<p>最近，華爾街的三大主要股指均攀升至新的收盤歷史高點。這一漲幅的主要催化劑是投資者對顛覆性技術進步的樂觀情緒，例如人工智能（AI）的發展。</p>
<p>但在過去六個多月的快速上漲中，不僅僅是人工智能在發揮作用。量子計算的出現使得四隻純粹的量子計算股票飛漲。<strong>IonQ</strong>(IONQ -3.92%)、<strong>Rigetti Computing</strong>(RGTI -3.31%)、<strong>D-Wave Quantum</strong>(QBTS -5.51%) 和 <strong>Quantum Computing, Inc.</strong>(QUBT -2.19%) 在截至 10 月 15 日的過去 12 個月中，分別上漲了 570%、6590%、4340% 和 2830%。</p>
<p>如此巨大的漲幅往往會引發 “FOMO”（錯失恐懼症）。不幸的是，歷史為量子計算的純粹股票描繪了不同且嚴峻的前景。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzgyNjEvcm9ja2V0LWNvaW5zLWNhbGN1bGF0b3ItZmluYW5jaWFsLW1ldHJpY3MtdG8tbW9vbi1jcnlwdG8taW52ZXN0LWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzgyNjEvcm9ja2V0LWNvaW5zLWNhbGN1bGF0b3ItZmluYW5jaWFsLW1ldHJpY3MtdG8tbW9vbi1jcnlwdG8taW52ZXN0LWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>量子計算機的長期前景光明</h2>
<p>展望未來，華爾街最新的熱門技術的潛力令人興奮。量子計算依賴於專用計算機和量子力學原理，能夠解決經典計算機無法處理的複雜方程，提供在各種行業和環境中解決難題的能力。</p>
<p>儘管這不是一個完整的列表，量子計算機可以用於：</p>
<ul>
<li>加速人工智能算法的學習能力，從而提高大型語言模型的效率和潛力。</li>
<li>運行分子相互作用模擬，以確定生物技術和製藥公司在研究新療法時的最佳行動方案。</li>
<li>提高天氣預報和氣候建模的準確性和效率。</li>
<li>破解和改進基於人工智能和機器學習的網絡安全平台，以增強最終用户和網絡的安全性。</li>
</ul>
<p>在線出版物《Quantum Insider》認為，這項技術在十年內可以為全球經濟增加 1 萬億美元的價值。同時，波士頓諮詢集團的分析師預計，到 2040 年，量子計算將在全球創造 4500 億到 8500 億美元的經濟價值。</p>
<p>我們還見證了一些量子計算服務採用的早期證據。<strong>亞馬遜</strong> 的量子計算服務 Braket，依託其全球領先的雲基礎設施服務平台 Amazon Web Services，為其訂閲者提供了來自 IonQ 和 Rigetti Computing 的量子計算機的訪問。</p>
<p>從理論上講，這項技術有潛力加速美國企業的長期增長率，並改善全球的生活質量。但在此刻，基於歷史的教訓，量子計算股票是華爾街上最危險的投資。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzgyNjEvc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtY3Jhc2gtaW52ZXN0LWJyb2tlci10YWJsZXQtY3J5cHRvLXBsdW5nZS1idWJibGUtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzgyNjEvc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtY3Jhc2gtaW52ZXN0LWJyb2tlci10YWJsZXQtY3J5cHRvLXBsdW5nZS1idWJibGUtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>量子計算股票投資者可能會面臨嚴峻的覺醒</h2>
<p>歷史往往是投資者的盟友。例如，歷史告訴我們，在過去的 20 年中，沒有一個滾動的 20 年期間 <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> 的總回報（包括股息）是負的。這是一個相當強烈的相關性，支持樂觀的長期投資者。</p>
<p>與此同時，歷史為 IonQ、Rigetti Computing、D-Wave Quantum 和 Quantum Computing, Inc.的投資者提供了兩個嚴峻的警告。</p>
<p>首先，現實是，過去三十多年來，每一次顛覆性技術創新和熱門趨勢都經歷了最終的泡沫破裂事件。從 90 年代中期的互聯網開始，我們見證了無數技術和下一個熱門趨勢被炒作並未能達到最初的期望，包括基因組解碼、中國股票、納米技術、3D 打印、區塊鏈技術、大麻和元宇宙。</p>
<p>一次又一次，投資者表現出高估新創新或熱門趨勢早期採用和效用的傾向。每一項顛覆性技術都需要充足的時間來成熟，<em>沒有例外</em>。</p>
<p>在量子計算擴展的極早期階段，我們看到 IonQ、Rigetti、D-Wave Quantum 和 Quantum Computing, Inc.的虧損不斷加劇。此時，這項技術的推廣仍處於初期階段，企業距離優化量子計算解決方案還遠得很。簡而言之，目前這項技術尚未成為美國企業的盈利生成器或顛覆者。</p>
<p>然而，IonQ、Rigetti、D-Wave 和 Quantum Computing, Inc.的股票卻在交易時表現得彷彿這是一項優化的技術。歷史告訴我們，這種差異將導致投資者的高期望未能實現。</p>
<p>另一個絕對不能被忽視或美化的歷史阻力是量子計算股票的估值——特別是這些高飛純粹股票的市銷率（P/S 比率）。</p>
<p>在 2000 年 3 月互聯網泡沫破裂之前，主導互聯網革命的上市公司通常在市銷率達到 30 到略高於 40 時達到峯值。歷史表明，行業領導者的市銷率在這一範圍內或接近這一範圍是不可持續的。</p>
<p>截至 10 月 15 日，華爾街量子計算明星的市銷率（基於過去 12 個月）為：</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>IonQ</strong>：316</li>
<li><strong>Rigetti Computing</strong>：1,803</li>
<li><strong>D-Wave Quantum</strong>：515</li>
<li><strong>Quantum Computing, Inc.</strong>：10,005</li>
</ul>
<p>即使我們考慮到這四隻純粹股票在未來兩年內的雙位數和三位數年銷售增長，基於華爾街對 2027 年的共識銷售預測，它們各自的市銷率也僅會降至：</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>IonQ</strong>: 79.9（估計）</li>
<li><strong>Rigetti Computing</strong>: 456.6（估計）</li>
<li><strong>D-Wave Quantum</strong>: 215.7（估計）</li>
<li><strong>Quantum Computing, Inc.</strong>: 475.4（估計）</li>
</ul>
<p>考慮到美國企業距離量子計算機的廣泛應用和實用性還有多遠，這些超高的估值是無法合理化的。如果歷史告訴我們，市場領導者的市銷率在 30 到 40 之間是不可持續的，那麼想象一下，對於四家未經驗證的企業來説，當其市銷率比這一歷史高峰區間高出 2 倍到 12 倍，並以未來兩年的收入定價時，將會面臨什麼樣的局面！</p>

RGTI

QBTS

IONQ

<p>這篇文章討論了量子計算公司 IonQ、Rigetti Computing、D-Wave Quantum 和 Quantum Computing, Inc.的股價飆升，這些公司在過去一年中獲得了巨大的收益。然而，文章警告説，歷史表明這些股票可能是危險的投資，因為過去存在技術泡沫的趨勢。儘管量子計算具有顯著的經濟價值潛力，但這些公司的當前估值和財務損失表明，它們可能尚未準備好滿足投資者的期望。文章強調了對潛在投資者在該領域的謹慎態度</p>

<p>Recently, all three of Wall Street's major stock indexes climbed to fresh record-closing highs. The primary catalyst fueling these gains is investor optimism tied to game-changing technological advances, such as the evolution of artificial intelligence (AI).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近，華爾街的三大主要股指均攀升至新的收盤歷史高點。這一漲幅的主要催化劑是投資者對顛覆性技術進步的樂觀情緒，例如人工智能（AI）的發展。</p>
</div><p>But it's not just AI responsible for this breakneck rally over the last six-plus months. The emergence of quantum computing has sent four pure-play stocks into the stratosphere. <strong>IonQ</strong>(IONQ -3.92%), <strong>Rigetti Computing</strong>(RGTI -3.31%), <strong>D-Wave Quantum</strong>(QBTS -5.51%), and <strong>Quantum Computing, Inc.</strong>(QUBT -2.19%) have respectively soared by 570%, 6,590%, 4,340%, and 2,830% over the trailing-12-month period, as of the closing bell on Oct. 15.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在過去六個多月的快速上漲中，不僅僅是人工智能在發揮作用。量子計算的出現使得四隻純粹的量子計算股票飛漲。<strong>IonQ</strong>(IONQ -3.92%)、<strong>Rigetti Computing</strong>(RGTI -3.31%)、<strong>D-Wave Quantum</strong>(QBTS -5.51%) 和 <strong>Quantum Computing, Inc.</strong>(QUBT -2.19%) 在截至 10 月 15 日的過去 12 個月中，分別上漲了 570%、6590%、4340% 和 2830%。</p>
</div><p>Gains of this magnitude tend to incite &#34;FOMO&#34; (the fear of missing out). Unfortunately, history paints a different and dire picture for quantum computing's pure-play stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如此巨大的漲幅往往會引發 “FOMO”（錯失恐懼症）。不幸的是，歷史為量子計算的純粹股票描繪了不同且嚴峻的前景。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzgyNjEvcm9ja2V0LWNvaW5zLWNhbGN1bGF0b3ItZmluYW5jaWFsLW1ldHJpY3MtdG8tbW9vbi1jcnlwdG8taW52ZXN0LWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F838261%2Frocket-coins-calculator-financial-metrics-to-moon-crypto-invest-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>The long-term future for quantum computers is bright</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>量子計算機的長期前景光明</h2>
</div><p>When looking out to the horizon, it's easy to get excited about the potential of Wall Street's latest hyped technology. Quantum computing, which relies on specialized computers and the principles of quantum mechanics to solve complex equations that classical computers are incapable of, offers the ability to tackle difficult problems in a variety of industries and settings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展望未來，華爾街最新的熱門技術的潛力令人興奮。量子計算依賴於專用計算機和量子力學原理，能夠解決經典計算機無法處理的複雜方程，提供在各種行業和環境中解決難題的能力。</p>
</div><p>Though far from a complete list, quantum computers can be used to:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管這不是一個完整的列表，量子計算機可以用於：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Speed up the learning capabilities of AI algorithms, which can expedite the efficiency and potential of large language models.</li>
<li>Run molecular interaction simulations to determine the best course of action for biotech and pharmaceutical companies when researching new therapies.</li>
<li>Improve the accuracy and efficiency of weather forecasting and climate modeling.</li>
<li>Break and improve AI- and machine learning-driven cybersecurity platforms to enhance end-user and network safety.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>加速人工智能算法的學習能力，從而提高大型語言模型的效率和潛力。</li>
<li>運行分子相互作用模擬，以確定生物技術和製藥公司在研究新療法時的最佳行動方案。</li>
<li>提高天氣預報和氣候建模的準確性和效率。</li>
<li>破解和改進基於人工智能和機器學習的網絡安全平台，以增強最終用户和網絡的安全性。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Online publication The Quantum Insider believes this technology can add $1 trillion in global economic value in a decade. Meanwhile, the analysts at Boston Consulting Group are looking for between $450 billion and $850 billion in economic value to be created worldwide from quantum computing by 2040.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在線出版物《Quantum Insider》認為，這項技術在十年內可以為全球經濟增加 1 萬億美元的價值。同時，波士頓諮詢集團的分析師預計，到 2040 年，量子計算將在全球創造 4500 億到 8500 億美元的經濟價值。</p>
</div><p>We've also witnessed some very early evidence of quantum computing service adoption. <strong>Amazon</strong>'s quantum computing service Braket, which is operated on its world-leading cloud infrastructure service platform Amazon Web Services, is giving its subscribers access to quantum computers from IonQ and Rigetti Computing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我們還見證了一些量子計算服務採用的早期證據。<strong>亞馬遜</strong> 的量子計算服務 Braket，依託其全球領先的雲基礎設施服務平台 Amazon Web Services，為其訂閲者提供了來自 IonQ 和 Rigetti Computing 的量子計算機的訪問。</p>
</div><p>On paper, this technology has the potential to accelerate corporate America's long-term growth rate and improve quality of life around the world. But at this very moment, quantum computing stocks are the most dangerous investment on Wall Street, based on what history tells us.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從理論上講，這項技術有潛力加速美國企業的長期增長率，並改善全球的生活質量。但在此刻，基於歷史的教訓，量子計算股票是華爾街上最危險的投資。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzgyNjEvc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtY3Jhc2gtaW52ZXN0LWJyb2tlci10YWJsZXQtY3J5cHRvLXBsdW5nZS1idWJibGUtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F838261%2Fstock-chart-crash-invest-broker-tablet-crypto-plunge-bubble-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Quantum computing stock investors are likely in for a rude awakening</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>量子計算股票投資者可能會面臨嚴峻的覺醒</h2>
</div><p>More often than not, history is an ally of investors. For instance, history tells us that there hasn't been a rolling 20-year period where the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> has delivered a negative total return, including dividends. This is a pretty resounding correlation in favor of optimistic, long-term investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>歷史往往是投資者的盟友。例如，歷史告訴我們，在過去的 20 年中，沒有一個滾動的 20 年期間 <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> 的總回報（包括股息）是負的。這是一個相當強烈的相關性，支持樂觀的長期投資者。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, history offers two dire warnings for investors in IonQ, Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum, and Quantum Computing, Inc.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，歷史為 IonQ、Rigetti Computing、D-Wave Quantum 和 Quantum Computing, Inc.的投資者提供了兩個嚴峻的警告。</p>
</div><p>Firstly, there's the reality that every game-changing technological innovation and hyped trend for more than three decades has navigated its way through an eventual bubble-bursting event. Beginning with the internet in the mid-1990s, we've witnessed a myriad of technologies and next-big-thing trends be hyped and fail to live up to initial expectations, including genome decoding, China stocks, nanotechnology, 3D printing, blockchain technology, cannabis, and the metaverse.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，現實是，過去三十多年來，每一次顛覆性技術創新和熱門趨勢都經歷了最終的泡沫破裂事件。從 90 年代中期的互聯網開始，我們見證了無數技術和下一個熱門趨勢被炒作並未能達到最初的期望，包括基因組解碼、中國股票、納米技術、3D 打印、區塊鏈技術、大麻和元宇宙。</p>
</div><p>Time and again, investors have demonstrated a willingness to overestimate the early innings adoption and utility of a new innovation or hyped trend. Every game-changing technology needs ample time to mature, <em>without exception</em>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一次又一次，投資者表現出高估新創新或熱門趨勢早期採用和效用的傾向。每一項顛覆性技術都需要充足的時間來成熟，<em>沒有例外</em>。</p>
</div><p>In the extremely early stages of quantum computing's expansion, we're seeing IonQ, Rigetti, D-Wave Quantum, and Quantum Computing, Inc., lose money hand over fist. It's also so early in the rollout of this technology that businesses aren't remotely close to optimizing quantum computing solutions. In short, this technology isn't a profit-generator or game-changer for corporate America, as of yet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在量子計算擴展的極早期階段，我們看到 IonQ、Rigetti、D-Wave Quantum 和 Quantum Computing, Inc.的虧損不斷加劇。此時，這項技術的推廣仍處於初期階段，企業距離優化量子計算解決方案還遠得很。簡而言之，目前這項技術尚未成為美國企業的盈利生成器或顛覆者。</p>
</div><p>However, IonQ, Rigetti, D-Wave, and Quantum Computing, Inc., stocks are trading as if it's an optimized technology. History tells us this disparity will result in lofty investor expectations not being met.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，IonQ、Rigetti、D-Wave 和 Quantum Computing, Inc.的股票卻在交易時表現得彷彿這是一項優化的技術。歷史告訴我們，這種差異將導致投資者的高期望未能實現。</p>
</div><p>The other historical headwind that absolutely cannot be swept under the rug or sugarcoated in any way is quantum computing stock valuations -- specifically the price-to-sales (P/S) ratios of these high-flying pure-plays.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一個絕對不能被忽視或美化的歷史阻力是量子計算股票的估值——特別是這些高飛純粹股票的市銷率（P/S 比率）。</p>
</div><p>Prior to the bursting of the dot-com bubble in March 2000, publicly traded companies leading the internet revolution commonly peaked at P/S ratios ranging from 30 to slightly over 40. History has shown that P/S ratios at or near this range from industry leaders aren't sustainable over an extended period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2000 年 3 月互聯網泡沫破裂之前，主導互聯網革命的上市公司通常在市銷率達到 30 到略高於 40 時達到峯值。歷史表明，行業領導者的市銷率在這一範圍內或接近這一範圍是不可持續的。</p>
</div><p>On a trailing-12-month basis, the P/S ratios for Wall Street's quantum computing darlings are (as of the closing bell on Oct. 15):</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 10 月 15 日，華爾街量子計算明星的市銷率（基於過去 12 個月）為：</p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>IonQ</strong>: 316</li>
<li><strong>Rigetti Computing</strong>: 1,803</li>
<li><strong>D-Wave Quantum</strong>: 515</li>
<li><strong>Quantum Computing, Inc.</strong>: 10,005</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>IonQ</strong>：316</li>
<li><strong>Rigetti Computing</strong>：1,803</li>
<li><strong>D-Wave Quantum</strong>：515</li>
<li><strong>Quantum Computing, Inc.</strong>：10,005</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Even if we factor in double- and triple-digit annual sales growth over the next two years for these four pure-plays, their respective P/S ratios, based on Wall Street's consensus sales forecasts in 2027, would respectively only fall to:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使我們考慮到這四隻純粹股票在未來兩年內的雙位數和三位數年銷售增長，基於華爾街對 2027 年的共識銷售預測，它們各自的市銷率也僅會降至：</p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>IonQ</strong>: 79.9 (est.)</li>
<li><strong>Rigetti Computing</strong>: 456.6 (est.)</li>
<li><strong>D-Wave Quantum</strong>: 215.7 (est.)</li>
<li><strong>Quantum Computing, Inc.</strong>: 475.4 (est.)</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>IonQ</strong>: 79.9（估計）</li>
<li><strong>Rigetti Computing</strong>: 456.6（估計）</li>
<li><strong>D-Wave Quantum</strong>: 215.7（估計）</li>
<li><strong>Quantum Computing, Inc.</strong>: 475.4（估計）</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Given how far away corporate America is from the widespread adoption and utility of quantum computers, these ultra-premium valuations can't be justified. If history tells us that P/S ratios of 30 to 40 for market leaders aren't sustainable, imagine what awaits four unproven businesses with P/S ratios that are 2X to 12X above this historical peak range when priced at revenue two years into the future!</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考慮到美國企業距離量子計算機的廣泛應用和實用性還有多遠，這些超高的估值是無法合理化的。如果歷史告訴我們，市場領導者的市銷率在 30 到 40 之間是不可持續的，那麼想象一下，對於四家未經驗證的企業來説，當其市銷率比這一歷史高峰區間高出 2 倍到 12 倍，並以未來兩年的收入定價時，將會面臨什麼樣的局面！</p>
</div>

量子計算股票 IonQ、Rigetti Computing 和 D-Wave Quantum 是否是華爾街最危險的投資？歷史數據表明確實如此