<h2><strong>關鍵要點</strong></h2>
<h3><em>什麼能打破比特幣週期？</em></h3>
<p>分析師認為，來自 ETF 和國債買家的新動態使比特幣市場成熟，脱離了其典型的週期結構。</p>
<h3><em>如果週期被打破，接下來會發生什麼？</em></h3>
<p>那麼，比特幣在 2026 年的動能可能取決於美國商業週期和流動性增長。</p>
<hr/>
<p>比特幣 [BTC] 是如何在沒有觸發歷史警告信號的情況下達到頂峯並進入熊市的？</p>
<p>這是大多數市場觀察者在加密推特（CT）上苦苦思索的問題，因為比特幣在經歷了一段時間的調整後跌破了關鍵的牛市支撐（365 天日均線）。</p>
<p>但設定的警告信號依賴於 4 年的比特幣週期。</p>
<p>如果週期被打破或從歷史模式中改變呢？實際上，Bitwise 首席執行官 Hunter Horsley 和 FundStrat 首席投資官 Tom Lee 現在確信，遵循過去趨勢的參與者將打破這個週期。</p>
<p>Horsley 指出，人們在 2025 年出售以避免預期中的 2026 年拋售，基於過去的模式。</p>
<p>不幸的是，這可能會使 2025 年變成虧損的一年，而這通常是一個歷史上表現良好的減半後年份，從而有效地打破週期，並可能使 2026 年 “開放” 給一個新的局面。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“二階效應：2025 年的賣家導致 2025 年成為下行年，從而打破 4 年週期。三階效應：2026 年是開放季節。4 年週期被打破。”</p>
</blockquote>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/itcoin-cycle-returns.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/itcoin-cycle-returns.jpg"/></p>
<p>來源：Bitwise</p>
<p>Lee 呼應了這一觀點，並補充道，</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“有力的觀點，我同意比特幣和以太坊的因素正在遠離 4 年週期。”</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>什麼真正驅動比特幣週期？</h2>
<p>對於不熟悉的人來説，整個週期理論圍繞比特幣的減半事件展開，該事件大約每四年發生一次。</p>
<p>從週期低點測量，2022 階段（黑線）帶來了 +600% 的收益，遠低於其他週期。但它與第二（藍色）和第三（綠色）週期的相關性相對較高。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/glassnode-studio_price-performance-since-cycle-low.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/glassnode-studio_price-performance-since-cycle-low.png"/></p>
<p>來源：Glassnode</p>
<p>隨着 ETF 和國債等新參與者進入市場，成熟的行業預計將經歷收益遞減法則。</p>
<p>隨着變化，一些人聲稱，像 MVRV Z-Score 這樣的典型週期指標將不再有效地識別頂部。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/glassnode-studio_btc-mvrv-z-score-1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/glassnode-studio_btc-mvrv-z-score-1.png"/></p>
<p>來源：Glassnode</p>
<p>在過去的週期中，MVRV Z-Score 的激增標誌着市場頂部。如果確實$126k 是市場峯值，這樣的走勢尚未被觸發，將使當前週期獨特。</p>
<p>另一位用户 Satoshi Flipper 呼應了 Lee 和 Horsley 的觀點，但補充説，這些變化是由於美國商業週期的延長。</p>
<p>換句話説，比特幣週期與流動性增長的關係比之前認為的減半季節更為緊密。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/BTC-liquidity-cycle.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/BTC-liquidity-cycle.jpg"/></p>
<p>來源：X</p>
<p>也許年末的結果和 2026 年的表現將證明關於比特幣的哪種理論是正確的，以及 4 年週期是否真的已經結束。</p>

BMNR

<p>Bitwise 首席執行官 Hunter Horsley 和 FundStrat 首席投資官 Tom Lee 表示，比特幣傳統的四年週期可能會因 ETF 和國債買家的新動態而被打破。他們預測 2025 年可能是一個下行年，從而打破週期，併為 2026 年的新趨勢留出空間。以比特幣減半事件為中心的週期理論可能會轉向流動性增長，這對過去的指標如 MVRV Z-Score 形成挑戰</p>

<h2><strong>Key Takeaways</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>關鍵要點</strong></h2>
</div><h3><em>What can break the BTC cycle?</em></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><em>什麼能打破比特幣週期？</em></h3>
</div><p>New dynamics from ETFs and treasury buyers that analysts believe have matured the BTC market away from its typical cycle structure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析師認為，來自 ETF 和國債買家的新動態使比特幣市場成熟，脱離了其典型的週期結構。</p>
</div><h3><em>What’s next if the cycle is broken?</em></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><em>如果週期被打破，接下來會發生什麼？</em></h3>
</div><p>Then, BTC’s momentum in 2026 could depend on the U.S. business cycle and liquidity growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那麼，比特幣在 2026 年的動能可能取決於美國商業週期和流動性增長。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p>How did Bitcoin [BTC] top out and enter a bear phase without triggering historical warning signals?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特幣 [BTC] 是如何在沒有觸發歷史警告信號的情況下達到頂峯並進入熊市的？</p>
</div><p>That’s the question most market watchers are struggling with across Crypto Twitter (CT) after BTC fell below key bull market support (the 365-day Daily Moving Average) amid an extended correction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這是大多數市場觀察者在加密推特（CT）上苦苦思索的問題，因為比特幣在經歷了一段時間的調整後跌破了關鍵的牛市支撐（365 天日均線）。</p>
</div><p>But the set warning signals relied on the 4-year BTC cycle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但設定的警告信號依賴於 4 年的比特幣週期。</p>
</div><p>What if the cycle is broken or changing from historical patterns? In fact, Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley and FundStrat CIO Tom Lee are now convinced that players following the past trends will break the cycle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果週期被打破或從歷史模式中改變呢？實際上，Bitwise 首席執行官 Hunter Horsley 和 FundStrat 首席投資官 Tom Lee 現在確信，遵循過去趨勢的參與者將打破這個週期。</p>
</div><p>Horsley noted that people sold in 2025 to avoid the expected 2026 dump, based on past patterns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Horsley 指出，人們在 2025 年出售以避免預期中的 2026 年拋售，基於過去的模式。</p>
</div><p>Unfortunately, this could drag 2025 into the red, a historically green post-halving year, effectively breaking the cycle and potentially leaving 2026 “open” for a new regime.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不幸的是，這可能會使 2025 年變成虧損的一年，而這通常是一個歷史上表現良好的減半後年份，從而有效地打破週期，並可能使 2026 年 “開放” 給一個新的局面。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“Second-order effect: the 2025 sellers cause 2025 to be a down year, thus breaking the 4-year cycles. Third-order effect: 2026 is open season. 4-year cycles broken.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“二階效應：2025 年的賣家導致 2025 年成為下行年，從而打破 4 年週期。三階效應：2026 年是開放季節。4 年週期被打破。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/itcoin-cycle-returns.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/itcoin-cycle-returns.jpg"/></p>
<p>Source: Bitwise</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：Bitwise</p>
</div><p>Lee echoed the outlook and added,</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Lee 呼應了這一觀點，並補充道，</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“Cogent points, I agree that factors shifting away from 4-year cycle for BTC, ETH.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“有力的觀點，我同意比特幣和以太坊的因素正在遠離 4 年週期。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><h2>What’s really driving BTC cycles?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>什麼真正驅動比特幣週期？</h2>
</div><p>For the unfamiliar, the entire cycle theory has been centered on BTC’s halving event, which occurs about every four years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於不熟悉的人來説，整個週期理論圍繞比特幣的減半事件展開，該事件大約每四年發生一次。</p>
</div><p>Measured from the cycle low, the 2022 phase (black line) has yielded a +600% gain, way less than other cycles.But it had a relatively close correlation, especially to the second (blue) and third (green) cycles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從週期低點測量，2022 階段（黑線）帶來了 +600% 的收益，遠低於其他週期。但它與第二（藍色）和第三（綠色）週期的相關性相對較高。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/glassnode-studio_price-performance-since-cycle-low.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/glassnode-studio_price-performance-since-cycle-low.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Glassnode</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：Glassnode</p>
</div><p>With new players, such as ETFs and treasuries, entering the market, the maturing sector was expected to experience the law of diminishing returns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着 ETF 和國債等新參與者進入市場，成熟的行業預計將經歷收益遞減法則。</p>
</div><p>And with the changes, some have claimed that typical cycle indicators like MVRV Z-Score wouldn’t effectively pick out tops anymore.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着變化，一些人聲稱，像 MVRV Z-Score 這樣的典型週期指標將不再有效地識別頂部。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/glassnode-studio_btc-mvrv-z-score-1.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/glassnode-studio_btc-mvrv-z-score-1.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Glassnode</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：Glassnode</p>
</div><p>In the past cycles, MVRV Z-Score spikes marked market tops. Such a move hasn’t been triggered and would make the current cycle unique if indeed $126k was the market peak.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去的週期中，MVRV Z-Score 的激增標誌着市場頂部。如果確實$126k 是市場峯值，這樣的走勢尚未被觸發，將使當前週期獨特。</p>
</div><p>Another user, Satoshi Flipper, echoed Lee and Horsley’s outlook, but added that the changes are due to extended U.S. business cycles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一位用户 Satoshi Flipper 呼應了 Lee 和 Horsley 的觀點，但補充説，這些變化是由於美國商業週期的延長。</p>
</div><p>Put differently, the BTC cycle is tied closely to liquidity growth than halving seasons, as previously believed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>換句話説，比特幣週期與流動性增長的關係比之前認為的減半季節更為緊密。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/BTC-liquidity-cycle.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/BTC-liquidity-cycle.jpg"/></p>
<p>Source: X</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：X</p>
</div><p>Perhaps the end-of-year results and the 2026 performance will prove which theory is correct about BTC and whether the 4-year cycle is indeed dead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也許年末的結果和 2026 年的表現將證明關於比特幣的哪種理論是正確的，以及 4 年週期是否真的已經結束。</p>
</div>

Bitwise 首席執行官稱，比特幣的四周期將被打破——‘2026 年將是開放季’