<h2><strong>關鍵要點</strong></h2>
<h3><em>比特幣會迎來新的歷史高點嗎？</em></h3>
<p>可能會。如果重新積累持續，週期模型顯示比特幣可能在 $143K 到 $146K 之間見頂。</p>
<h3><em>為什麼交易者在比特幣供應持續下降的情況下做空？</em></h3>
<p>儘管期貨市場上做空情況嚴重，但長期持有者正在積累，從交易所抽走比特幣，可能會出現擠壓的機會。</p>
<hr/>
<p>比特幣 [BTC] 發出混合信號。</p>
<p>交易者正在對其做空，未平倉合約（OI）上升了 30%，而資金費率則深度負值。但長期持有者並沒有出售。</p>
<p>自一月以來，比特幣在交易所和場外交易市場的供應從 450 萬下降到 310 萬。儘管創下新高，人們仍在購買，一些分析師表示比特幣在本週期可能達到 $143K 到 $146K。</p>
<h2><strong>槓桿加大，做空者湧入</strong></h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/uIYIIB_c8711729542a09ba7d4818ab5a1251fcb52a5b65097e4deb79a81e4546120621.webp?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/uIYIIB_c8711729542a09ba7d4818ab5a1251fcb52a5b65097e4deb79a81e4546120621.webp"/></p>
<p>來源：CryptoQuant</p>
<p>在過去一週，幣安的未平倉合約（OI）上漲了超過 30%，成為近期最陡峭的攀升之一。同時，資金費率轉為負值，表明做空頭寸激增。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/h3XGT4zL4_e2a81f3c99c47ffd4406b2c2e9ab3753b9fae3efc63b607a3406a0848a159be4.webp?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/h3XGT4zL4_e2a81f3c99c47ffd4406b2c2e9ab3753b9fae3efc63b607a3406a0848a159be4.webp"/></p>
<p>來源：CryptoQuant</p>
<p>簡單來説，交易者正在大量做空市場，預計價格會下跌。但通常，當資金變得如此悲觀且槓桿加大時，往往會為做空擠壓鋪平道路。</p>
<p>這將迫使看空的交易者回補。</p>
<h2><strong>供應枯竭</strong></h2>
<p>比特幣正在以快速的速度從交易所和場外交易市場消失：自 2024 年 1 月以來，供應從 450 萬下降到僅 310 萬枚。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/f4GiK_d85e74c8181edf6cd97c0cc9b438c86984a7037c7e8e7fbcf8dd2a2876daabde.webp?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/f4GiK_d85e74c8181edf6cd97c0cc9b438c86984a7037c7e8e7fbcf8dd2a2876daabde.webp"/></p>
<p>來源：CryptoQuant</p>
<p>這是一個巨大的變化。</p>
<p>礦工沒有出售，長期持有者也不動，即使價格突破新高。與過去的週期不同，沒人急於獲利。相反，比特幣正被轉入冷錢包。</p>
<h2><strong>頂部在哪裏？</strong></h2>
<p>根據 Alphractal 的首席執行官 Joao Wedson 的説法，比特幣當前的價格走勢仍然符合其長期週期結構。</p>
<p>如果比特幣處於重新積累階段，Wedson 預計本週期的頂部在 $143,700 到 $146,300 之間，這與歷史週期的表現衰退一致。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/G3gy1zDWEAAjc6K-scaled.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/G3gy1zDWEAAjc6K-scaled.jpg"/></p>
<p>來源：Alphractal</p>
<p>然而，如果最近的高點 $126K 標誌着分配階段，那麼週期頂部可能已經到達。儘管如此，Wedson 指出，</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“數據並沒有表現出我們已經見頂……”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>時間將很快揭示哪種敍述會成為現實。</p>

GBTC

<p>分析師建議，比特幣可能尚未達到峯值，如果重新積累持續，潛在高點在 143,000 美元到 146,000 美元之間。儘管空頭頭寸增加了 30% 且融資利率為負，但長期持有者（LTHs）正在積累比特幣，自 1 月以來交易所的供應量從 450 萬減少到 310 萬。這可能導致空頭擠壓，因為交易者在對市場做空。首席執行官 Joao Wedson 表示，目前的價格波動與長期週期一致，但關於近期高點是否標誌着分配階段仍然存在不確定性</p>

<h2><strong>Key takeaways</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>關鍵要點</strong></h2>
</div><h3><em>Is Bitcoin headed for a new all-time high?</em></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><em>比特幣會迎來新的歷史高點嗎？</em></h3>
</div><p>Possibly. Cycle models show BTC could top out between $143K and $146K if re-accumulation continues.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可能會。如果重新積累持續，週期模型顯示比特幣可能在 $143K 到 $146K 之間見頂。</p>
</div><h3><em>Why are traders shorting while Bitcoin supply keeps dropping?</em></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><em>為什麼交易者在比特幣供應持續下降的情況下做空？</em></h3>
</div><p>Despite heavy shorting in Futures, LTHs are accumulating, draining BTC from exchanges with the chance of a possible squeeze.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管期貨市場上做空情況嚴重，但長期持有者正在積累，從交易所抽走比特幣，可能會出現擠壓的機會。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p>Bitcoin [BTC] is giving off mixed signals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特幣 [BTC] 發出混合信號。</p>
</div><p>Traders are betting against it, with Open Interest (OI) up 30% and Funding Rates deeply negative. But LTHs aren’t selling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>交易者正在對其做空，未平倉合約（OI）上升了 30%，而資金費率則深度負值。但長期持有者並沒有出售。</p>
</div><p>Since January, BTC supply on exchanges and OTC desks has dropped from 4.5 million to 3.1 million. Despite new highs, people are still buying, and some analysts say Bitcoin could reach $143K to $146K this cycle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自一月以來，比特幣在交易所和場外交易市場的供應從 450 萬下降到 310 萬。儘管創下新高，人們仍在購買，一些分析師表示比特幣在本週期可能達到 $143K 到 $146K。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Leverage ramps up as shorts crowd in</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>槓桿加大，做空者湧入</strong></h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/uIYIIB_c8711729542a09ba7d4818ab5a1251fcb52a5b65097e4deb79a81e4546120621.webp" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/uIYIIB_c8711729542a09ba7d4818ab5a1251fcb52a5b65097e4deb79a81e4546120621.webp"/></p>
<p>Source: CryptoQuant</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：CryptoQuant</p>
</div><p>Over the past week, OI on Binance jumped by more than 30%, making it one of the steepest climbs in recent months. At the same time, Funding Rates turned negative, indicating a surge in short positions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去一週，幣安的未平倉合約（OI）上漲了超過 30%，成為近期最陡峭的攀升之一。同時，資金費率轉為負值，表明做空頭寸激增。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/h3XGT4zL4_e2a81f3c99c47ffd4406b2c2e9ab3753b9fae3efc63b607a3406a0848a159be4.webp" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/h3XGT4zL4_e2a81f3c99c47ffd4406b2c2e9ab3753b9fae3efc63b607a3406a0848a159be4.webp"/></p>
<p>Source: CryptoQuant</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：CryptoQuant</p>
</div><p>In simple terms, traders are heavily betting against the market, expecting prices to fall. But usually, when funding gets this bearish and leverage piles in, it often makes way for a short squeeze.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>簡單來説，交易者正在大量做空市場，預計價格會下跌。但通常，當資金變得如此悲觀且槓桿加大時，往往會為做空擠壓鋪平道路。</p>
</div><p>This would force bearish traders to buy back in.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這將迫使看空的交易者回補。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Supply dries up</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>供應枯竭</strong></h2>
</div><p>BTC is vanishing from exchanges and OTC desks at a rapid pace: supply has dropped from 4.5 million to just 3.1 million coins since January 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特幣正在以快速的速度從交易所和場外交易市場消失：自 2024 年 1 月以來，供應從 450 萬下降到僅 310 萬枚。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/f4GiK_d85e74c8181edf6cd97c0cc9b438c86984a7037c7e8e7fbcf8dd2a2876daabde.webp" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/f4GiK_d85e74c8181edf6cd97c0cc9b438c86984a7037c7e8e7fbcf8dd2a2876daabde.webp"/></p>
<p>Source: CryptoQuant</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：CryptoQuant</p>
</div><p>That’s a big shift.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這是一個巨大的變化。</p>
</div><p>Miners aren’t selling, and LTHs won’t budge, even as prices break into new highs. Unlike past cycles, there’s no rush to take profits. Instead, BTC is being pulled into cold storage.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>礦工沒有出售，長期持有者也不動，即使價格突破新高。與過去的週期不同，沒人急於獲利。相反，比特幣正被轉入冷錢包。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Where’s the top?</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>頂部在哪裏？</strong></h2>
</div><p>According to Joao Wedson, CEO of Alphractal, Bitcoin’s current price action still fits within its long-term cycle structure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 Alphractal 的首席執行官 Joao Wedson 的説法，比特幣當前的價格走勢仍然符合其長期週期結構。</p>
</div><p>If BTC is in a re-accumulation phase, Wedson projects the top of this cycle between $143,700 and $146,300, consistent with historical performance decay across previous cycles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果比特幣處於重新積累階段，Wedson 預計本週期的頂部在 $143,700 到 $146,300 之間，這與歷史週期的表現衰退一致。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/G3gy1zDWEAAjc6K-scaled.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/G3gy1zDWEAAjc6K-scaled.jpg"/></p>
<p>Source: Alphractal</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：Alphractal</p>
</div><p>However, if recent highs around $126K marked a distribution phase, the cycle top may already be in. Still, Wedson notes that,</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，如果最近的高點 $126K 標誌着分配階段，那麼週期頂部可能已經到達。儘管如此，Wedson 指出，</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“The data isn’t acting like we’ve topped…”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“數據並沒有表現出我們已經見頂……”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>Time will soon tell which narrative plays out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>時間將很快揭示哪種敍述會成為現實。</p>
</div>

比特幣是否已經達到頂峯？分析師稱 ‘尚未’——以下是原因