<p>從表面上看，數字資產代表了 “去中心化” 的巔峯。</p>
<p>但這在實踐中真的如此嗎？十月的崩盤對加密投資者來説是一次嚴峻的重置——數十億資金在清算中被抹去，留下了深陷困境的持有者。觸發因素？一次 “協調” 的鯨魚撤退。</p>
<p>從這個角度來看，崩盤暴露了市場仍然高度集中。儘管如此，“在恐懼中買入” 仍然作為底部信號有效。隨着十一月的結束，比特幣鯨魚似乎又開始迴歸這一策略。</p>
<h2><strong>第四季度動盪：當宏觀經濟遇上比特幣鯨魚壓力</strong></h2>
<p>要理解當前市場，退一步看會有所幫助。</p>
<p>我們已經過了第四季度的一半，十月和十一月的崩盤仍在留下痕跡。總加密市場市值已下降 20.7%，降至 3.06 萬億美元，標誌着自 2022 年第二季度以來最糟糕的季度下滑。</p>
<p>與此同時，比特幣 [BTC] 價格比崩盤前的 12.2 萬美元低 27%，第四季度的投資回報率為-20%，這是自 2018 年以來比特幣最糟糕的季度表現。但究竟是什麼催化了這一崩潰？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/glassnode-studio_btc-total-supply-held-by-long-term-holders-btc.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/glassnode-studio_btc-total-supply-held-by-long-term-holders-btc.png"/></p>
<p>來源：Glassnode</p>
<p>最初，一系列宏觀因素引發了拋售。</p>
<p>美中關税緊張、MSCI 爭議、MSTR 審查、聯邦政府停擺以及美聯儲數據黑暗期都壓制了風險偏好，使零售投資者感到恐慌，並引發了廣泛的去槓桿化。</p>
<p>但這不僅僅是宏觀因素的問題。</p>
<p>早期的持有者拋售了大量頭寸，老鯨魚和新鯨魚也紛紛拋售。</p>
<p>綜合來看，這就像一次協調的鯨魚撤退，減少了長期持有者持有的比特幣供應量，約為 18 萬個幣。</p>
<h2><strong>比特幣鯨魚利用期貨從恐懼中獲利</strong></h2>
<p>歷史上，當零售投資者恐慌時，鯨魚往往會出手。</p>
<p>在 2022 年的週期中，比特幣從約 6.6 萬美元跌至 4.2 萬美元，持有 100-10,000 BTC 的錢包累計了約 67,000 BTC，當時價值約 34.4 億美元。這就是教科書式的 “在恐懼中買入”。</p>
<p>然而，最近的鯨魚拋售考驗了加密貨幣的去中心化故事，因為少數大型持有者繼續影響市場方向。結果？在期貨市場上的戰略押注，放大了短期波動性。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/1-12.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/1-12.png"/></p>
<p>來源：Alphractal</p>
<p>簡單來説，與其在下跌時買入，一些鯨魚卻從崩盤中獲利。例如，Hypurrscan 指出，一位鯨魚在拋售後僅十天就開設了一個價值 2.35 億美元的 10 倍比特幣空頭頭寸。</p>
<p>一個月後，另一位分析師也指出了類似的舉動。</p>
<p>如上圖所示，比特幣鯨魚與零售投資者的差距躍升至綠色區域，表明鯨魚要麼在減少多頭頭寸，要麼在提高空頭頭寸。</p>
<p>這是否意味着底部仍然遙不可及？</p>
<h2><strong>在下跌中買入：鯨魚如何塑造年末趨勢</strong></h2>
<p>十二月正處於一個關鍵的轉折點。</p>
<p>在 2025 年下半年，比特幣連續三次創下歷史新高，但它們之間的淨差異不足 5%。這表明在高位的買入壓力較弱，後續跟進短暫。</p>
<p>鑑於這種情況，比特幣鯨魚傾向於做空並不令人驚訝。</p>
<p>然而，比特幣和瑞波幣 [XRP] 的鏈上指標顯示鯨魚流出急劇上升，暗示重新定位可能會影響年末的動量。</p>
<p>這反過來又指向了 “在恐懼中買入” 的策略。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/2-4.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/2-4.png"/></p>
<p>來源：CryptoQuant</p>
<p>值得注意的是，瑞波幣的鯨魚流出在十一月達到了 1.16 億 XRP，與其在 2.20 美元附近的橫盤走勢相吻合。同樣，持有超過 1,000 BTC 的錢包數量也大幅增加。</p>
<p>綜合來看（戰略退出、槓桿清算和重新積累信號），這一局面類似於一次 “健康” 的重置，比特幣鯨魚可能將 85,000 至 90,000 美元區間視為強有力的入場區。</p>
<p>因此，隨着宏觀不確定性減弱，近期爭議降温，以及下次 FOMC 會議（降息概率上升）僅在 10 天后召開，十二月可能會在聰明投資者中開啓新的動能。</p>
<p>在這種背景下，鯨魚流出看起來像是一次戰略性迴歸風險。</p>
<hr/>
<h2><strong>最後思考</strong></h2>
<ul>
<li><em>比特幣鯨魚的戰略退出和槓桿清算重置了市場結構，為積累創造了條件。</em></li>
<li><em>比特幣和瑞波幣的鯨魚流出信號表明風險迴歸，暗示年末動量可能會隨着宏觀壓力的減弱而轉變。</em></li>
</ul>

<p>比特幣鯨魚正在為 12 月做準備，此前 10 月的崩盤暴露了市場集中度。這次崩盤是由宏觀因素和鯨魚的協調性拋售引發的，導致了比特幣的大規模拋售。鯨魚們現在正在利用期貨，並顯示出重新積累的信號，這暗示着年末可能出現動量轉變。隨着宏觀壓力的減弱和戰略性鯨魚流出表明風險迴歸，12 月可能會出現新的動量</p>

<p>On paper, digital assets represent the apex of “decentralization.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從表面上看，數字資產代表了 “去中心化” 的巔峯。</p>
</div><p>But does that really play out in practice? The October crash was a hard reset for crypto investors — billions were flushed out in liquidations, leaving HODLers deep underwater. The trigger? A “coordinated” whale exit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但這在實踐中真的如此嗎？十月的崩盤對加密投資者來説是一次嚴峻的重置——數十億資金在清算中被抹去，留下了深陷困境的持有者。觸發因素？一次 “協調” 的鯨魚撤退。</p>
</div><p>In that light, the crash exposed how concentrated the market still is. Even so, “buy the fear” still works as a bottom signal. And as November wraps up, Bitcoin whales appear to be leaning back into that playbook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從這個角度來看，崩盤暴露了市場仍然高度集中。儘管如此，“在恐懼中買入” 仍然作為底部信號有效。隨着十一月的結束，比特幣鯨魚似乎又開始迴歸這一策略。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Q4 shake-up: When macro meets Bitcoin whale pressure</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>第四季度動盪：當宏觀經濟遇上比特幣鯨魚壓力</strong></h2>
</div><p>To understand the current market, it helps to take a step back.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>要理解當前市場，退一步看會有所幫助。</p>
</div><p>We’re over halfway through Q4, and the October-November crashes are still leaving their mark. The TOTAL crypto market cap has dropped 20.7% to $3.06 trillion, marking the worst quarterly decline since Q2 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我們已經過了第四季度的一半，十月和十一月的崩盤仍在留下痕跡。總加密市場市值已下降 20.7%，降至 3.06 萬億美元，標誌着自 2022 年第二季度以來最糟糕的季度下滑。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, Bitcoin [BTC] sits 27% below its pre-crash $122k level, posting a -20% Q4 ROI, which makes this BTC’s worst quarterly bleed since 2018. But what exactly catalyzed this breakdown?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，比特幣 [BTC] 價格比崩盤前的 12.2 萬美元低 27%，第四季度的投資回報率為-20%，這是自 2018 年以來比特幣最糟糕的季度表現。但究竟是什麼催化了這一崩潰？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/glassnode-studio_btc-total-supply-held-by-long-term-holders-btc.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/glassnode-studio_btc-total-supply-held-by-long-term-holders-btc.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Glassnode</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：Glassnode</p>
</div><p>Initially, a mix of macro factors sparked the sell-off.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最初，一系列宏觀因素引發了拋售。</p>
</div><p>U.S.–China tariff tensions, MSCI controversy, MSTR scrutiny, the federal shutdown, and a Fed data blackout all crushed risk appetite, leaving retail investors panicked and triggering widespread deleveraging.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美中關税緊張、MSCI 爭議、MSTR 審查、聯邦政府停擺以及美聯儲數據黑暗期都壓制了風險偏好，使零售投資者感到恐慌，並引發了廣泛的去槓桿化。</p>
</div><p>But this wasn’t just about macro.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但這不僅僅是宏觀因素的問題。</p>
</div><p>Satoshi-era HODLers offloaded sizable positions, and both old and new whales also dumped.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>早期的持有者拋售了大量頭寸，老鯨魚和新鯨魚也紛紛拋售。</p>
</div><p>Taken together, it unfolded like a coordinated whale exit, reducing the BTC supply held by LTHs by roughly 180,000 coins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>綜合來看，這就像一次協調的鯨魚撤退，減少了長期持有者持有的比特幣供應量，約為 18 萬個幣。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Bitcoin whales leverage futures to profit from fear</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>比特幣鯨魚利用期貨從恐懼中獲利</strong></h2>
</div><p>Historically, when retail panics, whales tend to step in.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>歷史上，當零售投資者恐慌時，鯨魚往往會出手。</p>
</div><p>In the 2022 cycle, BTC dropped from about $66k to $42k, and wallets holding 100-10,000BTC accumulated roughly 67,000 BTC, worth around $3.44billion at the time. This was the textbook “buy the fear.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2022 年的週期中，比特幣從約 6.6 萬美元跌至 4.2 萬美元，持有 100-10,000 BTC 的錢包累計了約 67,000 BTC，當時價值約 34.4 億美元。這就是教科書式的 “在恐懼中買入”。</p>
</div><p>Lately, though, the recent whale sell-off has tested crypto’s decentralization story, as a few large holders continue to sway market direction. The result? Strategic bets in futures markets, amplifying short-term volatility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，最近的鯨魚拋售考驗了加密貨幣的去中心化故事，因為少數大型持有者繼續影響市場方向。結果？在期貨市場上的戰略押注，放大了短期波動性。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/1-12.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/1-12.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Alphractal</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：Alphractal</p>
</div><p>Simply put, rather than buying the dip, some whales profited from the crash. Hypurrscan, for example, flagged a whale opening a 10x BTC short position worth $235 million just ten days after the sell-off.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>簡單來説，與其在下跌時買入，一些鯨魚卻從崩盤中獲利。例如，Hypurrscan 指出，一位鯨魚在拋售後僅十天就開設了一個價值 2.35 億美元的 10 倍比特幣空頭頭寸。</p>
</div><p>A month later, another analyst flagged a similar move.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一個月後，另一位分析師也指出了類似的舉動。</p>
</div><p>As the chart above shows, Bitcoin whale vs. retail delta jumped in the green band, suggesting whales are either cutting long positions or tweaking shorts higher compared to retail.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如上圖所示，比特幣鯨魚與零售投資者的差距躍升至綠色區域，表明鯨魚要麼在減少多頭頭寸，要麼在提高空頭頭寸。</p>
</div><p>Does this mean the bottom is still far off?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這是否意味着底部仍然遙不可及？</p>
</div><h2><strong>Buy the dip: How whales are shaping year-end trends</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>在下跌中買入：鯨魚如何塑造年末趨勢</strong></h2>
</div><p>December is starting at a key inflection point.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>十二月正處於一個關鍵的轉折點。</p>
</div><p>In the second half of 2025, BTC has hit three back-to-back all-time highs, yet the net difference across them is under 5%. This shows that buying pressure at the top is weak, keeping follow-through short.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 年下半年，比特幣連續三次創下歷史新高，但它們之間的淨差異不足 5%。這表明在高位的買入壓力較弱，後續跟進短暫。</p>
</div><p>Given this setup, Bitcoin whales leaning into shorts isn’t surprising.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鑑於這種情況，比特幣鯨魚傾向於做空並不令人驚訝。</p>
</div><p>However, on-chain metrics for both BTC and Ripple [XRP] show a sharp jump in whale outflows, suggesting that renewed positioning could shape year-end momentum.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，比特幣和瑞波幣 [XRP] 的鏈上指標顯示鯨魚流出急劇上升，暗示重新定位可能會影響年末的動量。</p>
</div><p>In turn, it points back to the “buy the fear” playbook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這反過來又指向了 “在恐懼中買入” 的策略。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/2-4.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/2-4.png"/></p>
<p>Source: CryptoQuant</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：CryptoQuant</p>
</div><p>Notably, XRP whale outflows totaled 116 million XRP through November, lining up with its sideways action around the $2.20 band. Likewise, wallets holding over 1,000 BTC have shot higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，瑞波幣的鯨魚流出在十一月達到了 1.16 億 XRP，與其在 2.20 美元附近的橫盤走勢相吻合。同樣，持有超過 1,000 BTC 的錢包數量也大幅增加。</p>
</div><p>Taken together (the strategic exits, the leverage flush, and renewed accumulation signals), the setup resembles a “healthy” reset, with Bitcoin whales likely targeting the $85k–$90k range as a strong entry zone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>綜合來看（戰略退出、槓桿清算和重新積累信號），這一局面類似於一次 “健康” 的重置，比特幣鯨魚可能將 85,000 至 90,000 美元區間視為強有力的入場區。</p>
</div><p>Hence, with macro FUD fading, recent controversies cooling off, and the next FOMC meeting (with rising rate-cut odds) just 10 days away, December could open with fresh momentum among smart investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，隨着宏觀不確定性減弱，近期爭議降温，以及下次 FOMC 會議（降息概率上升）僅在 10 天后召開，十二月可能會在聰明投資者中開啓新的動能。</p>
</div><p>In this context, whale outflows look like a strategic rotation back into risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這種背景下，鯨魚流出看起來像是一次戰略性迴歸風險。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2><strong>Final Thoughts</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>最後思考</strong></h2>
</div><ul>
<li><em>Bitcoin whale strategic exits and leverage flushes have reset market structure, creating the setup for accumulation.</em></li>
<li><em>Renewed whale outflows across BTC and XRP signal a shift back into risk, suggesting year-end momentum may turn as macro pressure fades.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>比特幣鯨魚的戰略退出和槓桿清算重置了市場結構，為積累創造了條件。</em></li>
<li><em>比特幣和瑞波幣的鯨魚流出信號表明風險迴歸，暗示年末動量可能會隨着宏觀壓力的減弱而轉變。</em></li>
</ul>
</div>

從恐慌到佈局：比特幣巨鯨如何為十二月進行佈局