<p><strong>標普 500 指數</strong> 在今年春季經歷了一些艱難時刻，因為投資者擔心唐納德·特朗普總統對進口商品徵收關税的影響。然而，隨着關税談判的進行以及公司在關税環境中展現出的韌性，投資者的擔憂減輕，基準指數恢復了幫助其實現連續兩年增長的積極勢頭。如今，在創下歷史新高後，標普 500 指數今年的漲幅已達到 13%。</p>
<p>這主要得益於包括人工智能（AI）和科技股在內的成長型公司股票，投資者對降低利率和強勁企業盈利的樂觀情緒推動了這一增長。聯邦儲備委員會在九月份降息，並表示在年底前還將再降兩次。根據 <strong>黑巖集團</strong> 的數據，在第二季度，約 80% 的公司超出了分析師對收入和利潤的預期。</p>
<p>在這樣一個光明的背景下，兩位市場專家卻向華爾街發出了同樣的嚴峻警告。我所説的是聯邦儲備委員會主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾和億萬富翁投資者沃倫·巴菲特。歷史清晰地描繪了未來的趨勢。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzgyNjYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTIxMzUxMzU0NC5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzgyNjYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTIxMzUxMzU0NC5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>所有目光都在鮑威爾身上</h2>
<p>首先，值得注意的是，最近幾個月，所有目光都集中在鮑威爾身上，因為投資者在等待九月份的利率決定以及美聯儲主席對經濟的總體看法。投資者希望降息，並期待更多降息，因為較低的借貸成本使公司更容易借款和擴張，而較低的利率也有利於消費者支出。這一切對公司的盈利以及因此而來的股票表現都是積極的。</p>
<p>與此同時，所有目光始終聚焦在巴菲特身上，因為他在長期投資中的成功。他帶領 <strong>伯克希爾·哈撒韋</strong> 在近 60 年裏實現了超越市場的回報，這得益於他識別優質股票、以合理價格買入並耐心等待其上漲的能力。</p>
<p>那麼，巴菲特和鮑威爾最近傳達了什麼信息呢？巴菲特的信息通過一個簡單的行動傳達出來：將現金儲備提升到創紀錄的水平。現在他的現金儲備為 3440 億美元，幾個月前曾超過 3470 億美元。這表明巴菲特更傾向於將現金留存而不是購買股票，當他這樣做時，意味着他沒有看到許多有趣的購買機會。現在，這並不意味着今天的公司經營狀況糟糕。它只是表明這些公司的交易水平過於昂貴。</p>
<p>鮑威爾最近的話也支持了這一點。在上個月底的一次演講中，美聯儲主席表示：“股票價格相對較高。” 他緩和了這一説法，表示目前金融穩定風險並不高。但底線是，投資者應該關注的是，當前股票看起來價格昂貴。</p>
<h2>Shiller CAPE 比率</h2>
<p>為了説明巴菲特和鮑威爾的警告，我們可以看看標普 500 的 Shiller 週期性調整市盈率（CAPE）比率。這個指標考慮了 10 年期間的價格和每股收益。它是一個可靠的衡量標準，因為通過覆蓋多年的時間段，它考慮了經濟環境的波動。</p>
<p>標普 500 的 Shiller CAPE 比率已達到 36，這是歷史上僅有兩次超過的水平。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3128a6a017c58bd5c9fd84a8eba315cf.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3128a6a017c58bd5c9fd84a8eba315cf.png"/></p>
<p>標普 500 Shiller CAPE 比率數據來源於 YCharts。CAPE 比率 = 週期性調整市盈率。</p>
<p>歷史清晰地描繪了未來的趨勢。在過去，達到這樣的水平後，標普 500 指數通常會出現下跌。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ccd7edfff970fdaaa1e47b724ffb3225.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ccd7edfff970fdaaa1e47b724ffb3225.png"/></p>
<p>標普 500 Shiller CAPE 比率數據來源於 YCharts。CAPE 比率 = 週期性調整市盈率。</p>
<p>這對你作為投資者意味着什麼？雖然無法準確預測下跌何時發生，但市場從來不會永遠以直線方式上漲或下跌。漲跌週期是正常市場週期的一部分。因此，標普 500 指數在某個時刻會下跌，但好消息是，歷史也告訴我們，它會反彈並繼續上漲。</p>
<p>因此，投資者應該在市場週期中繼續購買股票，但僅在合理價格下。如今，整體股市可能昂貴，但你仍然可以找到個別股票以可接受甚至低廉的價格交易。鮑威爾和巴菲特的警告響亮而清晰，但如果你明智地挑選股票，你可以在任何市場環境中獲勝。</p>

標普 500 指數

<p>美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾和億萬富翁投資者沃倫·巴菲特對當前股市狀態發出了警告，指出股票價格被高度估值。儘管標準普爾 500 指數今年上漲了 13%，表現強勁，巴菲特卻積累了 3440 億美元的現金儲備，暗示缺乏有吸引力的買入機會。鮑威爾也表達了類似的觀點，指出股票看起來價格昂貴。標準普爾 500 指數的 Shiller CAPE 比率已達到 36，歷史上通常預示着潛在的下跌。投資者被建議在合理價格下買入股票，儘管當前市場狀況不佳</p>

<p>The <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> index went through some tough times this spring as investors worried about the impact of President Donald Trump's tariffs on imports. However, as negotiations on tariffs happened and companies showed their resilience in a tariff environment, investors' concerns lessened, and the benchmark recovered the positive momentum that helped it score two consecutive years of gains. And today, after reaching record highs, the S&amp;P 500 is heading for an increase of 13% this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>標普 500 指數</strong> 在今年春季經歷了一些艱難時刻，因為投資者擔心唐納德·特朗普總統對進口商品徵收關税的影響。然而，隨着關税談判的進行以及公司在關税環境中展現出的韌性，投資者的擔憂減輕，基準指數恢復了幫助其實現連續兩年增長的積極勢頭。如今，在創下歷史新高後，標普 500 指數今年的漲幅已達到 13%。</p>
</div><p>This is led by growth company stocks, including artificial intelligence (AI) and tech stocks, amid optimism about lower interest rates and strong corporate earnings. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates in September and indicated two more would come before the year's end. As for earnings, in the second quarter, about 80% of companies beat analysts' revenue and profit estimates, according to <strong>BlackRock</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這主要得益於包括人工智能（AI）和科技股在內的成長型公司股票，投資者對降低利率和強勁企業盈利的樂觀情緒推動了這一增長。聯邦儲備委員會在九月份降息，並表示在年底前還將再降兩次。根據 <strong>黑巖集團</strong> 的數據，在第二季度，約 80% 的公司超出了分析師對收入和利潤的預期。</p>
</div><p>Against this bright backdrop, though, two market experts have delivered the same dire warning to Wall Street. I'm talking about Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and billionaire investor Warren Buffett. And history paints a compellingly clear picture of what's to come.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這樣一個光明的背景下，兩位市場專家卻向華爾街發出了同樣的嚴峻警告。我所説的是聯邦儲備委員會主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾和億萬富翁投資者沃倫·巴菲特。歷史清晰地描繪了未來的趨勢。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzgyNjYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTIxMzUxMzU0NC5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F838266%2Fgettyimages-1213513544.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>All eyes on Powell</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>所有目光都在鮑威爾身上</h2>
</div><p>First, it's important to note that all eyes were on Powell in recent months as investors waited for the September interest rate decision and the Fed chair's general views on the economy. Investors hoped for a rate cut, and more to come, as lower borrowing costs make it easier for companies to borrow and expand -- and lower rates also favor consumer spending. All of this is positive for companies' earnings and, therefore, their stock performance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，值得注意的是，最近幾個月，所有目光都集中在鮑威爾身上，因為投資者在等待九月份的利率決定以及美聯儲主席對經濟的總體看法。投資者希望降息，並期待更多降息，因為較低的借貸成本使公司更容易借款和擴張，而較低的利率也有利於消費者支出。這一切對公司的盈利以及因此而來的股票表現都是積極的。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, all eyes are <em>always</em> on Buffett thanks to his investing successes over the long term. He's led <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong> to market-beating returns for almost 60 years thanks to his ability to identify quality stocks, get in on them at reasonable prices, and patiently wait for them to take off.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，所有目光始終聚焦在巴菲特身上，因為他在長期投資中的成功。他帶領 <strong>伯克希爾·哈撒韋</strong> 在近 60 年裏實現了超越市場的回報，這得益於他識別優質股票、以合理價格買入並耐心等待其上漲的能力。</p>
</div><p>So, what message have Buffett and Powell both delivered in recent times? Buffett's message came through one simple action: building up his cash pile to record levels. It's now at $344 billion after reaching more than $347 billion a few months ago. This shows that Buffett has favored setting cash aside over buying stocks, and when he does this, it means he doesn't see many interesting buying opportunities. Now, this doesn't imply that today's companies have terrible businesses. It just suggests they are trading at levels that are too expensive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那麼，巴菲特和鮑威爾最近傳達了什麼信息呢？巴菲特的信息通過一個簡單的行動傳達出來：將現金儲備提升到創紀錄的水平。現在他的現金儲備為 3440 億美元，幾個月前曾超過 3470 億美元。這表明巴菲特更傾向於將現金留存而不是購買股票，當他這樣做時，意味着他沒有看到許多有趣的購買機會。現在，這並不意味着今天的公司經營狀況糟糕。它只是表明這些公司的交易水平過於昂貴。</p>
</div><p>Powell's recent words support this. In a speech late last month, the Fed chair said, &#34;Equity prices are fairly highly valued.&#34; He tempered this by saying financial stability risks aren't high right now. But the bottom line, and what should be of concern to investors, is that stocks are looking pricey these days.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鮑威爾最近的話也支持了這一點。在上個月底的一次演講中，美聯儲主席表示：“股票價格相對較高。” 他緩和了這一説法，表示目前金融穩定風險並不高。但底線是，投資者應該關注的是，當前股票看起來價格昂貴。</p>
</div><h2>The Shiller CAPE ratio</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Shiller CAPE 比率</h2>
</div><p>And to illustrate these warnings from Buffett and Powell, we can look at the S&amp;P 500 Shiller cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio. This metric considers prices and earnings per share over a 10-year period. It's a reliable measure because, by covering a period of years, it accounts for fluctuations in the economic environment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>為了説明巴菲特和鮑威爾的警告，我們可以看看標普 500 的 Shiller 週期性調整市盈率（CAPE）比率。這個指標考慮了 10 年期間的價格和每股收益。它是一個可靠的衡量標準，因為通過覆蓋多年的時間段，它考慮了經濟環境的波動。</p>
</div><p>The S&amp;P 500 Shiller CAPE ratio has reached 36, a level it has surpassed only twice before throughout history.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>標普 500 的 Shiller CAPE 比率已達到 36，這是歷史上僅有兩次超過的水平。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3128a6a017c58bd5c9fd84a8eba315cf.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3128a6a017c58bd5c9fd84a8eba315cf.png"/></p>
<p>S&amp;P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio data by YCharts. CAPE Ratio = cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>標普 500 Shiller CAPE 比率數據來源於 YCharts。CAPE 比率 = 週期性調整市盈率。</p>
</div><p>And history paints a clear picture of what's ahead. In the past, after reaching such levels, declines in the S&amp;P 500 followed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>歷史清晰地描繪了未來的趨勢。在過去，達到這樣的水平後，標普 500 指數通常會出現下跌。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ccd7edfff970fdaaa1e47b724ffb3225.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ccd7edfff970fdaaa1e47b724ffb3225.png"/></p>
<p>S&amp;P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio data by YCharts. CAPE Ratio = cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>標普 500 Shiller CAPE 比率數據來源於 YCharts。CAPE 比率 = 週期性調整市盈率。</p>
</div><p>What does this mean for you as an investor right now? It's impossible to predict exactly when declines will happen, but the market never rises or falls in a straight line forever. Periods of gains and losses are part of normal market cycles. So, the S&amp;P 500 will fall at some point, but the good news is, as history also shows us, it will rebound and go on to gain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這對你作為投資者意味着什麼？雖然無法準確預測下跌何時發生，但市場從來不會永遠以直線方式上漲或下跌。漲跌週期是正常市場週期的一部分。因此，標普 500 指數在某個時刻會下跌，但好消息是，歷史也告訴我們，它會反彈並繼續上漲。</p>
</div><p>So, investors should continue to buy stocks throughout market cycles -- but only at reasonable prices. Today, the stock market as a whole may be expensive, but you can still find individual stocks that trade for acceptable or even low prices. The warnings from Powell and Buffett are ringing out loud and clear, but if you shop wisely for stocks, you can win during any market environment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，投資者應該在市場週期中繼續購買股票，但僅在合理價格下。如今，整體股市可能昂貴，但你仍然可以找到個別股票以可接受甚至低廉的價格交易。鮑威爾和巴菲特的警告響亮而清晰，但如果你明智地挑選股票，你可以在任何市場環境中獲勝。</p>
</div>

Fed Chief Jerome Powell and Billionaire Investor Warren Buffett Just Delivered the Same Dire Warning to Wall Street. History Paints a Compellingly Clear Picture of What Happens Next.

- 標普 500 指數在春季經歷波動，因投資者擔憂關税影響。  
- 目前該指數上漲 13%，受科技股和 AI 股推動。  
- 然而，巴菲特和鮑威爾警告股票價格過高，需謹慎投資。

美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾和億萬富翁投資者沃倫·巴菲特剛剛向華爾街發出了同樣的嚴峻警告。歷史清晰地展示了接下來可能發生的情況