<p>作者：Frances Yue</p>
<p>但 Michael Saylor 表示，Strategy 仍在繼續買入，週五説道。</p>
<p>比特幣在週五下午仍然交易於$100,000 以下。</p>
<p>隨着比特幣本週交易低於其關鍵的$100,000 里程碑，近期&#34;鯨魚&#34;（即持有大量加密貨幣的投資者）以及其他長期持有者的拋售，已成為近期疲軟的顯著因素。</p>
<p>大多數區塊鏈分析公司將&#34;鯨魚&#34;定義為持有 1,000 個比特幣或更多的個人或機構。儘管大多數鯨魚的身份未知，但區塊鏈數據仍然可以通過追蹤他們的加密錢包提供有關他們活動的見解。</p>
<p>這些數據顯示，一些鯨魚最近加大了比特幣的銷售。這是顯著的，但一些分析師表示，這不一定是恐慌的跡象。他們表示，近期的拋售可能反映了穩定的獲利了結，而不是恐慌拋售，這種模式與之前牛市週期中的行為一致。</p>
<p>MarketVector Indexes 的數字資產研究與戰略總監 Martin Leinweber 表示，這種銷售可能反映了&#34;有計劃的資產分配&#34;。他説：“一些比特幣持有者在比特幣交易於個位數時買入，並等待了很久。最終你有了流動性，可以在不完全摧毀市場的情況下出售。”</p>
<p>儘管加密貨幣的多頭最近抱怨市場流動性減少，但與十年前相比，買入或賣出加密貨幣的能力大大增強。</p>
<p>不過，令人擔憂的是，鯨魚的近期拋售與情緒惡化和買入放緩相吻合，這可能會進一步給比特幣的價格施加壓力，區塊鏈分析公司 CryptoQuant 的分析師表示。根據道瓊斯市場數據，最大的加密貨幣週五跌至$94,519，為 5 月 6 日以來的最低水平。本週迄今下跌 9.14%，有望創下自 2 月 28 日以來的最差周表現，當時跌幅為 11.36%。</p>
<p>現在與那時的對比</p>
<p>長期和大型比特幣持有者的拋售並不是當前週期的獨特現象，區塊鏈數據平台 Glassnode 在最近的一份報告中寫道，近期的拋售跡象表明，這些拋售是由獲利了結驅動的，而非恐慌。</p>
<p>具體來看，持有比特幣超過七年的鯨魚錢包每小時出售超過 1,000 個比特幣，銷售似乎是定期且均勻地發生的，如下圖所示，該圖截至 11 月 13 日星期四。</p>
<p>根據區塊鏈數據平台 Glassnode 的説法，比特幣的&#34;支出&#34;或&#34;出售&#34;似乎是一種&#34;持續的、分階段的分配&#34;，而不是長期持有者的突然協調&#34;拋售&#34;。</p>
<p>$100,000 的里程碑</p>
<p>與此同時，過去幾個月鯨魚的拋售似乎與比特幣的$100,000 里程碑有關，這一水平長期以來被許多早期採用者視為獲利的心理閾值，長期比特幣投資者、專注於比特幣的金融服務公司 Swan Bitcoin 的首席執行官 Cory Klippsten 表示。</p>
<p>&#34;我認識的許多早期持有者自 2017 年我進入這個領域以來就一直在談論這個數字 [$100,000]，&#34;Klippsten 對 MarketWatch 説道。&#34;出於某種原因，那是人們總是説他們會出售一些的水平。&#34;</p>
<p>根據 Glassnode 的數據，自 2024 年 12 月比特幣首次突破$100,000 以來，長期持有者的拋售加劇。</p>
<p>可能令人擔憂的因素</p>
<p>不過，有一個變化的因素是市場對這種拋售的吸收方式。當長期持有者在去年年底和今年年初出售比特幣時，其他買家介入以支持價格，但這種動態似乎已經發生了變化，CryptoQuant 的分析師在最近的一份報告中寫道。</p>
<p>需求減弱的一個跡象可以在投資產品的流入中看到。截至週四，投資比特幣的交易所交易基金（ETF）本週流出$311.3 百萬，預計將連續第五週出現流出，這是自 3 月 14 日結束的五週以來最長的流出期，根據道瓊斯市場數據。</p>
<p>在過去五週中，共有$26 億流出比特幣 ETF，這是自 3 月 28 日結束的五週以來最大的流出，屆時流出達到$33 億。</p>
<p>近期的價格走勢也使$100,000 的門檻重新引起關注。上週，比特幣短暫跌破$100,000 後反彈，然後在週四再次跌破該水平。截至週五下午，它交易於該閾值以下，一些技術分析師表示，這可能促使更多的獲利了結，因為市場未能重新奪回這一關鍵水平。</p>
<p>此外，廣泛的宏觀經濟環境對風險資產並不支持。這導致一些長期頭寸的清算，LMAX 集團的市場策略師 Joel Kruger 指出，該集團運營着外匯和加密貨幣交易所。他對 MarketWatch 表示：“我們認為市場在進入第四季度時抱有過高的預期，這些預期是由季節性趨勢分析驅動的，歷史上在這一時期表現出色。”</p>
<p>然而，隨着投資者削減對美聯儲 12 月降息的預期，以及疲軟的勞動力市場數據引發對經濟的擔憂，風險資產普遍，包括比特幣，面臨新的壓力，Kruger 指出。</p>
<p>美國股市本週收盤漲跌互現，道瓊斯工業平均指數上漲 0.3%。標準普爾 500 指數本週上漲 0.1%，而納斯達克綜合指數在此期間下跌 0.5%，連續兩週錄得虧損。</p>
<p>Saylor 仍在買入</p>
<p>儘管如此，已知的最大比特幣鯨魚之一仍在繼續買入。</p>
<p>Strategy Inc.（MSTR）的董事長邁克爾·塞勒（Michael Saylor）在週五的 CNBC 上表示，該軟件公司現在被視為一個槓桿比特幣投資，正在 “加速” 其比特幣購買，並將在週一早上報告其購買情況。</p>
<p>截至週五，Strategy 持有超過 640,000 個比特幣，代表着當前比特幣供應量 1,990 萬的 3% 以上。Strategy 的代表沒有立即回覆尋求評論的電子郵件。</p>
<p>肯·希門尼斯（Ken Jimenez）和邁克爾·德斯特法諾（Michael DeStefano）做出了貢獻。</p>
<p>-弗朗西斯·嶽（Frances Yue）</p>
<p>此內容由 MarketWatch 創作，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 與道瓊斯新聞通訊社和《華爾街日報》獨立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道瓊斯新聞通訊社</p>
<p>11-14-25 1653ET</p>

GBTC

MSTR

<p>最近 “鯨魚”——持有大量比特幣的投資者——的拋售導致比特幣價格跌破 10 萬美元。分析師認為，這種拋售是獲利了結而非恐慌。市場吸收這些拋售的能力減弱，比特幣 ETF 也出現了顯著的資金流出。更廣泛的宏觀經濟環境和技術因素也對比特幣價格施加了壓力，導致其自 2 月份以來表現最差的一週</p>

<p>By Frances Yue</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Frances Yue</p>
</div><p>But Strategy is still buying, Michael Saylor said on Friday</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但 Michael Saylor 表示，Strategy 仍在繼續買入，週五説道。</p>
</div><p>Bitcoin was still trading below $100,000 Friday afternoon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特幣在週五下午仍然交易於$100,000 以下。</p>
</div><p>As bitcoin traded below its key $100,000 milestone this week, recent selling by &#34;whales&#34; - or holders of large amounts of the cryptocurrency - along with other long-term holders has emerged as a notable contributor to the recent weakness.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着比特幣本週交易低於其關鍵的$100,000 里程碑，近期&#34;鯨魚&#34;（即持有大量加密貨幣的投資者）以及其他長期持有者的拋售，已成為近期疲軟的顯著因素。</p>
</div><p>Most blockchain-analytics firms define &#34;whales&#34; as individuals or institutions holding 1,000 bitcoin or more. Although the identities of most whales are unknown, blockchain data can still offer insights into their activity by tracking their crypto wallets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大多數區塊鏈分析公司將&#34;鯨魚&#34;定義為持有 1,000 個比特幣或更多的個人或機構。儘管大多數鯨魚的身份未知，但區塊鏈數據仍然可以通過追蹤他們的加密錢包提供有關他們活動的見解。</p>
</div><p>Those data have shown that some whales recently stepped up their bitcoin sales. That's notable, but it's not necessarily a sign of panic, some analysts said. The recent selling could reflect steady profit-taking rather than panic dumping, they said, a pattern consistent with behavior seen in previous bull-market cycles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些數據顯示，一些鯨魚最近加大了比特幣的銷售。這是顯著的，但一些分析師表示，這不一定是恐慌的跡象。他們表示，近期的拋售可能反映了穩定的獲利了結，而不是恐慌拋售，這種模式與之前牛市週期中的行為一致。</p>
</div><p>Such sales could reflect a &#34;calculated distribution of assets,&#34; according to Martin Leinweber, director of digital-asset research and strategy at MarketVector Indexes. &#34;Some bitcoiners bought [the crypto when it was trading] at single digits and waited so long. Finally you have the liquidity to sell without destroying the market completely,&#34; he told MarketWatch.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MarketVector Indexes 的數字資產研究與戰略總監 Martin Leinweber 表示，這種銷售可能反映了&#34;有計劃的資產分配&#34;。他説：“一些比特幣持有者在比特幣交易於個位數時買入，並等待了很久。最終你有了流動性，可以在不完全摧毀市場的情況下出售。”</p>
</div><p>While crypto bulls have complained about a draining of liquidity in markets lately, the ability to buy or sell the crypto has greatly increased versus a decade ago.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管加密貨幣的多頭最近抱怨市場流動性減少，但與十年前相比，買入或賣出加密貨幣的能力大大增強。</p>
</div><p>Still, what could be concerning is that recent selling by whales has been coinciding with deteriorating sentiment and slower buying, which could add further pressure to bitcoin's price, according to analysts at blockchain-analytics firm CryptoQuant. The largest cryptocurrency fell on Friday to as low as $94,519, its lowest level since May 6, according to Dow Jones Market Data. It was down 9.14% so far this week, on track for its worst weekly performance since the week ending Feb. 28, when it fell 11.36%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不過，令人擔憂的是，鯨魚的近期拋售與情緒惡化和買入放緩相吻合，這可能會進一步給比特幣的價格施加壓力，區塊鏈分析公司 CryptoQuant 的分析師表示。根據道瓊斯市場數據，最大的加密貨幣週五跌至$94,519，為 5 月 6 日以來的最低水平。本週迄今下跌 9.14%，有望創下自 2 月 28 日以來的最差周表現，當時跌幅為 11.36%。</p>
</div><p>Now versus then</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在與那時的對比</p>
</div><p>Bitcoin selling by longer-term and larger holders of bitcoin isn't unique to the current cycle, and analysts at blockchain-data platform Glassnode wrote in a recent note that there have been signs that suggest recent selling has been driven by profit-taking rather than panic.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>長期和大型比特幣持有者的拋售並不是當前週期的獨特現象，區塊鏈數據平台 Glassnode 在最近的一份報告中寫道，近期的拋售跡象表明，這些拋售是由獲利了結驅動的，而非恐慌。</p>
</div><p>Looking specifically at whale wallets that held bitcoin for more than seven years and sold more than 1,000 bitcoin per hour, the sales appear to have occurred regularly and evenly over time, as shown in the chart below, which goes through Thursday, Nov. 13.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>具體來看，持有比特幣超過七年的鯨魚錢包每小時出售超過 1,000 個比特幣，銷售似乎是定期且均勻地發生的，如下圖所示，該圖截至 11 月 13 日星期四。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Spending&#34; or &#34;selling&#34; of bitcoin appears to be a &#34;persistent, staggered distribution,&#34; not a sudden coordinated &#34;dump&#34; by longstanding holders, according to blockchain-data platform Glassnode.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據區塊鏈數據平台 Glassnode 的説法，比特幣的&#34;支出&#34;或&#34;出售&#34;似乎是一種&#34;持續的、分階段的分配&#34;，而不是長期持有者的突然協調&#34;拋售&#34;。</p>
</div><p>The $100,000 milestone</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$100,000 的里程碑</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, much of the selling by whales in the past few months appears tied to bitcoin's $100,000 milestone, a level many early adopters have long viewed as a psychological threshold for taking profits, said Cory Klippsten, a longtime bitcoin investor and chief executive at bitcoin-focused financial-services firm Swan Bitcoin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，過去幾個月鯨魚的拋售似乎與比特幣的$100,000 里程碑有關，這一水平長期以來被許多早期採用者視為獲利的心理閾值，長期比特幣投資者、專注於比特幣的金融服務公司 Swan Bitcoin 的首席執行官 Cory Klippsten 表示。</p>
</div><p>&#34;There are so many early holders I know who have talked about that number [$100,000] ever since I got into the space in 2017,&#34; Klippsten told MarketWatch. &#34;For some reason, that was the level at which people always said they'd sell some.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;我認識的許多早期持有者自 2017 年我進入這個領域以來就一直在談論這個數字 [$100,000]，&#34;Klippsten 對 MarketWatch 説道。&#34;出於某種原因，那是人們總是説他們會出售一些的水平。&#34;</p>
</div><p>Selling by long-term holders has intensified since December 2024, when bitcoin rose above $100,000 for the first time in history, according to Glassnode data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 Glassnode 的數據，自 2024 年 12 月比特幣首次突破$100,000 以來，長期持有者的拋售加劇。</p>
</div><p>What could be alarming</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可能令人擔憂的因素</p>
</div><p>Still, one factor that has changed is how the market has been absorbing this selling. When long-term holders sold their bitcoin late last year and earlier this year, other buyers stepped in to support the price, but that dynamic appears to have shifted, analysts at CryptoQuant wrote in a recent note.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不過，有一個變化的因素是市場對這種拋售的吸收方式。當長期持有者在去年年底和今年年初出售比特幣時，其他買家介入以支持價格，但這種動態似乎已經發生了變化，CryptoQuant 的分析師在最近的一份報告中寫道。</p>
</div><p>One sign of softer demand can be seen in flows into investment products. Exchange-traded funds investing in bitcoin have seen an outflow of $311.3 million this week as of Thursday, putting them on pace for a fifth consecutive week of outflows, the longest stretch since the five weeks ending March 14, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>需求減弱的一個跡象可以在投資產品的流入中看到。截至週四，投資比特幣的交易所交易基金（ETF）本週流出$311.3 百萬，預計將連續第五週出現流出，這是自 3 月 14 日結束的五週以來最長的流出期，根據道瓊斯市場數據。</p>
</div><p>Over the past five weeks, a total of $2.6 billion has flowed out of bitcoin ETFs, the largest five-week outflow since the five weeks ending March 28, when outflows reached $3.3 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去五週中，共有$26 億流出比特幣 ETF，這是自 3 月 28 日結束的五週以來最大的流出，屆時流出達到$33 億。</p>
</div><p>Recent price action also has brought the $100,000 threshold back into focus. Bitcoin briefly fell below $100,000 last week before recovering, then dipped under that level again on Thursday. It traded below that threshold as of Friday afternoon, which some technical analysts said likely encouraged additional profit-taking as the market failed to reclaim that key level.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>近期的價格走勢也使$100,000 的門檻重新引起關注。上週，比特幣短暫跌破$100,000 後反彈，然後在週四再次跌破該水平。截至週五下午，它交易於該閾值以下，一些技術分析師表示，這可能促使更多的獲利了結，因為市場未能重新奪回這一關鍵水平。</p>
</div><p>Adding to the pressure, the broader macroeconomic environment has not been supportive of risk assets. This has contributed to the liquidation of some long positions, noted Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Group, which operates a forex and crypto exchange. &#34;We believe the market came into [the fourth quarter] with outsized expectations, driven by seasonal trend analysis that historically shows exceptional performance during this period,&#34; Kruger wrote to MarketWatch.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，廣泛的宏觀經濟環境對風險資產並不支持。這導致一些長期頭寸的清算，LMAX 集團的市場策略師 Joel Kruger 指出，該集團運營着外匯和加密貨幣交易所。他對 MarketWatch 表示：“我們認為市場在進入第四季度時抱有過高的預期，這些預期是由季節性趨勢分析驅動的，歷史上在這一時期表現出色。”</p>
</div><p>However, as investors trim their expectations for a December interest-rate cut from the Federal Reserve and as soft labor-market data raises concerns about the economy, risk assets broadly, including bitcoin, have come under renewed pressure, Kruger noted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，隨着投資者削減對美聯儲 12 月降息的預期，以及疲軟的勞動力市場數據引發對經濟的擔憂，風險資產普遍，包括比特幣，面臨新的壓力，Kruger 指出。</p>
</div><p>U.S. stocks ended the week mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA up 0.3%. The S&amp;P 500 SPX edged up 0.1% for the week, while the Nasdaq Composite COMP fell 0.5% during the stretch, logging back-to-back weekly losses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國股市本週收盤漲跌互現，道瓊斯工業平均指數上漲 0.3%。標準普爾 500 指數本週上漲 0.1%，而納斯達克綜合指數在此期間下跌 0.5%，連續兩週錄得虧損。</p>
</div><p>Saylor is still buying</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Saylor 仍在買入</p>
</div><p>Despite all this, one of the largest known bitcoin whales has continued to buy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，已知的最大比特幣鯨魚之一仍在繼續買入。</p>
</div><p>Michael Saylor, chair of Strategy Inc. (MSTR), a software company now viewed largely as a leveraged bitcoin play, said on CNBC on Friday that the company has been &#34;accelerating&#34; its bitcoin buying and will be reporting its purchases on Monday morning.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Strategy Inc.（MSTR）的董事長邁克爾·塞勒（Michael Saylor）在週五的 CNBC 上表示，該軟件公司現在被視為一個槓桿比特幣投資，正在 “加速” 其比特幣購買，並將在週一早上報告其購買情況。</p>
</div><p>Strategy held over 640,000 bitcoin as of Friday, representing more than 3% of the crypto's current supply of 19.9 million. Representatives at Strategy did not immediately respond to an email seeking comment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至週五，Strategy 持有超過 640,000 個比特幣，代表着當前比特幣供應量 1,990 萬的 3% 以上。Strategy 的代表沒有立即回覆尋求評論的電子郵件。</p>
</div><p>Ken Jimenez and Michael DeStefano contributed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>肯·希門尼斯（Ken Jimenez）和邁克爾·德斯特法諾（Michael DeStefano）做出了貢獻。</p>
</div><p>-Frances Yue</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-弗朗西斯·嶽（Frances Yue）</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此內容由 MarketWatch 創作，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 與道瓊斯新聞通訊社和《華爾街日報》獨立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道瓊斯新聞通訊社</p>
</div><p>11-14-25 1653ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>11-14-25 1653ET</p>
</div>

隨着比特幣價格進一步跌破 10 萬美元，加密貨幣 “鯨魚” 正在出售比特幣。投資者是否應該感到擔憂？