<p><strong>阿斯麥</strong>(ASML -4.47%) 是全球領先的光刻系統生產商，這些系統用於將電路圖案光刻到硅晶圓上。世界上大多數領先的芯片製造商使用其深紫外（DUV）光刻系統來製造較舊和較大的芯片。</p>
<p>這家荷蘭科技巨頭也是極紫外（EUV）光刻系統的唯一生產商，這些系統是製造世界上最小和最密集芯片所必需的。全球所有領先的代工廠——包括 <strong>台積電</strong>(NYSE: TSM)、三星和 <strong>英特爾</strong>(NASDAQ: INTC)——都使用阿斯麥的 EUV 系統來生產其最先進的芯片。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzc0MDMvdHdvLXNpbGljb24td2FmZXJzLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzc0MDMvdHdvLXNpbGljb24td2FmZXJzLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>阿斯麥對這一關鍵技術的壟斷使其成為半導體市場的關鍵。市場對人工智能（AI）導向芯片的樂觀情緒推動了其今年近 40% 的漲幅——但在 10 月 15 日的下一個財報發佈之前，是否值得購買？</p>
<h2>為什麼多頭重新湧向阿斯麥？</h2>
<p>在 2023 年，阿斯麥的淨銷售額激增 30%，因為它發運了更多的 DUV 和 EUV 系統，服務收入上升，更多的芯片製造商加大了對 AI 導向芯片的生產。它還逐步推出了最新的 “高 NA” EUV 系統，這些系統用於生產比其當前一代 “低 NA” EUV 系統更小、更密集的芯片。</p>
<p>但在 2024 年，其淨銷售額僅增長 3%，毛利率持平，每股收益（EPS）下降 3%。這種放緩是由於與 AI 市場初期增長的艱難比較、非 AI 芯片需求疲軟以及對其向中國銷售高端 DUV 系統的限制加緊（在中國，它已經被禁止銷售 EUV 系統）。現有客户在消化現有庫存時也訂購了更少的新系統。</p>
<p>然而，這種放緩大部分發生在 2024 年上半年。在過去四個季度中，其淨銷售額和 EPS 以兩位數增長，毛利率再次擴大。這一復甦主要受到 DRAM 內存芯片市場的 AI 順風的推動。</p>
<p>| 指標 | 2024 年第二季度 | 2024 年第三季度 | 2024 年第四季度 | 2025 年第一季度 | 2025 年第二季度 |
| <strong>淨銷售增長（同比）</strong> | (9.5%) | 11.9% | 28% | 46.4% | 23.2% |
| <strong>毛利率</strong> | 51.5% | 50.8% | 51.7% | 54% | 53.7% |
| <strong>每股收益增長（同比）</strong> | (18.7%) | 9.8% | 31.5% | 92.9% | 47.1% |</p>
<p>數據來源：阿斯麥。以歐元計。同比 = 年同比。</p>
<p>阿斯麥在應對特朗普政府不可預測的關税、更加嚴格的出口限制以及推出高 NA EUV 系統的更高成本的同時實現了這一復甦。全年，它預計淨銷售額將增長 15%，毛利率將從 51.3% 上升至約 52%。這一樂觀前景，加上對更多 AI 相關芯片的需求加速，吸引了更多投資者重新關注阿斯麥，作為半導體市場的平衡投資。</p>
<p>分析師預計阿斯麥的收入和每股收益（EPS）今年將分別增長 14% 和 25%。從 2024 年到 2027 年，他們預計其收入和 EPS 將以 10% 和 16% 的年複合增長率（CAGR）增長。</p>
<h2>阿斯麥能否保持這種勢頭？</h2>
<p>阿斯麥的未來看起來光明，但一些問題可能會限制其短期收益。首先，其股票在明年的收益預期為 34 倍，並不便宜。多頭將爭辯説其在光刻市場的主導地位證明了其更高的估值，但空頭則聲稱過多的 AI 炒作已經反映在其股價中。因此，任何短期的波動可能會嚇跑多頭並壓低其股價。</p>
<p>其次，阿斯麥面臨許多短期挑戰。中國政府剛剛收緊了對 <strong>英偉達</strong>(NASDAQ: NVDA) AI 芯片的進口控制，並對用於製造半導體的稀土元素髮布了新的出口限制。美國參議院也通過了對英偉達和 <strong>AMD</strong>(NASDAQ: AMD) AI 芯片銷售到中國的新出口限制，而特朗普總統剛剛威脅中國將實施更高的關税。</p>
<p>所有這些壓力可能會抑制全球半導體市場的增長，並迫使阿斯麥收緊其短期銷售預測。同時，阿斯麥仍需增加支出，以提高其高 NA EUV 系統的生產。如果它警告銷售放緩和成本上升，其股價將會下跌。</p>
<h2>在 10 月 15 日之前，你應該購買阿斯麥的股票嗎？</h2>
<p>我持有阿斯麥的股票超過四年，但在其第三季度財報發佈之前，我不會急於再購買更多股票。相反，可能更明智的是看看它是否在該報告中解決了短期挑戰並修訂了指引，然後再為其股票支付溢價估值。</p>

阿斯麥

<p>ASML 是一家領先的光刻系統生產商，今年股價上漲近 40%，主要受到對人工智能導向芯片需求的推動。儘管預計全年淨銷售額將增長 15%，但出口管制收緊和高估值（明年收益的 34 倍）等挑戰可能限制短期內的漲幅。分析師預計今年收入和每股收益（EPS）分別增長 14% 和 25%，並預計 2024 年至 2027 年的年均增長率（CAGR）為 10% 和 16%。投資者在 10 月 15 日的財報發佈前保持謹慎，權衡潛在風險與 ASML 的市場主導地位</p>

<p><strong>ASML</strong>(ASML -4.47%) is the world's leading producer of lithography systems, which are used to optically etch circuit patterns onto silicon wafers. Most of the world's leading chipmakers use its deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography systems to manufacture their older and larger chips.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>阿斯麥</strong>(ASML -4.47%) 是全球領先的光刻系統生產商，這些系統用於將電路圖案光刻到硅晶圓上。世界上大多數領先的芯片製造商使用其深紫外（DUV）光刻系統來製造較舊和較大的芯片。</p>
</div><p>The Dutch tech giant is also the only producer of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems, which are required to manufacture the world's smallest and densest chips. All of the world's leading foundries -- including <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor</strong>(NYSE: TSM), Samsung, and <strong>Intel</strong>(NASDAQ: INTC) -- use ASML's EUV systems to produce their most advanced chips.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這家荷蘭科技巨頭也是極紫外（EUV）光刻系統的唯一生產商，這些系統是製造世界上最小和最密集芯片所必需的。全球所有領先的代工廠——包括 <strong>台積電</strong>(NYSE: TSM)、三星和 <strong>英特爾</strong>(NASDAQ: INTC)——都使用阿斯麥的 EUV 系統來生產其最先進的芯片。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzc0MDMvdHdvLXNpbGljb24td2FmZXJzLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F837403%2Ftwo-silicon-wafers.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>ASML's monopolization of that crucial technology makes it a linchpin of the semiconductor market. The market's bullish enthusiasm for artificial intelligence (AI)-oriented chips fueled its rally of nearly 40% this year -- but is it worth buying before its next earnings report on Oct. 15?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿斯麥對這一關鍵技術的壟斷使其成為半導體市場的關鍵。市場對人工智能（AI）導向芯片的樂觀情緒推動了其今年近 40% 的漲幅——但在 10 月 15 日的下一個財報發佈之前，是否值得購買？</p>
</div><h2>Why did the bulls rush back to ASML?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>為什麼多頭重新湧向阿斯麥？</h2>
</div><p>In 2023, ASML's net sales surged 30% as it shipped more DUV and EUV systems, its service revenues rose, and more chipmakers ramped up their production of AI-oriented chips. It also gradually rolled out its latest &#34;high-NA&#34; EUV systems, which are used to produce even smaller and denser chips than its current generation of &#34;low-NA&#34; EUV systems.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2023 年，阿斯麥的淨銷售額激增 30%，因為它發運了更多的 DUV 和 EUV 系統，服務收入上升，更多的芯片製造商加大了對 AI 導向芯片的生產。它還逐步推出了最新的 “高 NA” EUV 系統，這些系統用於生產比其當前一代 “低 NA” EUV 系統更小、更密集的芯片。</p>
</div><p>But in 2024, its net sales only rose 3%, its gross margin flatlined, and its earnings per share (EPS) fell 3%. That slowdown was caused by tough comparisons to the AI market's initial growth spurt, soft demand for non-AI chips, and tighter restrictions on its sales of higher-end DUV systems to China (where it's already barred from selling EUV systems). Its existing customers also ordered fewer new systems as they worked through their existing inventories.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在 2024 年，其淨銷售額僅增長 3%，毛利率持平，每股收益（EPS）下降 3%。這種放緩是由於與 AI 市場初期增長的艱難比較、非 AI 芯片需求疲軟以及對其向中國銷售高端 DUV 系統的限制加緊（在中國，它已經被禁止銷售 EUV 系統）。現有客户在消化現有庫存時也訂購了更少的新系統。</p>
</div><p>However, most of that slowdown occurred in the first half of 2024. Over the past four quarters, its net sales and EPS increased by the double digits as its gross margins expanded again. That recovery was largely driven by AI tailwinds for the DRAM memory chip market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，這種放緩大部分發生在 2024 年上半年。在過去四個季度中，其淨銷售額和 EPS 以兩位數增長，毛利率再次擴大。這一復甦主要受到 DRAM 內存芯片市場的 AI 順風的推動。</p>
</div><p>| Metric | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 |
| <strong>Net Sales Growth (YOY)</strong> | (9.5%) | 11.9% | 28% | 46.4% | 23.2% |
| <strong>Gross Margin</strong> | 51.5% | 50.8% | 51.7% | 54% | 53.7% |
| <strong>EPS Growth (YOY)</strong> | (18.7%) | 9.8% | 31.5% | 92.9% | 47.1% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>| 指標 | 2024 年第二季度 | 2024 年第三季度 | 2024 年第四季度 | 2025 年第一季度 | 2025 年第二季度 |
| <strong>淨銷售增長（同比）</strong> | (9.5%) | 11.9% | 28% | 46.4% | 23.2% |
| <strong>毛利率</strong> | 51.5% | 50.8% | 51.7% | 54% | 53.7% |
| <strong>每股收益增長（同比）</strong> | (18.7%) | 9.8% | 31.5% | 92.9% | 47.1% |</p>
</div><p>Data source: ASML. In euros. YOY = Year-over-year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源：阿斯麥。以歐元計。同比 = 年同比。</p>
</div><p>ASML achieved that recovery even as it grappled with the Trump administration's unpredictable tariffs, tighter export curbs, and the higher costs of rolling out its high-NA EUV systems. For the full year, it expects its net sales to rise 15% as its gross margin rises from 51.3% to about 52%. That bright outlook, along with the accelerating demand for more AI-related chips, drove more investors back toward ASML as a balanced play on the semiconductor market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿斯麥在應對特朗普政府不可預測的關税、更加嚴格的出口限制以及推出高 NA EUV 系統的更高成本的同時實現了這一復甦。全年，它預計淨銷售額將增長 15%，毛利率將從 51.3% 上升至約 52%。這一樂觀前景，加上對更多 AI 相關芯片的需求加速，吸引了更多投資者重新關注阿斯麥，作為半導體市場的平衡投資。</p>
</div><p>Analysts expect ASML's revenue and earnings per share (EPS) to rise 14% and 25%, respectively, this year. From 2024 to 2027, they expect its revenue and EPS to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10% and 16%, respectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析師預計阿斯麥的收入和每股收益（EPS）今年將分別增長 14% 和 25%。從 2024 年到 2027 年，他們預計其收入和 EPS 將以 10% 和 16% 的年複合增長率（CAGR）增長。</p>
</div><h2>Can ASML maintain that momentum?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>阿斯麥能否保持這種勢頭？</h2>
</div><p>ASML's future looks bright, but a few issues could cap its near-term gains. First, its stock isn't cheap at 34 times next year's earnings. The bulls will argue that its dominance of the lithography market justifies its higher valuation, but the bears will claim that too much AI hype has been baked into its stock price. Therefore, any near-term hiccups could spook the bulls and sink its stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿斯麥的未來看起來光明，但一些問題可能會限制其短期收益。首先，其股票在明年的收益預期為 34 倍，並不便宜。多頭將爭辯説其在光刻市場的主導地位證明了其更高的估值，但空頭則聲稱過多的 AI 炒作已經反映在其股價中。因此，任何短期的波動可能會嚇跑多頭並壓低其股價。</p>
</div><p>Second, ASML faces a lot of those near-term challenges. The Chinese government just tightened its import controls on <strong>Nvidia</strong>'s (NASDAQ: NVDA) AI chips and issued new export restrictions on its rare earth elements used to manufacture semiconductors. The U.S. Senate also passed new export limits on Nvidia's and <strong>AMD</strong>'s (NASDAQ: AMD) AI chip sales to China, while President Donald Trump just threatened China with even higher tariffs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，阿斯麥面臨許多短期挑戰。中國政府剛剛收緊了對 <strong>英偉達</strong>(NASDAQ: NVDA) AI 芯片的進口控制，並對用於製造半導體的稀土元素髮布了新的出口限制。美國參議院也通過了對英偉達和 <strong>AMD</strong>(NASDAQ: AMD) AI 芯片銷售到中國的新出口限制，而特朗普總統剛剛威脅中國將實施更高的關税。</p>
</div><p>All that pressure could throttle the growth of the global semiconductor market and force ASML to rein in its near-term sales forecasts. At the same time, ASML still needs to increase its spending to ramp up its production of its high-NA EUV systems. If it warns of slowing sales and rising costs, its stock will stumble.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所有這些壓力可能會抑制全球半導體市場的增長，並迫使阿斯麥收緊其短期銷售預測。同時，阿斯麥仍需增加支出，以提高其高 NA EUV 系統的生產。如果它警告銷售放緩和成本上升，其股價將會下跌。</p>
</div><h2>Should you buy ASML's stock before Oct. 15?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>在 10 月 15 日之前，你應該購買阿斯麥的股票嗎？</h2>
</div><p>I've owned ASML's stock for more than four years, but I wouldn't rush to accumulate more shares ahead of its third-quarter earnings report. Instead, it might be smarter to see if it addresses its near-term challenges and revises its guidance during that report before paying a premium valuation for its stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我持有阿斯麥的股票超過四年，但在其第三季度財報發佈之前，我不會急於再購買更多股票。相反，可能更明智的是看看它是否在該報告中解決了短期挑戰並修訂了指引，然後再為其股票支付溢價估值。</p>
</div>

在 10 月 15 日之前，ASML 的股票是否值得購買？