<p>比特幣（<strong>BTC-USD</strong>）正處於一個決策時刻，短期交易者正在面臨整個當前市場週期中最嚴重的未實現損失。那些在一到三個月前購買比特幣的交易者，已經在超過兩週的時間裏承受着 20% 到 25% 的損失，標誌着一個 “極限痛苦” 的時刻。</p>
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<p>儘管零售投資者出現了拋售，但機構需求顯示出復甦的跡象。比特幣 ETF 開始轉為正值，連續五天錄得淨流入，表明市場可能接近局部底部。</p>
<h2><strong>極限痛苦可能意味着積累機會</strong></h2>
<p>嚴重的未實現損失正在影響最活躍的短期交易者羣體。根據 CryptoQuant 分析師 Darkfost 的説法，一旦這一羣體的大部分人出現拋售，這在最近幾周已經顯現，通常意味着積累的機會變得有趣。</p>
<p>這一羣體將繼續處於虧損狀態，直到比特幣價格回升至約 $113,692 的實現價格。然而，包括 Grayscale 在內的一些主要金融機構仍然持樂觀態度，認為當前的回調指向 2026 年復甦前的局部底部。</p>
<h2><strong>ETF 賣壓僅佔總量的 3%</strong></h2>
<p>儘管之前市場對現貨比特幣 ETF 持有者的大規模拋售表示擔憂，但分析確認這些基金僅佔總賣壓的一小部分。根據 <em>Bloomberg</em> ETF 分析師 Eric Balchunas 的説法，ETF 僅對總賣壓的最大貢獻為 3%。</p>
<p>這些數據反駁了機構流出導致近期價格崩潰的説法。分析表明，絕大多數的賣壓來自其他來源，包括現在面臨嚴重未實現損失的短期零售交易者。</p>
<h2><strong>機構流動轉為正值</strong></h2>
<p>關鍵的發展是機構資金流動的穩定。比特幣 ETF 已開始從艱難的 11 月中恢復，該月是其有記錄以來的第二差月份。</p>
<p>這些 ETF 在週二錄得 5800 萬美元的淨正流入，標誌着連續第五天的正流入。這一點非常重要，因為比特幣現在的交易價格已回升至 $89,600 的流動加權成本基礎之上，這意味着平均機構持有者不再面臨賬面損失。</p>
<p>總而言之，短期比特幣交易者現在面臨週期中最嚴重的未實現損失。這與比特幣 ETF 連續五天的流入相結合，強烈表明市場正達到零售投資者的拋售和機構的積累時刻。ETF 流入的反彈有助於確認機構的賣壓微乎其微。這為潛在的局部底部和復甦鋪平了道路。</p>
<p>截至撰寫時，比特幣的價格為 $92,918.01。</p>

<p>比特幣正經歷 “峯值痛苦”，短期交易者面臨嚴重的未實現損失，而機構需求則顯示出復甦的跡象。比特幣 ETF 已連續五天錄得淨流入，暗示可能出現局部底部。儘管存在擔憂，ETF 的賣壓卻很小，僅佔總銷售的 3%。機構資金流動已轉為正值，表明市場可能正在復甦。比特幣目前的交易價格為 92,918.01 美元</p>

<p>Bitcoin ( <strong>BTC-USD</strong>) has reached a moment of decision as short-term traders are now grappling with the steepest unrealized losses of the entire current market cycle. Traders who bought Bitcoin between one and three months ago have been sitting on losses ranging from 20% to 25% for over two weeks, marking a moment of &#34;peak pain.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特幣（<strong>BTC-USD</strong>）正處於一個決策時刻，短期交易者正在面臨整個當前市場週期中最嚴重的未實現損失。那些在一到三個月前購買比特幣的交易者，已經在超過兩週的時間裏承受着 20% 到 25% 的損失，標誌着一個 “極限痛苦” 的時刻。</p>
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</div><p>Despite this retail capitulation, institutional demand is showing signs of recovery. Bitcoin ETFs have started turning positive, recording five consecutive days of net inflows, suggesting the market may be nearing a local bottom.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管零售投資者出現了拋售，但機構需求顯示出復甦的跡象。比特幣 ETF 開始轉為正值，連續五天錄得淨流入，表明市場可能接近局部底部。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Peak Pain Could Signal Accumulation Opportunity</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>極限痛苦可能意味着積累機會</strong></h2>
</div><p>The steep unrealized losses are hitting the most active cohort of short-term traders. According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, once a large portion of this group has capitulated. This has been seen in recent weeks and it usually signals that the opportunity to accumulate becomes interesting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>嚴重的未實現損失正在影響最活躍的短期交易者羣體。根據 CryptoQuant 分析師 Darkfost 的説法，一旦這一羣體的大部分人出現拋售，這在最近幾周已經顯現，通常意味着積累的機會變得有趣。</p>
</div><p>This cohort will remain underwater until the Bitcoin price trades back above its realized price of about $113,692. However, some major financial institutions, including Grayscale, remain optimistic, suggesting the current drawdown points to a local bottom ahead of a recovery in 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一羣體將繼續處於虧損狀態，直到比特幣價格回升至約 $113,692 的實現價格。然而，包括 Grayscale 在內的一些主要金融機構仍然持樂觀態度，認為當前的回調指向 2026 年復甦前的局部底部。</p>
</div><h2><strong>ETF Selling Pressure Was Only 3% Of Total</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>ETF 賣壓僅佔總量的 3%</strong></h2>
</div><p>Despite previous market concern over large-scale sales from spot Bitcoin ETF holders, analysis confirms these funds were only a small fraction of the total selling pressure. According to <em>Bloomberg</em> ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, ETFs have been responsible for a maximum of only 3% of the total selling tops.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管之前市場對現貨比特幣 ETF 持有者的大規模拋售表示擔憂，但分析確認這些基金僅佔總賣壓的一小部分。根據 <em>Bloomberg</em> ETF 分析師 Eric Balchunas 的説法，ETF 僅對總賣壓的最大貢獻為 3%。</p>
</div><p>This data pushes back on the narrative that institutional outflows drove the recent price collapse. The analysis suggests that the vast majority of selling pressure came from other sources, including the short-term retail traders now sitting on deep unrealized losses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些數據反駁了機構流出導致近期價格崩潰的説法。分析表明，絕大多數的賣壓來自其他來源，包括現在面臨嚴重未實現損失的短期零售交易者。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Institutional Flow Turns Positive</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>機構流動轉為正值</strong></h2>
</div><p>The crucial development is the stabilization of institutional money flow. Bitcoin ETFs have started recovering from a difficult November, which marked their second-worst month on record.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>關鍵的發展是機構資金流動的穩定。比特幣 ETF 已開始從艱難的 11 月中恢復，該月是其有記錄以來的第二差月份。</p>
</div><p>The ETFs recorded $58 million worth of net positive inflows on Tuesday, marking the fifth consecutive day of positive inflows. This is significant because Bitcoin is now trading back above the $89,600 flow-weighted cost basis for ETF buyers, meaning the average institutional holder is no longer sitting on paper losses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些 ETF 在週二錄得 5800 萬美元的淨正流入，標誌着連續第五天的正流入。這一點非常重要，因為比特幣現在的交易價格已回升至 $89,600 的流動加權成本基礎之上，這意味着平均機構持有者不再面臨賬面損失。</p>
</div><p>To sum up, short-term Bitcoin traders are now facing the steepest unrealized losses of the cycle. This is coupled with five consecutive days of Bitcoin ETF inflows, which strongly suggests the market is reaching a point of retail capitulation and institutional accumulation. The rebound in ETF flows helps confirm that the institutional selling pressure was minimal. This clears the path for a potential local bottom and recovery.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>總而言之，短期比特幣交易者現在面臨週期中最嚴重的未實現損失。這與比特幣 ETF 連續五天的流入相結合，強烈表明市場正達到零售投資者的拋售和機構的積累時刻。ETF 流入的反彈有助於確認機構的賣壓微乎其微。這為潛在的局部底部和復甦鋪平了道路。</p>
</div><p>At the time of writing, Bitcoin is sitting at $92,918.01.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至撰寫時，比特幣的價格為 $92,918.01。</p>
</div>

比特幣發出 “峯值痛苦” 警告，隨着聰明資金押注本地底部，ETF 轉為積極