<p>美國股市今年異常波動。<strong>標普 500 指數</strong>(^GSPC 1.56%) 在唐納德·特朗普總統於四月宣佈大規模關税時崩潰，跌幅達到 10.5%，創下歷史上第五大兩日跌幅。該指數最終從歷史最高點下跌了 19%，勉強避免了熊市區域。</p>
<p>然而，當政府推遲最嚴厲的關税時，標普 500 指數迅速反彈，自那時以來，該指數因企業盈利和整體經濟遠強於最初的預期而創下數十個新高。標普 500 指數自四月低點上漲了 33%。</p>
<p>然而，美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾剛剛給投資者發出了警告。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzc1MjUvamVyb21lLXBvd2VsbC1jaGFpci1wb3dlbGwtYW5zd2Vycy1yZXBvcnRlcnMtcXVlc3Rpb25zLWF0LXRoZS1mb21jLXByZXNzLWNvbmZlcmVuY2UuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzc1MjUvamVyb21lLXBvd2VsbC1jaGFpci1wb3dlbGwtYW5zd2Vycy1yZXBvcnRlcnMtcXVlc3Rpb25zLWF0LXRoZS1mb21jLXByZXNzLWNvbmZlcmVuY2UuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>傑羅姆·鮑威爾主席在 FOMC 新聞發佈會上回答記者提問。圖片來源：美聯儲官方照片。</p>
<h2>美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾表示關税可能導致未來幾個月通脹上升</h2>
<p>聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）在九月會議上將聯邦基金利率下調了 25 個基點，目前目標區間為 4% 至 4.25%。聯邦基金利率是影響經濟中其他利率的基準，包括信用卡、抵押貸款和個人貸款的利率。當 12 名成員擔心經濟停滯時，FOMC 會降低聯邦基金利率。</p>
<p>確實，鮑威爾主席將最近的貨幣政策變化歸因於由於消費者支出疲軟導致的經濟增長放緩。他在九月 FOMC 會議後告訴記者：“今年上半年 GDP 增長率約為 1.5%，低於去年的 2.5%。這種增長放緩在很大程度上反映了消費者支出的減弱。”</p>
<p>重要的是，鮑威爾指出，特朗普政府施加的關税已經開始推高消費者價格。然而，企業迄今為止吸收了大部分成本增加，這可能解釋了為什麼夏季招聘放緩。美國經濟在五月至八月期間平均每月新增 27,000 個就業崗位，這是自 2010 年以來（不包括疫情）最糟糕的四個月。</p>
<p>然而，鮑威爾預計通脹壓力將在今年剩餘時間和明年 “繼續加大”，因為企業將更多的關税負擔轉嫁給消費者。大多數經濟學家對此持相同觀點。在《華爾街日報》調查的 62 位經濟學家中，中位數預測顯示，消費者價格指數（CPI）通脹將在 2026 年 6 月達到 3.1%，高於 2025 年 8 月的 2.9%。</p>
<p>在任何情況下，通脹對股市來説都是壞消息，因為它對消費者支出構成阻力，並偶爾迫使 FOMC 提高利率。但目前威脅經濟的關税引發的通脹尤其是壞消息，因為股市的估值已經處於高位。</p>
<h2>美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾表示，股票在許多指標上 “相對高估”</h2>
<p>在九月底，鮑威爾主席在羅德島的 “大普羅維登斯商會” 發表講話。他提醒與會者，美聯儲並不針對股票或其他金融資產的特定價格，也不聲稱知道在任何特定時刻正確的價格是什麼。</p>
<p>儘管如此，鮑威爾仍然警告投資者，“股票價格在許多指標上相對高估”。他沒有詳細説明具體的倍數，但根據 <strong>FactSet Research</strong> 的數據，標普 500 指數目前的前瞻市盈率為 22.8 倍，顯著高於 10 年平均的 18.6 倍。</p>
<p>重要的是，前瞻市盈率通常是短期回報的差勁預測，因為投資者可能在長時間內保持非理性的樂觀或悲觀。但它們通常是長期回報的良好預測指標。標普 500 的前瞻市盈率在歷史上僅在兩個時期超過 22，而該指數最終在這兩個時期都崩潰了。</p>
<ul>
<li>網絡泡沫：前瞻市盈率在 1999 年飄升至 22 以上，並在接下來的三年中普遍保持在該水平以上。標普 500 最終在 2000 年 3 月達到峯值後下跌了 49%。</li>
<li>COVID-19 疫情：前瞻市盈率在 2020 年飆升至 22 以上，因為投資者低估了供應鏈中斷對經濟的深遠影響。標普 500 最終在 2022 年 1 月達到峯值後下跌了 25%。</li>
</ul>
<p>結論是：美聯儲並不對金融資產是否公允定價持官方立場，但鮑威爾仍然警告投資者，股票的估值處於高位。確實，前瞻市盈率超過 22，歷史表明標普 500 最終將大幅下跌。因此，現在不是投資者冒大風險的時候。</p>

標普 500 指數

<p>美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾警告投資者，標普 500 指數的估值過高，目前的前瞻市盈率為 22.8，超過歷史平均水平 18.6。他將關税可能引發的通貨膨脹與消費者支出放緩聯繫在一起，並警告這可能對股市產生負面影響。鮑威爾的言論表明，標普 500 指數可能面臨顯著下跌，因為歷史表明，這種高估值往往會在市場急劇下跌之前出現。建議投資者在此時避免冒險</p>

<p>The U.S. stock market has been abnormally volatile this year. The <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(^GSPC 1.56%) crashed when President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs in April, falling 10.5% to record its fifth biggest two-day drop in history. The index ultimately declined 19% from its record high, narrowly avoiding bear market territory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國股市今年異常波動。<strong>標普 500 指數</strong>(^GSPC 1.56%) 在唐納德·特朗普總統於四月宣佈大規模關税時崩潰，跌幅達到 10.5%，創下歷史上第五大兩日跌幅。該指數最終從歷史最高點下跌了 19%，勉強避免了熊市區域。</p>
</div><p>However, the S&amp;P 500 rebounded quickly when the administration postponed the harshest tariffs, and the index has since recorded dozens of new highs as corporate earnings and the overall economy have been much stronger than initially feared. The S&amp;P 500 has advanced 33% from its April low.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，當政府推遲最嚴厲的關税時，標普 500 指數迅速反彈，自那時以來，該指數因企業盈利和整體經濟遠強於最初的預期而創下數十個新高。標普 500 指數自四月低點上漲了 33%。</p>
</div><p>However, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell just gave investors a warning.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾剛剛給投資者發出了警告。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzc1MjUvamVyb21lLXBvd2VsbC1jaGFpci1wb3dlbGwtYW5zd2Vycy1yZXBvcnRlcnMtcXVlc3Rpb25zLWF0LXRoZS1mb21jLXByZXNzLWNvbmZlcmVuY2UuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F837525%2Fjerome-powell-chair-powell-answers-reporters-questions-at-the-fomc-press-conference.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Chairman Jerome Powell answers reporters' questions at an FOMC press conference. Image source: Official Federal Reserve Photo.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>傑羅姆·鮑威爾主席在 FOMC 新聞發佈會上回答記者提問。圖片來源：美聯儲官方照片。</p>
</div><h2>Fed Chair Jerome Powell says tariffs could lead to higher inflation in the coming months</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾表示關税可能導致未來幾個月通脹上升</h2>
</div><p>The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cut the federal funds rate by a quarter point at the September meeting, such that the target range is now 4% to 4.25%. The federal funds rate is a benchmark that influences other interest rates across the economy, including those on credit cards, mortgages, and personal loans. The FOMC lowers the federal funds when the 12-member group is worried about the economy stalling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）在九月會議上將聯邦基金利率下調了 25 個基點，目前目標區間為 4% 至 4.25%。聯邦基金利率是影響經濟中其他利率的基準，包括信用卡、抵押貸款和個人貸款的利率。當 12 名成員擔心經濟停滯時，FOMC 會降低聯邦基金利率。</p>
</div><p>Indeed, Fed Chair Jerome Powell attributed the recent change in monetary policy to a deceleration in economic growth driven by weakness in consumer spending. &#34;GDP rose at a pace of around 1.5% in the first half of the year, down from 2.5% last year. That moderation in growth largely reflects a slowdown in consumer spending,&#34; he told reporters after the September FOMC meeting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>確實，鮑威爾主席將最近的貨幣政策變化歸因於由於消費者支出疲軟導致的經濟增長放緩。他在九月 FOMC 會議後告訴記者：“今年上半年 GDP 增長率約為 1.5%，低於去年的 2.5%。這種增長放緩在很大程度上反映了消費者支出的減弱。”</p>
</div><p>Importantly, Powell noted tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have started to push consumer prices higher. However, companies have so far absorbed a large portion of the cost increases, which may explain why hiring slowed over the summer. The U.S. economy added an average of 27,000 jobs per month between May and August, the worst four-month stretch (excluding the pandemic) since 2010.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>重要的是，鮑威爾指出，特朗普政府施加的關税已經開始推高消費者價格。然而，企業迄今為止吸收了大部分成本增加，這可能解釋了為什麼夏季招聘放緩。美國經濟在五月至八月期間平均每月新增 27,000 個就業崗位，這是自 2010 年以來（不包括疫情）最糟糕的四個月。</p>
</div><p>However, Powell expects inflationary pressure to &#34;continue to build over the course of the rest of the year and into next year&#34; as companies pass along a greater portion of the tariff burden to consumers. Most economists share that opinion. Among 62 economists surveyed by <em>The Wall Street Journal</em>, the median forecast says Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation will measure 3.1% in June 2026, up from 2.9% in August 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，鮑威爾預計通脹壓力將在今年剩餘時間和明年 “繼續加大”，因為企業將更多的關税負擔轉嫁給消費者。大多數經濟學家對此持相同觀點。在《華爾街日報》調查的 62 位經濟學家中，中位數預測顯示，消費者價格指數（CPI）通脹將在 2026 年 6 月達到 3.1%，高於 2025 年 8 月的 2.9%。</p>
</div><p>Inflation under any circumstance can be bad news for the stock market because it acts as a headwind to consumer spending and occasionally forces the FOMC to raise interest rates. But the tariff-induced inflation that currently threatens the economy is particularly bad news because the stock market's valuation is already elevated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在任何情況下，通脹對股市來説都是壞消息，因為它對消費者支出構成阻力，並偶爾迫使 FOMC 提高利率。但目前威脅經濟的關税引發的通脹尤其是壞消息，因為股市的估值已經處於高位。</p>
</div><h2>Fed Chair Jerome Powell says stocks are &#34;fairly highly valued&#34; by many measures</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾表示，股票在許多指標上 “相對高估”</h2>
</div><p>In late September, Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave a speech in Rhode Island at the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce. He reminded attendees the Fed does not target specific prices for stocks or other financial assets, nor does the central bank purport to know what the correct prices would be at any given point in time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在九月底，鮑威爾主席在羅德島的 “大普羅維登斯商會” 發表講話。他提醒與會者，美聯儲並不針對股票或其他金融資產的特定價格，也不聲稱知道在任何特定時刻正確的價格是什麼。</p>
</div><p>Nevertheless, Powell still warned investors that &#34;equity prices are fairly highly valued&#34; by many measures. He did not elaborate on specific multiples, but the S&amp;P 500 currently trades at 22.8 times forward earnings, a material premium to the 10-year average of 18.6 times forward earnings, according to <strong>FactSet Research</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，鮑威爾仍然警告投資者，“股票價格在許多指標上相對高估”。他沒有詳細説明具體的倍數，但根據 <strong>FactSet Research</strong> 的數據，標普 500 指數目前的前瞻市盈率為 22.8 倍，顯著高於 10 年平均的 18.6 倍。</p>
</div><p>Importantly, forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are typically a poor predictor of near-term returns because investors can remain irrationally optimistic or pessimistic for long periods. But they are frequently good predictors of long-term returns. The S&amp;P 500's forward P/E ratio has exceeded 22 during just two periods in history, and the index eventually crashed both times.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>重要的是，前瞻市盈率通常是短期回報的差勁預測，因為投資者可能在長時間內保持非理性的樂觀或悲觀。但它們通常是長期回報的良好預測指標。標普 500 的前瞻市盈率在歷史上僅在兩個時期超過 22，而該指數最終在這兩個時期都崩潰了。</p>
</div><ul>
<li>The dot-com bubble: The forward P/E ratio drifted above 22 in 1999 and generally stayed above that level for the next three years. The S&amp;P 500 ultimately declined 49% after peaking in March 2000.</li>
<li>The COVID-19 pandemic: The forward P/E ratio surged above 22 in 2020 as investors underestimated how deeply supply chain disruptions would impact the economy. The S&amp;P 500 ultimately declined 25% after peaking in January 2022.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>網絡泡沫：前瞻市盈率在 1999 年飄升至 22 以上，並在接下來的三年中普遍保持在該水平以上。標普 500 最終在 2000 年 3 月達到峯值後下跌了 49%。</li>
<li>COVID-19 疫情：前瞻市盈率在 2020 年飆升至 22 以上，因為投資者低估了供應鏈中斷對經濟的深遠影響。標普 500 最終在 2022 年 1 月達到峯值後下跌了 25%。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Here's the bottom line: The Federal Reserve does not take an official stance on whether financial assets are fairly priced, but Powell still warned investors that stocks trade at elevated valuations. Indeed, with a forward P/E ratio above 22, history says the S&amp;P 500 will eventually drop sharply. So, now is not the time for investors to take big risks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>結論是：美聯儲並不對金融資產是否公允定價持官方立場，但鮑威爾仍然警告投資者，股票的估值處於高位。確實，前瞻市盈率超過 22，歷史表明標普 500 最終將大幅下跌。因此，現在不是投資者冒大風險的時候。</p>
</div>

Fed Chair Jerome Powell Warns Investors About the Stock Market -- History Says the S&P 500 Will Do This Next

- 美國股市今年波動異常，標普 500 指數一度下跌 19%。  
- 美聯儲主席鮑威爾警告關税可能導致未來幾個月通脹上升。  
- 當前標普 500 的前瞻市盈率高於 22，歷史顯示可能面臨大幅下跌。  

美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾警告投資者關於股市——歷史顯示標普 500 指數接下來可能會有這樣的表現