<p>本週早些時候，華爾街慶祝了基準 <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> 指數當前牛市開始三週年。雖然人工智能（AI）的發展在推動整體市場達到新高方面發揮了關鍵作用，但 AI 並不是目前推動投資者樂觀情緒的唯一顛覆性趨勢。</p>
<p>華爾街和普通投資者對量子計算的前景感到極為興奮，這在四個熱門純量子計算公司的過去 12 個月（TTM）回報中顯而易見：</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>IonQ</strong>(IONQ -9.42%): 上漲 633%。</li>
<li><strong>Rigetti Computing</strong>(RGTI -14.94%): 上漲 6,770%。</li>
<li><strong>D-Wave Quantum</strong>(QBTS -9.67%): 上漲 4,330%。</li>
<li><strong>Quantum Computing, Inc.</strong>(QUBT -11.63%): 上漲 3,040%。</li>
</ul>
<p>雖然這項技術在短時間內為投資者帶來了改變生活的回報，但這四隻量子計算股票也向華爾街發出了明確而不容忽視的警告。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzc5MzAvbnlzZS1mbG9vci10cmFkZXItaW52ZXN0LWJ1eS1zZWxsLW9wdGlvbnMtc3RvY2stZXhjaGFuZ2UtZ2V0dHkucG5nJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzc5MzAvbnlzZS1mbG9vci10cmFkZXItaW52ZXN0LWJ1eS1zZWxsLW9wdGlvbnMtc3RvY2stZXhjaGFuZ2UtZ2V0dHkucG5nJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>為什麼量子計算股票是自麪包切片以來最熱門的事物？</h2>
<p>不必過於技術化，量子計算依賴於量子力學和專用計算機來解決傳統計算機無法處理的複雜問題（至少在我們的生命中是這樣）。</p>
<p>就像互聯網徹底改變了企業對企業和企業對消費者的商業模式一樣，投資者將量子計算視為能夠為多個行業帶來下一次飛躍的技術。例如，在量子計算機上運行的分子相互作用模擬可以迅速縮小藥物開發者在應對難治性和致命疾病時的最佳行動方案。</p>
<p>量子計算機還可以用來破解現有的基於 AI 和機器學習的網絡安全平台，使其更加安全。進一步説，這項技術有潛力加速 AI 算法的學習過程，從而提高 AI 驅動軟件的效率和採用率。</p>
<p>除了這一現實效用的片段外，華爾街和投資者對量子計算日益增長的可尋址機會也充滿興趣。波士頓諮詢集團預計，到 2040 年，量子計算將為全球經濟增加 4,500 億到 8,500 億美元的價值，而在線出版物《量子內幕》則認為，到 2035 年可以創造 1 萬億美元的全球經濟價值。</p>
<p>一些量子計算的純量子公司也在與華爾街一些最具影響力的企業合作。<strong>IonQ</strong> 和 <strong>Rigetti Computing</strong> 的量子計算機均可通過 <strong>Amazon</strong> 的量子計算服務 Braket 訪問。</p>
<p>在勢頭的推動下，<strong>IonQ</strong>、<strong>Rigetti</strong>、<strong>D-Wave</strong> 和 <strong>Quantum Computing, Inc.</strong> 的股票價格飆升。然而，事情可能並不像它們各自的回報所暗示的那樣完美。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzc5MzAvcmVkLWRpY2UtYnV5LXNlbGwtc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtZmluYW5jaWFsLWRhdGEtaW52ZXN0LWJpbGxpb25haXJlLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzc5MzAvcmVkLWRpY2UtYnV5LXNlbGwtc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtZmluYW5jaWFsLWRhdGEtaW52ZXN0LWJpbGxpb25haXJlLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>這份 8.75 億美元的警告不應被投資者忽視</h2>
<p>雖然財報、管理層評論和投資者演示在投資者瞭解公司前景時位於首位，但內部交易活動也可能極為重要。</p>
<p>“內部人士” 是指高層管理人員、公司董事會成員或持有至少 10% 流通股的受益所有者。簡而言之，這些人可能掌握非公開信息，並且應該比任何華爾街分析師或散户投資者更瞭解他們的公司。</p>
<p>上市公司的內部人士必須在進行交易後不超過兩個工作日內向證券交易委員會提交 4 號表格。這包括他們購買自己公司股票、出售股票或甚至行使期權時的情況。上市公司的內部人士必須全面披露。</p>
<p>對過去五年（或自上市以來）內部活動的快速回顧揭示了華爾街量子計算寵兒的投資者的警示故事：</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>IonQ</strong>: 內部人士淨賣出 569,934,078 美元</li>
<li><strong>Rigetti Computing</strong>: 內部人士淨賣出 50,124,972 美元</li>
<li><strong>D-Wave Quantum</strong>: 內部人士淨賣出 221,687,659 美元</li>
<li><strong>Quantum Computing, Inc.</strong>: 內部人士淨賣出 33,245,464 美元</li>
</ul>
<p>在過去五年中，這四家量子計算純量子公司的內部人士共淨賣出了 8.75 億美元的公司股票。</p>
<p>在深入探討之前，讓我在上述數據中引入一點註釋。上市公司的高管和/或董事的薪酬通常以普通股和期權的形式支付。為了滿足聯邦和/或州級税務責任，高管和董事通常會出售股票。</p>
<p>內部人士的賣出並不一定對公司構成致命打擊。出於税務目的出售股票，或為了多樣化投資組合，並不是投資者應該過於擔憂的事情。</p>
<p>另一方面，內部人士購買股票的唯一原因是：他們相信自己的股票會增值。這四家量子計算純量子公司幾乎沒有或根本沒有內部人士購買。<strong>Quantum Computing, Inc.</strong> 沒有內部人士購買，而 <strong>D-Wave Quantum</strong> 的最後一次內部人士購買發生在三年多前！如果內部人士不願意在自己的股票上投資，投資者又為什麼要投資呢？</p>
<p>這種缺乏內部人士購買的情況，與持續的賣出活動相比，使得量子計算股票估值周圍的紅旗更加明顯。</p>
<p>雖然在下一代趨勢的前沿股票以溢價估值交易並不罕見，但量子計算股票的過去 12 個月市銷率（P/S）比率卻高得離譜，且歷史上不可持續。沒有任何一家大型股票能夠維持 30 或更高的過去 12 個月市銷率，而 IonQ、Rigetti Computing、D-Wave Quantum 和 Quantum Computing, Inc.的過去 12 個月市銷率分別為 340、1,796、494 和 10,250！</p>
<p>將這集體 8.75 億美元的淨賣出活動視為華爾街的又一個警告，表明量子計算股票的這種拋物線式上漲是不可持續的。</p>

QBTS

IONQ

RGTI

<p>IonQ、Rigetti Computing、D-Wave Quantum 和 Quantum Computing, Inc. 的股價均出現顯著上漲，回報率分別為 633%、6,770%、4,330% 和 3,040%。然而，內部人士在過去五年中總共出售了 8.75 億美元的股份，這引發了對這些收益可持續性的擔憂。儘管量子計算被視為具有潛在經濟價值的變革性技術，但內部人士缺乏買入的情況對投資者來説意味着需要謹慎</p>

<p>Earlier this week, Wall Street celebrated the three-year anniversary of the start of the current bull market for the benchmark <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>. While the evolution of artificial intelligence (AI) has played a key role in sending the broader market to new heights, AI isn't the only game-changing trend fueling investor optimism at the moment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本週早些時候，華爾街慶祝了基準 <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> 指數當前牛市開始三週年。雖然人工智能（AI）的發展在推動整體市場達到新高方面發揮了關鍵作用，但 AI 並不是目前推動投資者樂觀情緒的唯一顛覆性趨勢。</p>
</div><p>Wall Street and everyday investors are extremely excited about the prospects of quantum computing, which is evident in the trailing-12-month (TTM) returns for four popular pure-plays:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>華爾街和普通投資者對量子計算的前景感到極為興奮，這在四個熱門純量子計算公司的過去 12 個月（TTM）回報中顯而易見：</p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>IonQ</strong>(IONQ -9.42%): up 633%.</li>
<li><strong>Rigetti Computing</strong>(RGTI -14.94%): up 6,770%.</li>
<li><strong>D-Wave Quantum</strong>(QBTS -9.67%): up 4,330%.</li>
<li><strong>Quantum Computing, Inc.</strong>(QUBT -11.63%): up 3,040%.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>IonQ</strong>(IONQ -9.42%): 上漲 633%。</li>
<li><strong>Rigetti Computing</strong>(RGTI -14.94%): 上漲 6,770%。</li>
<li><strong>D-Wave Quantum</strong>(QBTS -9.67%): 上漲 4,330%。</li>
<li><strong>Quantum Computing, Inc.</strong>(QUBT -11.63%): 上漲 3,040%。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>While this technology is delivering life-changing returns to investors in a short time frame, these four quantum computing stocks are also delivering a clear and unmistakable warning to Wall Street.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然這項技術在短時間內為投資者帶來了改變生活的回報，但這四隻量子計算股票也向華爾街發出了明確而不容忽視的警告。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzc5MzAvbnlzZS1mbG9vci10cmFkZXItaW52ZXN0LWJ1eS1zZWxsLW9wdGlvbnMtc3RvY2stZXhjaGFuZ2UtZ2V0dHkucG5nJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F837930%2Fnyse-floor-trader-invest-buy-sell-options-stock-exchange-getty.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Why are quantum computing stocks the hottest thing since sliced bread?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>為什麼量子計算股票是自麪包切片以來最熱門的事物？</h2>
</div><p>Without getting overly technical, quantum computing relies on quantum mechanics and specialized computers to solve complex problems that traditional computers wouldn't be able to do (at least in our lifetime).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不必過於技術化，量子計算依賴於量子力學和專用計算機來解決傳統計算機無法處理的複雜問題（至少在我們的生命中是這樣）。</p>
</div><p>Much like the internet revolutionized business-to-business and business-to-consumer commerce, investors are looking to quantum computing as a technology that can usher in the next leap forward for a variety of industries. For instance, molecular interaction simulations run on quantum computers can rapidly narrow down the best course of action for drug developers when attempting to tackle hard-to-treat and deadly diseases.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就像互聯網徹底改變了企業對企業和企業對消費者的商業模式一樣，投資者將量子計算視為能夠為多個行業帶來下一次飛躍的技術。例如，在量子計算機上運行的分子相互作用模擬可以迅速縮小藥物開發者在應對難治性和致命疾病時的最佳行動方案。</p>
</div><p>Quantum computers can also be used to break existing AI- and machine learning-powered cybersecurity platforms to make them even safer. To build on this point, this technology has the potential to speed up the learning process of AI algorithms, which can enhance the efficiency and adoption of AI-empowered software.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>量子計算機還可以用來破解現有的基於 AI 和機器學習的網絡安全平台，使其更加安全。進一步説，這項技術有潛力加速 AI 算法的學習過程，從而提高 AI 驅動軟件的效率和採用率。</p>
</div><p>Aside from this snippet of real-world utility, Wall Street and investors are intrigued by the growing addressable opportunity for quantum computing. Whereas Boston Consulting Group sees it adding $450 billion to $850 billion in global economic value come 2040, online publication The Quantum Insider believes $1 trillion in worldwide economic value can be created by 2035.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了這一現實效用的片段外，華爾街和投資者對量子計算日益增長的可尋址機會也充滿興趣。波士頓諮詢集團預計，到 2040 年，量子計算將為全球經濟增加 4,500 億到 8,500 億美元的價值，而在線出版物《量子內幕》則認為，到 2035 年可以創造 1 萬億美元的全球經濟價值。</p>
</div><p>A handful of quantum computing pure-plays are working with some of Wall Street's most-influential businesses, as well. Quantum computers from IonQ and Rigetti Computing are both accessible using <strong>Amazon</strong>'s quantum computing service, Braket.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些量子計算的純量子公司也在與華爾街一些最具影響力的企業合作。<strong>IonQ</strong> 和 <strong>Rigetti Computing</strong> 的量子計算機均可通過 <strong>Amazon</strong> 的量子計算服務 Braket 訪問。</p>
</div><p>With momentum on their side, IonQ, Rigetti, D-Wave, and Quantum Computing, Inc. have seen their shares skyrocket. However, things may not be as perfect as their respective returns suggest.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在勢頭的推動下，<strong>IonQ</strong>、<strong>Rigetti</strong>、<strong>D-Wave</strong> 和 <strong>Quantum Computing, Inc.</strong> 的股票價格飆升。然而，事情可能並不像它們各自的回報所暗示的那樣完美。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzc5MzAvcmVkLWRpY2UtYnV5LXNlbGwtc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtZmluYW5jaWFsLWRhdGEtaW52ZXN0LWJpbGxpb25haXJlLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F837930%2Fred-dice-buy-sell-stock-chart-financial-data-invest-billionaire-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>This $875 million warning to Wall Street shouldn't be ignored by investors</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>這份 8.75 億美元的警告不應被投資者忽視</h2>
</div><p>While earnings reports, management commentary, and investor presentations are at the top of the list for investors when learning about a company's prospects, insider trading activity can also be incredibly important.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然財報、管理層評論和投資者演示在投資者瞭解公司前景時位於首位，但內部交易活動也可能極為重要。</p>
</div><p>An &#34;insider&#34; is a high-ranking executive, someone on the company's board, or a beneficial owner who holds at least 10% of outstanding shares. In short, these are folks who may possess non-public information and should know their company better than any Wall Street analyst or retail investor.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“內部人士” 是指高層管理人員、公司董事會成員或持有至少 10% 流通股的受益所有者。簡而言之，這些人可能掌握非公開信息，並且應該比任何華爾街分析師或散户投資者更瞭解他們的公司。</p>
</div><p>Insiders of publicly traded companies are required to file Form 4 with the Securities and Exchange Commission no later than two business days after making a trade. This includes when they're buying shares of their own company, selling stock, or even exercising options. Full disclosure is a requirement for insiders of publicly traded businesses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上市公司的內部人士必須在進行交易後不超過兩個工作日內向證券交易委員會提交 4 號表格。這包括他們購買自己公司股票、出售股票或甚至行使期權時的情況。上市公司的內部人士必須全面披露。</p>
</div><p>A quick roundup of insider activity over the trailing-five-year period (or as long as they've been public) reveals a cautionary tale for investors of Wall Street's quantum computing darlings:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對過去五年（或自上市以來）內部活動的快速回顧揭示了華爾街量子計算寵兒的投資者的警示故事：</p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>IonQ</strong>: $569,934,078 in net-selling by insiders</li>
<li><strong>Rigetti Computing</strong>: $50,124,972 in net-selling by insiders</li>
<li><strong>D-Wave Quantum</strong>: $221,687,659 in net-selling by insiders</li>
<li><strong>Quantum Computing, Inc.</strong>: $33,245,464 in net-selling by insiders</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>IonQ</strong>: 內部人士淨賣出 569,934,078 美元</li>
<li><strong>Rigetti Computing</strong>: 內部人士淨賣出 50,124,972 美元</li>
<li><strong>D-Wave Quantum</strong>: 內部人士淨賣出 221,687,659 美元</li>
<li><strong>Quantum Computing, Inc.</strong>: 內部人士淨賣出 33,245,464 美元</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Collectively, insiders at these four quantum computing pure-plays have sold a net of $875 million of their company's respective shares over the last five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去五年中，這四家量子計算純量子公司的內部人士共淨賣出了 8.75 億美元的公司股票。</p>
</div><p>Before diving deeper, let me introduce a bit of an asterisk into the above data. Compensation for executives and/or directors at publicly traded companies often comes in the form of common stock and options. To satisfy the federal and/or state-level tax liability for this compensation, executives and directors commonly sell stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在深入探討之前，讓我在上述數據中引入一點註釋。上市公司的高管和/或董事的薪酬通常以普通股和期權的形式支付。為了滿足聯邦和/或州級税務責任，高管和董事通常會出售股票。</p>
</div><p>Insider selling isn't necessarily damning to a company. Selling stock for tax purposes, or to diversify an investment portfolio, isn't something that investors should worry about too much.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>內部人士的賣出並不一定對公司構成致命打擊。出於税務目的出售股票，或為了多樣化投資組合，並不是投資者應該過於擔憂的事情。</p>
</div><p>On the other hand, there's only one reason for insiders to buy shares: they believe their stock will increase in value. All four quantum computing pure-plays have seen minimal or nonexistent insider buying. Quantum Computing, Inc. has seen zero insider purchases, while the last insider purchase at D-Wave Quantum occurred more than three years ago! If insiders aren't putting their money to work in their own stock, why should investors?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，內部人士購買股票的唯一原因是：他們相信自己的股票會增值。這四家量子計算純量子公司幾乎沒有或根本沒有內部人士購買。<strong>Quantum Computing, Inc.</strong> 沒有內部人士購買，而 <strong>D-Wave Quantum</strong> 的最後一次內部人士購買發生在三年多前！如果內部人士不願意在自己的股票上投資，投資者又為什麼要投資呢？</p>
</div><p>This lack of insider buying, when pared against persistent selling activity, makes the red flag surrounding quantum computing stock valuations shine even brighter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種缺乏內部人士購買的情況，與持續的賣出活動相比，使得量子計算股票估值周圍的紅旗更加明顯。</p>
</div><p>While it's not uncommon for stocks on the cutting-edge of a next-big-thing trend to trade at a premium valuation, the TTM price-to-sales (P/S) ratios for quantum computing stocks are off the charts and historically unsustainable. Whereas no megacap stock leading an innovative trend has ever been able to sustain a TTM P/S ratio of 30 or higher, IonQ, Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum, and Quantum Computing, Inc. are sporting respective TTM P/S ratios of 340, 1,796, 494, and 10,250!</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然在下一代趨勢的前沿股票以溢價估值交易並不罕見，但量子計算股票的過去 12 個月市銷率（P/S）比率卻高得離譜，且歷史上不可持續。沒有任何一家大型股票能夠維持 30 或更高的過去 12 個月市銷率，而 IonQ、Rigetti Computing、D-Wave Quantum 和 Quantum Computing, Inc.的過去 12 個月市銷率分別為 340、1,796、494 和 10,250！</p>
</div><p>Chalk up this collective $875 million in net-selling activity as yet another warning to Wall Street that this parabolic run-up in quantum computing stocks is unsustainable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>將這集體 8.75 億美元的淨賣出活動視為華爾街的又一個警告，表明量子計算股票的這種拋物線式上漲是不可持續的。</p>
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IonQ、Rigetti Computing、D-Wave Quantum 和 Quantum Computing, Inc. 向華爾街發出了價值 8.75 億美元的警告