<p>ZCash 在加密市場相對大盤資產中價格表現極為突出。它的上漲始於九月份，隨着隱私敍事的升温而加速。十月份的漲勢愈發強勁。</p>
<p>從九月份的低點 38.69 美元到十一月份的高點 750 美元，這一輪漲幅高達 1,838.5%。在不到 10 周的時間裏，這相當於 18 倍的回報。</p>
<p>十一月第一週的高峰，加上市場普遍情緒的下滑和比特幣 [BTC] 失去 10 萬美元的支撐，可能結束了 Zcash[ZEC] 的牛市。</p>
<p>從技術角度來看，可以認為這只是一個回調階段。</p>
<p>AMBCrypto 在十一月的一份報告中強調了在 100% 斐波那契擴展水平上獲利了結的重要性。這些水平是基於之前週期的波動點繪製的。</p>
<p>過去兩週價格下跌 53% 驗證了之前的預測。接下來會發生什麼？</p>
<h2>長期結構與短期看跌</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/ZCash-1-day-Chart.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/ZCash-1-day-Chart.png"/></p>
<p>來源：TradingView 上的 ZEC/USDT</p>
<p>1 天時間框架內出現了向看跌的內部轉變。</p>
<p>470 美元的高低點在近十天前被突破。最近跌破 424 美元的波動低點，突顯了回調階段的開始。這也警告了潛在的下行趨勢。</p>
<p>然而，當前上漲的斐波那契回調水平支持了漲勢尚未結束的觀點。78.6% 的回調水平尚未被突破。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/ZCash-1-hour-Chart.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/ZCash-1-hour-Chart.png"/></p>
<p>來源：TradingView 上的 ZEC/USDT</p>
<p>小時圖未顯示出大幅反彈的潛力。在這裏，結構同樣看跌。400-420 美元區域存在不平衡，可能作為供應區。</p>
<h2>ZCash：拼湊技術面</h2>
<p>在這兩個時間框架中，MFI 顯示空頭佔據主導地位。動量和資金流向對賣方有利。日線圖顯示 MFI 在最近幾天轉向看跌，跌破 20。</p>
<p>小時圖顯示 ZCash 很可能會很快經歷更多損失。</p>
<p>日線圖上的 OBV 並未出現大幅下滑，但在小時時間框架上正在下滑。這支持了回調階段的論點。</p>
<h2>關鍵支撐和阻力水平</h2>
<p>400-420 美元是一個強短期阻力位。315-321 美元的支撐正在被捍衞，但很可能很快會失守。若日線收盤低於 315 美元，將是賣出的信號。</p>
<p>預計將滑落至下一個斐波那契回調支撐位 197 美元。</p>
<hr/>
<h2>最後思考</h2>
<ul>
<li><em>交易者可以基於斐波那契回調水平和 200 美元水平的重要性，保持長期看漲的觀點。</em></li>
<li><em>投資者在比特幣似乎正在轉向熊市的時刻，必須謹慎持有 ZEC。</em></li>
</ul>
<p><strong>免責聲明：所提供的信息不構成財務、投資、交易或其他類型的建議，僅代表作者的觀點</strong></p>

<p>ZCash 在兩週內經歷了 53% 的劇烈價格下跌，此前曾出現爆炸性的反彈。此次下跌被視為回調階段，技術指標顯示可能會進一步下跌。關鍵阻力位在 400 美元至 420 美元之間，而 315 美元至 321 美元的支撐位面臨威脅。若跌破 315 美元，可能會出現更多拋售，潛在支撐位在 197 美元。交易者可能會保持長期看漲的觀點，但在比特幣的熊市轉變中需保持謹慎</p>

<p>ZCash has been an extreme outlier in price performance among the relatively large-cap assets in the crypto market. Its run began in September, as the privacy narrative gathered steam. The rally intensified in October.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ZCash 在加密市場相對大盤資產中價格表現極為突出。它的上漲始於九月份，隨着隱私敍事的升温而加速。十月份的漲勢愈發強勁。</p>
</div><p>Measured from September’s low at $38.69 to the November high of $750, the rally was a whopping 1,838.5%. This was an 18-fold return in under 10 weeks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從九月份的低點 38.69 美元到十一月份的高點 750 美元，這一輪漲幅高達 1,838.5%。在不到 10 周的時間裏，這相當於 18 倍的回報。</p>
</div><p>The peak in the first week of November, combined with the market-wide sentiment slump and Bitcoin’s [BTC] loss of the $100k level, might have ended Zcash’s [ZEC] bull run.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>十一月第一週的高峰，加上市場普遍情緒的下滑和比特幣 [BTC] 失去 10 萬美元的支撐，可能結束了 Zcash[ZEC] 的牛市。</p>
</div><p>From a technical perspective, it can be argued that this was only a retracement phase.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從技術角度來看，可以認為這只是一個回調階段。</p>
</div><p>An AMBCrypto report from November stressed the importance of profit-taking at the 100% Fibonacci extension level. Those levels were plotted based on the previous cycle’s swing points.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AMBCrypto 在十一月的一份報告中強調了在 100% 斐波那契擴展水平上獲利了結的重要性。這些水平是基於之前週期的波動點繪製的。</p>
</div><p>A 53% price drop in the past fortnight vindicated the earlier predictions. What can come next?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>過去兩週價格下跌 53% 驗證了之前的預測。接下來會發生什麼？</p>
</div><h2>Long-term structure vs. short-term bearishness</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>長期結構與短期看跌</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/ZCash-1-day-Chart.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/ZCash-1-day-Chart.png"/></p>
<p>Source: ZEC/USDT on TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：TradingView 上的 ZEC/USDT</p>
</div><p>The 1-day timeframe saw an internal shift towards bearishness.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>1 天時間框架內出現了向看跌的內部轉變。</p>
</div><p>The higher low at $470 was breached nearly ten days ago. The recent downturn below the swing low at $424 highlighted the onset of the retracement phase. It also warned of a potential downtrend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>470 美元的高低點在近十天前被突破。最近跌破 424 美元的波動低點，突顯了回調階段的開始。這也警告了潛在的下行趨勢。</p>
</div><p>However, the Fibonacci retracement levels of the current run supported the idea that the rally was not over. The 78.6% retracement level has not been breached yet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，當前上漲的斐波那契回調水平支持了漲勢尚未結束的觀點。78.6% 的回調水平尚未被突破。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/ZCash-1-hour-Chart.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/ZCash-1-hour-Chart.png"/></p>
<p>Source: ZEC/USDT on TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：TradingView 上的 ZEC/USDT</p>
</div><p>The hourly chart did not show potential for a sizeable bounce. Here, too, the structure was bearish. The $400-$420 region had an imbalance and can act as a supply zone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>小時圖未顯示出大幅反彈的潛力。在這裏，結構同樣看跌。400-420 美元區域存在不平衡，可能作為供應區。</p>
</div><h2>ZCash: Piecing together the technicals</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>ZCash：拼湊技術面</h2>
</div><p>In both the timeframes, the MFI showed bears were in control. Momentum and capital flow were in favor of the sellers. The daily chart showed the MFI shift to bearishness in recent days, with a drop below 20.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這兩個時間框架中，MFI 顯示空頭佔據主導地位。動量和資金流向對賣方有利。日線圖顯示 MFI 在最近幾天轉向看跌，跌破 20。</p>
</div><p>The hourly chart showed that ZCash was highly likely to experience more losses soon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>小時圖顯示 ZCash 很可能會很快經歷更多損失。</p>
</div><p>The OBV was not in a sizeable slump on the daily chart, but it was sliding lower on the hourly timeframe. This supported the retracement phase argument.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日線圖上的 OBV 並未出現大幅下滑，但在小時時間框架上正在下滑。這支持了回調階段的論點。</p>
</div><h2>Key support and resistance levels</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>關鍵支撐和阻力水平</h2>
</div><p>The $400-$420 was a strong short-term resistance. The $315-$321 support is being defended, but is likely to be lost soon. A daily session close below $315 would be a signal to sell.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>400-420 美元是一個強短期阻力位。315-321 美元的支撐正在被捍衞，但很可能很快會失守。若日線收盤低於 315 美元，將是賣出的信號。</p>
</div><p>A slide to the next Fibonacci retracement support at $197 can be expected.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>預計將滑落至下一個斐波那契回調支撐位 197 美元。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2>Final Thoughts</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>最後思考</h2>
</div><ul>
<li><em>Traders can maintain a long-term bullish outlook, based on the Fibonacci retracement levels and the importance of the $200 level.</em></li>
<li><em>Investors must be careful holding on to ZEC at a time when Bitcoin seems to be transitioning to a bear market.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>交易者可以基於斐波那契回調水平和 200 美元水平的重要性，保持長期看漲的觀點。</em></li>
<li><em>投資者在比特幣似乎正在轉向熊市的時刻，必須謹慎持有 ZEC。</em></li>
</ul>
</div><p><strong>Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice and is solely the writer’s opinion</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>免責聲明：所提供的信息不構成財務、投資、交易或其他類型的建議，僅代表作者的觀點</strong></p>
</div>

ZCash 在兩週內暴跌 53%——這是否意味着一個爆炸性週期的結束？