<p>毫無疑問，<strong>英偉達公司</strong> (NASDAQ:NVDA) 繼續成為人工智能這一非凡範式轉變的象徵。在過去六個月中，NVDA 股票上漲了近 74%。然而，自大約八月初以來，該股票基本上停滯不前。大多數人可能會將其視為警告，但從統計上看，投資者往往會在下跌時買入。因此，這一停滯可以説為看漲的逆勢投資者提供了一個誘人的機會。</p>
<p>當然，所有參與交易的人都必須意識到風險。儘管英偉達的財務業績表現極為強勁，但人們也越來越擔心它是否能夠保持這種變化莫測的速度。在某個時刻，收益可能不再值得付出——這可能導致對 NVDA 股票溢價的負面調整。</p>
<p>更根本的是，英偉達的競爭對手正在發出聲音。特別是，<strong>超威半導體公司</strong> (NASDAQ:AMD) 與 <strong>OpenAI</strong> 的里程碑式交易讓華爾街沸騰。誠然，這一合作關係存在執行方面的警示。然而，<strong>Dan Ives</strong> 來自 Wedbush Securities 指出，市場 “仍然嚴重低估了對人工智能革命的支出。”</p>
<p>如果是這樣，我們可以預期這個領域會變得擁擠——這可能再次迫使對預期進行調整。</p>
<p>不過，也有可能 NVDA 股票的放緩已經反映了這些和其他阻力。如果是這樣，耐心的投資者可能不需要擔心，因為該證券已經顯示出上升的傾向。</p>
<p>更好的是，我們可以利用 NVDA 股票在相對壓力下的行為傾向來制定一個概率上有利的期權交易。</p>
<h2>利用數據科學隔離 NVDA 股票的行為模式</h2>
<p>如前所述，NVDA 股票具有上升的傾向。根據 2019 年 1 月的數據，持有多頭頭寸在 10 周後獲利的概率相當高，達到 73.4%。此外，在基線或綜合條件下，10 週迴報的中位價格形成了正態分佈或鐘形曲線。</p>
<p>假設錨定價格為 $179.83（週三收盤價），大多數中位價格結果預計將在 $170 到 $212 之間，價格大部分集中在 $190 到 $200 之間。除非你在預計的時間段內有真正令人信服的理由看跌，否則經驗上合理的想法是考慮一個看漲策略。</p>
<p>也就是説，市場不能指望始終沿着其數學穩態趨勢線交易。換句話説，我們通過 GARCH（廣義自迴歸條件異方差）研究知道，近期波動對當前市場行為的影響遠比很久以前出現的催化劑更為強大。現在使 NVDA 股票如此引人注目的是，它的即時狀態正受到壓力。</p>
<p>根據週三的收盤價，NVDA 處於 4-6-D 結構：四周上漲，六週下跌，整體呈下降軌跡。現在，這一序列並沒有什麼特別之處。但我們可以將這個量化信號標記，以瞭解 NVDA 在相對於基線條件下如何應對壓力。</p>
<p>你知道科學家如何標記大白鯊以研究它們的遷徙模式嗎？顯然，海洋水域非常廣闊，因此如果沒有標記，科學家們只能猜測（即技術分析）。好吧，我們遵循的是完全相同的概念，只不過我們標記的是市場序列，並分析它們相對於數學穩態的遷徙模式。</p>
<p>找到條件模式與穩態趨勢之間的正向不對稱，你可能會發現一個定價不當的交易機會。</p>
<p>這似乎正是 NVDA 股票的情況。當標記 4-6-D 序列時，我們可以觀察到 10 週迴報的中位價格預計會聚集在 $196 水平。換句話説，向上的概率仍然看漲，但特定幅度的向上概率更為可靠。</p>
<h2>保守還是激進？</h2>
<p>隨着英偉達定於 11 月 19 日披露其財報，我會關注 11 月 14 日的期權鏈。這樣，我們可以依靠買新聞、賣謠言的情緒，這種情緒可以説比典型的財報披露混亂更可預測。處理完這一點後，有兩個看漲的買權價差值得考慮。</p>
<p>第一個是更保守的，即 185/190 看漲價差（同樣，截止日期為 11 月 14 日）。目前，這筆交易的盈虧平衡點為 $187.20。如果 NVDA 股票在到期時突破第二個行使價 ($190)，最大回報超過 127%。</p>
<p>第二筆交易，即 190/195 看漲價差，更具激進性，但仍然合理，基於與 4-6-D 序列相關的預期概率路徑。如果 NVDA 股票突破這一對的較高行使價，當前最大回報超過 194%。不過，盈虧平衡點為 $191.70，較錨定價高出 6.6%。</p>
<p>底線是，押注於異常高的證券總是存在高風險。然而，如果你相信人工智能的故事，英偉達正在給你一個罕見的買入信號，而沒有人談論。</p>
<p><strong><em>本文中表達的觀點和看法僅代表個人作者的觀點，並不一定反映 Benzinga 的觀點。Benzinga 對本文提供的任何信息的準確性或可靠性不承擔責任。本文僅供信息參考，不應被誤解為投資建議或買賣任何證券的推薦。讀者被要求不要依賴本文中的觀點或信息，並在做出投資決策之前進行自己的盡職調查。</em></strong></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>期權角落：超威半導體大幅上漲，但數學表明仍有增長空間</strong></li>
</ul>
<p><em>圖片來源：Shutterstock</em></p>

英偉達

2 倍做多英偉達 ETF - GraniteShares

南方兩倍做多英偉達

南方兩倍做空英偉達

英偉達期權收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

1 倍做空英偉達 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

半導體 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>英偉達公司（NASDAQ:NVDA）在過去六個月中股價上漲了近 74%，但自八月以來已停滯不前。儘管對維持這一增長的擔憂存在，分析師認為這可能是一個買入機會。由於財報將於 11 月 19 日公佈，提出了兩種看漲期權策略：一種是保守的 185/190 看漲價差，另一種是更激進的 190/195 看漲價差，均針對潛在的價格上漲。建議投資者考慮在像英偉達這樣高表現股票交易時所面臨的風險</p>

<p>Undeniably, <strong>Nvidia Corp</strong> (NASDAQ:NVDA) continues to be emblematic of the extraordinary paradigm shift that is artificial intelligence. In the trailing six months, NVDA stock has gained nearly 74%. However, since around early August, the equity has largely stagnated. That might be viewed as a warning by most, but statistically, investors tend to buy the dips. As such, the lull arguably presents an enticing opportunity for bullish contrarians.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毫無疑問，<strong>英偉達公司</strong> (NASDAQ:NVDA) 繼續成為人工智能這一非凡範式轉變的象徵。在過去六個月中，NVDA 股票上漲了近 74%。然而，自大約八月初以來，該股票基本上停滯不前。大多數人可能會將其視為警告，但從統計上看，投資者往往會在下跌時買入。因此，這一停滯可以説為看漲的逆勢投資者提供了一個誘人的機會。</p>
</div><p>Of course, everyone who enters into the trade must be aware of the risks. While Nvidia has had an incredibly strong run of financial results, there are also rising concerns about whether it can keep up this mercurial pace. At some point, the juice may no longer be worth the squeeze — and that could lead to a negative readjustment of the premium attached to NVDA stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當然，所有參與交易的人都必須意識到風險。儘管英偉達的財務業績表現極為強勁，但人們也越來越擔心它是否能夠保持這種變化莫測的速度。在某個時刻，收益可能不再值得付出——這可能導致對 NVDA 股票溢價的負面調整。</p>
</div><p>More fundamentally, Nvidia's competitors are making noise. In particular, <strong>Advanced Micro Devices Inc</strong> (NASDAQ:AMD) got Wall Street buzzing with its landmark deal with <strong>OpenAI</strong>. Granted, there are execution caveats tied to the partnership. Nevertheless, <strong>Dan Ives</strong> of Wedbush Securities remarked that the market is &#34;still massively underestimating the spending on the AI revolution.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更根本的是，英偉達的競爭對手正在發出聲音。特別是，<strong>超威半導體公司</strong> (NASDAQ:AMD) 與 <strong>OpenAI</strong> 的里程碑式交易讓華爾街沸騰。誠然，這一合作關係存在執行方面的警示。然而，<strong>Dan Ives</strong> 來自 Wedbush Securities 指出，市場 “仍然嚴重低估了對人工智能革命的支出。”</p>
</div><p>If so, we can expect the arena to get crowded — and that might again force a readjustment of expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果是這樣，我們可以預期這個領域會變得擁擠——這可能再次迫使對預期進行調整。</p>
</div><p>Then again, it's also possible that the slowdown in NVDA stock is already reflecting these and other headwinds. If so, patient investors may not need to worry as the security has demonstrated an upward bias.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不過，也有可能 NVDA 股票的放緩已經反映了這些和其他阻力。如果是這樣，耐心的投資者可能不需要擔心，因為該證券已經顯示出上升的傾向。</p>
</div><p>Even better, we can leverage the behavioral tendencies of NVDA stock when under relative pressure to formulate a probabilistically favorable options trade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更好的是，我們可以利用 NVDA 股票在相對壓力下的行為傾向來制定一個概率上有利的期權交易。</p>
</div><h2>Using Data Science To Isolate Behavioral Patterns In NVDA Stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>利用數據科學隔離 NVDA 股票的行為模式</h2>
</div><p>As mentioned earlier, NVDA stock has an upward bias. Using data from January 2019, the odds that a long position will be profitable 10 weeks out is quite high at 73.4%. Further, the median price of 10-week returns under baseline or aggregate conditions forms a normal distribution or bell curve.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如前所述，NVDA 股票具有上升的傾向。根據 2019 年 1 月的數據，持有多頭頭寸在 10 周後獲利的概率相當高，達到 73.4%。此外，在基線或綜合條件下，10 週迴報的中位價格形成了正態分佈或鐘形曲線。</p>
</div><p>Assuming an anchor price of $179.83 (Wednesday's close), most median price outcomes are projected to range between $170 and $212, with the bulk of prices clustering between $190 and $200. Unless you had a truly compelling reason to be bearish during the projected time period, the empirically sound idea would be to consider a bullish strategy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>假設錨定價格為 $179.83（週三收盤價），大多數中位價格結果預計將在 $170 到 $212 之間，價格大部分集中在 $190 到 $200 之間。除非你在預計的時間段內有真正令人信服的理由看跌，否則經驗上合理的想法是考慮一個看漲策略。</p>
</div><p>That said, the market can't be expected to constantly trade along its mathematical homeostatic trendline. In other words, we know through GARCH (Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) studies that near-term volatility has a much more powerful influence on current market behavior than catalysts that materialized a long time ago. What makes NVDA stock so intriguing right now is that its immediate state is under pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也就是説，市場不能指望始終沿着其數學穩態趨勢線交易。換句話説，我們通過 GARCH（廣義自迴歸條件異方差）研究知道，近期波動對當前市場行為的影響遠比很久以前出現的催化劑更為強大。現在使 NVDA 股票如此引人注目的是，它的即時狀態正受到壓力。</p>
</div><p>Quantitatively through Wednesday's close, NVDA was structured in a 4-6-D formation: four up weeks, six down weeks, with an overall downward trajectory. Now, there's nothing special about this sequence. But we can tag this quant signal to understand how NVDA responds to pressure relative to baseline conditions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據週三的收盤價，NVDA 處於 4-6-D 結構：四周上漲，六週下跌，整體呈下降軌跡。現在，這一序列並沒有什麼特別之處。但我們可以將這個量化信號標記，以瞭解 NVDA 在相對於基線條件下如何應對壓力。</p>
</div><p>You know how scientists tag great white sharks to study their migration patterns? Obviously, ocean waters are massive so without the tagging, scientists would just be guessing (i.e. technical analysis). Well, we're following the exact same concept, except that we're tagging market sequences and analyzing their migration patterns relative to their mathematical homeostasis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你知道科學家如何標記大白鯊以研究它們的遷徙模式嗎？顯然，海洋水域非常廣闊，因此如果沒有標記，科學家們只能猜測（即技術分析）。好吧，我們遵循的是完全相同的概念，只不過我們標記的是市場序列，並分析它們相對於數學穩態的遷徙模式。</p>
</div><p>Find a positive asymmetry between the conditional pattern and the homeostatic trend and you just might have a favorably mispriced trading opportunity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>找到條件模式與穩態趨勢之間的正向不對稱，你可能會發現一個定價不當的交易機會。</p>
</div><p>That seems to be the case for NVDA stock. When tagging the 4-6-D sequence, we can observe that median prices from 10-week returns are projected to cluster around the $196 level. In other words, the probability of upside remains bullish but the likelihood of a specific magnitude of upside is more reliably frequent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這似乎正是 NVDA 股票的情況。當標記 4-6-D 序列時，我們可以觀察到 10 週迴報的中位價格預計會聚集在 $196 水平。換句話説，向上的概率仍然看漲，但特定幅度的向上概率更為可靠。</p>
</div><h2>Go Conservative Or Aggressive?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>保守還是激進？</h2>
</div><p>With Nvidia set to disclose its earnings report on Nov. 19, I would be looking at targeting the Nov. 14 options chain. This way, we can bank on the buy-the-news, sell-the-rumor sentiments, which are arguably more predictable than typical earnings disclosure chaos. With that out of the way, there are two bull call spreads to consider.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着英偉達定於 11 月 19 日披露其財報，我會關注 11 月 14 日的期權鏈。這樣，我們可以依靠買新聞、賣謠言的情緒，這種情緒可以説比典型的財報披露混亂更可預測。處理完這一點後，有兩個看漲的買權價差值得考慮。</p>
</div><p>The first one is more conservative, which is the 185/190 bull call spread (again, expiring Nov. 14). Currently, the breakeven for this trade lands at $187.20. Should NVDA stock rise through the second-leg strike price ($190) at expiration, the maximum payout stands at over 127%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第一個是更保守的，即 185/190 看漲價差（同樣，截止日期為 11 月 14 日）。目前，這筆交易的盈虧平衡點為 $187.20。如果 NVDA 股票在到期時突破第二個行使價 ($190)，最大回報超過 127%。</p>
</div><p>The second trade, the 190/195 bull spread, is more aggressive but still reasonable based on expected probabilistic pathways tied to the 4-6-D sequence. If NVDA stock rises through the higher strike price of the pair, the max payout currently clocks in at over 194%. Breakeven is $191.70, though, which is 6.6% above the anchor.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第二筆交易，即 190/195 看漲價差，更具激進性，但仍然合理，基於與 4-6-D 序列相關的預期概率路徑。如果 NVDA 股票突破這一對的較高行使價，當前最大回報超過 194%。不過，盈虧平衡點為 $191.70，較錨定價高出 6.6%。</p>
</div><p>Bottom line, there are always high risks involved when betting on an exceptionally elevated security. However, if you believe in the AI story, Nvidia is giving you a rare buy signal that no one is talking about.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>底線是，押注於異常高的證券總是存在高風險。然而，如果你相信人工智能的故事，英偉達正在給你一個罕見的買入信號，而沒有人談論。</p>
</div><p><strong><em>The opinions and views expressed in this content are those of the individual author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Benzinga. Benzinga is not responsible for the accuracy or reliability of any information provided herein. This content is for informational purposes only and should not be misconstrued as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Readers are asked not to rely on the opinions or information herein, and encouraged to do their own due diligence before making investing decisions.</em></strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong><em>本文中表達的觀點和看法僅代表個人作者的觀點，並不一定反映 Benzinga 的觀點。Benzinga 對本文提供的任何信息的準確性或可靠性不承擔責任。本文僅供信息參考，不應被誤解為投資建議或買賣任何證券的推薦。讀者被要求不要依賴本文中的觀點或信息，並在做出投資決策之前進行自己的盡職調查。</em></strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Options Corner: Advanced Micro Devices Is Up Big But The Math Suggests There’s More Room For Growth</strong></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>期權角落：超威半導體大幅上漲，但數學表明仍有增長空間</strong></li>
</ul>
</div><p><em>Image: Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>圖片來源：Shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

Options Corner: Nvidia Just Flashed A Rare 'Buy' Signal One Month Ahead Of Earnings

- Nvidia 股價在過去六個月上漲近 74%，但自八月以來停滯不前。  
- 競爭對手 AMD 與 OpenAI 的合作引發市場關注，可能影響 Nvidia 的預期。  
- 投資者可考慮在即將發佈的財報前進行看漲期權交易。

期權專欄：英偉達在財報發佈前一個月剛剛發出了罕見的 “買入” 信號