<p><strong>文章介紹</strong></p>
<p>數字黃金的光輝已然暗淡，比特幣首次跌破 90,000 美元，經歷了宏觀經濟利率政策和內部市場結構的雙重考驗。</p>
<p>11 月 18 日，比特幣價格跌破關鍵心理關口 90,000 美元，最低觸及 89,288.7 美元，標誌着自今年 4 月以來首次突破該水平。</p>
<p>這一下跌意味着比特幣自 10 月初創下的 126,199 美元歷史高點以來，已下跌近 30%，抹去了今年所有的漲幅。這一下降不僅僅是簡單的價格修正；它動搖了整個加密貨幣市場的根基。根據市場數據，全球加密貨幣市場市值從 10 月初的 4.379 萬億美元峯值縮水了 25%，降至約 3.282 萬億美元，損失超過 1 萬億美元。伴隨價格下跌的是大規模的清算。Coinglass 數據顯示，在過去 24 小時內，加密貨幣市場上超過 175,000 名投資者經歷了清算，總清算金額達到 9.35 億美元。其中，多頭頭寸清算金額為 6.5 億美元，遠超 2.8 億美元的空頭頭寸，表明市場的看漲動能接近崩潰。這輪比特幣的下跌是宏觀經濟壓力、政策不確定性和內部市場結構問題共同作用的結果。在宏觀層面，美聯儲貨幣政策前景的急劇轉變是主要驅動力。隨着市場對美聯儲 12 月降息的預期降至 50% 以下，投資者開始系統性地撤出高風險資產頭寸。降息預期的減弱直接改變了資金成本的預期。在跌破 100,000 美元后，加密市場的持續下滑本質上是流動性溢價減少的必然結果。市場的內部結構也存在問題。在達到新高後，比特幣缺乏持續的新資本流入，而高度槓桿的多頭頭寸在整合期間集中清算，加劇了短期賣壓。同時，機構資金近期淨流入出現下降，一些中小型礦工提前套現以維持現金流。地緣政治因素也發揮了作用；自 10 月 11 日起，由於美國總統特朗普關於關税的言論，全球風險資產普遍承壓。隨後，創紀錄的美國政府停擺，加上財政和貨幣政策前景的不確定性加劇，進一步加重了市場對流動性環境的擔憂。市場對比特幣四年週期的關注顯著增加。目前的時間窗口大約是上次減半後 400 到 600 天，這一時期歷史上與比特幣的週期性價格峯值相吻合。這種週期性行為源於比特幣的固有特性：減半事件減少了新區塊鏈數據的供應，而需求隨着時間的推移逐漸增加，傳統上導致減半後約 12-18 個月的價格峯值。從市場心理學的角度來看，在比特幣達到新的歷史高點後，長期持有者往往傾向於獲利了結，向市場釋放大量供應。價格下跌可能是獲利了結、流動性收縮和宏觀經濟壓力共同作用的結果。值得注意的是，這輪拋售恰逢全球風險資產的修正。美國科技行業的近期修正和謹慎的市場情緒進一步放大了比特幣的短期波動。這表明，加密貨幣已更深地融入傳統金融體系，也更容易受到其波動的影響。市場對比特幣未來走勢的看法明顯分歧。BitMEX 聯合創始人 Arthur Hayes 警告稱，比特幣從 125,000 美元跌至 90,000 美元區間，而美國股市仍處於歷史高位，表明信用事件正在醖釀。Hayes 進一步指出，自 7 月以來，美元流動性指數顯著減弱，如果市場進一步惡化，美聯儲、財政部或其他機構可能被迫加速印鈔以穩定市場。在這種情況下，比特幣可能會回落至 80,000 至 85,000 美元區間。悲觀觀點認為，持續跌破 100,000 美元可能會引發更劇烈的拋售。市場分析師 Damian Chmiel 表示，下一個目標將是 4 月接近 74,000 美元的低點，暗示從當前水平可能有約 30% 的下行空間。儘管近期市場波動，一些華爾街機構仍然看漲。Fundstrat 的 Tom Lee 預測，比特幣到 2025 年底可能飆升至 150,000 至 200,000 美元。他指出，就在幾周前，市場經歷了一次歷史性的清算，規模超過 FTX 交易所崩潰，但這並沒有動搖他對長期的信心。11 月 19 日上午，比特幣價格已反彈至 92,000 美元區間。</p>

GBTC

<p>比特幣價格跌破 90,000 美元，較 10 月份的高點下跌了 30%，導致加密貨幣市場市值損失 1 萬億美元。此次下跌受到宏觀經濟壓力、政策不確定性和內部市場問題的驅動。大規模的清算發生，做多頭寸受到嚴重影響。市場觀點分歧，一些人預測進一步下跌，而另一些人對未來增長持樂觀態度</p>

<p><strong>Article Introduction</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>文章介紹</strong></p>
</div><p>The luster of digital gold has dimmed, with Bitcoin falling below $90,000 for the first time in seven months, undergoing a dual test of macroeconomic interest rate policies and internal market structure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數字黃金的光輝已然暗淡，比特幣首次跌破 90,000 美元，經歷了宏觀經濟利率政策和內部市場結構的雙重考驗。</p>
</div><p>On November 18, the price of Bitcoin fell below the key psychological level of $90,000, hitting a low of $89,288.7, marking the first time this level has been breached since April of this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>11 月 18 日，比特幣價格跌破關鍵心理關口 90,000 美元，最低觸及 89,288.7 美元，標誌着自今年 4 月以來首次突破該水平。</p>
</div><p>This drop means Bitcoin has fallen nearly 30% from its all-time high of $126,199 in early October, wiping out all of its gains this year. This decline is not merely a simple price correction; it has shaken the very foundations of the entire cryptocurrency market. According to market data, the global cryptocurrency market capitalization has shrunk by 25% from its peak of $4.379 trillion in early October to approximately $3.282 trillion, a loss of over $1 trillion in value. Accompanying the price decline has been massive liquidations. Coinglass data shows that in the past 24 hours, over 175,000 investors in the cryptocurrency market have experienced liquidations, with a total liquidation amount of $935 million. Of these, long positions were liquidated for $650 million, far exceeding the $280 million in short positions, indicating that the market's bullish momentum is nearing collapse. This round of Bitcoin decline is the result of a combination of macroeconomic pressures, policy uncertainty, and internal market structural problems. At the macro level, the sharp shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook is the main driving force. As the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in December fell below 50%, investors began systematically withdrawing from high-risk asset positions. The weakening expectation of interest rate cuts directly altered expectations of funding costs. The continued decline in the crypto market after falling below $100,000 is essentially an inevitable result of the diminishing liquidity premium. The market's internal structure also presents problems. After reaching new highs, Bitcoin lacked sustained new capital inflows, and highly leveraged long positions were concentratedly liquidated during the consolidation, exacerbating short-term selling pressure. Simultaneously, institutional funds have seen a recent decline in net inflows, with some small and medium-sized miners cashing out early to maintain cash flow. Geopolitical factors also played a role; starting October 11th, global risk assets generally came under pressure due to US President Trump's statements on tariffs. Subsequently, the record-breaking US government shutdown, coupled with escalating uncertainty surrounding fiscal and monetary policy prospects, further exacerbated market concerns about the liquidity environment. Market attention to Bitcoin's four-year cycle is significantly increasing. The current time window is approximately 400 to 600 days after the last halving, a period historically coinciding with Bitcoin's cyclical price peaks. This cyclical behavior stems from Bitcoin's inherent characteristics: halving events reduce the supply of new blockchain data, while demand gradually increases over time, traditionally leading to a price peak approximately 12-18 months after the halving. From a market psychology perspective, after Bitcoin reached a new all-time high, long-term holders tended to take profits, releasing a large supply into the market. The price decline is likely the result of a combination of profit-taking, shrinking liquidity, and macroeconomic pressures. It's worth noting that this round of selling coincided with a global correction in risk assets. The recent correction in the US technology sector and cautious market sentiment further amplified Bitcoin's short-term volatility. This indicates that cryptocurrencies have become more deeply integrated into the traditional financial system, and are also more susceptible to its volatility. Market opinions on Bitcoin's future trajectory are clearly divided. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes warned that Bitcoin's drop from $125,000 to the $90,000 range while US stocks remain at historical highs indicates a credit event is brewing. Hayes further pointed out that the dollar liquidity index has weakened significantly since July, and if the market deteriorates further, the Federal Reserve, the Treasury, or other institutions may be forced to accelerate money printing to stabilize the market. In this scenario, Bitcoin could potentially fall back to the $80,000 to $85,000 range. Pessimistic views suggest that a sustained drop below $100,000 could trigger a more dramatic sell-off. Market analyst Damian Chmiel stated that the next target would be the low of nearly $74,000 in April, implying a potential downside of approximately 30% from current levels. Despite recent market volatility, some Wall Street institutions remain bullish. Fundstrat's Tom Lee predicts that Bitcoin could surge to $150,000 to $200,000 by the end of 2025. He points out that just weeks ago, the market experienced a historic liquidation larger than the FTX exchange crash, but this has not shaken his long-term confidence. On the morning of November 19th, the price of Bitcoin had rebounded to the $92,000 range.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一下跌意味着比特幣自 10 月初創下的 126,199 美元歷史高點以來，已下跌近 30%，抹去了今年所有的漲幅。這一下降不僅僅是簡單的價格修正；它動搖了整個加密貨幣市場的根基。根據市場數據，全球加密貨幣市場市值從 10 月初的 4.379 萬億美元峯值縮水了 25%，降至約 3.282 萬億美元，損失超過 1 萬億美元。伴隨價格下跌的是大規模的清算。Coinglass 數據顯示，在過去 24 小時內，加密貨幣市場上超過 175,000 名投資者經歷了清算，總清算金額達到 9.35 億美元。其中，多頭頭寸清算金額為 6.5 億美元，遠超 2.8 億美元的空頭頭寸，表明市場的看漲動能接近崩潰。這輪比特幣的下跌是宏觀經濟壓力、政策不確定性和內部市場結構問題共同作用的結果。在宏觀層面，美聯儲貨幣政策前景的急劇轉變是主要驅動力。隨着市場對美聯儲 12 月降息的預期降至 50% 以下，投資者開始系統性地撤出高風險資產頭寸。降息預期的減弱直接改變了資金成本的預期。在跌破 100,000 美元后，加密市場的持續下滑本質上是流動性溢價減少的必然結果。市場的內部結構也存在問題。在達到新高後，比特幣缺乏持續的新資本流入，而高度槓桿的多頭頭寸在整合期間集中清算，加劇了短期賣壓。同時，機構資金近期淨流入出現下降，一些中小型礦工提前套現以維持現金流。地緣政治因素也發揮了作用；自 10 月 11 日起，由於美國總統特朗普關於關税的言論，全球風險資產普遍承壓。隨後，創紀錄的美國政府停擺，加上財政和貨幣政策前景的不確定性加劇，進一步加重了市場對流動性環境的擔憂。市場對比特幣四年週期的關注顯著增加。目前的時間窗口大約是上次減半後 400 到 600 天，這一時期歷史上與比特幣的週期性價格峯值相吻合。這種週期性行為源於比特幣的固有特性：減半事件減少了新區塊鏈數據的供應，而需求隨着時間的推移逐漸增加，傳統上導致減半後約 12-18 個月的價格峯值。從市場心理學的角度來看，在比特幣達到新的歷史高點後，長期持有者往往傾向於獲利了結，向市場釋放大量供應。價格下跌可能是獲利了結、流動性收縮和宏觀經濟壓力共同作用的結果。值得注意的是，這輪拋售恰逢全球風險資產的修正。美國科技行業的近期修正和謹慎的市場情緒進一步放大了比特幣的短期波動。這表明，加密貨幣已更深地融入傳統金融體系，也更容易受到其波動的影響。市場對比特幣未來走勢的看法明顯分歧。BitMEX 聯合創始人 Arthur Hayes 警告稱，比特幣從 125,000 美元跌至 90,000 美元區間，而美國股市仍處於歷史高位，表明信用事件正在醖釀。Hayes 進一步指出，自 7 月以來，美元流動性指數顯著減弱，如果市場進一步惡化，美聯儲、財政部或其他機構可能被迫加速印鈔以穩定市場。在這種情況下，比特幣可能會回落至 80,000 至 85,000 美元區間。悲觀觀點認為，持續跌破 100,000 美元可能會引發更劇烈的拋售。市場分析師 Damian Chmiel 表示，下一個目標將是 4 月接近 74,000 美元的低點，暗示從當前水平可能有約 30% 的下行空間。儘管近期市場波動，一些華爾街機構仍然看漲。Fundstrat 的 Tom Lee 預測，比特幣到 2025 年底可能飆升至 150,000 至 200,000 美元。他指出，就在幾周前，市場經歷了一次歷史性的清算，規模超過 FTX 交易所崩潰，但這並沒有動搖他對長期的信心。11 月 19 日上午，比特幣價格已反彈至 92,000 美元區間。</p>
</div>

比特幣價格跌破 90,000 美元，加密貨幣市場市值蒸發超過一萬億美元