<p>在過去的三十年裏，投資者幾乎一直有一個顛覆性的創新或下一個大趨勢來激發他們的興趣。例子包括互聯網的出現、基因組解碼、納米技術、3D 打印、區塊鏈技術、元宇宙，以及最近人工智能（AI）的崛起。</p>
<p>但在更為罕見的情況下，多個下一個大趨勢共存，例如我們現在所見的 AI 革命和量子計算的出現。</p>
<p>量子計算依賴於量子力學和專用計算機來解決傳統計算機無法執行的複雜問題。量子計算機有潛力加速藥物發現，推動 AI 算法的學習能力，並能夠使網絡安全平台更加安全，以及其他現實世界的應用案例。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzc0NTQvcXVhbnR1bS1jb21wdXRlci1kaWdpdGFsLWRhdGEtY2FsY3VsYXRpb25zLWFydGlmaWNpYWwtaW50ZWxsaWdlbmNlLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzc0NTQvcXVhbnR1bS1jb21wdXRlci1kaWdpdGFsLWRhdGEtY2FsY3VsYXRpb25zLWFydGlmaWNpYWwtaW50ZWxsaWdlbmNlLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>儘管對量子計算的可尋址機會估計差異很大，但一些人認為這一技術到 2035 年至 2040 年時將接近或達到 1 萬億美元的全球經濟附加值。這是一個足夠大的數字，可以支持多個贏家，並吸引尋求增長的投資者。</p>
<p>華爾街最受歡迎的量子計算純粹股票在過去一年中絕對飆升（截至 10 月 10 日收盤）：</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>IonQ</strong>(IONQ -5.53%): 增長 620%</li>
<li><strong>Rigetti Computing</strong>(RGTI 1.93%): 增長 5,710%</li>
<li><strong>D-Wave Quantum</strong>(QBTS 5.96%): 增長 3,600%</li>
<li><strong>Quantum Computing, Inc.</strong>(QUBT 1.42%): 增長 2,780%</li>
</ul>
<p>儘管如此，這種規模的增長往往會吸引投資者，但它們也可能暴露出量子計算革命面臨的炒作和巨大的風險。以下四個逆風都有可能 derail IonQ、Rigetti、D-Wave 和 Quantum Computing, Inc. 正在享受的拋物線式上升。</p>
<h2>1. 歷史對早期創新並不友好</h2>
<p>華爾街四隻量子計算純粹股票面臨的第一個不可否認的問題是，歷史在過去三十年（甚至更長時間）對炒作技術和下一個大趨勢並沒有錯過。</p>
<p>具體來説，炒作的技術和創新總是經歷早期的泡沫破裂事件。這就是説，投資者可預測地高估了新引入的技術或趨勢的效用和/或採用率，最終導致高昂的增長預測未能實現。我們在互聯網的普及、基因組解碼、中國股票的崛起、納米技術、3D 打印、區塊鏈技術、大麻和元宇宙中見證了這一模式的發生。</p>
<p>量子計算的崛起並沒有表明它會成為這一不成文規則的例外。儘管這項技術有很多現實世界的潛力，但企業在優化其解決方案或從量子計算投資中獲得正回報方面還遠未達到。</p>
<p>根據歷史告訴我們的，泡沫的所有特徵都已牢牢確立。</p>
<h2>2. 融資努力可能會稀釋現有股東的權益</h2>
<p>IonQ、Rigetti Computing、D-Wave Quantum 和 Quantum Computing, Inc. 面臨的第二個重大風險是它們很可能需要稀釋股東權益（多次）以籌集資金並維持運營。</p>
<p>儘管未來幾年這四家公司都有巨大的銷售增長潛力，但它們在運營中集體虧損嚴重，並且正在消耗其資產負債表上的現金。2025 年前六個月的運營虧損如下：</p>
<ul>
<li>IonQ: 2.363 億美元</li>
<li>Rigetti Computing: 4150 萬美元</li>
<li>D-Wave Quantum: 3780 萬美元</li>
<li>Quantum Computing, Inc.: 1850 萬美元</li>
</ul>
<p>由於這些公司在運營方面尚未得到驗證，傳統的信貸和債務解決方案可能會受到限制。換句話説，發行股票並增加其流通股數量可能是未來幾年籌集資金的唯一可靠方法，這預計會對股東產生不利影響。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzc0NTQvbWFnbmlmaXlpbmctZ2xhc3MtZmluYW5jaWFsLW5ld3NwYXBlci1tYXJrZXQtZGF0YS1zdG9ja3MtZWNvbm9teS1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzc0NTQvbWFnbmlmaXlpbmctZ2xhc3MtZmluYW5jaWFsLW5ld3NwYXBlci1tYXJrZXQtZGF0YS1zdG9ja3MtZWNvbm9teS1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>3. 歷史高估值無法得到合理解釋</h2>
<p>如果你認為股市歷史上價格過高，那就更仔細看看華爾街的量子計算純粹股票！</p>
<p>請記住，“價值” 是一個主觀術語，在華爾街沒有完美的藍圖，經過時間考驗的市盈率（P/S）比率在試圖證明 IonQ、Rigetti、D-Wave 和 Quantum Computing, Inc. 現有估值時幾乎沒有容錯空間。</p>
<p>在互聯網的出現和普及之後，領先企業如 <strong>Cisco Systems</strong>、<strong>Amazon</strong> 和 <strong>Microsoft</strong> 的過去 12 個月（TTM）P/S 比率大約在 30 到 40 之間達到峯值。歷史先例一再表明，P/S 比率達到 30 或更高在華爾街並不被寬容或可持續。</p>
<p>在 TTM 基礎上，股市的量子計算寵兒的 P/S 比率（四捨五入到最接近的整數）分別為：</p>
<ul>
<li>IonQ: 308</li>
<li>Rigetti Computing: 1,406</li>
<li>D-Wave Quantum: 379</li>
<li>Quantum Computing, Inc.: 8,965</li>
</ul>
<p>即使我們查看華爾街對 2029 年的共識銷售預期，四年後，我們仍在談論預計的 P/S 比率在 30 到 90 之間，這在歷史上是不可持續的。</p>
<h2>4. “七大奇蹟” 的深厚資金是一個不可否認的威脅</h2>
<p>量子計算的 Fab 4 純粹股票面臨的第四個也是最後一個重大風險是 Mag 7。</p>
<p>華爾街的 “七大巨頭” 股票代表了其在人工智能、雲計算和廣告等多個領域中最具影響力的企業。這七隻股票是迄今為止在美國交易的 10 只市值達到萬億美元的股票之一。最重要的是，除了 <strong>特斯拉</strong> 在最近幾個季度的表現外，該集團的成員都在產生大量的運營現金流。實際上，鉅額的股票回購計劃和/或分紅支付已經變得司空見慣。</p>
<p>目前，亞馬遜的量子計算服務 Braket 正在為客户提供來自 IonQ 和 Rigetti Computing 的專業計算機。但考慮到亞馬遜及其七大巨頭同行擁有比他們知道如何使用的更多資本，並且希望在每一個下一個重大創新中處於領先地位，期待他們外包量子計算基礎設施的需求似乎不太現實。</p>
<p>儘管 IonQ、Rigetti、D-Wave 和 Quantum Computing, Inc.在這一領域毫無疑問擁有先發優勢，但七大巨頭公司的資金實力和影響力使他們在長期內佔據了更大的優勢。</p>

QBTS

IONQ

RGTI

<p>本文討論了量子計算公司 IonQ、Rigetti Computing、D-Wave Quantum 和 Quantum Computing, Inc.面臨的重大風險。儘管這些公司的股票表現令人印象深刻，但它們可能面臨一些挑戰，例如歷史上過度炒作技術導致市場修正的模式、由於融資需求可能導致的股東稀釋，以及基於市銷率的不可持續的高估值。儘管量子計算領域前景廣闊，但可能並不免於歷史上影響早期創新的陷阱</p>

<p>Over the last three decades, investors have pretty consistently had a game-changing innovation or next-big-thing trend to pique their interest. Examples include the advent of the internet, genome decoding, nanotechnology, 3D printing, blockchain technology, the metaverse, and most recently the rise of artificial intelligence (AI).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去的三十年裏，投資者幾乎一直有一個顛覆性的創新或下一個大趨勢來激發他們的興趣。例子包括互聯網的出現、基因組解碼、納米技術、3D 打印、區塊鏈技術、元宇宙，以及最近人工智能（AI）的崛起。</p>
</div><p>But in rarer instances, multiple next-big-thing trends have coexisted, such as we're witnessing now with the AI revolution and the emergence of quantum computing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在更為罕見的情況下，多個下一個大趨勢共存，例如我們現在所見的 AI 革命和量子計算的出現。</p>
</div><p>Quantum computing relies on quantum mechanics and specialized computers to solve complex problems that traditional computers can't perform. Quantum computers can potentially speed up drug discovery, kick the learning aspect of AI algorithms into overdrive, and have the ability to make cybersecurity platforms more secure, among other real-world use cases.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>量子計算依賴於量子力學和專用計算機來解決傳統計算機無法執行的複雜問題。量子計算機有潛力加速藥物發現，推動 AI 算法的學習能力，並能夠使網絡安全平台更加安全，以及其他現實世界的應用案例。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzc0NTQvcXVhbnR1bS1jb21wdXRlci1kaWdpdGFsLWRhdGEtY2FsY3VsYXRpb25zLWFydGlmaWNpYWwtaW50ZWxsaWdlbmNlLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F837454%2Fquantum-computer-digital-data-calculations-artificial-intelligence-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>Although addressable opportunity estimates vary wildly for quantum computing, some see this technology approaching or reaching $1 trillion in added global economic value by 2035 to 2040. This is a big enough number to support multiple winners, and as well as entice growth-seeking investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管對量子計算的可尋址機會估計差異很大，但一些人認為這一技術到 2035 年至 2040 年時將接近或達到 1 萬億美元的全球經濟附加值。這是一個足夠大的數字，可以支持多個贏家，並吸引尋求增長的投資者。</p>
</div><p>Wall Street's most popular quantum computing pure-play stocks have absolutely soared over the trailing year (as of the closing bell on Oct. 10):</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>華爾街最受歡迎的量子計算純粹股票在過去一年中絕對飆升（截至 10 月 10 日收盤）：</p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>IonQ</strong>(IONQ -5.53%): 620% gain</li>
<li><strong>Rigetti Computing</strong>(RGTI 1.93%): 5,710% gain</li>
<li><strong>D-Wave Quantum</strong>(QBTS 5.96%): 3,600% gain</li>
<li><strong>Quantum Computing, Inc.</strong>(QUBT 1.42%): 2,780% gain</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>IonQ</strong>(IONQ -5.53%): 增長 620%</li>
<li><strong>Rigetti Computing</strong>(RGTI 1.93%): 增長 5,710%</li>
<li><strong>D-Wave Quantum</strong>(QBTS 5.96%): 增長 3,600%</li>
<li><strong>Quantum Computing, Inc.</strong>(QUBT 1.42%): 增長 2,780%</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Though gains of this magnitude tend to attract investors, they can also expose the hype and monumental risks facing the quantum computing revolution. The following four headwinds all have the potential to derail the parabolic ascents IonQ, Rigetti, D-Wave, and Quantum Computing, Inc. are enjoying.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，這種規模的增長往往會吸引投資者，但它們也可能暴露出量子計算革命面臨的炒作和巨大的風險。以下四個逆風都有可能 derail IonQ、Rigetti、D-Wave 和 Quantum Computing, Inc. 正在享受的拋物線式上升。</p>
</div><h2>1. History is no friend of early-stage innovations</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>1. 歷史對早期創新並不友好</h2>
</div><p>The first undeniable issue for Wall Street's four quantum computing pure-play stocks is that history hasn't been wrong about hyped technologies and next-big-thing trends in over three decades (if not longer).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>華爾街四隻量子計算純粹股票面臨的第一個不可否認的問題是，歷史在過去三十年（甚至更長時間）對炒作技術和下一個大趨勢並沒有錯過。</p>
</div><p>Specifically, hyped technologies and innovations have always endured an early innings bubble-bursting event. This is to say that investors have predictably overestimated the utility and/or adoption of a newly introduced technology or trend, which eventually leads to lofty growth projections not being met. We witnessed this pattern play out with the proliferation of the internet, genome decoding, the rise of China stocks, nanotechnology, 3D printing, blockchain technology, cannabis, and the metaverse.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>具體來説，炒作的技術和創新總是經歷早期的泡沫破裂事件。這就是説，投資者可預測地高估了新引入的技術或趨勢的效用和/或採用率，最終導致高昂的增長預測未能實現。我們在互聯網的普及、基因組解碼、中國股票的崛起、納米技術、3D 打印、區塊鏈技術、大麻和元宇宙中見證了這一模式的發生。</p>
</div><p>Nothing about the rise of quantum computing suggests it's going to be the exception to this unwritten rule. While there's plenty of real-world promise with this technology, businesses aren't anywhere close to optimizing its solutions or generating a positive return on quantum computing investments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>量子計算的崛起並沒有表明它會成為這一不成文規則的例外。儘管這項技術有很多現實世界的潛力，但企業在優化其解決方案或從量子計算投資中獲得正回報方面還遠未達到。</p>
</div><p>All the hallmarks of a bubble are firmly in place, based on what history tells us.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據歷史告訴我們的，泡沫的所有特徵都已牢牢確立。</p>
</div><h2>2. Capital-raising efforts are likely to dilute existing shareholders</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2. 融資努力可能會稀釋現有股東的權益</h2>
</div><p>A second significant risk for IonQ, Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum, and Quantum Computing, Inc. is the very real possibility that they'll need to dilute their shareholders (on numerous occasions) to raise capital and keep the lights on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>IonQ、Rigetti Computing、D-Wave Quantum 和 Quantum Computing, Inc. 面臨的第二個重大風險是它們很可能需要稀釋股東權益（多次）以籌集資金並維持運營。</p>
</div><p>In spite of substantial sales growth potential for all four companies over the next couple of years, they're collectively losing a boatload of money from their operations and burning through what cash they have on their balance sheets. Operating losses through the first six months of 2025 are as follows:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管未來幾年這四家公司都有巨大的銷售增長潛力，但它們在運營中集體虧損嚴重，並且正在消耗其資產負債表上的現金。2025 年前六個月的運營虧損如下：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>IonQ: $236.3 million</li>
<li>Rigetti Computing: $41.5 million</li>
<li>D-Wave Quantum: $37.8 million</li>
<li>Quantum Computing, Inc.: $18.5 million</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>IonQ: 2.363 億美元</li>
<li>Rigetti Computing: 4150 萬美元</li>
<li>D-Wave Quantum: 3780 萬美元</li>
<li>Quantum Computing, Inc.: 1850 萬美元</li>
</ul>
</div><p>With these companies unproven from an operating standpoint, traditional credit and debt solutions may be limited. In other words, issuing stock and increasing their outstanding share count may be the only surefire method of raising capital in the coming years, which would be expected to adversely impact shareholders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於這些公司在運營方面尚未得到驗證，傳統的信貸和債務解決方案可能會受到限制。換句話説，發行股票並增加其流通股數量可能是未來幾年籌集資金的唯一可靠方法，這預計會對股東產生不利影響。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzc0NTQvbWFnbmlmaXlpbmctZ2xhc3MtZmluYW5jaWFsLW5ld3NwYXBlci1tYXJrZXQtZGF0YS1zdG9ja3MtZWNvbm9teS1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F837454%2Fmagnifiying-glass-financial-newspaper-market-data-stocks-economy-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>3. Historically high valuations can't be justified</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>3. 歷史高估值無法得到合理解釋</h2>
</div><p>If you think the stock market is historically pricey, take a closer look at Wall Street's pure-play quantum computing stocks!</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你認為股市歷史上價格過高，那就更仔細看看華爾街的量子計算純粹股票！</p>
</div><p>Keeping in mind that &#34;value&#34; is a subjective term with no perfect blueprint on Wall Street, the time-tested price-to-sales (P/S) ratio leaves little room for error or ground to stand on when attempting to justify the existing valuations of IonQ, Rigetti, D-Wave, and Quantum Computing, Inc.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>請記住，“價值” 是一個主觀術語，在華爾街沒有完美的藍圖，經過時間考驗的市盈率（P/S）比率在試圖證明 IonQ、Rigetti、D-Wave 和 Quantum Computing, Inc. 現有估值時幾乎沒有容錯空間。</p>
</div><p>Following the advent and proliferation of the internet, leading businesses, such as <strong>Cisco Systems</strong>, <strong>Amazon</strong>, and <strong>Microsoft</strong>, peaked with trailing-12-month (TTM) P/S ratios in roughly the 30 to 40 range. Historical precedent has repeatedly shown than P/S ratios of 30 or greater aren't well tolerated or sustainable on Wall Street.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在互聯網的出現和普及之後，領先企業如 <strong>Cisco Systems</strong>、<strong>Amazon</strong> 和 <strong>Microsoft</strong> 的過去 12 個月（TTM）P/S 比率大約在 30 到 40 之間達到峯值。歷史先例一再表明，P/S 比率達到 30 或更高在華爾街並不被寬容或可持續。</p>
</div><p>On a TTM basis, the stock market's quantum computing darlings are sporting respective P/S ratios of (rounded to the nearest whole number):</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 TTM 基礎上，股市的量子計算寵兒的 P/S 比率（四捨五入到最接近的整數）分別為：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>IonQ: 308</li>
<li>Rigetti Computing: 1,406</li>
<li>D-Wave Quantum: 379</li>
<li>Quantum Computing, Inc.: 8,965</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>IonQ: 308</li>
<li>Rigetti Computing: 1,406</li>
<li>D-Wave Quantum: 379</li>
<li>Quantum Computing, Inc.: 8,965</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Even if we look at Wall Street's consensus sales estimates for 2029, four years from now, we're still talking about projected P/S ratios of 30 to 90, which is historically unsustainable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使我們查看華爾街對 2029 年的共識銷售預期，四年後，我們仍在談論預計的 P/S 比率在 30 到 90 之間，這在歷史上是不可持續的。</p>
</div><h2>4. The deep pockets of the &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; are an undeniable threat</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>4. “七大奇蹟” 的深厚資金是一個不可否認的威脅</h2>
</div><p>The fourth and final monumental risk for quantum computing's Fab 4 pure-play stocks is the Mag 7.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>量子計算的 Fab 4 純粹股票面臨的第四個也是最後一個重大風險是 Mag 7。</p>
</div><p>Wall Street's &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; stocks represent its most influential businesses in AI, cloud computing, and advertising, among other ventures. These are seven of the 10 U.S.-traded stocks to have ever reached the trillion-dollar market cap plateau. Most importantly, with the exception of <strong>Tesla</strong> in recent quarters, the group's members are all generating boatloads of operating cash flow. So much, in fact, that mammoth share buyback programs and/or dividend payments have become commonplace.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>華爾街的 “七大巨頭” 股票代表了其在人工智能、雲計算和廣告等多個領域中最具影響力的企業。這七隻股票是迄今為止在美國交易的 10 只市值達到萬億美元的股票之一。最重要的是，除了 <strong>特斯拉</strong> 在最近幾個季度的表現外，該集團的成員都在產生大量的運營現金流。實際上，鉅額的股票回購計劃和/或分紅支付已經變得司空見慣。</p>
</div><p>Currently, Amazon's quantum computing service Braket is giving clients access to specialized computers from IonQ and Rigetti Computing. But it seems unrealistic to expect Amazon and its Mag 7 peers to outsource their quantum computing infrastructure needs when they have more capital than they know what to do with and a desire to be the on the leading edge of every next-big-thing innovation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，亞馬遜的量子計算服務 Braket 正在為客户提供來自 IonQ 和 Rigetti Computing 的專業計算機。但考慮到亞馬遜及其七大巨頭同行擁有比他們知道如何使用的更多資本，並且希望在每一個下一個重大創新中處於領先地位，期待他們外包量子計算基礎設施的需求似乎不太現實。</p>
</div><p>While there's little doubt that IonQ, Rigetti, D-Wave, and Quantum Computing, Inc. have first-mover advantages within this arena, the considerably deeper pockets and influence of Mag 7 companies give them a longer-term edge.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管 IonQ、Rigetti、D-Wave 和 Quantum Computing, Inc.在這一領域毫無疑問擁有先發優勢，但七大巨頭公司的資金實力和影響力使他們在長期內佔據了更大的優勢。</p>
</div>

超越炒作：IonQ、Rigetti Computing 和 D-Wave Quantum 這三家量子計算純粹公司的四大風險