<p><strong>比特幣</strong>(BTC 0.54%) 今年可能上漲了 30%，但黃金上漲了 50%。這顯然不應該發生。在大多數年份，比特幣的表現都遠超黃金。</p>
<p>那麼這裏發生了什麼？是時候加倍押注比特幣，期待在今年晚些時候獲得追趕收益嗎？還是該逃離，寄希望於黃金實物？讓我們仔細看看。</p>
<h2>歷史表現</h2>
<p>如果你放遠目光，從長期角度來看，選擇贏家很簡單。根據 <strong>WisdomTree</strong> 的數據，比特幣在過去 12 年中有 9 年是全球表現最好的資產類別——通常差距很大。</p>
<p>在比特幣價值飆升的年份，黃金幾乎無影無蹤。例如，在 2023 年，比特幣的價值增加了 157%，而黃金僅上漲了 15%。在 2021 年，比特幣的價值增加了 60%，但黃金價格下降了 4%。</p>
<p>但問題是：在比特幣價值崩潰的年份，你會希望把所有的錢都投入黃金。它無疑是世界上最好的避險資產。在 2022 年，比特幣損失了 65% 的價值，但黃金僅微漲 0.4%。在 2018 年，比特幣損失了 73% 的價值，但黃金僅下跌了 1%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/d/dgwL8wZB.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/d/dgwL8wZB.png"/></p>
<p>iShares 比特幣信託 ETF 圖表來自 TradingView</p>
<p>自從去年現貨比特幣 ETF 推出以來，它們的表現顯著優於其對應的黃金 ETF。舉個例子：<strong>iShares 比特幣信託</strong> 自 2024 年 1 月推出以來上漲了 180%。在同一時期，<strong>iShares 黃金信託</strong> 上漲了 97%。</p>
<p>因此，僅僅基於過去的表現，比特幣優於黃金。你可以選擇過去十年中的任何一組年份，比特幣的表現都會超過黃金。當然，唯一的警告是，比特幣表現出極端的波動性，通常每隔幾年就會損失超過一半的價值。</p>
<h2>哪個是更好的對沖工具？</h2>
<p>近年來，稱比特幣為 “數字黃金” 已成為一種時尚。這裏的思路是，比特幣是一種稀缺資產，就像黃金一樣。只能存在 2100 萬個比特幣，而目前已有 1990 萬個在流通。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzcxMzAvZ29sZC1iaXRjb2luLXBpbGUuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzcxMzAvZ29sZC1iaXRjb2luLXBpbGUuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>如果比特幣確實是 “數字黃金”，那麼它可能像實物黃金一樣，能夠對抗宏觀經濟不確定性和地緣政治風險。而這正是目前似乎正在發生的事情。</p>
<p>事實上，華爾街交易員稱當前從美元轉向比特幣和黃金的舉動為 “貶值交易”。簡而言之，交易員們在押注美元的進一步貶值以及全球法定貨幣的持續貶值。</p>
<p>這裏有多種因素在起作用，包括巨大的財政赤字、對美聯儲獨立性的擔憂，以及可能因高額關税導致的失控通脹。歸根結底，擺脱當前債務危機的唯一方法可能是印更多的錢，而這隻會進一步貶值美元。</p>
<h2>如果黃金突破 4000 美元，比特幣會漲到 165,000 美元嗎？</h2>
<p>有趣的是，比特幣似乎在滯後追蹤黃金的趨勢。簡而言之，如果黃金飆升，那麼比特幣肯定會在幾周後隨之上漲。因此，如果你預計黃金很快會突破 4000 美元，那麼比特幣幾乎肯定也會隨之大幅上漲。</p>
<p>但會漲到多高？根據 <strong>摩根大通</strong> 的預測，比特幣可能在 2025 年漲到 165,000 美元。該銀行表示，比特幣相對於黃金仍然被低估，因此在今年剩餘時間裏可能會追趕。一旦你計算數字並調整波動性，比特幣相對於黃金可能被低估多達 42%。</p>
<h2>勝者是...</h2>
<p>黃金可能實際上是比特幣更好的投資，只要 “貶值交易” 仍在進行。顯然，比特幣落後於黃金，大多數交易員仍然將黃金視為對抗宏觀經濟不確定性和地緣政治風險的終極對沖工具。</p>
<p>但從長遠來看，我寧願選擇比特幣。如果歷史可以作為任何指導，比特幣在未來十年中應該會繼續超越黃金。</p>

GBTC

<p>比特幣今年上漲了 30%，而黃金則上漲了 50%。歷史上，比特幣在過去 12 年中的 9 年裏表現優於黃金，成為最佳資產類別。然而，在比特幣下跌期間，黃金被證明是更安全的投資。目前，比特幣被視為對經濟不確定性的對沖，預測到 2025 年其價格可能達到 165,000 美元。儘管黃金目前佔據優勢，但預計比特幣在長期內將超越黃金</p>

<p><strong>Bitcoin</strong>(BTC 0.54%) may be up 30% this year, but gold is up 50%. That's simply not supposed to happen. In most years, Bitcoin has trounced the performance of gold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>比特幣</strong>(BTC 0.54%) 今年可能上漲了 30%，但黃金上漲了 50%。這顯然不應該發生。在大多數年份，比特幣的表現都遠超黃金。</p>
</div><p>So what's going on here? Is it time to double down on Bitcoin, with the expectation of catch-up gains later this year? Or is it time to run for the hills and put your faith in gold bullion? Let's take a closer look.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那麼這裏發生了什麼？是時候加倍押注比特幣，期待在今年晚些時候獲得追趕收益嗎？還是該逃離，寄希望於黃金實物？讓我們仔細看看。</p>
</div><h2>Historical performance</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>歷史表現</h2>
</div><p>If you zoom out and take a long-term perspective, it's easy to pick a winner. According to data from <strong>WisdomTree</strong>, Bitcoin has been the top-performing asset class in the world in 9 of the past 12 years -- often by a wide margin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你放遠目光，從長期角度來看，選擇贏家很簡單。根據 <strong>WisdomTree</strong> 的數據，比特幣在過去 12 年中有 9 年是全球表現最好的資產類別——通常差距很大。</p>
</div><p>In years that Bitcoin has surged in value, gold has been nowhere to be found. For example, in 2023, Bitcoin increased in value by 157%, while gold rose by only 15%. In 2021, Bitcoin increased in value by 60%, but the price of gold declined by 4%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在比特幣價值飆升的年份，黃金幾乎無影無蹤。例如，在 2023 年，比特幣的價值增加了 157%，而黃金僅上漲了 15%。在 2021 年，比特幣的價值增加了 60%，但黃金價格下降了 4%。</p>
</div><p>But here's the thing: In the years that Bitcoin collapsed in value, you wanted to have all your money in gold. It was simply the best safe-haven asset in the world. In 2022, Bitcoin lost 65% of its value, but gold was up a very modest 0.4%. In 2018, Bitcoin lost 73% of its value, but gold was only down 1%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但問題是：在比特幣價值崩潰的年份，你會希望把所有的錢都投入黃金。它無疑是世界上最好的避險資產。在 2022 年，比特幣損失了 65% 的價值，但黃金僅微漲 0.4%。在 2018 年，比特幣損失了 73% 的價值，但黃金僅下跌了 1%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/d/dgwL8wZB.png" alt="" original-src="https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/d/dgwL8wZB.png"/></p>
<p>iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF chart by TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>iShares 比特幣信託 ETF 圖表來自 TradingView</p>
</div><p>Ever since the spot Bitcoin ETFs launched last year, they have significantly outperformed their counterpart gold ETFs. Case in point: The <strong>iShares Bitcoin Trust</strong> is up a robust 180% since launching in January 2024. In that same time period, the <strong>iShares Gold Trust</strong> is up 97%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自從去年現貨比特幣 ETF 推出以來，它們的表現顯著優於其對應的黃金 ETF。舉個例子：<strong>iShares 比特幣信託</strong> 自 2024 年 1 月推出以來上漲了 180%。在同一時期，<strong>iShares 黃金信託</strong> 上漲了 97%。</p>
</div><p>So, solely based on past performance, Bitcoin gets the nod over gold. You can pick just about any set of years you want over the past decade, and Bitcoin will outperform gold. The only caveat, of course, is that Bitcoin has exhibited extreme volatility, and can usually be counted on to lose more than half its value every few years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，僅僅基於過去的表現，比特幣優於黃金。你可以選擇過去十年中的任何一組年份，比特幣的表現都會超過黃金。當然，唯一的警告是，比特幣表現出極端的波動性，通常每隔幾年就會損失超過一半的價值。</p>
</div><h2>Which is the better hedge?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>哪個是更好的對沖工具？</h2>
</div><p>In recent years, it has become fashionable to refer to Bitcoin as &#34;digital gold.&#34; The thinking here is that Bitcoin is a scarce asset, just like gold. Only 21 million bitcoins can ever exist, and 19.9 million are already in circulation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>近年來，稱比特幣為 “數字黃金” 已成為一種時尚。這裏的思路是，比特幣是一種稀缺資產，就像黃金一樣。只能存在 2100 萬個比特幣，而目前已有 1990 萬個在流通。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzcxMzAvZ29sZC1iaXRjb2luLXBpbGUuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F837130%2Fgold-bitcoin-pile.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>If it is indeed &#34;digital gold,&#34; Bitcoin might be able to act as a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical risk, just like physical gold. And that's exactly what appears to be happening right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果比特幣確實是 “數字黃金”，那麼它可能像實物黃金一樣，能夠對抗宏觀經濟不確定性和地緣政治風險。而這正是目前似乎正在發生的事情。</p>
</div><p>In fact, Wall Street traders are calling the current move out of dollars and into Bitcoin and gold the &#34;debasement trade.&#34; To make a long story short, traders are betting on the further devaluation of the U.S. dollar and the ongoing debasement of fiat currencies worldwide.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事實上，華爾街交易員稱當前從美元轉向比特幣和黃金的舉動為 “貶值交易”。簡而言之，交易員們在押注美元的進一步貶值以及全球法定貨幣的持續貶值。</p>
</div><p>There is a mix of factors at work here, including huge fiscal deficits, concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, and potential runaway inflation from sky-high tariffs. At the end of the day, the only way out of the current debt crisis may be to print more money, and that will only devalue the dollar even more.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這裏有多種因素在起作用，包括巨大的財政赤字、對美聯儲獨立性的擔憂，以及可能因高額關税導致的失控通脹。歸根結底，擺脱當前債務危機的唯一方法可能是印更多的錢，而這隻會進一步貶值美元。</p>
</div><h2>If gold zooms past $4,000, then Bitcoin goes to $165,000?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>如果黃金突破 4000 美元，比特幣會漲到 165,000 美元嗎？</h2>
</div><p>Interestingly, Bitcoin appears to be tracking gold trends, but on a lagging basis. In short, if gold soars higher, then Bitcoin is sure to go along for the ride -- a few weeks later. Thus, if you are expecting gold to soar through the $4,000 level soon, then Bitcoin is almost certainly poised to surge higher as well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有趣的是，比特幣似乎在滯後追蹤黃金的趨勢。簡而言之，如果黃金飆升，那麼比特幣肯定會在幾周後隨之上漲。因此，如果你預計黃金很快會突破 4000 美元，那麼比特幣幾乎肯定也會隨之大幅上漲。</p>
</div><p>But how high? According to <strong>JPMorgan Chase</strong>, Bitcoin could rise to $165,000 in 2025. According to the bank, Bitcoin remains undervalued compared to gold, so it's likely to play catch-up for the remainder of the year. Once you run the numbers and adjust for volatility, then Bitcoin could be as much as 42% undervalued relative to gold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但會漲到多高？根據 <strong>摩根大通</strong> 的預測，比特幣可能在 2025 年漲到 165,000 美元。該銀行表示，比特幣相對於黃金仍然被低估，因此在今年剩餘時間裏可能會追趕。一旦你計算數字並調整波動性，比特幣相對於黃金可能被低估多達 42%。</p>
</div><h2>And the winner is...</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>勝者是...</h2>
</div><p>Gold might actually be a better investment than Bitcoin right now as long as the &#34;debasement trade&#34; is in play. It's clear that Bitcoin is lagging behind gold, and that most traders still view gold as the ultimate hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黃金可能實際上是比特幣更好的投資，只要 “貶值交易” 仍在進行。顯然，比特幣落後於黃金，大多數交易員仍然將黃金視為對抗宏觀經濟不確定性和地緣政治風險的終極對沖工具。</p>
</div><p>But over the long haul, I'd rather be in Bitcoin. If history is any guide, Bitcoin should continue to outshine gold over the next decade as well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但從長遠來看，我寧願選擇比特幣。如果歷史可以作為任何指導，比特幣在未來十年中應該會繼續超越黃金。</p>
</div>

更佳的投資選擇：比特幣還是黃金