<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Workers-at-a-base-metal-plant.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Workers-at-a-base-metal-plant.png"/></p>
<p>最近基礎金屬價格的急劇上漲促使德國商業銀行（Commerzbank AG）提高了對短期商品的展望。</p>
<p>德國商業銀行外匯和商品研究負責人阮氏蘭（Thu Lan Nguyen）在一份報告中表示：“我們已調整了基礎金屬價格預測，現在預計大多數情況下價格將高於之前的預期。”</p>
<blockquote>
<p>然而，我們認為，銅價的上漲在某種程度上是有些過早的，因為供應情況仍然良好，並且在短期內還有輕微的修正潛力。</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>價格預測</h2>
<p>這家德國銀行預計，到年底銅價將平均達到每噸 10,500 美元，而之前的預測為每噸 9,600 美元。</p>
<p>在鋁方面，該銀行預計年底鋁價將平均達到每噸 2,900 美元，而之前預測為每噸 2,600 美元。</p>
<p>鋅價也預計將平均達到每噸 3,000 美元，而之前為每噸 2,800 美元。</p>
<p>阮氏蘭表示：“在這裏，我們也認為上漲潛力暫時已經耗盡。”</p>
<p>然而，這家德國銀行下調了對鎳價的預測，預計鎳價將平均達到每噸 15,000 美元，而之前的預測為每噸 16,000 美元。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>在這裏，也明顯顯示出未來金屬生產的增長將不再那麼活躍，但鎳市場在可預見的未來將保持良好的供應，這對價格施加了下行壓力。</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>鋁溢價上漲</h2>
<p>美國鋁進口的價格溢價已達到歷史新高，繼續急劇上升。這是在月初短暫下跌之後的情況。</p>
<p>這種情況可能是由於國內供應短缺，受到 50% 的美國進口關税的影響，加上全球市場（美國以外）的供應緊縮。</p>
<p>歐洲溢價的上升表明了這一趨勢。年初時，由於美國的鋁關税過高，導致美國以外市場的供應情況暫時改善，這些溢價最初有所下降。</p>
<p>阮氏蘭表示：“然而，這種情況現在似乎已經結束。”</p>
<blockquote>
<p>自 10 月中旬以來，倫敦金屬交易所（LME）庫存的下降也表明，美國關税的影響並沒有持續太久。</p>
</blockquote>
<p>根據阮氏蘭的説法，10 月底庫存的顯著激增，超過了最近的下降，可能是由於一家大型商品交易商為金融交易交付庫存所致。</p>
<p>此後，庫存再次開始下降。這一下降趨勢，加上溢價的上升，表明中國——主要生產國——可能優先考慮國內和區域需求，這可能是由於金屬生產放緩。</p>
<p>此外，西方公司已停止考慮來自俄羅斯的金屬。在烏克蘭戰爭之前，俄羅斯是歐洲這一材料的重要供應國。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>如果有跡象表明中國將很快減少鋁的出口，溢價的上漲可能會繼續。</p>
</blockquote>
<p>德國商業銀行提高基礎金屬展望但在溢價飆升中下調鎳預測的文章首發於 Invezz。</p>

<p>德國商業銀行（Commerzbank AG）因近期價格上漲，提高了對基礎金屬的短期展望，預計到年底銅的平均價格將達到每噸 10,500 美元，鋁的平均價格將達到每噸 2,900 美元。然而，該行已將鎳的預測下調至每噸 15,000 美元，理由是市場供應充足。此外，由於國內供應短缺和全球市場收緊，美國的鋁進口溢價已達到創紀錄高位，這表明如果中國減少出口，鋁的價格可能會繼續上漲</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Workers-at-a-base-metal-plant.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Workers-at-a-base-metal-plant.png"/></p>
<p>The recent sharp price increase in base metal prices have prompted Commerzbank AG to raise their outlook for the commodities in the short-term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近基礎金屬價格的急劇上漲促使德國商業銀行（Commerzbank AG）提高了對短期商品的展望。</p>
</div><p>“We have adjusted our base metal price forecasts and now expect them to be higher than previously thought in most cases,” Thu Lan Nguyen, head of FX and commodity research at Commerzbank, said in a report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>德國商業銀行外匯和商品研究負責人阮氏蘭（Thu Lan Nguyen）在一份報告中表示：“我們已調整了基礎金屬價格預測，現在預計大多數情況下價格將高於之前的預期。”</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>However, we maintain that the rise in copper prices in particular was somewhat premature given the still favorable supply situation and see slight further potential for correction in the short term.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>然而，我們認為，銅價的上漲在某種程度上是有些過早的，因為供應情況仍然良好，並且在短期內還有輕微的修正潛力。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><h2>Price forecasts</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>價格預測</h2>
</div><p>The German bank expects copper prices to average $10,500 per ton by the end of the year compared with previous forecast of $9,600 per ton.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這家德國銀行預計，到年底銅價將平均達到每噸 10,500 美元，而之前的預測為每噸 9,600 美元。</p>
</div><p>In terms of aluminium, the bank sees prices averaging $2,900 per ton at the end of the year compared with $2,600 per ton predicted earlier.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在鋁方面，該銀行預計年底鋁價將平均達到每噸 2,900 美元，而之前預測為每噸 2,600 美元。</p>
</div><p>Zinc prices are also seen averaging $3,000 per ton compared with $2,800 per ton.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鋅價也預計將平均達到每噸 3,000 美元，而之前為每噸 2,800 美元。</p>
</div><p>“Here, too, we assume that the upside potential has been exhausted for the time being,” Nguyen said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阮氏蘭表示：“在這裏，我們也認為上漲潛力暫時已經耗盡。”</p>
</div><p>The German bank, however, scaled down its forecast for nickel prices, and expects prices to average $15,000 per ton against $16,000 per ton forecast previously.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，這家德國銀行下調了對鎳價的預測，預計鎳價將平均達到每噸 15,000 美元，而之前的預測為每噸 16,000 美元。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>Here, too, it is becoming apparent that metal production will grow less dynamically in the future, but the nickel market will remain well supplied for the foreseeable future, which is putting downward pressure on prices.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>在這裏，也明顯顯示出未來金屬生產的增長將不再那麼活躍，但鎳市場在可預見的未來將保持良好的供應，這對價格施加了下行壓力。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><h2>Aluminium premiums rise</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>鋁溢價上漲</h2>
</div><p>The price premiums for aluminium imports to the US have reached a new all-time high, continuing their sharp ascent. This follows a short dip at the start of the month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國鋁進口的價格溢價已達到歷史新高，繼續急劇上升。這是在月初短暫下跌之後的情況。</p>
</div><p>The situation is likely a result of domestic supply shortages, triggered by the 50% US import tariffs, combined with a tightening of supply in the global market outside of the US.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種情況可能是由於國內供應短缺，受到 50% 的美國進口關税的影響，加上全球市場（美國以外）的供應緊縮。</p>
</div><p>The rising premiums in Europe indicate this trend. Initially, these premiums dropped at the start of the year because the prohibitive US aluminium tariffs had temporarily improved the supply situation in markets outside the US.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>歐洲溢價的上升表明了這一趨勢。年初時，由於美國的鋁關税過高，導致美國以外市場的供應情況暫時改善，這些溢價最初有所下降。</p>
</div><p>“However, this now seems to be over,” Nguyen said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阮氏蘭表示：“然而，這種情況現在似乎已經結束。”</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>The decline in LME inventories since mid-October also indicates that the effect of US tariffs has not lasted long.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>自 10 月中旬以來，倫敦金屬交易所（LME）庫存的下降也表明，美國關税的影響並沒有持續太久。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>The significant jump in inventories at the end of October, which more than offset the recent decline, was likely the result of a large commodity trader delivering stock for financial deals, according to Nguyen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據阮氏蘭的説法，10 月底庫存的顯著激增，超過了最近的下降，可能是由於一家大型商品交易商為金融交易交付庫存所致。</p>
</div><p>Inventories have since begun falling again. This decline, coupled with increasing premiums, suggests that China—the primary producer—may be prioritising domestic and regional demand, likely due to a slowdown in metal production.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此後，庫存再次開始下降。這一下降趨勢，加上溢價的上升，表明中國——主要生產國——可能優先考慮國內和區域需求，這可能是由於金屬生產放緩。</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, Western companies have ceased considering metal sourced from Russia. Prior to the war in Ukraine, Russia was a significant supplier of this material to Europe.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，西方公司已停止考慮來自俄羅斯的金屬。在烏克蘭戰爭之前，俄羅斯是歐洲這一材料的重要供應國。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>If there are signs that China will soon be exporting less aluminium, the rise in premiums may continue.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>如果有跡象表明中國將很快減少鋁的出口，溢價的上漲可能會繼續。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>The post Commerzbank raises base metal outlook but cuts nickel forecast amid soaring premiums appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>德國商業銀行提高基礎金屬展望但在溢價飆升中下調鎳預測的文章首發於 Invezz。</p>
</div>

德國商業銀行上調了基本金屬的前景展望，但由於溢價飆升，下調了鎳的預測