<ul>
<li>想知道 TJX Companies 在經歷了長時間的上漲後是否仍然是一個便宜的投資，或者大部分輕鬆獲利的機會是否已經消失？這份分析將幫助你判斷當前價格是否真的與價值相符。</li>
<li>過去一週，該股下跌了約 1.6%，但這是在過去一個月上漲 7.1% 和年初至今強勁回報 23.8% 的基礎上發生的，過去一年回報為 21.7%，三年回報接近 97.1%，五年回報為 147.0%。</li>
<li>最近的頭條新聞突顯了 TJX 在折扣零售領域的持續韌性，以及其在消費者支出模式變化時吸引注重價值的購物者的能力。這進一步強化了該商業模式適應波動經濟環境的觀點。投資者正在關注 TJX 如何在更廣泛的零售趨勢演變中平衡客流增長、商品銷售和庫存管理。</li>
<li>儘管如此，TJX 在我們的估值檢查中目前僅得分 0/6，這可能會讓只關注股價圖表的人感到驚訝。在接下來的部分中，我們將解析不同的估值方法對該股的看法，並在文章結束時暗示一種更為穩健的思考其公允價值的方法。</li>
</ul>
<p>TJX Companies 在我們的估值檢查中僅得分 0/6。查看我們在完整估值分析中發現的其他警示信號。</p>
<h3>方法 1：TJX Companies 折現現金流（DCF）分析</h3>
<p>折現現金流模型通過預測企業未來能夠產生的現金流，並將這些現金流折現回今天，來估算企業的價值。對於 TJX Companies，該模型採用基於現金流預測和長期增長衰退的兩階段自由現金流到股東的方式。</p>
<p>TJX 在過去十二個月產生了約 44.9 億美元的自由現金流，分析師預計這一數字將逐漸上升，Simply Wall St 在初始分析師預測的基礎上進行了外推。到 2030 年，自由現金流預計將達到約 65.5 億美元，2026 年至 2035 年之間的中間年度預測也將納入計算。這些未來現金流被折現回現值，以估算今天的股權價值。</p>
<p>基於此，DCF 模型得出的內在價值約為每股 101.05 美元。與當前股價相比，這意味着該股大約被高估 48.5%，表明預期的現金流增長已經在價格中反映出來。</p>
<p><strong>結果：被高估</strong></p>
<p>我們的折現現金流（DCF）分析表明，TJX Companies 可能被高估 48.5%。發現 935 只被低估的股票，或創建自己的篩選器以尋找更好的價值機會。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/13f73f29-1a6d-4b58-92ee-614214f4998d/chart/dcf?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1706" height="760" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/13f73f29-1a6d-4b58-92ee-614214f4998d/chart/dcf"/></p>
<p>截至 2025 年 12 月的 TJX 折現現金流</p>
<p>前往我們公司報告的估值部分，瞭解我們如何得出 TJX Companies 的公允價值的更多細節。</p>
<h3>方法 2：TJX Companies 市盈率對比</h3>
<p>對於像 TJX 這樣的盈利公司，市盈率（PE）是衡量投資者是否為每一美元的當前收益支付合理價格的有用方式。一般來説，增長更強、風險感知較低的企業可以合理化更高的市盈率，而增長緩慢或風險較高的公司則往往以較低的倍數交易。</p>
<p>TJX 當前的市盈率約為 32.6 倍，遠高於專業零售行業平均的約 18.1 倍和更廣泛的同行平均的約 20.2 倍。Simply Wall St 進一步使用其專有的公允比率，估算市場可能會根據 TJX 的收益增長特徵、利潤率、規模、行業和風險因素通常賦予 TJX 的市盈率。對於 TJX，該公允比率約為 22.1 倍，明顯低於當前股票交易的水平。由於該公允比率是針對公司量身定製的，因此提供了比簡單的同行或行業比較更細緻的基準。</p>
<p>將公允比率 22.1 倍與實際市盈率 32.6 倍進行比較，表明該股的交易價格高於其基本面所能合理化的水平。</p>
<p><strong>結果：被高估</strong></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/13f73f29-1a6d-4b58-92ee-614214f4998d/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1640" height="650" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/13f73f29-1a6d-4b58-92ee-614214f4998d/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry"/></p>
<p>截至 2025 年 12 月的 NYSE:TJX 市盈率</p>
<p>市盈率講述了一個故事，但如果真正的機會在其他地方呢？發現 1441 家內部人士正在大舉押注於爆炸性增長的公司。</p>
<h3>提升你的決策能力：選擇你的 TJX Companies 故事</h3>
<p>我們之前提到過，還有一種更好的理解估值的方法，因此讓我們向你介紹敍事，這是一種將你對 TJX Companies 故事的看法與其未來收入、收益、利潤率和公允價值背後的數字聯繫起來的簡單方式。</p>
<p>敍事是你自己的投資故事，你闡述你認為將推動 TJX 客流、門店增長和盈利能力的因素，然後將這些信念與具體的財務預測和公允價值估算聯繫起來，而不是僅僅依賴靜態倍數。</p>
<p>在 Simply Wall St，敍事存在於社區頁面，旨在易於使用。它們旨在幫助投資者將自己的敍事公允價值與當前市場價格進行比較，並在新的收益、指導或新聞流入時自動更新。</p>
<p>例如，一個 TJX 的敍事可能是謹慎的，如果你認為增長和利潤率將減弱，則假設公允價值接近每股 90 美元。另一個更樂觀的敍事可能會在你相信全球擴張、強勁的折扣需求和利潤率改善將持續較長時間的情況下，合理化接近每股 164 美元的公允價值。</p>
<p>你認為 TJX Companies 的故事還有更多內容嗎？前往我們的社區看看其他人怎麼説！</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/13f73f29-1a6d-4b58-92ee-614214f4998d/chart/community-fair-value?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/13f73f29-1a6d-4b58-92ee-614214f4998d/chart/community-fair-value"/></p>
<p>截至 2025 年 12 月的 NYSE:TJX 社區公允價值</p>
<p><em>這篇來自 Simply Wall St 的文章是一般性的。<strong>我們僅基於歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論，採用無偏見的方法，我們的文章不應被視為財務建議。</strong> 它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的推薦，也未考慮您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是為您提供以基本數據驅動的長期分析。請注意，我們的分析可能未考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St 在提到的任何股票中沒有持倉。</em></p>

TJX零售

<p>本文評估了 TJX 公司的股票，質疑其在強勁的多年增長後當前的價值。儘管折扣零售的勢頭依然強勁，但根據貼現現金流（DCF）和市盈率（PE）分析，TJX 被認為是高估的。DCF 模型顯示其高估幅度為 48.5%，而市盈率則表明其相較於行業平均水平存在溢價。建議投資者考慮將 TJX 的增長和盈利能力與其估值聯繫起來的敍述</p>

<ul>
<li>Wondering if TJX Companies is still a bargain after its long run, or if most of the easy money has already been made? This breakdown will help you decide whether the current price really matches the value.</li>
<li>The stock has slipped about 1.6% over the last week, but that comes after a solid 7.1% gain in the past month and strong longer term returns of 23.8% year to date and 21.7% over the last year, with almost 97.1% over three years and 147.0% over five years.</li>
<li>Recent headlines have highlighted TJX's continued resilience in off price retail and its ability to draw value focused shoppers even as consumer spending patterns shift. This reinforces the idea that the business model is built for choppy economic conditions. Investors are watching how TJX balances traffic growth, merchandising, and inventory discipline as broader retail trends evolve.</li>
<li>Despite that strength, TJX currently scores just 0/6 on our valuation checks, which might surprise anyone looking only at the share price chart. In the next sections we will unpack what different valuation approaches say about the stock and hint at an even more robust way to think about its fair value by the end of the article.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>想知道 TJX Companies 在經歷了長時間的上漲後是否仍然是一個便宜的投資，或者大部分輕鬆獲利的機會是否已經消失？這份分析將幫助你判斷當前價格是否真的與價值相符。</li>
<li>過去一週，該股下跌了約 1.6%，但這是在過去一個月上漲 7.1% 和年初至今強勁回報 23.8% 的基礎上發生的，過去一年回報為 21.7%，三年回報接近 97.1%，五年回報為 147.0%。</li>
<li>最近的頭條新聞突顯了 TJX 在折扣零售領域的持續韌性，以及其在消費者支出模式變化時吸引注重價值的購物者的能力。這進一步強化了該商業模式適應波動經濟環境的觀點。投資者正在關注 TJX 如何在更廣泛的零售趨勢演變中平衡客流增長、商品銷售和庫存管理。</li>
<li>儘管如此，TJX 在我們的估值檢查中目前僅得分 0/6，這可能會讓只關注股價圖表的人感到驚訝。在接下來的部分中，我們將解析不同的估值方法對該股的看法，並在文章結束時暗示一種更為穩健的思考其公允價值的方法。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>TJX Companies scores just 0/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TJX Companies 在我們的估值檢查中僅得分 0/6。查看我們在完整估值分析中發現的其他警示信號。</p>
</div><h3>Approach 1: TJX Companies Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>方法 1：TJX Companies 折現現金流（DCF）分析</h3>
</div><p>A Discounted Cash Flow model estimates what a business is worth by projecting the cash it can generate in the future and then discounting those cash flows back to today. For TJX Companies, the model uses a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach based on cash flow projections and a longer term fade in growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>折現現金流模型通過預測企業未來能夠產生的現金流，並將這些現金流折現回今天，來估算企業的價值。對於 TJX Companies，該模型採用基於現金流預測和長期增長衰退的兩階段自由現金流到股東的方式。</p>
</div><p>TJX generated trailing twelve month free cash flow of about $4.49 billion, and analysts expect this to rise gradually over time, with Simply Wall St extrapolating beyond the initial analyst horizon. By 2030, free cash flow is projected to reach roughly $6.55 billion, with intermediate yearly forecasts between 2026 and 2035 also feeding into the calculation. These future cash flows are discounted back to a present value in $ to estimate what the equity is worth today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TJX 在過去十二個月產生了約 44.9 億美元的自由現金流，分析師預計這一數字將逐漸上升，Simply Wall St 在初始分析師預測的基礎上進行了外推。到 2030 年，自由現金流預計將達到約 65.5 億美元，2026 年至 2035 年之間的中間年度預測也將納入計算。這些未來現金流被折現回現值，以估算今天的股權價值。</p>
</div><p>On this basis, the DCF model arrives at an intrinsic value of about $101.05 per share. Compared with the current share price, this implies the stock is roughly 48.5% overvalued, indicating that much of the anticipated cash flow growth already appears to be reflected in the price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基於此，DCF 模型得出的內在價值約為每股 101.05 美元。與當前股價相比，這意味着該股大約被高估 48.5%，表明預期的現金流增長已經在價格中反映出來。</p>
</div><p><strong>Result: OVERVALUED</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>結果：被高估</strong></p>
</div><p>Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests TJX Companies may be overvalued by 48.5%. Discover 935 undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我們的折現現金流（DCF）分析表明，TJX Companies 可能被高估 48.5%。發現 935 只被低估的股票，或創建自己的篩選器以尋找更好的價值機會。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/13f73f29-1a6d-4b58-92ee-614214f4998d/chart/dcf" alt="" original-src="https://images.simplywall.st/company/13f73f29-1a6d-4b58-92ee-614214f4998d/chart/dcf"/></p>
<p>TJX Discounted Cash Flow as at Dec 2025</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 2025 年 12 月的 TJX 折現現金流</p>
</div><p>Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for TJX Companies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>前往我們公司報告的估值部分，瞭解我們如何得出 TJX Companies 的公允價值的更多細節。</p>
</div><h3>Approach 2: TJX Companies Price vs Earnings</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>方法 2：TJX Companies 市盈率對比</h3>
</div><p>For profitable companies like TJX, the price to earnings (PE) ratio is a useful way to gauge whether investors are paying a reasonable price for each dollar of current earnings. In general, businesses with stronger, more reliable growth and lower perceived risk can justify a higher PE, while slower growing or riskier names tend to trade on lower multiples.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於像 TJX 這樣的盈利公司，市盈率（PE）是衡量投資者是否為每一美元的當前收益支付合理價格的有用方式。一般來説，增長更強、風險感知較低的企業可以合理化更高的市盈率，而增長緩慢或風險較高的公司則往往以較低的倍數交易。</p>
</div><p>TJX currently trades on a PE of about 32.6x, which is well above both the Specialty Retail industry average of roughly 18.1x and the broader peer group average of around 20.2x. Simply Wall St goes a step further with its proprietary Fair Ratio, which estimates what PE the market might typically assign to TJX given its earnings growth profile, margins, size, industry and risk factors. For TJX, that Fair Ratio comes out at about 22.1x, notably below where the shares trade today. Because this Fair Ratio is tailored to the company, it offers a more nuanced benchmark than simple peer or industry comparisons.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TJX 當前的市盈率約為 32.6 倍，遠高於專業零售行業平均的約 18.1 倍和更廣泛的同行平均的約 20.2 倍。Simply Wall St 進一步使用其專有的公允比率，估算市場可能會根據 TJX 的收益增長特徵、利潤率、規模、行業和風險因素通常賦予 TJX 的市盈率。對於 TJX，該公允比率約為 22.1 倍，明顯低於當前股票交易的水平。由於該公允比率是針對公司量身定製的，因此提供了比簡單的同行或行業比較更細緻的基準。</p>
</div><p>Comparing the Fair Ratio of 22.1x with the actual PE of 32.6x suggests the stock is trading at a premium to what its fundamentals justify.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>將公允比率 22.1 倍與實際市盈率 32.6 倍進行比較，表明該股的交易價格高於其基本面所能合理化的水平。</p>
</div><p><strong>Result: OVERVALUED</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>結果：被高估</strong></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/13f73f29-1a6d-4b58-92ee-614214f4998d/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry" alt="" original-src="https://images.simplywall.st/company/13f73f29-1a6d-4b58-92ee-614214f4998d/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry"/></p>
<p>NYSE:TJX PE Ratio as at Dec 2025</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 2025 年 12 月的 NYSE:TJX 市盈率</p>
</div><p>PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1441 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市盈率講述了一個故事，但如果真正的機會在其他地方呢？發現 1441 家內部人士正在大舉押注於爆炸性增長的公司。</p>
</div><h3>Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your TJX Companies Narrative</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>提升你的決策能力：選擇你的 TJX Companies 故事</h3>
</div><p>Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple way to connect your view of the TJX Companies story with the numbers behind its future revenue, earnings, margins and fair value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我們之前提到過，還有一種更好的理解估值的方法，因此讓我們向你介紹敍事，這是一種將你對 TJX Companies 故事的看法與其未來收入、收益、利潤率和公允價值背後的數字聯繫起來的簡單方式。</p>
</div><p>A Narrative is your own investment storyline, where you spell out what you think will drive TJX traffic, store growth and profitability, then link those beliefs to a concrete financial forecast and a fair value estimate instead of relying only on static multiples.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>敍事是你自己的投資故事，你闡述你認為將推動 TJX 客流、門店增長和盈利能力的因素，然後將這些信念與具體的財務預測和公允價值估算聯繫起來，而不是僅僅依賴靜態倍數。</p>
</div><p>On Simply Wall St, Narratives live in the Community page and are designed to be easy to use. They aim to help investors compare their Narrative Fair Value to the current market price, and then automatically update as new earnings, guidance or news flows in.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 Simply Wall St，敍事存在於社區頁面，旨在易於使用。它們旨在幫助投資者將自己的敍事公允價值與當前市場價格進行比較，並在新的收益、指導或新聞流入時自動更新。</p>
</div><p>For example, one TJX Narrative might be cautious, assuming a fair value closer to about $90 per share if you think growth and margins will fade. Another more optimistic Narrative could justify a fair value near $164 per share if you believe global expansion, strong off-price demand and margin improvements will stay stronger for longer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，一個 TJX 的敍事可能是謹慎的，如果你認為增長和利潤率將減弱，則假設公允價值接近每股 90 美元。另一個更樂觀的敍事可能會在你相信全球擴張、強勁的折扣需求和利潤率改善將持續較長時間的情況下，合理化接近每股 164 美元的公允價值。</p>
</div><p>Do you think there's more to the story for TJX Companies? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你認為 TJX Companies 的故事還有更多內容嗎？前往我們的社區看看其他人怎麼説！</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/13f73f29-1a6d-4b58-92ee-614214f4998d/chart/community-fair-value" alt="" original-src="https://images.simplywall.st/company/13f73f29-1a6d-4b58-92ee-614214f4998d/chart/community-fair-value"/></p>
<p>NYSE:TJX Community Fair Values as at Dec 2025</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 2025 年 12 月的 NYSE:TJX 社區公允價值</p>
</div><p><em>This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. <strong>We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice.</strong> It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>這篇來自 Simply Wall St 的文章是一般性的。<strong>我們僅基於歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論，採用無偏見的方法，我們的文章不應被視為財務建議。</strong> 它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的推薦，也未考慮您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是為您提供以基本數據驅動的長期分析。請注意，我們的分析可能未考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St 在提到的任何股票中沒有持倉。</em></p>
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在經歷多年強勁增長和堅韌的低價勢頭後，TJX 是否仍然具有吸引力