<p>要點：</p>
<ul>
<li>LVMH 銷售迴歸增長後奢侈品行業股票上漲</li>
<li>LVMH 第三季度銷售增長 1%，中國市場改善</li>
<li>LVMH 首席財務官警告第四季度經濟逆風依然存在</li>
</ul>
<p>作者：Mimosa Spencer, Mateusz Rabiega 和 Alun John</p>
<p>週三，LVMH 的股票在中國需求改善的跡象下迎來了二十多年來的最佳表現，這也推動了整個行業的反彈，使歐洲奢侈品股票的估值增加了近 800 億美元。</p>
<p>這家全球頂級奢侈品集團擁有從路易威登手袋到莫埃香檳等多個品牌，在報告了超出預期的第三季度銷售後，股價一度上漲 14%，有望創下自 2001 年以來的最大單日漲幅。</p>
<p>其競爭對手，包括愛馬仕、開雲、瑞士歷峯、博柏利和 Moncler，股價上漲了 5% 到 9% 不等，投資者對行業走出兩年低迷的希望增強。</p>
<p>DWS 的股票投資組合經理 Stefan Bauknecht 表示：“銷售數據確實讓投資者感到驚喜，可能會保持該行業股價的上漲勢頭。”</p>
<p>預計行業整體將有更好的業績</p>
<p>LVMH 由法國億萬富翁 Bernard Arnault 控制，報告的季度銷售增長代表了該公司今年的第一個增長季度，是時尚、酒類和珠寶的風向標。</p>
<p>根據路透社的計算，這一增長推動了 STOXX 歐洲奢侈品 10 指數（.STXLUXP）中公司的市值增加了約 800 億美元，超過了 2024 年初該行業的最後一次大規模購買潮。</p>
<p>奢侈品行業的股票在最近幾周開始獲得一些關注，市場預期全面的管理和創意改革將會取得成效。</p>
<p>LVMH 的關鍵時尚和皮革製品部門，涵蓋路易威登和迪奧，佔集團利潤的三分之二以上，雖然較上季度有所改善，但銷售同比仍下降 2%。</p>
<p>該集團表示，中國大陸的銷售，作為該行業的傳統增長動力，已轉為正增長，消費者對新店體驗反應良好，例如路易威登在 6 月開設的船形精品店。來自中國遊客的銷售也有所改善，但同比仍為負增長。</p>
<p>中國消費者對奢侈品的需求受到房地產危機的抑制，加上貿易戰和美國市場經濟不確定性對整體行業的影響，進一步加劇了行業的低迷。</p>
<p>根據摩根士丹利的估計，中國消費者佔全球奢侈品銷售的約三分之一，在 2000 年至 2019 年間推動了約 60% 的行業增長。</p>
<p>迴歸增長讓投資者感到安心</p>
<p>第三季度的銷售數據令人安心，愛德蒙德·德·羅斯柴爾德的歐洲股票基金經理 Ariane Hayate 表示，指出了路易威登等 “特有” 因素的改善，推動了中國的增長。</p>
<p>去年，亞洲（不包括日本，主要由中國主導）的銷售佔 LVMH 年營業額的 28%。</p>
<p>然而，LVMH 首席財務官 Cecile Cabanis 在週二警告，經濟不確定性和不利的匯率將繼續影響其第四季度的業務。</p>
<p>瑞銀預計該行業明年的有機銷售增長為 4%，預計只有在 2026 年下半年才會加速，新設計師的系列將在第二季度開始進入商店。</p>
<p>（$1 = 0.8602 歐元）</p>

路易威登(ADR)

<p>LVMH 的股價在報告第三季度銷售增長 1% 後飆升 14%，這一增長得益於中國需求的改善，標誌着今年的第一個增長季度。這一漲幅為歐洲奢侈品股票增加了近 800 億美元，競爭對手如愛馬仕和開雲也出現了上漲。儘管銷售表現積極，LVMH 的首席財務官仍對第四季度的經濟逆風表示謹慎。分析師預計奢侈品行業將繼續保持勢頭，瑞銀預測明年有 4% 的有機銷售增長，但對影響業績的不確定性表示謹慎</p>

<p>Key points:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>要點：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Luxury sector shares rise after LVMH sales return to growth</li>
<li>LVMH Q3 sales up 1% with improvement in China</li>
<li>LVMH CFO cautions economic headwinds remain in Q4</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>LVMH 銷售迴歸增長後奢侈品行業股票上漲</li>
<li>LVMH 第三季度銷售增長 1%，中國市場改善</li>
<li>LVMH 首席財務官警告第四季度經濟逆風依然存在</li>
</ul>
</div><p>By Mimosa Spencer, Mateusz Rabiega and Alun John</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Mimosa Spencer, Mateusz Rabiega 和 Alun John</p>
</div><p>LVMH shares  had their best day in over two decades on Wednesday following signs of improved demand in China, which also drove a wider sector rally that added nearly $80 billion to European luxury stocks' valuations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週三，LVMH 的股票在中國需求改善的跡象下迎來了二十多年來的最佳表現，這也推動了整個行業的反彈，使歐洲奢侈品股票的估值增加了近 800 億美元。</p>
</div><p>The world's top luxury group, which owns brands ranging from Louis Vuitton bags to Moet champagne, soared as much as 14% and was on track for its biggest daily gain since 2001, after reporting better-than-expected third-quarter sales, driven by improved demand in China, a day earlier.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這家全球頂級奢侈品集團擁有從路易威登手袋到莫埃香檳等多個品牌，在報告了超出預期的第三季度銷售後，股價一度上漲 14%，有望創下自 2001 年以來的最大單日漲幅。</p>
</div><p>Its rivals, including Hermes , Kering , Richemont , Burberry  and Moncler , gained between 5% and 9% on investor hopes that the industry is pulling out of its two-year slump.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其競爭對手，包括愛馬仕、開雲、瑞士歷峯、博柏利和 Moncler，股價上漲了 5% 到 9% 不等，投資者對行業走出兩年低迷的希望增強。</p>
</div><p>The sales figures &#34;indeed surprised investors positively and are likely to keep the sector's share price momentum alive,&#34; said Stefan Bauknecht, equity portfolio manager at DWS.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>DWS 的股票投資組合經理 Stefan Bauknecht 表示：“銷售數據確實讓投資者感到驚喜，可能會保持該行業股價的上漲勢頭。”</p>
</div><p>BETTER RESULTS EXPECTED SECTOR-WIDE</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>預計行業整體將有更好的業績</p>
</div><p>The quarterly sales rise reported by LVMH, controlled by French billionaire Bernard Arnault, represents the first quarter of growth this year for the company, a bellwether spanning fashion, alcohol and jewellery.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>LVMH 由法國億萬富翁 Bernard Arnault 控制，報告的季度銷售增長代表了該公司今年的第一個增長季度，是時尚、酒類和珠寶的風向標。</p>
</div><p>It helped spur a rally that added around $80 billion to the market capitalisation of firms in the STOXX Europe Luxury 10 index (.STXLUXP), according to Reuters calculations, outpacing the last big buying spree for the sector in early 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據路透社的計算，這一增長推動了 STOXX 歐洲奢侈品 10 指數（.STXLUXP）中公司的市值增加了約 800 億美元，超過了 2024 年初該行業的最後一次大規模購買潮。</p>
</div><p>Luxury sector shares had begun getting some traction in recent weeks, with expectations that sweeping management and creative overhauls will bear fruit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>奢侈品行業的股票在最近幾周開始獲得一些關注，市場預期全面的管理和創意改革將會取得成效。</p>
</div><p>LVMH's key fashion and leather goods division, home to Louis Vuitton and Dior, which accounts for over two-thirds of the group's profit, improved from the previous quarter but sales continued to decline, down 2%, year-on-year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>LVMH 的關鍵時尚和皮革製品部門，涵蓋路易威登和迪奧，佔集團利潤的三分之二以上，雖然較上季度有所改善，但銷售同比仍下降 2%。</p>
</div><p>The group said that sales in mainland China, a traditional growth driver for the sector, turned positive, and that shoppers were responding well to new store experiences, such as Louis Vuitton's ship-shaped boutique in Shanghai that opened in June. Sales from travelling Chinese also improved, but remained negative year-on-year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該集團表示，中國大陸的銷售，作為該行業的傳統增長動力，已轉為正增長，消費者對新店體驗反應良好，例如路易威登在 6 月開設的船形精品店。來自中國遊客的銷售也有所改善，但同比仍為負增長。</p>
</div><p>Chinese appetite for luxury goods has been dampened by a property crisis, compounding overall gloom in the sector, which has also been buffeted by the impact of the trade war and economic uncertainty in its other key market, the United States.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中國消費者對奢侈品的需求受到房地產危機的抑制，加上貿易戰和美國市場經濟不確定性對整體行業的影響，進一步加劇了行業的低迷。</p>
</div><p>Chinese nationals, who account for around a third of luxury sales globally, drove about 60% of the industry growth between 2000 and 2019, according to estimates from Morgan Stanley.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據摩根士丹利的估計，中國消費者佔全球奢侈品銷售的約三分之一，在 2000 年至 2019 年間推動了約 60% 的行業增長。</p>
</div><p>RETURN TO GROWTH REASSURES INVESTORS</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>迴歸增長讓投資者感到安心</p>
</div><p>Third-quarter sales were reassuring, said Ariane Hayate, European equity fund manager at Edmond de Rothschild, citing improvements from &#34;idiosyncratic&#34; elements, such as Louis Vuitton's initiatives driving growth in China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第三季度的銷售數據令人安心，愛德蒙德·德·羅斯柴爾德的歐洲股票基金經理 Ariane Hayate 表示，指出了路易威登等 “特有” 因素的改善，推動了中國的增長。</p>
</div><p>Sales in Asia, excluding Japan and dominated by China, accounted for 28% of LVMH's annual turnover last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>去年，亞洲（不包括日本，主要由中國主導）的銷售佔 LVMH 年營業額的 28%。</p>
</div><p>However, LVMH Chief Financial Officer Cecile Cabanis warned on Tuesday economic uncertainty and unfavourable exchange rates would continue to affect its business in the fourth quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，LVMH 首席財務官 Cecile Cabanis 在週二警告，經濟不確定性和不利的匯率將繼續影響其第四季度的業務。</p>
</div><p>UBS, which forecasts 4% organic sales growth next year for the sector, expects an acceleration only in the second half of 2026, with collections from new designers entering stores starting in the second quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>瑞銀預計該行業明年的有機銷售增長為 4%，預計只有在 2026 年下半年才會加速，新設計師的系列將在第二季度開始進入商店。</p>
</div><p>($1 = 0.8602 euros)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（$1 = 0.8602 歐元）</p>
</div>

隨着中國前景的改善，路易威登 (ADR) 推動了 800 億美元的奢侈品市場反彈