sales growth stems from just a handful of customers. In fact, its customer concentration is increasing. Last quarter, just two customers accounted for 39% of its total sales. Its top six customers accounted for 85%. That's compared to 25% from its top two customers and less than 66% from its top six customers in the year-ago period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管英偉達在過去幾年中展現了極為可觀的收入增長，但這一銷售增長僅源於少數客户。事實上，其客户集中度正在增加。上個季度，僅有兩位客户就佔其總銷售額的 39%。其前六大客户佔 85%。相比之下，去年同期前兩大客户佔 25%，前六大客户佔不到 66%。</p>
</div><p>Those customers are very likely <strong>Microsoft</strong>, <strong>Amazon</strong>, <strong>Alphabet</strong>, <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>, OpenAI, and <strong>Oracle</strong>, not necessarily in that order.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些客户很可能是 <strong>微軟</strong>、<strong>亞馬遜</strong>、<strong>谷歌母公司</strong>、<strong>Meta Platforms</strong>、OpenAI 和 <strong>甲骨文</strong>，不一定按此順序。</p>
</div><p>It's worth pointing out that not all of those customers are the end users for Nvidia's chips. Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Oracle are all building out public cloud platforms, renting out their compute capacity to third-party businesses. As a result, the customer base is a bit more diverse. That said, Oracle's cloud buildout is increasingly tied to demand of OpenAI services, while Microsoft has long been intertwined with the generative AI leader.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得指出的是，並非所有這些客户都是英偉達芯片的最終用户。微軟、亞馬遜、谷歌母公司和甲骨文都在構建公共雲平台，將其計算能力租賃給第三方企業。因此，客户基礎相對多樣化。儘管如此，甲骨文的雲建設與 OpenAI 服務的需求日益緊密相關，而微軟與這一生成式人工智能領導者的關係也早已密切。</p>
</div><p>But OpenAI is signaling it might not rely so much on Nvidia going forward. Despite signing a big deal to buy Nvidia GPUs in exchange for up to $100 billion in capital investment from the GPU leader, OpenAI just signed a huge deal with rival GPU maker <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong>(AMD -1.25%). The contract gives OpenAI warrants to buy shares of AMD at $0.01 per share upon meeting certain purchase requirements of AMD chips (among other requirements).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但 OpenAI 正在表明，它可能不會在未來過於依賴英偉達。儘管與英偉達簽署了一項價值高達 1000 億美元的資本投資協議以購買英偉達 GPU，OpenAI 剛剛與競爭對手 <strong>超微</strong>(AMD -1.25%) 簽署了一項重大協議。該合同賦予 OpenAI 在滿足某些購買要求（以及其他要求）後以每股 0.01 美元的價格購買 AMD 股票的權利。</p>
</div><p>OpenAI plans to deploy 6 gigawatts of AMD GPUs over a multiyear period. It receives a tranche of warrants to buy AMD stock for each gigawatt it buys. In effect, AMD is giving OpenAI a discount on its chips while further entrenching itself in the AI ecosystem. For reference, Nvidia's deal with AI will fully vest if OpenAI buys 10 gigawatts of GPUs. So Nvidia's still in a position to supply the majority of OpenAI's compute, but its dominant share is slipping.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>OpenAI 計劃在多年的時間內部署 6 吉瓦的 AMD GPU。每購買 1 吉瓦的 AMD 芯片，OpenAI 就會獲得一批購買 AMD 股票的權利。實際上，AMD 正在給 OpenAI 的芯片提供折扣，同時進一步鞏固其在人工智能生態系統中的地位。作為參考，英偉達與 OpenAI 的協議將在 OpenAI 購買 10 吉瓦 GPU 時完全生效。因此，英偉達仍然有能力為 OpenAI 提供大部分計算能力，但其主導份額正在下降。</p>
</div><h2>This could be just the start of a new trend</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>這可能只是新趨勢的開始</h2>
</div><p>OpenAI's deal with AMD could be one of many for the rival GPU maker. The deal hinges on AMD's forthcoming MI450 line of GPUs, which should come out around the same time as Nvidia's Rubin architecture. AMD is confident that the MI450 will outperform Nvidia in both training and inference, which is a bold claim. At the very least, analysts expect its performance to be competitive, which should be good enough to garner significant market share gains from Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>OpenAI 與 AMD 的協議可能是這家競爭對手 GPU 製造商眾多協議中的一個。該協議依賴於 AMD 即將推出的 MI450 系列 GPU，預計將在英偉達的 Rubin 架構推出時發佈。AMD 對 MI450 的性能充滿信心，認為其在訓練和推理方面將超越英偉達，這一説法頗具挑戰性。至少，分析師預計其性能將具有競爭力，這應該足以從英偉達那裏獲得顯著的市場份額。</p>
</div><p>Hyperscalers need AMD as a counterbalance to Nvidia, which currently holds tremendous pricing power. If the MI450 is as powerful as management claims, it could mean a huge shift in spending not just from OpenAI, but from Nvidia's other major customers as well. AMD is building rack-level systems that should make it easy for customers to make the switch.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>超大規模雲服務商需要 AMD 作為對抗英偉達的平衡力量，後者目前擁有巨大的定價權。如果 MI450 如管理層所聲稱的那樣強大，這可能意味着不僅 OpenAI，英偉達的其他主要客户也將發生巨大的支出轉變。AMD 正在構建機架級系統，應該能讓客户輕鬆切換。</p>
</div><p>On top of that, Nvidia's customers are also making progress in developing custom silicon solutions. Microsoft is planning to make a significant investment in its next generation Maia300 chip, redesigning it this summer to take advantage of more advanced technology. Meta, likewise, is working to expand the use cases for its custom MTIA chips to generative AI use cases. And OpenAI is planning to develop a custom silicon solution. It's partnering with <strong>Broadcom</strong>, reportedly planning to spend $10 billion on a custom AI accelerator design.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，英偉達的客户也在開發定製硅解決方案方面取得進展。微軟計劃對其下一代 Maia300 芯片進行重大投資，計劃在夏季重新設計，以利用更先進的技術。Meta 同樣在努力擴大其定製 MTIA 芯片在生成式人工智能用例中的應用。而 OpenAI 則計劃開發定製硅解決方案，正與 <strong>博通</strong> 合作， reportedly 計劃在定製 AI 加速器設計上投入 100 億美元。</p>
</div><p>While investors shouldn't expect any of Nvidia's biggest customers to ditch it entirely, the push to move away from relying on Nvidia is gaining momentum. OpenAI's deal with AMD is likely just the start. With the stock trading at a forward P/E above 40, shares look expensive given the current potential to see a slowdown in revenue growth as customers move away from the GPU giant.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然投資者不應期待英偉達的最大客户完全拋棄它，但逐漸減少對英偉達的依賴的趨勢正在加速。OpenAI 與 AMD 的協議可能只是一個開始。考慮到股票的前瞻市盈率超過 40，鑑於客户逐漸遠離這家 GPU 巨頭，股票看起來相對昂貴。</p>
</div>

One of Nvidia's Biggest Customers Just Struck a Massive Deal That Should Alarm Shareholders

- Nvidia 依賴少數大客户，前兩大客户佔其銷售的 39%。  
- OpenAI 與 AMD 簽署協議，可能威脅 Nvidia 的市場份額。  
- 投資者需關注 Nvidia 收入增長放緩的風險。  

Motley Fool

英偉達

GraniteShares 2x Long AMD Daily ETF

2 倍做多英偉達 ETF - GraniteShares

英偉達的一個重要客户剛剛達成了一項重大交易，這可能會引起股東的擔憂