<p>從七月到九月，<strong>Opendoor Technologies</strong>(OPEN -3.66%) 的股票引發了一場投機狂潮。這場狂潮在房地產 iBuyer 宣佈其聯合創始人重返董事會以及任命新首席執行官後達到頂峯。從那時起，樂觀情緒逐漸減退，導致了一輪新的虧損。</p>
<p>在短暫觸及每股超過 10 美元的價格後，該股已回落至約 7.25 美元。</p>
<p>如果你還沒有購買，考慮到情緒的突然變化，你可能會猶豫不決。然而，儘管最好是基於基本面投資這隻股票，而不是預測投資者心理，但股票可能在幾周內會有另一個大動作。</p>
<p>為什麼？這與 Opendoor 下一個季度的財報發佈有關，更重要的是，它最新的指導更新。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzc5NDUvaG9tZS1mb3Itc2FsZS1ob3VzaW5nLW1hcmtldC5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzc5NDUvaG9tZS1mb3Itc2FsZS1ob3VzaW5nLW1hcmtldC5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>Opendoor：從 “火熱” 到 “不熱” 再到 “再次火熱”</h2>
<p>Opendoor 利用技術進行大規模房屋翻轉，在疫情期間的牛市中是一隻熱門故事股。該公司於 2020 年底通過與高知名度 SPAC（特殊目的收購公司）贊助商和科技融資者 Chamath Palihapitiya 的合併上市。</p>
<p>Opendoor 最初表現良好，但從 2021 年到 2025 年，股價崩潰，從 35 美元跌至不到 1 美元。這既是由於投機性成長股的受歡迎程度下降，也是由於房地產市場放緩導致 Opendoor 自身財務狀況惡化。</p>
<p>然而，今年，該股大幅反彈，從夏季低點飆升 15 倍。一些公司特定的消息，例如聯合創始人 Keith Rabois 和 Eric Wu 重新迴歸董事會，以及前 <strong>Shopify</strong> 首席運營官 Kaz Nejatian 被任命為首席執行官，促進了股價上漲，但網絡迷因的熱情無疑是主要推動力。</p>
<p>自稱為 “$Open Army” 的一羣網絡迷因投資者，受到對沖基金經理 Eric Jackson 社交媒體帖子的強烈影響，對價格走勢產生了更大的影響。這種情況至少在最近仍然成立，因為網絡迷因交易者開始獲利了結，甚至那些曾經堅定持有的投資者也對搖搖欲墜的牛市失去了信心。</p>
<h2>牛市前景高度不確定</h2>
<p>當我説 Opendoor 有一個 “搖搖欲墜的牛市前景” 時，我的意思是數字房屋翻轉者的轉型計劃能否如預期那樣成功存在很大的不確定性。首先，基於基本面或改善結果的股票進一步上漲取決於房地產市場是否會從凍結狀態恢復到強勁狀態。</p>
<p>然而，儘管美聯儲已經降低了利率，但是否會再次將其削減至接近零仍然值得懷疑。這些超低利率在 2020 年和 2021 年推動了房地產市場的需求。另一方面，即使只有部分房地產反彈，Opendoor 也可能有盈利的路徑。</p>
<p>在最近的一次 CNBC 採訪中，Opendoor 董事長 Rabois 討論了公司需要將員工人數從 1400 人減少到僅 200 人的問題。如果這種激進的成本削減措施與房地產反彈的增長相結合，可能會導致 Opendoor 實現穩定的盈利。然而，也可能不會。請記住，在 2021 年房地產繁榮期間，Opendoor 報告了鉅額的運營虧損。許多跡象表明，房屋翻轉並不是一個經濟上可行的商業模式。即使是基於數字化，它仍然是資本和勞動密集型的。</p>
<h2>可能會有大動作，但請謹慎行事</h2>
<p>目前，最好假設 Opendoor 的牛市前景仍然更多的是炒作而非實質。請謹慎對待這隻股票。</p>
<p>該公司將在 11 月 6 日常規交易結束後公佈財報。即使結果本身令人失望，財報發佈中的任何積極方面，無論是指導更新還是新公司公告，都可能推動股價大幅上漲。想想關於成本削減計劃的更多細節，或者關於 Opendoor 進入新業務領域的任何公告。</p>
<p>然而，另一方面，仍持有 Opendoor 的投資者可能會將財報視為最終退出的機會，在最新結果和更新中的任何負面因素上進行拋售。儘管股價可能會上漲，但在財報日後也可能會下跌。</p>

OPEN

<p>Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) 的股票表現波動劇烈，曾一度達到每股超過 10 美元，隨後跌至約 7.25 美元。該公司即將於 11 月 6 日發佈的季度財報可能會引發顯著的股票波動，受指導更新和成本削減措施的影響。儘管近期有所上漲，但關於 Opendoor 的扭轉計劃和房地產市場復甦的不確定性依然存在。投資者被建議謹慎行事，因為財報可能導致股價上漲或進一步下跌</p>

<p>From July to September, there was a speculative frenzy surrounding shares in <strong>Opendoor Technologies</strong>(OPEN -3.66%). This frenzy peaked not too long after the real estate iBuyer announced the return of its co-founders to its board, as well as the appointment of a new chief executive officer. Since then, bullishness has simmered down, leading to a new round of losses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從七月到九月，<strong>Opendoor Technologies</strong>(OPEN -3.66%) 的股票引發了一場投機狂潮。這場狂潮在房地產 iBuyer 宣佈其聯合創始人重返董事會以及任命新首席執行官後達到頂峯。從那時起，樂觀情緒逐漸減退，導致了一輪新的虧損。</p>
</div><p>After briefly touching prices north of $10 per share, the stock has since fallen back to about $7.25.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在短暫觸及每股超過 10 美元的價格後，該股已回落至約 7.25 美元。</p>
</div><p>If you've yet to buy, you may be hesitant to hop in, given the sudden change in sentiment. However, while it may be best to invest in this stock on its fundamentals, not on predicting investor psychology, another big move for shares may be just weeks away.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你還沒有購買，考慮到情緒的突然變化，你可能會猶豫不決。然而，儘管最好是基於基本面投資這隻股票，而不是預測投資者心理，但股票可能在幾周內會有另一個大動作。</p>
</div><p>Why? It all has to do with Opendoor's next quarterly earnings release, and more importantly, its latest updates to guidance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>為什麼？這與 Opendoor 下一個季度的財報發佈有關，更重要的是，它最新的指導更新。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzc5NDUvaG9tZS1mb3Itc2FsZS1ob3VzaW5nLW1hcmtldC5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F837945%2Fhome-for-sale-housing-market.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Opendoor: From &#34;hot&#34; to &#34;not&#34; to &#34;hot again&#34;</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Opendoor：從 “火熱” 到 “不熱” 再到 “再次火熱”</h2>
</div><p>Opendoor, which utilizes technology to engage in large-scale house flipping, was a popular story stock during the pandemic-era bull market. The company went public in late 2020, via a merger with a SPAC (special purpose acquisition company) controlled by high-profile SPAC sponsor and tech financier Chamath Palihapitiya .</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Opendoor 利用技術進行大規模房屋翻轉，在疫情期間的牛市中是一隻熱門故事股。該公司於 2020 年底通過與高知名度 SPAC（特殊目的收購公司）贊助商和科技融資者 Chamath Palihapitiya 的合併上市。</p>
</div><p>Opendoor performed well initially, but from 2021 to 2025, the share price collapsed, falling from $35 to less than $1. This was due to both the decline in popularity of speculative growth stocks, and Opendoor's own worsening financials due to the housing market slowdown.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Opendoor 最初表現良好，但從 2021 年到 2025 年，股價崩潰，從 35 美元跌至不到 1 美元。這既是由於投機性成長股的受歡迎程度下降，也是由於房地產市場放緩導致 Opendoor 自身財務狀況惡化。</p>
</div><p>This year, however, shares have bounced back in a big way, soaring 15-fold from their summer lows. Some company-specific news, such as the reappointment of co-founders Keith Rabois and Eric Wu to the board, plus the appointment of former <strong>Shopify</strong> Chief Operating Officer Kaz Nejatian to the CEO role, have contributed to gains, but meme enthusiasm has arguably been the main driver.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，今年，該股大幅反彈，從夏季低點飆升 15 倍。一些公司特定的消息，例如聯合創始人 Keith Rabois 和 Eric Wu 重新迴歸董事會，以及前 <strong>Shopify</strong> 首席運營官 Kaz Nejatian 被任命為首席執行官，促進了股價上漲，但網絡迷因的熱情無疑是主要推動力。</p>
</div><p>Calling themselves the &#34;$Open Army,&#34; a crowd of meme investors, heavily influenced by hedge fund manager Eric Jackson's social media postings, have had a greater influence on price action. This has held true at least until recently, as meme traders have started to take profit, and as even those previously holding with diamond hands lose faith in the shaky bull case.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自稱為 “$Open Army” 的一羣網絡迷因投資者，受到對沖基金經理 Eric Jackson 社交媒體帖子的強烈影響，對價格走勢產生了更大的影響。這種情況至少在最近仍然成立，因為網絡迷因交易者開始獲利了結，甚至那些曾經堅定持有的投資者也對搖搖欲墜的牛市失去了信心。</p>
</div><h2>Bull case highly uncertain</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>牛市前景高度不確定</h2>
</div><p>When I say Opendoor has a &#34;shaky bull case,&#34; what I mean is that there is high uncertainty that the digital house-flipper's turnaround plan will pan out as expected. For one, a further rise for the stock based on fundamentals or improved results hinges on the housing market shifting back to robust from frozen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當我説 Opendoor 有一個 “搖搖欲墜的牛市前景” 時，我的意思是數字房屋翻轉者的轉型計劃能否如預期那樣成功存在很大的不確定性。首先，基於基本面或改善結果的股票進一步上漲取決於房地產市場是否會從凍結狀態恢復到強勁狀態。</p>
</div><p>Yet while the Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates, it's questionable whether it will ever slash them again to near zero. Those rock-bottom rates played a major role in driving housing market demand in 2020 and 2021. On the other hand, there may be a path for Opendoor to become profitable, even if there's only a partial housing rebound.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，儘管美聯儲已經降低了利率，但是否會再次將其削減至接近零仍然值得懷疑。這些超低利率在 2020 年和 2021 年推動了房地產市場的需求。另一方面，即使只有部分房地產反彈，Opendoor 也可能有盈利的路徑。</p>
</div><p>In a recent CNBC interview, Opendoor Chairman Rabois discussed how the company needs to reduce its workforce by 85%, from 1,400 employees to just 200 employees. Such aggressive cost-cutting measures, if coupled with growth from a housing rebound, could lead to steady profitability for Opendoor. Then again, maybe not. Remember that, during the 2021 housing boom, Opendoor reported heavy operating losses. Much still suggests house-flipping isn't an economically viable business model. Even when digitally based, it remains both capital- and labor-intensive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在最近的一次 CNBC 採訪中，Opendoor 董事長 Rabois 討論了公司需要將員工人數從 1400 人減少到僅 200 人的問題。如果這種激進的成本削減措施與房地產反彈的增長相結合，可能會導致 Opendoor 實現穩定的盈利。然而，也可能不會。請記住，在 2021 年房地產繁榮期間，Opendoor 報告了鉅額的運營虧損。許多跡象表明，房屋翻轉並不是一個經濟上可行的商業模式。即使是基於數字化，它仍然是資本和勞動密集型的。</p>
</div><h2>A big move may lie ahead, but tread carefully</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>可能會有大動作，但請謹慎行事</h2>
</div><p>For now, it's best to assume that there's still more hype than substance to the Opendoor bull case. Tread carefully with this stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，最好假設 Opendoor 的牛市前景仍然更多的是炒作而非實質。請謹慎對待這隻股票。</p>
</div><p>The company next announces earnings after the end of regular trading on Nov. 6. Even if the results themselves are underwhelming, any positive aspects in the earnings release, whether updates to guidance or new company announcements, could fuel a big move higher. Think more details about the cost-cutting plans, or any announcement regarding Opendoor's entry into a new line of business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該公司將在 11 月 6 日常規交易結束後公佈財報。即使結果本身令人失望，財報發佈中的任何積極方面，無論是指導更新還是新公司公告，都可能推動股價大幅上漲。想想關於成本削減計劃的更多細節，或者關於 Opendoor 進入新業務領域的任何公告。</p>
</div><p>Conversely, however, those still holding Opendoor could view earnings as an opportunity to finally exit, selling on any negative aspect in the latest results and updates. While shares could rally higher, they could also sink lower after earnings day.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，另一方面，仍持有 Opendoor 的投資者可能會將財報視為最終退出的機會，在最新結果和更新中的任何負面因素上進行拋售。儘管股價可能會上漲，但在財報日後也可能會下跌。</p>
</div>

Opendoor 股票的下一個重大變動即將在幾周後到來