<p>儘管週五指數下滑，但近期的方向非常明確。<strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong>、<strong>道瓊斯工業平均指數</strong> 和 <strong>納斯達克</strong> 因市場對公司能夠應對唐納德·特朗普總統的關税計劃並繼續實現增長的樂觀情緒而飆升。此外，投資者紛紛湧入人工智能（AI）股票，寄希望於這些公司在 AI 基礎設施建設加速的情況下，收入會大幅增長。AI 巨頭 <strong>英偉達</strong> 預測，到本世紀末，AI 基礎設施支出可能達到 4 萬億美元——如果這一預測成真，許多公司和投資者可能會獲得豐厚回報。</p>
<p>事實上，動能如此強勁，以至於標準普爾 500 指數在最近幾個月創下了多個新紀錄，並且正朝着連續第三年的增長邁進。在這樣一個光明的背景下，你可能會想知道專家投資者沃倫·巴菲特的最新動向。這位億萬富翁領導的 <strong>伯克希爾哈撒韋</strong> 在近 60 年內為股東提供了超越市場的年回報，因此他證明了自己能夠在各種投資環境中進行投資——從牛市到熊市，甚至是市場崩盤。</p>
<p>現在，隨着指數飆升，巴菲特採取了一項可能對投資者發出警告的舉動——這位常被稱為 “奧馬哈的先知” 的投資大師是否知道華爾街不知道的事情？讓我們來看看。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzY1ODgvd2FycmVuLWJ1ZmZldHQtMi10bWYtbWF5LTIwMTUuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzY1ODgvd2FycmVuLWJ1ZmZldHQtMi10bWYtbWF5LTIwMTUuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：The Motley Fool。</p>
<h2>巴菲特的投資策略</h2>
<p>首先，簡要説明一下巴菲特的投資方式。他作為 <strong>伯克希爾哈撒韋</strong> 的董事長兼首席執行官建立了一個帝國——但這並不是因為選擇那些一夜之間暴漲的股票。巴菲特並沒有廣泛投資於一些在一兩年內股價飆升三位數或四位數的科技領域。相反，這位投資者更青睞他熟悉且感到舒適的行業，並持有包括金融、消費品和能源等領域的多元化股票。</p>
<p>當他覺得這些公司被低估並具備獲得市場其他部分認可的潛力時，巴菲特會買入這些股票——然後他持有這些股票，通常會隨着這些公司穩步增長盈利和業務而獲利。他還非常喜歡分紅，並從擁有像 <strong>可口可樂</strong> 這樣的分紅王者中受益，收穫了數十年的被動收入。</p>
<p>最後，巴菲特不追隨市場趨勢，而是始終堅持他的投資原則。這讓我想到了巴菲特最近的舉動。這位億萬富翁在今年第二季度連續第 11 個季度成為股票的淨賣家——這意味着他出售的股票價值超過了他購買的股票價值。這幫助伯克希爾哈撒韋在今年建立了創紀錄的現金頭寸，並在最近一個季度末達到了 3440 億美元。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/590d857c76b7a0b4785e9beed006da7e.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/590d857c76b7a0b4785e9beed006da7e.png"/></p>
<p>BRK.B 現金和短期投資（季度）數據來自 YCharts</p>
<h2>巴菲特知道什麼</h2>
<p>現在，讓我們考慮一下我們的問題：巴菲特在其他人紛紛湧入股票時表現出這種謹慎，是否知道華爾街不知道的事情？這位投資巨頭可能只是更加關注一個關鍵因素，那就是估值。儘管一些股票提供了很好的買入機會——巴菲特在最近幾個月發現了這些機會並進行了購買，例如開設了 <strong>聯合健康集團</strong> 的頭寸，並增加了對 <strong>泳池公司</strong> 的持有——但整體市場看起來價格昂貴。而作為一位著名的價值投資者，巴菲特拒絕以任何價格購買股票。</p>
<p>因此，這位億萬富翁可能正專注於標準普爾 500 指數的 Shiller CAPE 比率，這一指標顯示了 10 年期間每股收益與價格的關係——而他可能對看到的情況並不滿意。今年這一指標達到了過去僅出現過兩次的水平，表明整體市場價格昂貴。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f72b665b216b0106d34fcf9861d0488a.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f72b665b216b0106d34fcf9861d0488a.png"/></p>
<p>標準普爾 500 指數 Shiller CAPE 比率數據來自 YCharts</p>
<p>在這樣的時期，巴菲特不大量投入現金而選擇鎖定一些股票的利潤並謹慎投資並不令人驚訝。</p>
<p>這對你作為投資者意味着什麼？這並不意味着你應該拋售你的股票並停止投資。相反，這意味着像巴菲特一樣，你應該尋找機會——因為在每個市場階段都有機會——同時，留出一些現金，以便將來也能投入。畢竟，今天看起來昂貴的某些股票在未來某個時候可能會以更合理的價格交易——而像巴菲特一樣，你會希望準備好抓住機會，持有並在長期內獲得勝利。</p>

伯克希爾哈撒韋-B

伯克希爾哈撒韋-A

南方兩倍做多伯克希爾

<p>沃倫·巴菲特以其謹慎的投資策略而聞名，已經連續 11 個季度成為股票的淨賣家，建立了 3440 億美元的創紀錄現金頭寸。儘管近期像標準普爾 500 指數這樣的指數出現了上漲，但巴菲特的行動表明，他可能認為市場被高估，特別是高位的希勒 CAPE 比率暗示了這一點。投資者被建議在尋找機會的同時保持一定的現金，以便進行未來的投資，這反映了巴菲特在購買股票之前重視評估的做法</p>

<p>Though indexes slid on Friday, the direction in recent times has been clear. The <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>, the <strong>Dow Jones Industrial Average</strong> and the <strong>Nasdaq</strong> have been soaring on optimism companies can handle President Donald Trump's tariff plan -- and continue to deliver growth. On top of this, investors have piled into artificial intelligence (AI) stocks amid hopes that these companies will see revenue explode higher as the AI infrastructure buildout scales up. AI behemoth <strong>Nvidia</strong> has predicted AI infrastructure spending may reach $4 trillion by the end of the decade -- if that happens, many companies and investors could win big.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管週五指數下滑，但近期的方向非常明確。<strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong>、<strong>道瓊斯工業平均指數</strong> 和 <strong>納斯達克</strong> 因市場對公司能夠應對唐納德·特朗普總統的關税計劃並繼續實現增長的樂觀情緒而飆升。此外，投資者紛紛湧入人工智能（AI）股票，寄希望於這些公司在 AI 基礎設施建設加速的情況下，收入會大幅增長。AI 巨頭 <strong>英偉達</strong> 預測，到本世紀末，AI 基礎設施支出可能達到 4 萬億美元——如果這一預測成真，許多公司和投資者可能會獲得豐厚回報。</p>
</div><p>In fact, momentum has been so strong that the S&amp;P 500 has reached several new records in recent months and is heading for its third consecutive annual gain. Against this bright backdrop, you may be wondering about the latest moves of expert investor Warren Buffett. The billionaire, at the head of <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>, has delivered a market-beating annual return for shareholders over nearly 60 years, so he's proven his ability to invest through all investment environments -- from bull markets to bear markets and even market crashes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事實上，動能如此強勁，以至於標準普爾 500 指數在最近幾個月創下了多個新紀錄，並且正朝着連續第三年的增長邁進。在這樣一個光明的背景下，你可能會想知道專家投資者沃倫·巴菲特的最新動向。這位億萬富翁領導的 <strong>伯克希爾哈撒韋</strong> 在近 60 年內為股東提供了超越市場的年回報，因此他證明了自己能夠在各種投資環境中進行投資——從牛市到熊市，甚至是市場崩盤。</p>
</div><p>Now, as indexes soar, Buffett has made a move that could be a warning for investors -- does the Oracle of Omaha, as he's often called, know something Wall Street doesn't? Let's find out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在，隨着指數飆升，巴菲特採取了一項可能對投資者發出警告的舉動——這位常被稱為 “奧馬哈的先知” 的投資大師是否知道華爾街不知道的事情？讓我們來看看。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzY1ODgvd2FycmVuLWJ1ZmZldHQtMi10bWYtbWF5LTIwMTUuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F836588%2Fwarren-buffett-2-tmf-may-2015.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: The Motley Fool.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：The Motley Fool。</p>
</div><h2>Buffett's investment strategy</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>巴菲特的投資策略</h2>
</div><p>So, first, a quick note on how Buffett goes about investing. He has built an empire as chairman and chief executive officer of Berkshire Hathaway -- but this isn't due to selecting stocks that take off overnight. Buffett hasn't broadly invested in areas like technology that have seen some stocks soar in the triple- and quadruple-digits in a year or two. Instead, the investor favors industries he knows well and feels comfortable with, and he holds a diversified bunch of stocks in areas including financials, consumer goods, and energy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，簡要説明一下巴菲特的投資方式。他作為 <strong>伯克希爾哈撒韋</strong> 的董事長兼首席執行官建立了一個帝國——但這並不是因為選擇那些一夜之間暴漲的股票。巴菲特並沒有廣泛投資於一些在一兩年內股價飆升三位數或四位數的科技領域。相反，這位投資者更青睞他熟悉且感到舒適的行業，並持有包括金融、消費品和能源等領域的多元化股票。</p>
</div><p>Buffett scoops up these players when he feels they're undervalued and have what it takes to gain the recognition of the rest of the market over time -- then he holds on and generally wins as these companies steadily grow earnings and their businesses. He also is a big fan of dividends and has benefited from owning Dividend Kings like <strong>Coca-Cola</strong> for decades and collecting passive income.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當他覺得這些公司被低估並具備獲得市場其他部分認可的潛力時，巴菲特會買入這些股票——然後他持有這些股票，通常會隨着這些公司穩步增長盈利和業務而獲利。他還非常喜歡分紅，並從擁有像 <strong>可口可樂</strong> 這樣的分紅王者中受益，收穫了數十年的被動收入。</p>
</div><p>Finally, Buffett doesn't follow market trends and instead sticks to his investment principles throughout market environments. And this leads me to the move Buffett made recently. The billionaire, in the second quarter of this year, was a net seller of stocks for the 11th consecutive quarter -- this means the value of stocks he sold surpasses the value of those he purchased. And this has helped Berkshire Hathaway build a cash position touching record levels this year and settling at $344 billion at the end of the recent quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最後，巴菲特不追隨市場趨勢，而是始終堅持他的投資原則。這讓我想到了巴菲特最近的舉動。這位億萬富翁在今年第二季度連續第 11 個季度成為股票的淨賣家——這意味着他出售的股票價值超過了他購買的股票價值。這幫助伯克希爾哈撒韋在今年建立了創紀錄的現金頭寸，並在最近一個季度末達到了 3440 億美元。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/590d857c76b7a0b4785e9beed006da7e.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/590d857c76b7a0b4785e9beed006da7e.png"/></p>
<p>BRK.B Cash and Short Term Investments (Quarterly) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>BRK.B 現金和短期投資（季度）數據來自 YCharts</p>
</div><h2>Here's what Buffett knows</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>巴菲特知道什麼</h2>
</div><p>Now, let's consider our question: Does Buffett, showing this sort of caution while others pile into stocks, know something Wall Street doesn't? The investing giant may simply be paying more attention to one key factor, and that's valuation. Though some stocks offer great buying opportunities -- and Buffett has found these and made purchases in recent months, for example, opening a position in <strong>UnitedHealth Group</strong> and increasing his holding of <strong>Pool Corp</strong>. -- the overall market is looking pricey. And Buffett, a famous value investor, refuses to buy a stock at just any price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在，讓我們考慮一下我們的問題：巴菲特在其他人紛紛湧入股票時表現出這種謹慎，是否知道華爾街不知道的事情？這位投資巨頭可能只是更加關注一個關鍵因素，那就是估值。儘管一些股票提供了很好的買入機會——巴菲特在最近幾個月發現了這些機會並進行了購買，例如開設了 <strong>聯合健康集團</strong> 的頭寸，並增加了對 <strong>泳池公司</strong> 的持有——但整體市場看起來價格昂貴。而作為一位著名的價值投資者，巴菲特拒絕以任何價格購買股票。</p>
</div><p>So, the billionaire likely is focusing on the S&amp;P 500 Shiller CAPE ratio, a metric that shows earnings per share in relation to price over a 10-year period -- and he probably doesn't like what he sees. The metric this year reached a level that it's only seen two other times in the past, signaling the overall market is pricey.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，這位億萬富翁可能正專注於標準普爾 500 指數的 Shiller CAPE 比率，這一指標顯示了 10 年期間每股收益與價格的關係——而他可能對看到的情況並不滿意。今年這一指標達到了過去僅出現過兩次的水平，表明整體市場價格昂貴。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f72b665b216b0106d34fcf9861d0488a.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f72b665b216b0106d34fcf9861d0488a.png"/></p>
<p>S&amp;P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>標準普爾 500 指數 Shiller CAPE 比率數據來自 YCharts</p>
</div><p>During times like these, it's not surprising that Buffett isn't deploying boatloads of cash and instead chooses to lock in profits on some stocks and invest cautiously.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這樣的時期，巴菲特不大量投入現金而選擇鎖定一些股票的利潤並謹慎投資並不令人驚訝。</p>
</div><p>What does this mean for you as an investor? This doesn't suggest you should unload your stocks and stop investing. Instead, it means that, like Buffett, you should look for opportunities -- as they exist in every market phase -- and at the same time, set aside some cash that you might deploy in the future too. After all, certain players that look expensive today may trade for more reasonable prices at some point down the road -- and, like Buffett, you'll want to be ready to seize the opportunity, hold on, and score a win over the long run.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這對你作為投資者意味着什麼？這並不意味着你應該拋售你的股票並停止投資。相反，這意味着像巴菲特一樣，你應該尋找機會——因為在每個市場階段都有機會——同時，留出一些現金，以便將來也能投入。畢竟，今天看起來昂貴的某些股票在未來某個時候可能會以更合理的價格交易——而像巴菲特一樣，你會希望準備好抓住機會，持有並在長期內獲得勝利。</p>
</div>

As Indexes Soar, Does Warren Buffett Know Something Wall Street Doesn't? He Just Made a Move That Could Be a Warning for Investors.

- 儘管股指下滑，S&P 500 和納斯達克近期表現強勁。  
- 巴菲特在連續 11 個季度淨賣出股票，現金達到 3440 億美元。  
- 他關注市場估值，可能對當前高估的市場持謹慎態度。  

隨着指數的飆升，沃倫·巴菲特是否掌握了華爾街所不知的信息？他最近的舉動可能對投資者發出警告