<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Copper-1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Copper-1.png"/></p>
<p>銅價在短暫突破每噸 11,000 美元后迅速回落，因為來自中國的令人失望的經濟數據以及印度尼西亞關鍵的格拉斯伯格礦部分重啓冷卻了市場熱情，導致價格下跌。</p>
<p>最近關於中國工業產出的數據呈現出複雜的局面。</p>
<p>儘管整體工業生產同比增長，顯示出持續增長的信號，但與前幾個月觀察到的勢頭相比，這一擴張的速度明顯減緩。</p>
<h2>中國需求放緩阻礙銅價反彈</h2>
<p>這一放緩是全球商品市場分析的關鍵點。</p>
<p>這種放緩的趨勢特別體現在金屬生產領域。</p>
<p>通常，金屬生產增長率的降低會被解讀為供應端的約束，這通常是金屬價格（包括銅）上漲的積極因素。</p>
<p>然而，這一潛在的銅價積極催化劑正被需求端深層次的問題所掩蓋，特別是在中國。</p>
<p>核心問題在於國內需求的疲軟，目前不足以吸收可用的供應，德意志銀行表示。</p>
<h2>房地產問題削弱銅消費</h2>
<p>這種需求疲軟的主要來源是房地產市場，德國銀行表示。</p>
<p>中國的房地產行業再次經歷顯著下滑，銷售下降、新開工減少，以及主要開發商面臨高水平的財務困境。</p>
<p>房地產行業是銅的巨大消費市場，廣泛用於新住宅和商業建築的電線、管道和電器中。</p>
<p>這一關鍵終端市場的再次下滑嚴重影響了銅需求的前景，有效中和了金屬生產數據放緩可能對銅價產生的任何支持作用。</p>
<p>因此，市場面臨的情景是，結構性需求疲軟對價格施加的下行壓力大於任何輕微的供應端收緊。</p>
<p>“強勁的生產和疲軟的國內需求的結合表明，中國將出口更多金屬，” 外匯和商品研究負責人阮氏蘭在一份報告中表示。</p>
<p>預計十月份銅出口超過 100,000 噸，這將使今年的總出口創下新年度記錄。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>另一個原因是高位的倫敦金屬交易所銅價，鼓勵了出口的增加。</p>
<p>然而，庫存的發展僅顯示出來自中國的供應略有增加。</p>
</blockquote>
<p>自本月初以來，庫存僅略有增加。</p>
<p>“然而，如果這一趨勢持續下去，這可能會進一步導致銅價的下行修正，” 阮氏蘭表示。</p>
<h2>鐵礦石價格穩定</h2>
<p>上週新加坡交易所的鐵礦石價格相對穩定，在每噸 101 美元到 103 美元之間小幅波動。</p>
<p>儘管該商品面臨持續的負面新聞，這一情況依然存在。</p>
<p>此外，來自中國的鐵礦石需求數據不佳並未對週五的價格產生顯著影響。</p>
<p>中國十月份的鋼鐵生產降至 7200 萬噸，同比下降 12%，為 2023 年 12 月以來的最低水平。</p>
<p>這一早期低點歸因於為滿足年度目標而實施的減產。</p>
<p>“在今年前十個月達到 8.17 億噸的情況下，2025 年的年產量顯然可能首次低於 10 億噸，自 2019 年以來首次，” 德意志銀行外匯和商品分析師沃爾克馬爾·鮑爾在一份報告中表示。</p>
<p>中國房地產市場的持續疲軟也未能提振國內鋼鐵需求。</p>
<p>儘管中國房地產行業的危機已持續超過四年，但十月份的數據表明近期惡化。</p>
<p>具體而言，十月份的新房銷售下降近 20%，而新開工受到更顯著的影響，較去年同期下降 30%。</p>
<p>鮑爾表示：</p>
<blockquote>
<p>總的來説，這種情況繼續使我們預期鐵礦石價格將走低。</p>
</blockquote>
<p>銅價因中國房地產疲軟壓制生產放緩而下跌的文章首次出現在 Invezz 上。</p>

Avino金銀礦

<p>銅價下跌，因中國經濟數據疲軟以及印度尼西亞格拉斯伯格礦的部分重啓打擊了市場熱情。儘管銅價曾短暫突破每噸 11,000 美元，但中國工業產出的放緩以及其房地產市場的低迷（銅的主要消費領域）導致需求下降。德國商業銀行（Commerzbank AG）指出，強勁的生產和疲軟的國內需求可能導致中國出口增加，進一步施壓價格。儘管中國需求數據不佳，鐵礦石價格仍保持穩定</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Copper-1.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Copper-1.png"/></p>
<p>The copper rally fizzled out quickly after the metal briefly soared past $11,000 per ton, as disappointing economic figures from China and the partial reopening of Indonesia’s key Grasberg mine cooled market enthusiasm and drove prices lower.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>銅價在短暫突破每噸 11,000 美元后迅速回落，因為來自中國的令人失望的經濟數據以及印度尼西亞關鍵的格拉斯伯格礦部分重啓冷卻了市場熱情，導致價格下跌。</p>
</div><p>The recent data on industrial output from China presents a mixed picture.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近關於中國工業產出的數據呈現出複雜的局面。</p>
</div><p>While overall industrial production showed a year-on-year increase, signaling continued growth, the pace of this expansion has noticeably decelerated when compared to the momentum observed in earlier months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管整體工業生產同比增長，顯示出持續增長的信號，但與前幾個月觀察到的勢頭相比，這一擴張的速度明顯減緩。</p>
</div><h2>China demand slowdown halts copper rally</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>中國需求放緩阻礙銅價反彈</h2>
</div><p>This slowdown is a key point of analysis for global commodity markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一放緩是全球商品市場分析的關鍵點。</p>
</div><p>This trend of slowing momentum extends specifically to the metal production sector.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種放緩的趨勢特別體現在金屬生產領域。</p>
</div><p>Ordinarily, a reduction in the rate of growth for metal production would be interpreted as a supply-side constraint, which is typically a positive factor for metal prices, including copper.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通常，金屬生產增長率的降低會被解讀為供應端的約束，這通常是金屬價格（包括銅）上漲的積極因素。</p>
</div><p>However, this potential positive catalyst for the copper price is being overshadowed by deep-seated issues on the demand side, particularly within China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，這一潛在的銅價積極催化劑正被需求端深層次的問題所掩蓋，特別是在中國。</p>
</div><p>The core problem lies in the weakness of domestic demand, which is currently insufficient to absorb the available supply, according to Commerzbank AG.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>核心問題在於國內需求的疲軟，目前不足以吸收可用的供應，德意志銀行表示。</p>
</div><h2>Reals estate issue undercuts copper consumption</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>房地產問題削弱銅消費</h2>
</div><p>The primary source of this demand weakness stems from the real estate market, the German bank said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種需求疲軟的主要來源是房地產市場，德國銀行表示。</p>
</div><p>China’s property sector is once again experiencing a significant downturn, characterised by declining sales, reduced new construction starts, and a high level of financial distress among major developers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中國的房地產行業再次經歷顯著下滑，銷售下降、新開工減少，以及主要開發商面臨高水平的財務困境。</p>
</div><p>The real estate sector is a colossal consumer of copper, used extensively in wiring, plumbing, and appliances for new residential and commercial buildings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>房地產行業是銅的巨大消費市場，廣泛用於新住宅和商業建築的電線、管道和電器中。</p>
</div><p>The renewed downturn in this critical end-user market is severely clouding the outlook for copper demand, effectively neutralising any supportive effect that the slowing metal production figures might otherwise have had on the copper price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一關鍵終端市場的再次下滑嚴重影響了銅需求的前景，有效中和了金屬生產數據放緩可能對銅價產生的任何支持作用。</p>
</div><p>Consequently, the market faces a scenario where structural demand weaknesses are exerting greater downward pressure on the price than any mild supply-side tightening.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，市場面臨的情景是，結構性需求疲軟對價格施加的下行壓力大於任何輕微的供應端收緊。</p>
</div><p>“The combination of robust production and weak domestic demand suggests that China will export more metal,” Thu Lan Nguyen, head of FX and commodity research, said in a report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“強勁的生產和疲軟的國內需求的結合表明，中國將出口更多金屬，” 外匯和商品研究負責人阮氏蘭在一份報告中表示。</p>
</div><p>Copper exports in October are estimated to have surpassed 100,000 tons, which would result in a new annual record for total exports this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>預計十月份銅出口超過 100,000 噸，這將使今年的總出口創下新年度記錄。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>Another reason is the high LME copper price, which is encouraging increased exports.</p>
<p>The development of inventories shows only a slight increase in supply from China, however.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>另一個原因是高位的倫敦金屬交易所銅價，鼓勵了出口的增加。</p>
<p>然而，庫存的發展僅顯示出來自中國的供應略有增加。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>Since the start of this month, inventories have only seen a slight increase.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自本月初以來，庫存僅略有增加。</p>
</div><p>“However, if the trend continues, this is likely to favor a further downward correction in the copper price,” Nguyen said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“然而，如果這一趨勢持續下去，這可能會進一步導致銅價的下行修正，” 阮氏蘭表示。</p>
</div><h2>Iron ore prices stable</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>鐵礦石價格穩定</h2>
</div><p>The price of iron ore on the Singapore exchange showed relative stability last week, fluctuating narrowly between $101 and $103 per ton.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上週新加坡交易所的鐵礦石價格相對穩定，在每噸 101 美元到 103 美元之間小幅波動。</p>
</div><p>This occurred despite an ongoing stream of negative news for the commodity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管該商品面臨持續的負面新聞，這一情況依然存在。</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, poor iron ore demand data from China did not significantly impact the price on Friday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，來自中國的鐵礦石需求數據不佳並未對週五的價格產生顯著影響。</p>
</div><p>China’s steel production dropped to 72 million tons in October, marking a 12% year-on-year decrease and the lowest volume since December 2023.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中國十月份的鋼鐵生產降至 7200 萬噸，同比下降 12%，為 2023 年 12 月以來的最低水平。</p>
</div><p>This earlier low was attributed to production cuts implemented to meet annual targets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一早期低點歸因於為滿足年度目標而實施的減產。</p>
</div><p>“With 817 million tons in the first ten months of the year, it is also clear that annual production in 2025 is likely to fall below 1 billion tons for the first time since 2019,” Volkmar Baur, FX and commodity analyst at Commerzbank, said in a note.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“在今年前十個月達到 8.17 億噸的情況下，2025 年的年產量顯然可能首次低於 10 億噸，自 2019 年以來首次，” 德意志銀行外匯和商品分析師沃爾克馬爾·鮑爾在一份報告中表示。</p>
</div><p>The continued weakness in the Chinese property market also failed to bolster steel demand within the country.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中國房地產市場的持續疲軟也未能提振國內鋼鐵需求。</p>
</div><p>While the crisis in the Chinese property sector has persisted for over four years, October’s data indicates a recent deterioration.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管中國房地產行業的危機已持續超過四年，但十月份的數據表明近期惡化。</p>
</div><p>Specifically, new property sales dropped by nearly 20% in October, and construction starts were even more significantly affected, falling 30% below the level recorded in the previous year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>具體而言，十月份的新房銷售下降近 20%，而新開工受到更顯著的影響，較去年同期下降 30%。</p>
</div><p>Baur said:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鮑爾表示：</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>All in all, this continues to be a situation in which we would expect lower iron ore prices.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>總的來説，這種情況繼續使我們預期鐵礦石價格將走低。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>The post Copper falls as weak Chinese real estate overrides production slowdown appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>銅價因中國房地產疲軟壓制生產放緩而下跌的文章首次出現在 Invezz 上。</p>
</div>

由於疲軟的中國房地產市場影響超過了生產放緩的效應，銅價下跌