<p>大多數現代投資者，可能大多數人都知道沃倫·巴菲特，<strong>伯克希爾哈撒韋</strong> 的首席執行官。但更少人知道幫助訓練他的本傑明·格雷厄姆。然而，現在是思考價值投資者格雷厄姆對沃倫·巴菲特投資方法最顯著貢獻之一的好時機。這對伯克希爾哈撒韋產生了 3440 億美元的影響。</p>
<h2>沃倫·巴菲特的投資方式</h2>
<p>伯克希爾哈撒韋最好被描述為一個令人驚訝的多元化企業集團。該公司完全擁有 189 家公司，並且還擁有大量公開交易的股票組合。事實上，伯克希爾哈撒韋根本不是一家普通公司——它更像是沃倫·巴菲特的投資工具。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzY2MTEvMjRfMDFfMDgtd2FycmVuLWJ1ZmZldHQtX2ltYWdlLXNvdXJjZS1tb3RsZXktZm9vbC1tZi1kbG9hZC1fYnVmZmV0dDExLXRtZi5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzY2MTEvMjRfMDFfMDgtd2FycmVuLWJ1ZmZldHQtX2ltYWdlLXNvdXJjZS1tb3RsZXktZm9vbC1tZi1kbG9hZC1fYnVmZmV0dDExLXRtZi5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Motley Fool。</p>
<p>巴菲特的投資方法看似簡單。他喜歡在價格吸引時購買優秀公司，然後長期持有。這個方法的每個部分都很重要，但今天有一個部分特別突出。巴菲特不追逐股票——他等待 “市場先生” 變得不理性，提供難以拒絕的交易。</p>
<p>“市場先生” 是本傑明·格雷厄姆的構想，他是一位價值投資者。格雷厄姆用市場先生來強調投資者可以，也確實經常會，錯誤定價股票，無論是向上還是向下。投資者應該試圖判斷一家公司的長期價值是否相對於市場先生所給予的股票價格是值得的。支付過高，即使是最好的公司也可能導致你的經紀賬户出現虧損。</p>
<p>巴菲特長期以來一直將格雷厄姆的價值關注銘記於心，儘管他隨着時間的推移對價值的關注有所減弱。不過，如果他找不到值得購買的東西，巴菲特就會選擇持有現金並等待。相反，他會考慮出售市場可能過於熱衷購買的股票，即使這意味着讓銷售所得以現金和短期投資（例如國債）的形式留在資產負債表上。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/dafcd74e201ee3bb5656ad9c4bc846ac.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/dafcd74e201ee3bb5656ad9c4bc846ac.png"/></p>
<p>BRK.A 數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
<h2>你需要考慮的 3440 億美元警告</h2>
<p>在過去的幾年裏，巴菲特一直在發掘他內心的格雷厄姆。他一直在出售股票，並且隨着 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong>(^GSPC 0.53%) 接近歷史最高點，他沒有選擇進行任何重大投資。截至 2025 年第二季度末，結果是資產負債表上有一個巨大的 3440 億美元現金儲備。</p>
<p>這對公司的財務表現造成了拖累。當然，利率上升使得現金能夠賺取利息收入，考慮到現金的總額，這加起來是一個可觀的數字（伯克希爾哈撒韋在第二季度產生了大約 60 億美元的利息和股息收入）。但考慮到伯克希爾哈撒韋作為一家企業的業績，巴菲特可能通過良好的投資獲得更高的回報。</p>
<p>最終，巴菲特找不到他想買的東西是個大問題。好吧，幾乎如此。正當他計劃辭去伯克希爾哈撒韋首席執行官職務（他將繼續擔任董事會主席）時，巴菲特同意以約 100 億美元收購 <strong>西方石油</strong> 的化工業務。化工行業目前不受歡迎，因此他可能得到了一個便宜的交易。</p>
<p>事情是這樣的。雖然 Oxy 交易在規模上是重要的，但它代表了截至第二季度伯克希爾哈撒韋資產負債表上現金的不到 3%。簡單來説，巴菲特找到了一筆交易，但他仍然沒有找到足夠好的交易來投入大量現金。</p>
<h2>你不應該忽視的警告</h2>
<p>巴菲特並沒有停止投資，你可能也不應該停止。但他非常挑剔，你也應該同樣挑剔。所有這些現金是一個警告，表明今天市場價格昂貴。這一點在標準普爾 500 指數的高位上得到了強調，但考慮到最近熱門趨勢如人工智能和迷因股票，過度現象更為廣泛。</p>
<p>如果你關注巴菲特，請注意他的行動所發出的警告。當你做出投資決策時，可能是時候更加謹慎而不是激進。本傑明·格雷厄姆可能也會告訴你同樣的事情。</p>

伯克希爾哈撒韋-A

西方石油

伯克希爾哈撒韋-B

<p>沃倫·巴菲特，伯克希爾哈撒韋的首席執行官，向投資者發出了重要警告，表示其擁有的 3440 億美元現金儲備顯示出缺乏有吸引力的投資機會。遵循其導師本傑明·格雷厄姆的原則，巴菲特一直在出售股票並持有現金，反映出他對市場高估值的擔憂，尤其是在標準普爾 500 指數接近歷史高點的情況下。他最近以 100 億美元收購西方石油的化工業務，這一罕見的投資表明，在當前市場環境下，投資者應採取謹慎的態度</p>

<p>Most modern investors, and probably most people in general, know about Warren Buffett, the CEO of <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>(BRK.A 0.77%) (BRK.B 0.78%). But fewer people know the man who helped to train him, Benjamin Graham. Right now, however, is a good time to think about one of value investor Graham's most prominent contributions to Warren Buffett's investment approach. It has had a $344 billion effect on Berkshire Hathaway.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大多數現代投資者，可能大多數人都知道沃倫·巴菲特，<strong>伯克希爾哈撒韋</strong> 的首席執行官。但更少人知道幫助訓練他的本傑明·格雷厄姆。然而，現在是思考價值投資者格雷厄姆對沃倫·巴菲特投資方法最顯著貢獻之一的好時機。這對伯克希爾哈撒韋產生了 3440 億美元的影響。</p>
</div><h2>The Warren Buffett way</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>沃倫·巴菲特的投資方式</h2>
</div><p>Berkshire Hathaway is best described as a surprisingly diversified conglomerate. The company owns 189 companies outright, and it also has a large portfolio of publicly traded stocks. The truth is that Berkshire Hathaway isn't a normal company at all -- it is best seen as the investment vehicle of Warren Buffett.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伯克希爾哈撒韋最好被描述為一個令人驚訝的多元化企業集團。該公司完全擁有 189 家公司，並且還擁有大量公開交易的股票組合。事實上，伯克希爾哈撒韋根本不是一家普通公司——它更像是沃倫·巴菲特的投資工具。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzY2MTEvMjRfMDFfMDgtd2FycmVuLWJ1ZmZldHQtX2ltYWdlLXNvdXJjZS1tb3RsZXktZm9vbC1tZi1kbG9hZC1fYnVmZmV0dDExLXRtZi5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F836611%2F24_01_08-warren-buffett-_image-source-motley-fool-mf-dload-_buffett11-tmf.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: The Motley Fool.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Motley Fool。</p>
</div><p>Buffett's investment approach is deceptively simple. He likes to buy good companies when they are attractively priced, and then hold them for the long term. Each part of that approach is important, but one stands out today in an important way. Buffett doesn't chase stocks -- he waits for &#34;Mr. Market&#34; to get irrational and offer up deals that are hard to refuse.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特的投資方法看似簡單。他喜歡在價格吸引時購買優秀公司，然後長期持有。這個方法的每個部分都很重要，但今天有一個部分特別突出。巴菲特不追逐股票——他等待 “市場先生” 變得不理性，提供難以拒絕的交易。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Mr. Market&#34; is the construct of Benjamin Graham, who was a value investor. Graham used Mr. Market to highlight that investors can, and do quite frequently, missprice stocks to the upside and the downside. Investors are supposed to try to figure out if the long-term value of a business is worthwhile relative to the price the stock is being afforded by Mr. Market. Pay too much, and even the best company can end up leading to losses in your brokerage account.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“市場先生” 是本傑明·格雷厄姆的構想，他是一位價值投資者。格雷厄姆用市場先生來強調投資者可以，也確實經常會，錯誤定價股票，無論是向上還是向下。投資者應該試圖判斷一家公司的長期價值是否相對於市場先生所給予的股票價格是值得的。支付過高，即使是最好的公司也可能導致你的經紀賬户出現虧損。</p>
</div><p>Buffett has long taken Graham's value focus to heart, though he has softened his value focus over time. Still, if he can't find something worth buying, Buffett will just sit on cash and wait. Conversely, he will consider selling stocks that the market may be overeager to buy, even if that means letting the sale proceeds sit on the balance sheet in the form of cash and short-term investments (Treasury bills, for example).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特長期以來一直將格雷厄姆的價值關注銘記於心，儘管他隨着時間的推移對價值的關注有所減弱。不過，如果他找不到值得購買的東西，巴菲特就會選擇持有現金並等待。相反，他會考慮出售市場可能過於熱衷購買的股票，即使這意味着讓銷售所得以現金和短期投資（例如國債）的形式留在資產負債表上。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/dafcd74e201ee3bb5656ad9c4bc846ac.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/dafcd74e201ee3bb5656ad9c4bc846ac.png"/></p>
<p>BRK.A data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>BRK.A 數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
</div><h2>The $344 billion warning you'll want to think about</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>你需要考慮的 3440 億美元警告</h2>
</div><p>Over the last couple of years, Buffett has been channeling his inner Graham. He has been selling stocks, and with the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(^GSPC 0.53%) near all-time highs, he hasn't chosen to make any significant investments. As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the outcome is a massive $344 billion cash hoard sitting on the balance sheet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去的幾年裏，巴菲特一直在發掘他內心的格雷厄姆。他一直在出售股票，並且隨着 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong>(^GSPC 0.53%) 接近歷史最高點，他沒有選擇進行任何重大投資。截至 2025 年第二季度末，結果是資產負債表上有一個巨大的 3440 億美元現金儲備。</p>
</div><p>That's a drag on the company's financial performance. Sure, interest rates have risen so that cash is earning interest income that, given the total sum on cash, adds up to a material figure (Berkshire Hathaway generated roughly $6 billion in interest and dividend income in Q2). But Buffett could probably achieve higher returns with a good investment, given Berkshire Hathaway's track record as a business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這對公司的財務表現造成了拖累。當然，利率上升使得現金能夠賺取利息收入，考慮到現金的總額，這加起來是一個可觀的數字（伯克希爾哈撒韋在第二季度產生了大約 60 億美元的利息和股息收入）。但考慮到伯克希爾哈撒韋作為一家企業的業績，巴菲特可能通過良好的投資獲得更高的回報。</p>
</div><p>Ultimately, it's a big deal that Buffett can't find anything he wants to buy. Well, almost. Just as he's planning to step down as Berkshire Hathaway CEO (he's going to remain the chairman of the board of directors), Buffett has agreed to pay around $10 billion for <strong>Occidental Petroleum</strong>'s (OXY -0.30%) chemicals business. The chemicals sector is out of favor right now, so he probably got a bargain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最終，巴菲特找不到他想買的東西是個大問題。好吧，幾乎如此。正當他計劃辭去伯克希爾哈撒韋首席執行官職務（他將繼續擔任董事會主席）時，巴菲特同意以約 100 億美元收購 <strong>西方石油</strong> 的化工業務。化工行業目前不受歡迎，因此他可能得到了一個便宜的交易。</p>
</div><p>Here's the thing. While the Oxy deal is material in size, it represents less than 3% of the cash on Berkshire Hathaway's balance sheet at the end of Q2. Simply put, Buffett found a deal, but he's still not finding enough good deals to put a lot of cash to work.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事情是這樣的。雖然 Oxy 交易在規模上是重要的，但它代表了截至第二季度伯克希爾哈撒韋資產負債表上現金的不到 3%。簡單來説，巴菲特找到了一筆交易，但他仍然沒有找到足夠好的交易來投入大量現金。</p>
</div><h2>The warning you shouldn't ignore</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>你不應該忽視的警告</h2>
</div><p>Buffett hasn't stopped investing, and you probably shouldn't either. But he is being highly selective, and you should probably be just as selective, too. All of that cash is a warning that the market is expensive today. That's highlighted by the lofty levels of the S&amp;P 500 index, but the excesses are broader than that, considering recent hot trends like AI and meme stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特並沒有停止投資，你可能也不應該停止。但他非常挑剔，你也應該同樣挑剔。所有這些現金是一個警告，表明今天市場價格昂貴。這一點在標準普爾 500 指數的高位上得到了強調，但考慮到最近熱門趨勢如人工智能和迷因股票，過度現象更為廣泛。</p>
</div><p>If you follow Buffett, pay attention to the warning that his actions are giving. It's probably a time to be more cautious than aggressive when you make your investment decisions. Benjamin Graham would likely tell you the same thing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你關注巴菲特，請注意他的行動所發出的警告。當你做出投資決策時，可能是時候更加謹慎而不是激進。本傑明·格雷厄姆可能也會告訴你同樣的事情。</p>
</div>

Warren Buffett's $344 Billion Warning to Wall Street Has Become Deafening

- 巴菲特的投資策略受本傑明·格雷厄姆影響，強調價值投資。  
- 目前，巴菲特持有 3440 億美元現金，反映市場高估。  
- 投資者應謹慎，市場可能存在泡沫風險。  

沃倫·巴菲特對華爾街的 3440 億美元警告已經變得震耳欲聾