<p>自推出以來，山寨幣一直在努力塑造自己的身份。</p>
<p>值得注意的是，2025 年終於將這種分離展現得淋漓盡致。儘管山寨幣季節指數呈下降趨勢，但仍有少數名稱成功與比特幣 [BTC] 脱鈎，暗示市場結構正在緩慢轉變。</p>
<p>以太坊 [ETH] 是一個典型的例子。</p>
<p>當然，在第四季度，它的表現比 BTC 低了 1.17%，但 ETH 卻在不斷進行重要的升級。在這種情況下，真正的問題是：這種分歧在我們邁向 2026 年時是否會開始帶來回報？</p>
<h2><strong>市場輪換突顯以太坊的潛力</strong></h2>
<p>市場正在發生潛在的變化。</p>
<p>在連續兩個季度的紅色蠟燭之後，比特幣的市場主導地位（BTC.D）已跌破 60% 的阻力位，目前正在努力重新奪回該水平。</p>
<p>與此同時，山寨幣季節指數（ASI）在撰寫時已從 43 降至 37。</p>
<p>通常，ASI 的下降會伴隨着 BTC 的上漲，因為投資者會湧向主導資產。然而這一次，兩者都在一起下跌，表明市場的表現超出了其通常的模式。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/BTC.D_2025-12-06_13-22-51.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/BTC.D_2025-12-06_13-22-51.png"/></p>
<p>來源：TradingView (BTC.D)</p>
<p>根據 AMBCrypto 的説法，這一變化突顯了 ETH 的內在實力。</p>
<p>儘管市場的大部分資金仍在觀望，但 ETH.D 在 12 月開局時上漲了 2%。更重要的是，ETH/BTC 比率上升了 2.08%，進一步強化了以太坊正在塑造相對強勢的論點。</p>
<p>這有什麼重要性？這種分歧可能表明投資者行為向強大的第一層區塊鏈發生了更廣泛的轉變。如果鏈上指標一致，這種輪換是否會推動以太坊在 2026 年相對於比特幣的上漲？</p>
<h2><strong>儘管情緒滯後，以太坊的供應緊密鎖定</strong></h2>
<p>ETH 質押正在發出強烈的長期承諾信號。</p>
<p>鏈上指標證實了這一點：ETH 的總質押價值（TVS）在 3600 萬以上保持穩定，即使在更廣泛的市場恐慌中。簡單來説，投資者繼續鎖定更多 ETH 以獲取質押獎勵和收益。</p>
<p>此外，以太坊的交易所儲備持續減少。自第四季度開始，近 120 萬 ETH 已從交易所轉出，表明持有者的強烈長期承諾。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/1-1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/1-1.png"/></p>
<p>來源：Glassnode</p>
<p>值得注意的是，與比特幣相比，這種韌性變得更加明顯。如上圖所示，只有 8.84% 的以太坊仍在交易所上，約為 BTC 的 14.8% 的一半。</p>
<p>這顯然表明 ETH 持有者中存在長期的 “持有和質押” 心態。簡單來説，以太坊鎖定的供應比例遠高於比特幣，從而在市場上創造了更緊密的流動性。</p>
<p>在這種背景下，以太坊在圖表上的韌性並不是偶然。即使在更廣泛的市場恐慌中，這種信念來自於基本面。因此，問題出現了：這種分歧是否最終會開始帶來回報？</p>
<h2><strong>鏈上指標信號 ETH 與 BTC 的分歧</strong></h2>
<p>對於以太坊來説，2025 年將圍繞兩個主要升級展開。</p>
<p>第一個是 Pectra 升級，隨後是 Fusaka 升級。鏈上指標顯示了影響：每週交易量從 155 萬攀升至 166 萬，反映出網絡採用的增強。</p>
<p>在 ETH 的積累趨勢之上，這些升級顯然正在推動重要的鏈上活動。簡而言之，以太坊正在鞏固其作為主導第一層區塊鏈的地位，既有使用量也有長期鎖定的供應。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/ETHUSD_2025-12-06_14-50-26.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/ETHUSD_2025-12-06_14-50-26.png"/></p>
<p>來源：TradingView (ETH/USDT)</p>
<p>在這種情況下，2026 年的看漲前景似乎更為可能。</p>
<p>在技術層面，以太坊開始與比特幣產生分歧，得到了鏈上基本面如網絡參與度上升和積累趨勢收緊的支持。</p>
<p>在這種背景下，以太坊似乎處於有利位置，可以從網絡增長和資本輪換中受益，可能為明年相對於比特幣的持續超越奠定基礎。</p>
<hr/>
<h2><strong>最後的思考</strong></h2>
<ul>
<li><em>以太坊強勁的鏈上活動、質押增長和縮減的交易所儲備信號着網絡實力的增強和長期持有者的信念。</em></li>
<li><em>網絡升級、積累趨勢和緊密的流動性可能使 ETH 在市場輪換偏向強大的第一層區塊鏈時有可能超越 BTC。</em></li>
</ul>
<hr/>

ETHE

<p>本文探討了以太坊（ETH）在 2026 年前超越比特幣（BTC）的潛力，引用了關鍵市場變化和以太坊的強大基本面。儘管在第四季度以 1.17% 的幅度落後於 BTC，但以太坊的升級和市場輪動暗示了投資者行為的變化。以太坊的質押增長、交易所儲備減少以及網絡升級表明長期持有者的信心和網絡實力，這可能使 ETH 在市場輪動偏向強大的第一層區塊鏈時具備超越的潛力</p>

<p>Since launch, altcoins have been trying to carve out their own identity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自推出以來，山寨幣一直在努力塑造自己的身份。</p>
</div><p>Notably, 2025 is finally putting that separation on full display. Even with the Altcoin Season Index trending down, a handful of names are still managing to decouple from Bitcoin [BTC], hinting at a slow shift in market structure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，2025 年終於將這種分離展現得淋漓盡致。儘管山寨幣季節指數呈下降趨勢，但仍有少數名稱成功與比特幣 [BTC] 脱鈎，暗示市場結構正在緩慢轉變。</p>
</div><p>Ethereum [ETH] is a prime example.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以太坊 [ETH] 是一個典型的例子。</p>
</div><p>Sure, it underperformed BTC by 1.17% in Q4, but ETH has been stacking meaningful upgrades back-to-back. Against this setup, the real question is: Will this divergence finally start paying off as we head into 2026?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當然，在第四季度，它的表現比 BTC 低了 1.17%，但 ETH 卻在不斷進行重要的升級。在這種情況下，真正的問題是：這種分歧在我們邁向 2026 年時是否會開始帶來回報？</p>
</div><h2><strong>Market rotation highlights Ethereum’s potential</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>市場輪換突顯以太坊的潛力</strong></h2>
</div><p>There’s an underlying shift happening in the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場正在發生潛在的變化。</p>
</div><p>After two consecutive monthly red candles, Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) has fallen below the 60% resistance and is currently struggling to reclaim that level.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在連續兩個季度的紅色蠟燭之後，比特幣的市場主導地位（BTC.D）已跌破 60% 的阻力位，目前正在努力重新奪回該水平。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, the Altcoin Season Index (ASI) has dropped from 43 to 37 as of writing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，山寨幣季節指數（ASI）在撰寫時已從 43 降至 37。</p>
</div><p>Normally, a falling ASI would coincide with BTC surging as investors flock to the dominant asset. This time, however, both are trending down together,suggesting the market is acting outside its usual playbook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通常，ASI 的下降會伴隨着 BTC 的上漲，因為投資者會湧向主導資產。然而這一次，兩者都在一起下跌，表明市場的表現超出了其通常的模式。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/BTC.D_2025-12-06_13-22-51.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/BTC.D_2025-12-06_13-22-51.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView (BTC.D)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：TradingView (BTC.D)</p>
</div><p>According to AMBCrypto, this shift highlights ETH’s underlying strength.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 AMBCrypto 的説法，這一變化突顯了 ETH 的內在實力。</p>
</div><p>Even with much of the market’s capital remaining on the sidelines, ETH.D kicked off December with a 2% jump. What’s more, the ETH/BTC ratio rose 2.08%, reinforcing the thesis that Ethereum is carving out relative strength.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管市場的大部分資金仍在觀望，但 ETH.D 在 12 月開局時上漲了 2%。更重要的是，ETH/BTC 比率上升了 2.08%，進一步強化了以太坊正在塑造相對強勢的論點。</p>
</div><p>Why does this matter? This divergence could signal a broader shift in investor behavior toward strong Layer-1s. If on-chain metrics align, could this rotation push Ethereum higher versus Bitcoin in 2026?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這有什麼重要性？這種分歧可能表明投資者行為向強大的第一層區塊鏈發生了更廣泛的轉變。如果鏈上指標一致，這種輪換是否會推動以太坊在 2026 年相對於比特幣的上漲？</p>
</div><h2><strong>While sentiment lags, Ethereum’s supply is tightly locked</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>儘管情緒滯後，以太坊的供應緊密鎖定</strong></h2>
</div><p>ETH staking is signaling a strong long-term commitment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ETH 質押正在發出強烈的長期承諾信號。</p>
</div><p>On-chain metrics confirm this: ETH’s Total Value Staked (TVS) is holding steady well above 36 million, even amid broader market FUD. Put simply, investors are continuing to lock up more ETH for staking rewards and yield.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鏈上指標證實了這一點：ETH 的總質押價值（TVS）在 3600 萬以上保持穩定，即使在更廣泛的市場恐慌中。簡單來説，投資者繼續鎖定更多 ETH 以獲取質押獎勵和收益。</p>
</div><p>Adding to this, Ethereum’s Exchange Reserves keep shrinking. Since the start of Q4, nearly 1.2 million ETH have moved off exchanges, signaling a strong, long-term commitment from HOLDers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，以太坊的交易所儲備持續減少。自第四季度開始，近 120 萬 ETH 已從交易所轉出，表明持有者的強烈長期承諾。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/1-1.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/1-1.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Glassnode</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：Glassnode</p>
</div><p>Notably, the resilience becomes even more obvious when compared to Bitcoin. As the chart above shows, only 8.84% of Ethereum remains on exchanges, roughly half of BTC’s 14.8%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，與比特幣相比，這種韌性變得更加明顯。如上圖所示，只有 8.84% 的以太坊仍在交易所上，約為 BTC 的 14.8% 的一半。</p>
</div><p>This clearly points to a long-term “HODL and stake” mentality among ETH holders. Simply put, Ethereum is locking up a much higher share of its supply compared to Bitcoin, creating tighter liquidity in the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這顯然表明 ETH 持有者中存在長期的 “持有和質押” 心態。簡單來説，以太坊鎖定的供應比例遠高於比特幣，從而在市場上創造了更緊密的流動性。</p>
</div><p>In this context, Ethereum’s resilience on the charts isn’t a fluke. Even amid broader market FUD, this conviction is coming from the fundamentals. Hence, the question arises: Could this divergence finally start paying off?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這種背景下，以太坊在圖表上的韌性並不是偶然。即使在更廣泛的市場恐慌中，這種信念來自於基本面。因此，問題出現了：這種分歧是否最終會開始帶來回報？</p>
</div><h2><strong>On-chain metrics signal ETH divergence from BTC</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>鏈上指標信號 ETH 與 BTC 的分歧</strong></h2>
</div><p>For Ethereum, 2025 is shaping up to be around two major rollouts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於以太坊來説，2025 年將圍繞兩個主要升級展開。</p>
</div><p>The first was the Pectra upgrade, followed by the Fusaka upgrade. On-chain metrics show the impact: Weekly transactions have climbed from 1.55 million to 1.66 million MoM, reflecting stronger network adoption.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第一個是 Pectra 升級，隨後是 Fusaka 升級。鏈上指標顯示了影響：每週交易量從 155 萬攀升至 166 萬，反映出網絡採用的增強。</p>
</div><p>Layered on top of ETH’s accumulation trends, it’s clear these upgrades are driving meaningful on-chain activity. In short, Ethereum is reinforcing its position as a dominant L1, with both usage and long-term locked supply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 ETH 的積累趨勢之上，這些升級顯然正在推動重要的鏈上活動。簡而言之，以太坊正在鞏固其作為主導第一層區塊鏈的地位，既有使用量也有長期鎖定的供應。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/ETHUSD_2025-12-06_14-50-26.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/ETHUSD_2025-12-06_14-50-26.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView (ETH/USDT)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：TradingView (ETH/USDT)</p>
</div><p>Against this setup, a bullish 2026 is looking more likely.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這種情況下，2026 年的看漲前景似乎更為可能。</p>
</div><p>On the technical side, Ethereum is starting to diverge from Bitcoin, backed by on-chain fundamentals like rising network engagement and accumulation trends that are tightening liquid ETH supply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在技術層面，以太坊開始與比特幣產生分歧，得到了鏈上基本面如網絡參與度上升和積累趨勢收緊的支持。</p>
</div><p>In this context, Ethereum seems well-positioned to benefit from both network growth and capital rotation, potentially setting the stage for continued outperformance versus Bitcoin next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這種背景下，以太坊似乎處於有利位置，可以從網絡增長和資本輪換中受益，可能為明年相對於比特幣的持續超越奠定基礎。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2><strong>Final Thoughts</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>最後的思考</strong></h2>
</div><ul>
<li><em>Ethereum’s strong on-chain activity, staking growth, and shrinking Exchange Reserves signal increasing network strength and long-term holder conviction.</em></li>
<li><em>Network upgrades, accumulation trends, and tight liquidity could position ETH to potentially outperform BTC as market rotation favors strong Layer-1s.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>以太坊強勁的鏈上活動、質押增長和縮減的交易所儲備信號着網絡實力的增強和長期持有者的信念。</em></li>
<li><em>網絡升級、積累趨勢和緊密的流動性可能使 ETH 在市場輪換偏向強大的第一層區塊鏈時有可能超越 BTC。</em></li>
</ul>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div>

以太坊在 2026 年能否超越比特幣的表現？關鍵分歧顯示