<p>（重複之前的欄目，文本沒有變化）</p>
<p>作者：安迪·霍姆</p>
<p>倫敦，12 月 1 日（路透社）——中國資助並建設了印度尼西亞的鎳工業，在十年內將該國轉變為全球最大的鎳生產國。</p>
<p>但現在，中國並不確定是否需要這麼多鎳。中國的電動車製造商正在逐漸轉向不含鎳的電池。</p>
<p>印度尼西亞從地下開採出的越來越多的鎳並不是用於電動車電池工廠，而是進入了倫敦金屬交易所的倉庫。</p>
<p>全球精煉鎳的交易所庫存從 2023 年 1 月的 54,000 公噸激增至 366,000 公噸，相當於去年全球使用量的約 10%。</p>
<p>過剩的重量抑制了鎳的波動性，鎳的價格在 2022 年 LME 交易暫停時達到了頂峯。今年大部分時間價格都在低位徘徊。</p>
<p>印度尼西亞的鎳行業仍在增長，因為該國追求成為電動車強國的雄心，但有一個非常現實的風險，即它在一個其最大客户逐漸冷淡的電池金屬上押注過多。</p>
<h3>你想要更多鎳嗎？</h3>
<p>“請多開採鎳，” 這是埃隆·馬斯克在 2020 年對礦業界的號召。特斯拉（TSLA.O）首席執行官擔心，無法滿足預計將來自電動車電池行業的爆炸性需求增長。</p>
<p>印度尼西亞及其中國運營商如願以償。</p>
<p>該國的礦產產量從 2020 年的 78 萬噸激增至 2024 年的 230 萬噸。其全球供應份額在同一時期內從 30% 上升至 70%。</p>
<p>中國對印度尼西亞巨型鎳儲備的第一波投資主要集中在不鏽鋼上，這仍然是鎳的最大消費領域。</p>
<p>大量礦石被運往中國，然後在印度尼西亞於 2020 年禁止出口未加工礦石後，貿易轉向鎳生鐵。</p>
<p>第二波投資則主要集中在鎳作為電池金屬。受到印度尼西亞政府的鼓勵，建設下游加工能力，印度尼西亞的運營商現在生產一系列產品，如鎳精礦、混合氫氧化物甚至精煉金屬。</p>
<p>大多數中間產品被送往中國，進一步加工成鎳硫酸鹽，這是一種用於電動車電池的形式。</p>
<h3>電池革命</h3>
<p>這本來是計劃。</p>
<p>問題在於，鎳在中國電動車製造商中逐漸失寵，他們越來越多地使用不含鎳或其他高價原料（如鈷）的電池。</p>
<p>磷酸鐵鋰（LFP）電池已經存在很長時間，但直到最近的共識是，它們無法為除小型城市車輛之外的任何其他用途提供足夠的動力。</p>
<p>中國電池製造商如寧德時代（300750.SZ）打破了這一神話，開發出越來越強大的 LFP 產品。該公司最近推出了最新的神行 Pro 電池，具有 758 公里的續航里程和超快充電能力。</p>
<p>LFP 電池比其他電池化學品更便宜、更安全，已經在全球最大的市場——中國市場中佔據了主導地位。隨着中國電動車製造商加大出口力度，它在全球市場中的份額也在不斷增長。</p>
<p>對鎳的電池需求仍在上升，但主要是因為全球電動車市場仍在快速擴張。根據諮詢公司 Adamas Intelligence 的數據，9 月份每輛新售出車輛所使用的鎳量同比僅增長 1%，而鋰的增長則為 7%。</p>
<h3>最後救命稻草的市場</h3>
<p>這種電池化學品的轉變導致中國加工商從生產鎳硫酸鹽轉向生產可以交付給最後救命稻草市場的精煉金屬。</p>
<p>截至 2023 年 8 月，LME 儲存系統中沒有中國品牌的鎳。到 10 月底，數量已達到 173,000 噸，佔總擔保庫存的 70%。</p>
<p>印度尼西亞的金屬也直接運往 LME 倉庫，上個月註冊了 11,300 噸。</p>
<p>不僅僅是 LME。過剩供應也滲透到上海期貨交易所的倉庫中。40,782 噸的庫存是自 2018 年以來的最高水平。</p>
<p>庫存的上升使價格保持在生產成本的底線，麥格理銀行計算的生產成本約為每噸 15,000 美元。</p>
<p>LME 三個月期金屬（CMNI3）甚至難以維持這一水平，11 月份跌至每噸 14,330 美元，為自 4 月以來的最低點。</p>
<h3>大賭注</h3>
<p>印度尼西亞政府已顯示出希望減緩其鎳行業的快速擴張的跡象。</p>
<p>但沒有人告訴其礦工或加工商，仍然大多是中國人。麥格理計算，預計到 2030 年，另一個百萬噸的高壓酸浸煉油能力將會增加。</p>
<p>除非採取更強有力的剎車，否則該銀行預計印度尼西亞的過度生產將導致全球至少五年的過剩。</p>
<p>國際能源署同意這一觀點，預計市場將僅在 2030 年以後進入供應赤字。</p>
<p>到那時，LME 倉庫中可能會堆積一座鎳山。</p>
<p>印度尼西亞正在冒險，賭需求最終會趕上並吸收任何庫存過剩。但這最終是一個賭注，即鎳將繼續作為核心電池原料。</p>
<p>即使如此，這也是一個很大的假設，考慮到電池行業的變化速度，印度尼西亞的鎳買家主要將是歐洲或美國而非中國。</p>
<p>鎳化學品在西方電動車市場仍占主導地位，而中國最近對 LFP 技術出口的限制則意外地給鎳帶來了推動。</p>
<p>但西方買家可能會比中國同行更加挑剔環境和碳足跡，這對印度尼西亞的煤電鎳行業來説是個問題。</p>
<p>印度尼西亞的鎳資源民族主義激勵了許多其他礦產資源豐富的國家，希望保留更多增值的資產。</p>
<p>但印尼現在陷入了一種不同類型的資源陷阱，其命運與中國及其對鎳電池日益減弱的需求緊密相連。</p>
<p>安迪·霍姆是路透社的專欄作家。所表達的觀點僅代表他本人。喜歡這篇專欄嗎？請查看路透社開放興趣（ROI），獲取關於市場和金融的發人深省、數據驅動的評論。在 LinkedIn 和 X 上關注 ROI。</p>
<p>印尼鎳的激增提升了全球交易所的股票</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4oejUoZ?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4oejUoZ"/></p>
<p>印尼鎳生產的崛起</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3KjrnFx?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3KjrnFx"/></p>
<p>中國鎳正大量湧入倫敦金屬交易所的倉庫</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3Ktv0Zt?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3Ktv0Zt"/></p>
<p>（編輯：簡·哈維）</p>
<p>)</p>

寧德時代

<p>中國逐漸放棄鎳化學電池的轉變正在影響印度尼西亞的鎳產業，該產業因中國投資而迅速增長。儘管印度尼西亞雄心勃勃地希望成為電動車（EV）強國，但由於中國製造商更青睞更便宜、更安全的磷酸鐵鋰（LFP）電池，電動車電池對鎳的需求正在下降。這一轉變導致鎳出現過剩，影響了全球價格和庫存。印度尼西亞的持續擴張面臨過剩風險，預計到 2030 年之前僅會出現供應短缺</p>

<p>(Repeats earlier column with no changes to the text)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（重複之前的欄目，文本沒有變化）</p>
</div><p>By Andy Home</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：安迪·霍姆</p>
</div><p>LONDON, Dec 1 (Reuters) - China financed and built Indonesia’s nickel industry, transforming the country into the world’s largest producer in the space of a decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>倫敦，12 月 1 日（路透社）——中國資助並建設了印度尼西亞的鎳工業，在十年內將該國轉變為全球最大的鎳生產國。</p>
</div><p>But now China is not so sure it needs all that nickel. Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers are pivoting away from nickel-chemistry batteries.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但現在，中國並不確定是否需要這麼多鎳。中國的電動車製造商正在逐漸轉向不含鎳的電池。</p>
</div><p>Ever more of what Indonesia digs out of the ground is destined not for an EV battery plant but rather a London Metal Exchange warehouse.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印度尼西亞從地下開採出的越來越多的鎳並不是用於電動車電池工廠，而是進入了倫敦金屬交易所的倉庫。</p>
</div><p>Global exchange inventories of refined nickel have ballooned from 54,000 metric tons in January 2023 to 366,000 tons, equivalent to around 10% of global usage last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球精煉鎳的交易所庫存從 2023 年 1 月的 54,000 公噸激增至 366,000 公噸，相當於去年全球使用量的約 10%。</p>
</div><p>The weight of surplus has tamed nickel’s wildness, which peaked with the suspension of LME trading in 2022. Prices have spent most of this year churning at rock-bottom levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>過剩的重量抑制了鎳的波動性，鎳的價格在 2022 年 LME 交易暫停時達到了頂峯。今年大部分時間價格都在低位徘徊。</p>
</div><p>Indonesia’s nickel sector is still growing as the country pursues its ambition of becoming an EV powerhouse, but there is a very real risk it has bet too much on a battery metal that its biggest customer is growing cold on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印度尼西亞的鎳行業仍在增長，因為該國追求成為電動車強國的雄心，但有一個非常現實的風險，即它在一個其最大客户逐漸冷淡的電池金屬上押注過多。</p>
</div><h3>YOU WANT MORE NICKEL?</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>你想要更多鎳嗎？</h3>
</div><p>“Please mine more nickel,” was Elon Musk’s rallying call to the mining industry back in 2020. The head of Tesla (TSLA.O) was concerned there wouldn’t be enough of the stuff to meet what was expected to be explosive demand growth from the EV battery sector.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“請多開採鎳，” 這是埃隆·馬斯克在 2020 年對礦業界的號召。特斯拉（TSLA.O）首席執行官擔心，無法滿足預計將來自電動車電池行業的爆炸性需求增長。</p>
</div><p>Indonesia and its Chinese operators duly obliged.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印度尼西亞及其中國運營商如願以償。</p>
</div><p>The country’s mined production surged from 780,000 tons in 2020 to 2.3 million tons in 2024. Its share of global supply rose from 30% to 70% over the same period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該國的礦產產量從 2020 年的 78 萬噸激增至 2024 年的 230 萬噸。其全球供應份額在同一時期內從 30% 上升至 70%。</p>
</div><p>The first wave of Chinese investment in Indonesia’s giant nickel reserves was all about stainless steel, still the largest consuming sector for nickel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中國對印度尼西亞巨型鎳儲備的第一波投資主要集中在不鏽鋼上，這仍然是鎳的最大消費領域。</p>
</div><p>Huge amounts of ore were shipped to China and then, when Indonesia banned the export of unprocessed ore in 2020, the trade shifted to nickel pig iron.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大量礦石被運往中國，然後在印度尼西亞於 2020 年禁止出口未加工礦石後，貿易轉向鎳生鐵。</p>
</div><p>The second wave has been all about nickel as a battery metal. Spurred on by the Indonesian government to build downstream processing capacity, Indonesian operators now churn out a range of products such as matte, mixed hydroxide and even refined metal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第二波投資則主要集中在鎳作為電池金屬。受到印度尼西亞政府的鼓勵，建設下游加工能力，印度尼西亞的運營商現在生產一系列產品，如鎳精礦、混合氫氧化物甚至精煉金屬。</p>
</div><p>Most of the intermediates are sent to China for further processing into nickel sulphate, a form that is used in EV batteries.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大多數中間產品被送往中國，進一步加工成鎳硫酸鹽，這是一種用於電動車電池的形式。</p>
</div><h3>BATTERY REVOLUTION</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>電池革命</h3>
</div><p>Well, that was the plan anyway.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這本來是計劃。</p>
</div><p>The problem is that nickel has fallen out of favour with Chinese EV manufacturers, who are increasingly using batteries without any nickel or other high-price inputs such as cobalt.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>問題在於，鎳在中國電動車製造商中逐漸失寵，他們越來越多地使用不含鎳或其他高價原料（如鈷）的電池。</p>
</div><p>Lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries have been around for a long time, but the consensus until recently was that they could never deliver enough power for anything other than small run-around city vehicles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>磷酸鐵鋰（LFP）電池已經存在很長時間，但直到最近的共識是，它們無法為除小型城市車輛之外的任何其他用途提供足夠的動力。</p>
</div><p>Chinese battery makers such as CATL (300750.SZ) have shattered that myth, developing ever more powerful LFP products. The company recently unveiled its latest Shenxing Pro battery, which boasts a 758-km driving range and super-fast charging.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中國電池製造商如寧德時代（300750.SZ）打破了這一神話，開發出越來越強大的 LFP 產品。該公司最近推出了最新的神行 Pro 電池，具有 758 公里的續航里程和超快充電能力。</p>
</div><p>The LFP battery is cheaper and safer than other battery chemistries and has already grabbed a dominant share of the Chinese market, the world’s largest. As Chinese EV makers ramp up exports, it is also taking a growing slice of the global market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>LFP 電池比其他電池化學品更便宜、更安全，已經在全球最大的市場——中國市場中佔據了主導地位。隨着中國電動車製造商加大出口力度，它在全球市場中的份額也在不斷增長。</p>
</div><p>Battery demand for nickel is still rising, but largely because the global EV market is still expanding so fast. In terms of the amount of nickel deployed per newly sold vehicle, usage was up just 1% year-on-year in September, compared with 7% for lithium, according to consultancy Adamas Intelligence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對鎳的電池需求仍在上升，但主要是因為全球電動車市場仍在快速擴張。根據諮詢公司 Adamas Intelligence 的數據，9 月份每輛新售出車輛所使用的鎳量同比僅增長 1%，而鋰的增長則為 7%。</p>
</div><h3>MARKETS OF LAST RESORT</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>最後救命稻草的市場</h3>
</div><p>The result of this shift in battery chemistry is Chinese processors switching from producing nickel sulphate to churning out refined metal that can be delivered to the market of last resort.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種電池化學品的轉變導致中國加工商從生產鎳硫酸鹽轉向生產可以交付給最後救命稻草市場的精煉金屬。</p>
</div><p>There was no Chinese-brand nickel in the LME storage system as recently as August 2023. The tally at the end of October was 173,000 tons, representing 70% of total warranted inventory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 2023 年 8 月，LME 儲存系統中沒有中國品牌的鎳。到 10 月底，數量已達到 173,000 噸，佔總擔保庫存的 70%。</p>
</div><p>Indonesian metal has also been shipped straight to LME warehouses, with 11,300 tons registered with the exchange last month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印度尼西亞的金屬也直接運往 LME 倉庫，上個月註冊了 11,300 噸。</p>
</div><p>It’s not just the LME. Excess supply has been seeping into Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses as well. Stocks of 40,782 tons are the highest they’ve been since 2018.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不僅僅是 LME。過剩供應也滲透到上海期貨交易所的倉庫中。40,782 噸的庫存是自 2018 年以來的最高水平。</p>
</div><p>Rising inventory is keeping prices pinned to the production-cost floor, calculated at around $15,000 per ton by Macquarie Bank.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>庫存的上升使價格保持在生產成本的底線，麥格理銀行計算的生產成本約為每噸 15,000 美元。</p>
</div><p>LME three-month metal (CMNI3) has been struggling to hold even that level, with a November dip to $14,330 per ton, its lowest point since April.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>LME 三個月期金屬（CMNI3）甚至難以維持這一水平，11 月份跌至每噸 14,330 美元，為自 4 月以來的最低點。</p>
</div><h3>BIG BET</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>大賭注</h3>
</div><p>The Indonesian government has shown signs of wanting to slow the breakneck expansion of its nickel sector.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印度尼西亞政府已顯示出希望減緩其鎳行業的快速擴張的跡象。</p>
</div><p>But no-one’s told its miners or processors, still mostly Chinese. Macquarie calculates that another million tons of high-pressure acid-leaching refinery capacity could ramp up by 2030.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但沒有人告訴其礦工或加工商，仍然大多是中國人。麥格理計算，預計到 2030 年，另一個百萬噸的高壓酸浸煉油能力將會增加。</p>
</div><p>Unless the brakes are applied more forcefully, the bank expects Indonesian overproduction to result in at least five more years of global oversupply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除非採取更強有力的剎車，否則該銀行預計印度尼西亞的過度生產將導致全球至少五年的過剩。</p>
</div><p>The International Energy Agency agrees, projecting the market will only move into a supply deficit from 2030 onwards.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>國際能源署同意這一觀點，預計市場將僅在 2030 年以後進入供應赤字。</p>
</div><p>By which time, there could be a mountain of nickel sitting in LME warehouses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到那時，LME 倉庫中可能會堆積一座鎳山。</p>
</div><p>Indonesia is gambling that demand will eventually catch up and absorb any inventory overhang. But it’s ultimately a bet that nickel will remain a core battery input.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印度尼西亞正在冒險，賭需求最終會趕上並吸收任何庫存過剩。但這最終是一個賭注，即鎳將繼續作為核心電池原料。</p>
</div><p>Even if it does, which is a big assumption given the rate of change in the battery industry, Indonesia’s nickel buyers will be mainly European or American rather than Chinese.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使如此，這也是一個很大的假設，考慮到電池行業的變化速度，印度尼西亞的鎳買家主要將是歐洲或美國而非中國。</p>
</div><p>Nickel chemistries are still dominant in Western EV markets and China’s recent restrictions on LFP technology exports have given nickel an unexpected booster.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鎳化學品在西方電動車市場仍占主導地位，而中國最近對 LFP 技術出口的限制則意外地給鎳帶來了推動。</p>
</div><p>But Western buyers are likely to be much more fussy about environmental and carbon footprint than their Chinese peers, which is a problem for Indonesia’s coal-powered nickel sector.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但西方買家可能會比中國同行更加挑剔環境和碳足跡，這對印度尼西亞的煤電鎳行業來説是個問題。</p>
</div><p>Indonesia’s nickel resource nationalism has inspired many other mineral-rich countries wanting to keep a greater value-added share of their assets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印度尼西亞的鎳資源民族主義激勵了許多其他礦產資源豐富的國家，希望保留更多增值的資產。</p>
</div><p>But Indonesia is now caught in a resource trap of a different kind, its fortunes inextricably tied to China and its waning appetite for nickel batteries.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但印尼現在陷入了一種不同類型的資源陷阱，其命運與中國及其對鎳電池日益減弱的需求緊密相連。</p>
</div><p>Andy Home is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI) for thought-provoking, data-driven commentary on markets and finance. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, opens new tab and X, opens new tab.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>安迪·霍姆是路透社的專欄作家。所表達的觀點僅代表他本人。喜歡這篇專欄嗎？請查看路透社開放興趣（ROI），獲取關於市場和金融的發人深省、數據驅動的評論。在 LinkedIn 和 X 上關注 ROI。</p>
</div><p>Indonesian nickel surge lifts global exchange stocks</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印尼鎳的激增提升了全球交易所的股票</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4oejUoZ" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/4oejUoZ"/></p>
<p>The rise and rise of Indonesian nickel production</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印尼鎳生產的崛起</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3KjrnFx" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/3KjrnFx"/></p>
<p>Chinese nickel is surging into LME warehouses</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中國鎳正大量湧入倫敦金屬交易所的倉庫</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3Ktv0Zt" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/3Ktv0Zt"/></p>
<p>(Editing by Jan Harvey)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（編輯：簡·哈維）</p>
</div><p>)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>)</p>
</div>

投資回報率 - 中國推動了印尼的鎳業繁榮，但也可能導致其崩潰：安迪·霍姆