<p>作者：Isabel Wang</p>
<p>策略師表示，週五的市場反彈 “並不是建立在任何堅實基礎上，而是非常短暫的東西”。</p>
<p>Interactive Brokers 的首席策略師 Steve Sosnick 表示，近期股票的反彈並沒有建立在任何堅實的基礎上。</p>
<p>本週華爾街的波動提醒人們，股市的信心是多麼脆弱：每次反彈都被拋售，每次下跌都加劇，投資者仍然對市場是否已經觸底持懷疑態度。</p>
<p>然後週五來了——幾乎是應聲而至，買家終於入場，這引發了一個問題：股票的突然反彈是否意味着真正的抄底潮開始，還是僅僅是脆弱股市中的又一次週末買入狂潮。</p>
<p>“每次下跌都可能是買入機會，但我看到的情況已經從抄底轉變為追漲，” Interactive Brokers 的首席策略師 Steve Sosnick 表示。“我們對追逐動能的迷戀使得市場出現了 ‘空氣口袋’ 的機會，因為這些反彈並不是建立在任何堅實基礎上，而是非常短暫的東西，這也意味着它們可能會迅速反轉。”</p>
<p>週五，美國股市經歷了一次極其動盪的旅程。道瓊斯工業平均指數（DJIA）和標準普爾 500 指數（SPX）在本週早些時候經歷了四天的下跌，隨後英偉達公司（NVDA）強勁的財報在週四早晨引發了股市的強勁反彈。但這種激增很快轉變為自四月以來標準普爾 500 指數最大的盤中拋售，因為人們擔心美聯儲在十二月將維持利率不變，隨後股票在週五再次反彈。</p>
<p>即使在週五的波動中，道瓊斯和標準普爾 500 指數仍然創下自 10 月 10 日以來的最差周表現，各自下跌近 2%。根據道瓊斯市場數據，納斯達克綜合指數（COMP）本週下跌超過 2.7%。</p>
<p>Sosnick 告訴 MarketWatch，本週股市的劇烈波動凸顯了投資者信心的脆弱，週五的反彈似乎也很短暫，因為市場的基本面幾乎沒有變化。這可能預示着未來幾天的麻煩。</p>
<p>“當你開始追漲時，這可能會讓你在市場上處於非常危險的境地，” 他説。“人們只有在真正認為股票因基本面或技術原因 ‘打折’ 時才會買入下跌，但現在他們只是因為股票變得更貴而買入，他們認為可以將其轉手給願意支付更高價格的人。”</p>
<p>WEBs Investments 的首席執行官 Ben Fulton 表示，週五的股票反彈表明交易者 “仍然像初升的太陽一樣充滿韌性”，因為他們出現在 “股市的早期黑色星期五促銷” 中。然而，他告訴 MarketWatch，問題在於，如果市場反彈快於預期，早期獲利了結可能會使市場復甦短暫。</p>
<p>見：加密貨幣、美元、股票和信貸正在告訴美聯儲需要降息，流行策略師表示。</p>
<p>本週的市場行動還看到投資者轉向股市的一些傳統防禦性領域，因為風險資產如大型科技股和比特幣（BTCUSD）受到壓力。</p>
<p>標準普爾 500 指數的消費品（XX:SP500.30）和醫療保健（XX:SP500.35）板塊是大型基準指數中為數不多的收盤上漲的領域之一。在這個月，這兩個板塊分別上漲了 2.2% 和 7.1%，而同期標準普爾 500 指數下跌了 3.5%，根據 FactSet 數據。</p>
<p>消費品和醫療保健在市場波動加劇期間通常被視為防禦性投資。根據 FactSet 的數據，黃金價格（GC00）雖然從高峰回落，但在 11 月迄今仍上漲了 2.4%。</p>
<p>Plante Moran Financial Advisors 的首席投資官 Jim Baird 表示，行業輪動更多是由估值驅動，而不是經典的 “避險交易”——資金從被高估的大型科技股流出，流入市場中更便宜的部分，而不是對美國經濟壓力的反應。</p>
<p>“由於這些大型科技股的估值看起來相當高，投資者開始尋找其他方式來改善他們的投資組合多樣化，並在一定程度上減少與人工智能故事的關聯，以更具多樣化的方式進行佈局，” 他説。</p>
<p>“在不確定性時期，適當減持一些盈利，特別是可以幫助你晚上睡得更好，” Baird 補充道。</p>
<p>-Isabel Wang</p>
<p>此內容由 MarketWatch 創建，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 與道瓊斯新聞通訊和《華爾街日報》獨立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道瓊斯新聞通訊</p>
<p>11-22-25 1202ET</p>

塔吉特

開市客

克羅格

<p>華爾街經歷了一個波動的星期，突顯出投資者信心的脆弱。儘管週五有所反彈，但像 Steve Sosnick 這樣的策略師警告稱，這種反彈並不基於堅實的基本面，可能是短暫的。道瓊斯指數和標準普爾 500 指數創下自 10 月 10 日以來的最差周表現，損失顯著。向消費品和醫療保健行業的板塊輪動表明，市場正在從被高估的科技股轉移。分析師警告稱，當前市場動態可能導致短暫的復甦，這種復甦是由動量驅動而非基本面</p>

<p>By Isabel Wang</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Isabel Wang</p>
</div><p>Friday's market rebound was 'not built on anything solid but something very ephemeral,' says strategist</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>策略師表示，週五的市場反彈 “並不是建立在任何堅實基礎上，而是非常短暫的東西”。</p>
</div><p>Recent rallies in stocks haven't been built on anything solid, says Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Interactive Brokers 的首席策略師 Steve Sosnick 表示，近期股票的反彈並沒有建立在任何堅實的基礎上。</p>
</div><p>Volatility on Wall Street this week was a reminder of just how frail conviction around the stock market has been: Every bounce was sold, every selloff spiraled and investors still were skeptical if it had bottomed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本週華爾街的波動提醒人們，股市的信心是多麼脆弱：每次反彈都被拋售，每次下跌都加劇，投資者仍然對市場是否已經觸底持懷疑態度。</p>
</div><p>Then came Friday - almost on cue, buyers finally stepped in, raising the question of whether the sudden rebound in stocks was the start of an actual bargain-hunting spree or just another end-of-week buying blitz in an otherwise fragile stock market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然後週五來了——幾乎是應聲而至，買家終於入場，這引發了一個問題：股票的突然反彈是否意味着真正的抄底潮開始，還是僅僅是脆弱股市中的又一次週末買入狂潮。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Every dip could be a buying opportunity, but what I'm seeing this week has morphed from dip buying to rally chasing,&#34; said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. &#34;We've become so enamored with chasing the momentum that I think it creates the opportunity for 'air pockets,' because those rallies are not built on anything solid but something very ephemeral, and that also means that they can reverse themselves very quickly.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“每次下跌都可能是買入機會，但我看到的情況已經從抄底轉變為追漲，” Interactive Brokers 的首席策略師 Steve Sosnick 表示。“我們對追逐動能的迷戀使得市場出現了 ‘空氣口袋’ 的機會，因為這些反彈並不是建立在任何堅實基礎上，而是非常短暫的東西，這也意味着它們可能會迅速反轉。”</p>
</div><p>U.S. stocks on Friday came off an extremely turbulent ride on Wall Street. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA and the S&amp;P 500 SPX logged a four-day losing streak earlier this week before Nvidia Corp.'s (NVDA) robust earnings report sparked a strong rally in the stock market on Thursday morning. But that surge quickly flipped into the biggest intraday selloff for the S&amp;P 500 since April as worries grew that the Federal reserve would stand pat in December on interest rates, before stocks reversed again on Friday with a sharp rebound.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週五，美國股市經歷了一次極其動盪的旅程。道瓊斯工業平均指數（DJIA）和標準普爾 500 指數（SPX）在本週早些時候經歷了四天的下跌，隨後英偉達公司（NVDA）強勁的財報在週四早晨引發了股市的強勁反彈。但這種激增很快轉變為自四月以來標準普爾 500 指數最大的盤中拋售，因為人們擔心美聯儲在十二月將維持利率不變，隨後股票在週五再次反彈。</p>
</div><p>Even with Friday's moves, the Dow and the S&amp;P 500 still logged their worst week since Oct. 10, with each losing nearly 2%. The Nasdaq Composite COMP tumbled over 2.7% this week, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使在週五的波動中，道瓊斯和標準普爾 500 指數仍然創下自 10 月 10 日以來的最差周表現，各自下跌近 2%。根據道瓊斯市場數據，納斯達克綜合指數（COMP）本週下跌超過 2.7%。</p>
</div><p>Sosnick told MarketWatch that the wild swings in the stock market this week underscore how fragile investor confidence has become, with Friday's rally also appearing fleeting as the market's underlying fundamentals have barely changed. That could spell trouble for the days ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Sosnick 告訴 MarketWatch，本週股市的劇烈波動凸顯了投資者信心的脆弱，週五的反彈似乎也很短暫，因為市場的基本面幾乎沒有變化。這可能預示着未來幾天的麻煩。</p>
</div><p>&#34;When you get this rally chasing, it could really put you on a very precarious footing in the market,&#34; he said. &#34;People buy dips only when they legitimately think stocks are 'on sale' for fundamental or technical reasons, but now they are doing it simply because stocks are getting more expensive, and they think they will be able to flip it to someone else who will pay more for that.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“當你開始追漲時，這可能會讓你在市場上處於非常危險的境地，” 他説。“人們只有在真正認為股票因基本面或技術原因 ‘打折’ 時才會買入下跌，但現在他們只是因為股票變得更貴而買入，他們認為可以將其轉手給願意支付更高價格的人。”</p>
</div><p>Ben Fulton, chief executive officer at WEBs Investments, said the stock rebound on Friday suggests traders are &#34;still resilient as the rising sun&#34; as they show up for &#34;the early Black Friday sales in the stock market.&#34; However, the problem is that the market recovery can be short-lived if early profit-taking is experienced when the markets rebound quicker than expected, he told MarketWatch on Friday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>WEBs Investments 的首席執行官 Ben Fulton 表示，週五的股票反彈表明交易者 “仍然像初升的太陽一樣充滿韌性”，因為他們出現在 “股市的早期黑色星期五促銷” 中。然而，他告訴 MarketWatch，問題在於，如果市場反彈快於預期，早期獲利了結可能會使市場復甦短暫。</p>
</div><p>See: Crypto, the dollar, stocks and credit are telling the Fed it needs to cut, popular strategist says</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>見：加密貨幣、美元、股票和信貸正在告訴美聯儲需要降息，流行策略師表示。</p>
</div><p>This week's market action also saw investors rotate into some of the traditional defensive corners on the stock market, as riskier assets such as megacap tech stocks and bitcoin (BTCUSD) came under pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本週的市場行動還看到投資者轉向股市的一些傳統防禦性領域，因為風險資產如大型科技股和比特幣（BTCUSD）受到壓力。</p>
</div><p>The S&amp;P 500's consumer-staples XX:SP500.30 and healthcare XX:SP500.35 sectors were among the few areas on the large-cap benchmark index to close the week higher. For the month, these two sectors have surged 2.2% and 7.1%, respectively, compared with the 3.5% decline in the S&amp;P 500 in the same period, according to FactSet data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>標準普爾 500 指數的消費品（XX:SP500.30）和醫療保健（XX:SP500.35）板塊是大型基準指數中為數不多的收盤上漲的領域之一。在這個月，這兩個板塊分別上漲了 2.2% 和 7.1%，而同期標準普爾 500 指數下跌了 3.5%，根據 FactSet 數據。</p>
</div><p>Consumer staples and healthcare are traditionally viewed as defensive plays during periods of elevated market volatility. Gold prices (GC00) fell off their peak but have still risen 2.4% so far in November, according to FactSet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>消費品和醫療保健在市場波動加劇期間通常被視為防禦性投資。根據 FactSet 的數據，黃金價格（GC00）雖然從高峰回落，但在 11 月迄今仍上漲了 2.4%。</p>
</div><p>Jim Baird, chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors, said the sector rotation is driven more by valuations and less about a classic &#34;flight to safety&#34; trade - with money moving out of stretched megacap technology names and into cheaper parts of the market - rather than a response to stress in the U.S. economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Plante Moran Financial Advisors 的首席投資官 Jim Baird 表示，行業輪動更多是由估值驅動，而不是經典的 “避險交易”——資金從被高估的大型科技股流出，流入市場中更便宜的部分，而不是對美國經濟壓力的反應。</p>
</div><p>&#34;As valuations look pretty stretched in those big-cap tech names, investors are starting to look for other ways to improve their portfolio diversification and be a little less tied to the AI story and position themselves in a more diversified manner,&#34; he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“由於這些大型科技股的估值看起來相當高，投資者開始尋找其他方式來改善他們的投資組合多樣化，並在一定程度上減少與人工智能故事的關聯，以更具多樣化的方式進行佈局，” 他説。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Taking a little bit of those winnings off the table, particularly during periods of uncertainty, can help you sleep at night,&#34; Baird added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“在不確定性時期，適當減持一些盈利，特別是可以幫助你晚上睡得更好，” Baird 補充道。</p>
</div><p>-Isabel Wang</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-Isabel Wang</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此內容由 MarketWatch 創建，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 與道瓊斯新聞通訊和《華爾街日報》獨立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道瓊斯新聞通訊</p>
</div><p>11-22-25 1202ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>11-22-25 1202ET</p>
</div>

華爾街動盪的一週顯示出股市信心已經變得多麼脆弱