<p>這是新興市場股票終於迎來轉機的一年嗎？在 2025 年初，MSCI 新興市場指數，即發展中經濟體股票的主要指標，接近 2010 年 9 月時的水平。相比之下，基準標準普爾 500 指數上漲了近 500%。\n 在過去的 15 年裏，新興市場股票的表現一直落後於發達市場的同行。這是經濟實力與投資回報之間最顯著的脱節之一——發展中國家在全球經濟產出中的份額從 2000 年的 25% 增加到去年的 45%。\n 然而，根據彭博社的數據，今年新興市場股票已經連續上漲了 10 個月，這是自 2004 年以來最長的上漲週期。MSCI 新興市場指數上漲了 30%，是自 2009 年以來的最佳表現。另一方面，跟蹤發達經濟體股票的 MSCI 世界指數上漲了約 19%。\n 在美國銀行最新的全球基金經理月度調查中，淨 27% 的受訪者表示他們在新興市場股票上持有超配頭寸，這是全球主要股票市場中最樂觀的立場。\n 然而，不僅僅是發展中經濟體的股票市場表現良好。整個新興市場資產類別的韌性跡象隨處可見。上週，中國以與美國基本相同的借貸成本發行了三年期和五年期美元計價債務，而摩根大通的美元計價新興市場主權債券指數的利差達到了自 2014 年以來的最低水平。\n 此外，地方貨幣債券今年以美元計價的回報超過了 16%，而流入新興市場債券和股票基金的資金有望在四年來首次以正值結束今年。\n\n 有幾個因素在起作用。首先，由於美國總統唐納德·特朗普的貿易和經濟政策引發的動盪，美元在今年上半年的表現是自 1973 年以來最差的。美元走弱對新興市場是個好消息，降低了以美元計價的債務的服務成本，從而緩解了金融條件。\n 其次，發展中國家的通貨膨脹上升速度低於發達經濟體。根據摩根大通的數據，9 月份新興市場的平均通貨膨脹率為 2.3%，而發達經濟體為 2.8%。\n 第三，關於關税的不確定性最糟糕的時期已經過去。雖然特朗普隨時可能重新發起貿易攻勢，但真相已經暴露。他的多次讓步削弱了他的信譽。此外，各國政府已經學會了如何應對特朗普，幫助緩解了貿易緊張局勢。\n\n\n 第四，亞洲的科技驅動經濟正在受益於生成性人工智能（AI）的崛起。由台灣和韓國股票推動的亞洲科技股主要指數在今年前 10 個月上漲了近 50%，是以科技為主的納斯達克綜合指數增幅的兩倍多。\n 第五，也是最重要的一點，新興市場股票在全球投資者中顯著被低配，經過多年的表現不佳。今年的資金流入明顯滯後於市場反彈。“即使是外資在美國股票中的小幅回撤，也可能釋放出數萬億的潛在資金流出。這些資金流出中即使有一小部分轉向新興市場，也可能產生重大影響，” Eastspring Investments 在一份報告中表示。\n 然而，新興市場資產的反彈仍處於早期階段。隨着對美元的做空押注逐漸消退，美元再次走強。自 9 月 16 日以來，美元指數上漲了 3%，主要是因為 “市場在説 ‘特朗普衝擊’ 已經結束。特朗普還有什麼可以震驚市場的舉動？我們自己也很難想出答案，” 德意志銀行的喬治·薩拉維洛斯表示。\n 儘管面臨政治、制度和財政問題，美國經濟的韌性超出了預期。這主要是因為更高的關税和對移民的打壓所帶來的影響被人工智能支出熱潮所抵消。\n\n\n 特朗普不僅僅是運氣好，美國仍然是 “最乾淨的髒襯衫”，受益於美元和美國國債市場的主導地位。只要對人工智能驅動的股票泡沫的擔憂沒有導致劇烈和持續的拋售，市場對美元的情緒應該會繼續改善，從而對新興市場施加更大壓力。\n 新興市場股票往往只有在發達市場股票上漲時才表現良好。這部分原因解釋了亞洲科技股的脆弱。這個月華爾街以科技為主的拋售將注意力集中在亞洲股市的集中風險上。\n 在美國股市中，前五大科技股佔據了超過 27% 的市值，而台灣半導體制造公司單獨佔據了台灣股市的 40%，三星電子和 SK 海力士共同佔據了韓國股市的 40%。\n 此外，新興市場的增長前景已不如往昔。這部分是由於中國的結構性下滑，但也因為發展中國家面臨的經濟和地緣政治挑戰十分嚴峻。\n15 年的表現不佳留下了傷痕。大多數全球投資者將今年發展中經濟體資產價格的反彈視為從美國多樣化投資的及時機會，而不是多年來表現優異的開始。關於新興市場復興的討論為時尚早。</p>

<p>新興市場的反彈既是逃離美國的結果，也是尋找價值的體現</p>

<p>Is this the year emerging market stocks finally turned the corner? At the start of 2025, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, the main gauge of equities in developing economies, was near the same level it was at in September 2010. The benchmark S&amp;P 500 index, by contrast, was up almost 500 per cent.\nFor the past 15 years, emerging market shares have underperformed their developed market peers. This is one of the most striking disconnects between economic heft – developing countries’ share of global economic output increased from 25 per cent in 2000 to 45 per cent last year – and investment returns.\nHowever, emerging market equities have risen for 10 straight months this year, their longest winning streak since 2004, according to Bloomberg data. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has gained 30 per cent, its best year since 2009. The MSCI World Index, on the other hand, which tracks stocks in advanced economies, is up about 19 per cent.\nIn Bank of America’s latest monthly global fund manager survey, a net 27 per cent of respondents said they had an overweight position on emerging market stocks, the most bullish stance among the world’s main equity markets.\nHowever, it is not just stock markets in developing economies that are performing well. Signs of resilience across the entire emerging market asset class abound. Last week, China issued three- and five-year dollar-denominated debt at essentially the same borrowing costs as the United States, while spreads on a JPMorgan index of US dollar-denominated emerging market sovereign bonds are at their lowest level since 2014.\nMoreover, local currency bonds have returned more than 16 per cent in dollar terms this year, while flows to emerging market bond and equity funds are on track to end the year in positive territory for the first time in four years.\n\nThere are several factors at play. First, the US dollar had its worst first half of the year since 1973 because of the turmoil unleashed by US President Donald Trump’s trade and economic policies. A weaker dollar is a boon to emerging markets, easing financial conditions by making it cheaper to service dollar-denominated debts.\nSecond, inflation in developing countries is rising at a slower pace than in developed economies. According to data from JPMorgan, the average headline rate of inflation in emerging markets in September stood at 2.3 per cent, compared with 2.8 per cent in advanced economies.\nThird, the worst of the uncertainty over tariffs has passed. While Trump could renew his trade offensive anytime, the cat is out of the bag. His repeated climbdowns have undermined his credibility. Moreover, governments have learned how to deal with Trump, helping ease trade tensions.\n\n\nFourth, technology-driven economies in Asia are benefiting from the rise of generative artificial intelligence (AI). The main index of Asian tech stocks, powered by Taiwanese and South Korean shares, gained almost 50 per cent in the first 10 months of this year, more than double the increase in the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index.\nFifth, and most importantly, emerging market stocks are significantly under-owned by global investors following years of underperformance. This year’s inflows have conspicuously lagged the rally. “Even a small pullback in foreign ownership [of US stocks] could unleash trillions in potential outflows. A modest shift of these outflows into [emerging markets] could have a significant impact,” Eastspring Investments said in a report.\nHowever, it is early days for the rebound in emerging market assets. The US dollar is strengthening again as bets against it unravel. Since September 16, the dollar index has risen 3 per cent, mainly because “the market is saying the ‘Trump shock’ is over. What else is there for President Trump to do to shock the market? We are struggling to come up with an answer ourselves”, said George Saravelos of Deutsche Bank.\nFor all its political, institutional and fiscal problems, the US economy has proved more resilient than expected. This is mainly because the fallout from higher tariffs and the crackdown on immigration has been offset by the AI spending boom.\n\n\nIt is not just that Trump has been lucky, but also that the US remains the “cleanest dirty shirt”, benefiting from the dominance of the dollar and US Treasury bond market. Provided that mounting fears about a bubble in AI-driven stocks do not lead to a sharp and sustained sell-off, sentiment towards the dollar should continue to improve, putting more pressure on emerging markets.\nEmerging market stocks tend to perform well only when their developed market peers are rallying. This is partly why Asian tech stocks are vulnerable. The tech-led sell-off on Wall Street this month has focused attention on concentration risks in Asian equity markets.\nWhile the top five tech stocks account for more than 27 per cent of the value of the US equity market, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company alone accounts for 40 per cent of Taiwan’s stock market while Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix together account for 40 per cent of South Korea’s equity market.\nMoreover, growth prospects in emerging markets are not what they used to be. This is partly because of the structural downturn in China, but also because of the acute economic and geopolitical challenges facing developing countries.\nFifteen years of underperformance have left their scars. Most global investors see this year’s rebound in asset prices in developing economies as a timely opportunity to diversify away from the US rather than the start of a multi-year period of outperformance. Talk of an emerging markets renaissance is premature.\n</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這是新興市場股票終於迎來轉機的一年嗎？在 2025 年初，MSCI 新興市場指數，即發展中經濟體股票的主要指標，接近 2010 年 9 月時的水平。相比之下，基準標準普爾 500 指數上漲了近 500%。\n 在過去的 15 年裏，新興市場股票的表現一直落後於發達市場的同行。這是經濟實力與投資回報之間最顯著的脱節之一——發展中國家在全球經濟產出中的份額從 2000 年的 25% 增加到去年的 45%。\n 然而，根據彭博社的數據，今年新興市場股票已經連續上漲了 10 個月，這是自 2004 年以來最長的上漲週期。MSCI 新興市場指數上漲了 30%，是自 2009 年以來的最佳表現。另一方面，跟蹤發達經濟體股票的 MSCI 世界指數上漲了約 19%。\n 在美國銀行最新的全球基金經理月度調查中，淨 27% 的受訪者表示他們在新興市場股票上持有超配頭寸，這是全球主要股票市場中最樂觀的立場。\n 然而，不僅僅是發展中經濟體的股票市場表現良好。整個新興市場資產類別的韌性跡象隨處可見。上週，中國以與美國基本相同的借貸成本發行了三年期和五年期美元計價債務，而摩根大通的美元計價新興市場主權債券指數的利差達到了自 2014 年以來的最低水平。\n 此外，地方貨幣債券今年以美元計價的回報超過了 16%，而流入新興市場債券和股票基金的資金有望在四年來首次以正值結束今年。\n\n 有幾個因素在起作用。首先，由於美國總統唐納德·特朗普的貿易和經濟政策引發的動盪，美元在今年上半年的表現是自 1973 年以來最差的。美元走弱對新興市場是個好消息，降低了以美元計價的債務的服務成本，從而緩解了金融條件。\n 其次，發展中國家的通貨膨脹上升速度低於發達經濟體。根據摩根大通的數據，9 月份新興市場的平均通貨膨脹率為 2.3%，而發達經濟體為 2.8%。\n 第三，關於關税的不確定性最糟糕的時期已經過去。雖然特朗普隨時可能重新發起貿易攻勢，但真相已經暴露。他的多次讓步削弱了他的信譽。此外，各國政府已經學會了如何應對特朗普，幫助緩解了貿易緊張局勢。\n\n\n 第四，亞洲的科技驅動經濟正在受益於生成性人工智能（AI）的崛起。由台灣和韓國股票推動的亞洲科技股主要指數在今年前 10 個月上漲了近 50%，是以科技為主的納斯達克綜合指數增幅的兩倍多。\n 第五，也是最重要的一點，新興市場股票在全球投資者中顯著被低配，經過多年的表現不佳。今年的資金流入明顯滯後於市場反彈。“即使是外資在美國股票中的小幅回撤，也可能釋放出數萬億的潛在資金流出。這些資金流出中即使有一小部分轉向新興市場，也可能產生重大影響，” Eastspring Investments 在一份報告中表示。\n 然而，新興市場資產的反彈仍處於早期階段。隨着對美元的做空押注逐漸消退，美元再次走強。自 9 月 16 日以來，美元指數上漲了 3%，主要是因為 “市場在説 ‘特朗普衝擊’ 已經結束。特朗普還有什麼可以震驚市場的舉動？我們自己也很難想出答案，” 德意志銀行的喬治·薩拉維洛斯表示。\n 儘管面臨政治、制度和財政問題，美國經濟的韌性超出了預期。這主要是因為更高的關税和對移民的打壓所帶來的影響被人工智能支出熱潮所抵消。\n\n\n 特朗普不僅僅是運氣好，美國仍然是 “最乾淨的髒襯衫”，受益於美元和美國國債市場的主導地位。只要對人工智能驅動的股票泡沫的擔憂沒有導致劇烈和持續的拋售，市場對美元的情緒應該會繼續改善，從而對新興市場施加更大壓力。\n 新興市場股票往往只有在發達市場股票上漲時才表現良好。這部分原因解釋了亞洲科技股的脆弱。這個月華爾街以科技為主的拋售將注意力集中在亞洲股市的集中風險上。\n 在美國股市中，前五大科技股佔據了超過 27% 的市值，而台灣半導體制造公司單獨佔據了台灣股市的 40%，三星電子和 SK 海力士共同佔據了韓國股市的 40%。\n 此外，新興市場的增長前景已不如往昔。這部分是由於中國的結構性下滑，但也因為發展中國家面臨的經濟和地緣政治挑戰十分嚴峻。\n15 年的表現不佳留下了傷痕。大多數全球投資者將今年發展中經濟體資產價格的反彈視為從美國多樣化投資的及時機會，而不是多年來表現優異的開始。關於新興市場復興的討論為時尚早。</p>
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新興市場的上漲不僅是因為投資者逃離美國市場，也是因為他們在尋找投資價值