<p>談到 <strong>奈飛</strong>(NFLX 2.77%)，愛情並不是盲目的。作為全球領先的高端視頻流媒體服務，奈飛需要在每個季度證明自己。現在是財報季，奈飛需要向你展示它在節目中建立的聯繫能否在現實世界中存活。</p>
<p>如果你不是奈飛熱門真人秀節目 <em>愛情盲選</em> 的粉絲，可能有些內容你會覺得難以理解。請耐心聽我説。奈飛將在週二下午公佈其第三季度業績。對於這家流媒體服務的風向標股票來説，有三件事情是絕對不能搞砸的。讓我們深入探討一下投資者在本週關鍵財務更新中應該關注的內容。</p>
<h2>1. 重新回到勝利的軌道</h2>
<p>奈飛的投資者很難抱怨。過去一年，該股的表現遠超市場，長期投資的表現也是如此。然而，在今年夏季的第二季度更新後，有兩個顯著的連勝紀錄宣告結束。</p>
<p>季度報告似乎滿足了投資者喜歡看到的所有關鍵指標。16% 的收入增長超出了預期，並且也輕鬆超過了華爾街的利潤目標。它還提高了指引。然而，市場仍然不為所動，導致股價在隨後的交易日下跌。</p>
<p>“超預期並提高指引” 的表現是奈飛的常態。但股價在消息發佈後下滑卻讓人感到困惑。在過去的類似超預期結果中，股價通常會上漲。以下是過去一年奈飛財報發佈後股價的反應：</p>
<p>-2025 年 7 月 18 日：下跌 5%
-2025 年 4 月 21 日：上漲 2%
-2025 年 1 月 22 日：上漲 10%
-2024 年 10 月 18 日：上漲 11%</p>
<p>單日下跌 5% 並不會破壞投資組合。過去一年，該股仍上漲了驚人的 74%。這 <em>確實</em> 表明市場對奈飛的期望提高了。夏季更新結束了一個更長的連勝紀錄。看看該股在本週財務對決前的三年走勢圖。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzg5NDYvc2NyZWVuc2hvdC0yMDI1LTEwLTIwLWF0LTg1OTM4YW0ucG5nJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzg5NDYvc2NyZWVuc2hvdC0yMDI1LTEwLTIwLWF0LTg1OTM4YW0ucG5nJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>數據來源：YCharts。</p>
<p>欣賞整體股票走勢圖是可以的。奈飛在過去三年中股價增長了四倍多。然而，仔細看看圖表上每個紫色的 E。那是奈飛發佈季度業績的日子。如果你回顧 2023 年第三季度——從左數第四個 E——你會注意到在財報發佈之間，股價是上漲的。</p>
<p>每日波動很有趣，但報告之間的三個月波動才是真正的財富創造者。奈飛在連續七個季度的財報發佈之間股價上漲，直到今年第二季度。除非在週二收盤前出現猛烈反彈，否則這又是一個即將結束的連勝紀錄。一個出色的季度業績可以幫助奈飛開啓新的日常和季度價格上漲的連勝紀錄。</p>
<h2>2. 考慮漲價</h2>
<p>在第三季度業績發佈前的預期是合理的。分析師預計截至 9 月的三個月收入將加速增長，增長 17% 至 115 億美元。他們預計盈利增長更快，激增 29% 至每股 6.97 美元。</p>
<p>這些都是大幅增長。分析師預測的收入增長將是奈飛四年來最大的收入增長。問題在於——也是我稱預期為合理的原因——這基本上是奈飛三個月前為自己設定的標準。七月份的指引預計第三季度每股淨收入為 6.87 美元，收入增長 17%。</p>
<p>報告中更有趣的部分是公司是否會對其服務的漲價做出任何評論。競爭對手 <strong>華特迪士尼</strong> 上個月宣佈了大多數高端流媒體服務的漲價。這些漲價恰好在週二生效。這並不令人驚訝。這是媒體巨頭連續第四年提高 Disney+ 和 Hulu 的訂閲價格。奈飛多年來也提高了價格，最近一次是在一月份。它可能會在報告中暗示即將到來的價格變動，這可能會對股價產生影響。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzg5NDYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTI5NDYwNDg5MS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzg5NDYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTI5NDYwNDg5MS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>3. 可能是時候進行股票拆分了</h2>
<p>毫無疑問，奈飛早該進行股票拆分了。自 2015 年夏季以來，它就沒有宣佈過拆分。在此期間，股價已經翻了 1100 倍，因此可以説股票拆分並不是必要的。然而，隨着許多其他增長股在近年來進行股票拆分，奈飛的拆分只是時間問題。</p>
<p>對本週股票拆分的潛在時機持懷疑態度是很容易的。奈飛在過去七個季度股價上漲時並沒有宣佈拆分。為什麼在上次財務更新後股價下跌時會這樣做呢？這是一個合理的觀點，但如果奈飛的報告確實強勁——可能還伴隨着一些令人鼓舞的發展或漲價——這可能足以促使股票拆分的發生。</p>
<p>保持關注。你永遠不知道奈飛何時會像 <em>KPop Demon Hunters</em> ——另一部受歡迎的奈飛節目——那樣反擊反對者。</p>

奈飛

<p>Netflix 即將公佈其第三季度財報，投資者密切關注三個關鍵領域：1）在近期股價下跌的情況下，儘管收入增長強勁，但需要重新獲得動能；2）在迪士尼最近提價後，潛在的價格上漲；3）自 2015 年以來 Netflix 尚未進行股票拆分，是否可能進行股票拆分。分析師預計收入將增長 17%，達到 115 億美元，每股收益將增長 29%，達到 6.97 美元。這份財報的結果可能會對 Netflix 的股價表現產生重大影響</p>

<p>When it comes to <strong>Netflix</strong>(NFLX 2.77%), love isn't blind. The world's leading premium video streaming service needs to prove itself on a quarterly basis. It's earnings season now, and it's up to Netflix to show that the connection it made with you in the pod can survive in the real world.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>談到 <strong>奈飛</strong>(NFLX 2.77%)，愛情並不是盲目的。作為全球領先的高端視頻流媒體服務，奈飛需要在每個季度證明自己。現在是財報季，奈飛需要向你展示它在節目中建立的聯繫能否在現實世界中存活。</p>
</div><p>If you're not a fan of the popular <em>Love Is Blind</em> reality series on Netflix, some of that won't make sense. Bear with me. Netflix will announce its third-quarter results on Tuesday afternoon. There are three things that the streaming service stocks bellwether can't afford to mess up. Let's dive in to see what investors should watch with this week's critical financial update.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你不是奈飛熱門真人秀節目 <em>愛情盲選</em> 的粉絲，可能有些內容你會覺得難以理解。請耐心聽我説。奈飛將在週二下午公佈其第三季度業績。對於這家流媒體服務的風向標股票來説，有三件事情是絕對不能搞砸的。讓我們深入探討一下投資者在本週關鍵財務更新中應該關注的內容。</p>
</div><h2>1. Getting back to winning again</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>1. 重新回到勝利的軌道</h2>
</div><p>It's hard for Netflix investors to complain. The stock is trouncing the market over the past year, just as it has for longer investing horizons. However, two notable winning streaks came to an end after this summer's second-quarter update.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>奈飛的投資者很難抱怨。過去一年，該股的表現遠超市場，長期投資的表現也是如此。然而，在今年夏季的第二季度更新後，有兩個顯著的連勝紀錄宣告結束。</p>
</div><p>The quarterly report seemed to check off all of the right boxes that investors like to see. Revenue growth of 16% exceeded expectations, and it also landed comfortably ahead of Wall Street profit targets. It also boosted its guidance. The market was still unimpressed, sending the shares lower the following market day.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>季度報告似乎滿足了投資者喜歡看到的所有關鍵指標。16% 的收入增長超出了預期，並且也輕鬆超過了華爾街的利潤目標。它還提高了指引。然而，市場仍然不為所動，導致股價在隨後的交易日下跌。</p>
</div><p>The &#34;beat and raise&#34; performance is par for the course when it comes to Netflix. Sliding on the news is the head-scratcher. The shares had moved higher on similar better-than-expected results in the recent past. Here is how the shares reacted on the trading day following its earnings release over the past year:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“超預期並提高指引” 的表現是奈飛的常態。但股價在消息發佈後下滑卻讓人感到困惑。在過去的類似超預期結果中，股價通常會上漲。以下是過去一年奈飛財報發佈後股價的反應：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>July 18, 2025: Down 5%</li>
<li>April 21, 2025: Up 2%</li>
<li>Jan. 22, 2025: Up 10%</li>
<li>Oct. 18, 2024: Up 11%</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-2025 年 7 月 18 日：下跌 5%
-2025 年 4 月 21 日：上漲 2%
-2025 年 1 月 22 日：上漲 10%
-2024 年 10 月 18 日：上漲 11%</p>
</div><p>The 5% decline in a single day isn't a portfolio breaker. The stock is still up a whopping 74% over the past year. It <em>is</em> a sign that the market has heightened expectations when it comes to Netflix. The summertime update ended an even longer streak. Check out the stock's three-year chart heading into this week's financial showdown.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>單日下跌 5% 並不會破壞投資組合。過去一年，該股仍上漲了驚人的 74%。這 <em>確實</em> 表明市場對奈飛的期望提高了。夏季更新結束了一個更長的連勝紀錄。看看該股在本週財務對決前的三年走勢圖。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzg5NDYvc2NyZWVuc2hvdC0yMDI1LTEwLTIwLWF0LTg1OTM4YW0ucG5nJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F838946%2Fscreenshot-2025-10-20-at-85938am.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Data source: YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源：YCharts。</p>
</div><p>It's fine to admire the overall stock chart. Netflix has more than quadrupled over the past three years. However, take a closer look at every purple E on the chart. That is the day that Netflix offered up its quarterly results. If you go back to the third quarter of 2023 -- the fourth E from the left -- you will notice that the stock has moved higher between earnings reports.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欣賞整體股票走勢圖是可以的。奈飛在過去三年中股價增長了四倍多。然而，仔細看看圖表上每個紫色的 E。那是奈飛發佈季度業績的日子。如果你回顧 2023 年第三季度——從左數第四個 E——你會注意到在財報發佈之間，股價是上漲的。</p>
</div><p>The daily moves are interesting, but the three-month move between the reports is the real wealth-creator. Netflix has moved higher between earnings reports for seven consecutive quarters, until the second quarter of this year. Barring a torrid rally before Tuesday's close, this is another winning streak that is coming to an end. A blowout quarter can help Netflix start a new winning streak for the daily and quarterly price actions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>每日波動很有趣，但報告之間的三個月波動才是真正的財富創造者。奈飛在連續七個季度的財報發佈之間股價上漲，直到今年第二季度。除非在週二收盤前出現猛烈反彈，否則這又是一個即將結束的連勝紀錄。一個出色的季度業績可以幫助奈飛開啓新的日常和季度價格上漲的連勝紀錄。</p>
</div><h2>2. Considering price hikes</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2. 考慮漲價</h2>
</div><p>Expectations heading into the third-quarter reveal are fair. Analysts see revenue accelerating for the three months ending in September, rising 17% to $11.5 billion. They see profitability growing even faster, surging 29% to $6.97 a share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在第三季度業績發佈前的預期是合理的。分析師預計截至 9 月的三個月收入將加速增長，增長 17% 至 115 億美元。他們預計盈利增長更快，激增 29% 至每股 6.97 美元。</p>
</div><p>These are big jumps. The top-line jump that analysts are modeling would be Netflix's biggest increase in revenue in more than four years. The problem -- and the reason why I called expectations fair -- is that this is essentially the bar that Netflix set for itself three months ago. Guidance back in July called for net income of $6.87 a share on a similar 17% step-up in revenue for the third quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些都是大幅增長。分析師預測的收入增長將是奈飛四年來最大的收入增長。問題在於——也是我稱預期為合理的原因——這基本上是奈飛三個月前為自己設定的標準。七月份的指引預計第三季度每股淨收入為 6.87 美元，收入增長 17%。</p>
</div><p>The more interesting part of the report to watch for is if the company makes any comments on raising prices for its service. Rival <strong>Walt Disney</strong> announced hikes across most of its premium streaming services last month. They coincidentally kick in on Tuesday. It wasn't a surprise. This is the fourth year in a row that the media stock giant has lifted subscription prices for Disney+ and Hulu. Netflix has also increased its rates over the years, and its last move came in January. It could signal an upcoming pricing change during the report, potentially moving the stock on <em>that</em> news.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>報告中更有趣的部分是公司是否會對其服務的漲價做出任何評論。競爭對手 <strong>華特迪士尼</strong> 上個月宣佈了大多數高端流媒體服務的漲價。這些漲價恰好在週二生效。這並不令人驚訝。這是媒體巨頭連續第四年提高 Disney+ 和 Hulu 的訂閲價格。奈飛多年來也提高了價格，最近一次是在一月份。它可能會在報告中暗示即將到來的價格變動，這可能會對股價產生影響。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mzg5NDYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTI5NDYwNDg5MS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F838946%2Fgettyimages-1294604891.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>3. It could be time for a stock split</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>3. 可能是時候進行股票拆分了</h2>
</div><p>There's no denying that Netflix is long overdue for a stock split. It hasn't declared a split since the summer of 2015. The stock is head-turning 1,100-bagger in that time, so one can argue that a stock split isn't necessary. However, with so many other growth stocks with four-figure price points executing stock splits in recent years it's just a matter of time for Netflix.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毫無疑問，奈飛早該進行股票拆分了。自 2015 年夏季以來，它就沒有宣佈過拆分。在此期間，股價已經翻了 1100 倍，因此可以説股票拆分並不是必要的。然而，隨着許多其他增長股在近年來進行股票拆分，奈飛的拆分只是時間問題。</p>
</div><p>It's easy to be skeptical about the potential timing of a stock split this week. Netflix didn't announce one in the previous seven quarters when its stock was ascending. Why would it do so now when it has moved lower since its last financial update? It's a fair point, but if Netflix has a truly strong report -- potentially padded with some encouraging developments or a price hike -- it could be enough to put a stock split in play.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對本週股票拆分的潛在時機持懷疑態度是很容易的。奈飛在過去七個季度股價上漲時並沒有宣佈拆分。為什麼在上次財務更新後股價下跌時會這樣做呢？這是一個合理的觀點，但如果奈飛的報告確實強勁——可能還伴隨着一些令人鼓舞的發展或漲價——這可能足以促使股票拆分的發生。</p>
</div><p>Stay close. You never know when Netflix will go <em>KPop Demon Hunters</em> -- another piece of popular Netflix programming -- on the naysayers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>保持關注。你永遠不知道奈飛何時會像 <em>KPop Demon Hunters</em> ——另一部受歡迎的奈飛節目——那樣反擊反對者。</p>
</div>

3 Things Netflix Will Need to Get Right This Week

- Netflix 將於週二發佈第三季度財報，市場期待其業績表現。  
- 分析師預計收入將增長 17%，達到 115 億美元，盈利增長 29%。  
- 投資者關注 Netflix 是否會宣佈提價或進行股票拆分。  

奈飛本週需要搞定的三件事