<p><strong>蘋果</strong>(AAPL -0.64%) 無疑為其長期股東提供了改變生活的回報。公司的創新能力和強大的品牌是其業績背後的關鍵因素。</p>
<p>但這場盛宴是否結束了？蘋果今年遇到了一些阻力，特別是與關税和特朗普總統的貿易戰有關。股票受到了影響，考慮到其市值為 3.5 萬億美元，一些人認為這家 iPhone 製造商未來的上漲空間有限。</p>
<p>然而，查看一些先例以及蘋果自身的業務，可以幫助我們更清晰地瞭解情況。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzc1MjkvcGVyc29uLXVzaW5nLWEtc21hcnRwaG9uZS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzc1MjkvcGVyc29uLXVzaW5nLWEtc21hcnRwaG9uZS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>蘋果曾經克服過這些困難</h2>
<p>無論是由於關税的潛在影響還是 iPhone 增長放緩，蘋果之前都曾見證並克服過此類障礙。</p>
<p>在特朗普第一次擔任總統期間，關税的威脅也曾存在，儘管可能沒有現在這麼嚴重。2019 年 1 月 3 日，蘋果因中國 iPhone 銷量疲軟而下調指引，股票下跌約 10%，部分原因是特朗普的貿易戰。2019 年 8 月 5 日，特朗普宣佈對中國進口商品徵收關税後，蘋果股價下跌了 5%。</p>
<p>在這兩種情況下，蘋果都能夠迅速反彈。股票在這兩次重大的一日市場損失後超越了市場。那時，蘋果通過與政府談判，能夠在一定程度上規避關税，避免或至少推遲對其進口商品的懲罰性關税。</p>
<p>關於中國 iPhone 銷量放緩，公司採取了多管齊下的策略，包括略微降價。結果是：蘋果成功應對了這些障礙，財務業績依然強勁，並且在隨後的幾年中如往常一樣超越了市場。</p>
<h2>未來在於訂閲業務</h2>
<p>在將過去應用於未來時，通常需要注意一些警告，尤其是這裏存在一些重要的差異。例如，特朗普的關税這次更加激進。而且投資者也擔心這家科技巨頭在人工智能（AI）競賽中落後。</p>
<p>儘管如此，關於蘋果如何應對以往困境的一個重要觀點是，該公司具有高度的適應性。它宣佈將在未來四年內進行 6000 億美元的本地製造投資，以重新贏得特朗普的青睞。</p>
<p>此外，公司還希望增加對人工智能的投資並吸引該領域的人才。蘋果接近收購 PromptAI，這是一家人工智能初創公司，其旗艦應用通過智能活動檢測功能增強家庭安全攝像頭的能力。PromptAI 在該領域擁有顯著的人物，包括其創始人 Tete Xiao，他在該領域擁有博士學位並有學術發表。</p>
<p>即使這筆收購未能達成，蘋果在過去 12 個月內產生了 962 億美元的自由現金流，並有能力收購更多的人工智能人才。</p>
<p>該公司通常不會急於推出新產品或功能。蘋果的優勢在於其能夠對現有技術進行創新性調整並贏得消費者的青睞，這一點它已經多次成功實現。隨着超過 20 億活躍設備的龐大且不斷增長的用户基礎，公司只需幾次成功就能對其財務業績產生重大影響。此外，蘋果的未來在於其服務部門。</p>
<p>該公司擁有超過 10 億個付費訂閲。推出新服務，無論是否與人工智能相關，都應使公司能夠增加這一可預測的高利潤率的經常性收入來源。從長遠來看，這將減少蘋果對關税甚至硬件銷售的依賴。剩下的將是一個龐大的用户基礎，為客户的日常活動提供廣泛的訂閲基礎，從新聞和電視到健康和支付。</p>
<p>這裏的機會巨大，使得儘管面臨阻力，蘋果的前景依然吸引人。歷史告訴我們，這家公司能夠克服這些困難。蘋果今天所做的舉措表明，它有很大的機會能夠克服這些挑戰。</p>

蘋果

2 倍做多 AAPL ETF - GraniteShares

蘋果每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

蘋果每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

AAPX

AAPY

APLY

<p>蘋果今年面臨了一些挑戰，包括關税和貿易戰，這引發了人們對其增長的擔憂。儘管過去曾因 iPhone 銷量疲軟而導致股價下跌，蘋果歷史上一直能夠反彈。該公司正在通過投資本地製造和人工智能來適應，並計劃收購人工智能初創公司 PromptAI。蘋果擁有超過十億的付費訂閲和強勁的現金流，旨在增強其服務部門，減少對硬件銷售的依賴。總體而言，歷史上的韌性和戰略舉措表明，蘋果未來的前景樂觀</p>

<p><strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL -0.64%) has undeniably provided life-changing returns to its long-term shareholders. The company's innovative streak and powerful brand have been key factors behind its performance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>蘋果</strong>(AAPL -0.64%) 無疑為其長期股東提供了改變生活的回報。公司的創新能力和強大的品牌是其業績背後的關鍵因素。</p>
</div><p>But is the party over for the tech giant? Apple has encountered some headwinds this year, particularly tied to tariffs and President Trump's trade wars. The stock has suffered, and considering it's worth $3.5 trillion, some see little upside ahead for the iPhone maker.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但這場盛宴是否結束了？蘋果今年遇到了一些阻力，特別是與關税和特朗普總統的貿易戰有關。股票受到了影響，考慮到其市值為 3.5 萬億美元，一些人認為這家 iPhone 製造商未來的上漲空間有限。</p>
</div><p>However, looking at some precedents, as well as Apple's own business, can help paint a clearer picture.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，查看一些先例以及蘋果自身的業務，可以幫助我們更清晰地瞭解情況。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzc1MjkvcGVyc29uLXVzaW5nLWEtc21hcnRwaG9uZS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F837529%2Fperson-using-a-smartphone.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Apple has survived these troubles before</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>蘋果曾經克服過這些困難</h2>
</div><p>Whether it's due to the potential impact of tariffs or slowing iPhone growth, Apple has seen and overcome obstacles of this kind before.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>無論是由於關税的潛在影響還是 iPhone 增長放緩，蘋果之前都曾見證並克服過此類障礙。</p>
</div><p>During Donald Trump's first presidency, the threat of tariffs was also present, though perhaps not as much as it is now. On Jan. 3, 2019, Apple's stock dropped by about 10% after the company lowered its guidance because of weak iPhone sales volume in China, partly resulting from Trump's trade wars. And On Aug. 5, 2019, Apple's shares fell by 5% after Trump announced tariffs on Chinese-imported goods.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在特朗普第一次擔任總統期間，關税的威脅也曾存在，儘管可能沒有現在這麼嚴重。2019 年 1 月 3 日，蘋果因中國 iPhone 銷量疲軟而下調指引，股票下跌約 10%，部分原因是特朗普的貿易戰。2019 年 8 月 5 日，特朗普宣佈對中國進口商品徵收關税後，蘋果股價下跌了 5%。</p>
</div><p>In both cases, Apple was able to rebound with flying colors. The stock has beaten the market following these two significant one-day market losses. Apple was, at the time, able to get around tariffs somewhat by negotiating with the administration to avoid -- or at least delay -- punitive duties on its imports.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這兩種情況下，蘋果都能夠迅速反彈。股票在這兩次重大的一日市場損失後超越了市場。那時，蘋果通過與政府談判，能夠在一定程度上規避關税，避免或至少推遲對其進口商品的懲罰性關税。</p>
</div><p>Regarding the slowdown in iPhone sales in China, the company adopted a multipronged strategy that included slightly cutting prices. The result: Apple managed these roadblocks just fine, its financial results remained strong, and it crushed the market, as per its habit, in the years that followed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>關於中國 iPhone 銷量放緩，公司採取了多管齊下的策略，包括略微降價。結果是：蘋果成功應對了這些障礙，財務業績依然強勁，並且在隨後的幾年中如往常一樣超越了市場。</p>
</div><h2>The future is in the subscription business</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>未來在於訂閲業務</h2>
</div><p>The usual caveats regarding applying the past to the future are worth keeping in mind, especially since there are some important differences here. Trump's tariffs are even more aggressive this time around, for instance. And investors are also worried that the tech leader is falling behind in the artificial intelligence (AI) race.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在將過去應用於未來時，通常需要注意一些警告，尤其是這裏存在一些重要的差異。例如，特朗普的關税這次更加激進。而且投資者也擔心這家科技巨頭在人工智能（AI）競賽中落後。</p>
</div><p>Even so, one of the most important points to highlight about how Apple has navigated struggles before is that the company is highly adaptable. It announced local manufacturing efforts, amounting to $600 billion over the next four years, in a move to get back on Trump's good side.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，關於蘋果如何應對以往困境的一個重要觀點是，該公司具有高度的適應性。它宣佈將在未來四年內進行 6000 億美元的本地製造投資，以重新贏得特朗普的青睞。</p>
</div><p>Elsewhere, the company is looking to boost AI investments and attract talent in the field. Apple is close to acquiring PromptAI, an AI startup whose flagship app enhances home security cameras through smart activity detection features. PromptAI features notable names in the field, including its founder, Tete Xiao, who holds a Ph.D. in the field and has published academically.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，公司還希望增加對人工智能的投資並吸引該領域的人才。蘋果接近收購 PromptAI，這是一家人工智能初創公司，其旗艦應用通過智能活動檢測功能增強家庭安全攝像頭的能力。PromptAI 在該領域擁有顯著的人物，包括其創始人 Tete Xiao，他在該領域擁有博士學位並有學術發表。</p>
</div><p>Even if this acquisition falls through, Apple has generated $96.2 billion in free cash flow over the trailing-12-month period and has the means to buy out more AI talent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使這筆收購未能達成，蘋果在過去 12 個月內產生了 962 億美元的自由現金流，並有能力收購更多的人工智能人才。</p>
</div><p>The company generally doesn't rush to launch new products or features. Apple's strength has been its ability to add innovative tweaks to existing technologies and win over consumers, something it has done several times with smashing success. And with a vast and growing installed base of over two billion active devices, the company needs just a few successes to make a meaningful impact on its financial results. Furthermore, Apple's future is in its service segment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該公司通常不會急於推出新產品或功能。蘋果的優勢在於其能夠對現有技術進行創新性調整並贏得消費者的青睞，這一點它已經多次成功實現。隨着超過 20 億活躍設備的龐大且不斷增長的用户基礎，公司只需幾次成功就能對其財務業績產生重大影響。此外，蘋果的未來在於其服務部門。</p>
</div><p>The company has more than a billion paid subscriptions. Launching new services, whether related to AI or not, should allow the company to increase this predictable, high-margin source of recurring revenue. Over the long run, this will decrease Apple's exposure to tariffs and even hardware sales. What should remain is a massive installed base that serves as the basis for subscriptions across a wide range of everyday activities for its customers, from news and TV to health and payments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該公司擁有超過 10 億個付費訂閲。推出新服務，無論是否與人工智能相關，都應使公司能夠增加這一可預測的高利潤率的經常性收入來源。從長遠來看，這將減少蘋果對關税甚至硬件銷售的依賴。剩下的將是一個龐大的用户基礎，為客户的日常活動提供廣泛的訂閲基礎，從新聞和電視到健康和支付。</p>
</div><p>The opportunities here are massive, making Apple's prospects attractive despite the headwinds it has encountered. History tells us the company can overcome them. The moves Apple is making today suggest there is a good chance it <em>will</em> overcome them.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這裏的機會巨大，使得儘管面臨阻力，蘋果的前景依然吸引人。歷史告訴我們，這家公司能夠克服這些困難。蘋果今天所做的舉措表明，它有很大的機會能夠克服這些挑戰。</p>
</div>

Is Apple's Growth Story Over? Here's What History Says.

- 蘋果公司面臨關税和貿易戰的挑戰，股價受到影響。  
- 過去，蘋果成功應對類似困境，展現出高度適應性。  
- 未來，蘋果將重點發展服務業務和人工智能，前景依然樂觀。

蘋果的增長故事是否已經結束？歷史告訴了我們什麼